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Coherent (COHR) Q3 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q3 FY26)· Information Technology· May 6, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Coherent Q3 FY26 — AI datacenter demand drives record revenue and a new growth inflection

Coherent has crossed into a faster growth phase as AI datacenter optical demand converts into record backlog and near-term shipments, with management framing the June quarter as a new inflection point and fiscal '27 growth set to exceed fiscal '26. The thesis now hinges on execution — ramping supply-constrained indium phosphide and new OCS/CPO/multi-rail platforms — rather than demand, which management calls exceptional with no signs of attenuation.

Highlights

5
  • Record revenue of $1.8B, up 7% sequentially and 21% YoY (pro forma +9% seq / +27% YoY excluding divested A&D and Munich businesses), with YoY growth accelerating vs the prior quarter

  • Datacenter & Communications reached 75% of total revenue and grew more than 40% YoY; within it data center revenue rose 13% seq / 37% YoY and Communications rose 16% seq / 60% YoY

  • Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 39.6% (+57 bps seq, +105 bps YoY) and non-GAAP operating margin rose to 20.3%, driving non-GAAP EPS of $1.41 (+9% seq, +55% YoY)

  • Cash balance rose to $3.0B (from $1.5B) after NVIDIA's $2B equity investment; debt leverage cut to 0.5x from 1.7x in Q2 and 2.1x a year ago after $162M of debt payments

  • Record bookings and backlog with order visibility now extending into calendar 2028 and customer LTAs reaching the end of the decade

Concerns

3
  • Industrial segment revenue declined modestly both sequentially and YoY on a pro forma basis, reflecting continued softness in parts of the broader industrial market

  • Industry-wide indium phosphide capacity remains the key constraint, with supply (not demand) the limiting factor on near-term shipments

  • Capital expenditures surged to $290M (from $154M in Q2 and $112M a year ago) and are guided to increase again sequentially in Q4, pressuring near-term free cash flow

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Q4 FY26 revenue
$1.91B-$2.05B
high materiality
High
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP gross margin
39%-41%
high materiality
High
Q4 FY26 total non-GAAP operating expenses
$360M-$380M
medium materiality
High
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP tax rate
18%-20%
low materiality
High
Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS
$1.52-$1.72
high materiality
High
Fiscal 2027 revenue growth rate
Above fiscal 2026 growth rate
high materiality
Medium
Q4 FY26 (June quarter) sequential revenue growth
Strong sequential growth / acceleration vs prior quarter
high materiality
High
Internal indium phosphide capacity doubling
Double internal indium phosphide output capacity
high materiality
High
Internal indium phosphide capacity (calendar 2027)
More than double internal indium phosphide capacity again
high materiality
Medium
Long-term non-GAAP gross margin target
Greater than 42%
high materiality
Medium
Q4 FY26 capital expenditures
Increase sequentially
medium materiality
High
800 gig transceiver revenue
Grow year-over-year in calendar 2026
medium materiality
Medium
Data center revenue growth (current quarter)
Further acceleration
high materiality
High
OCS (optical circuit switch) revenue
Grow this quarter and strong sequential growth over coming quarters
medium materiality
Medium
CPO (co-packaged optics) scale-out revenue
Begin ramping in second half of calendar 2026
high materiality
Medium
CPO (co-packaged optics) scale-up revenue
Begin ramping in second half of calendar 2027
high materiality
Low
Multi-rail systems revenue
Begin ramping in first half of calendar 2027
medium materiality
Low
Thermal solutions revenue (data center XPU cooling / thermoelectric generators)
Begin ramping in second half of calendar 2027
low materiality
Low
Industrial segment revenue
Improving demand to begin contributing to revenue growth in current quarter, with further sequential improvement through the balance of the calendar year
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Datacenter & Communications
Primary driver of company growth, with growth accelerating again this quarter. Data center strength is broad-based across multiple customers and product categories; Communications strength spans DCI/scale-across (ZR/ZR+), traditional telecom, and a components-to-systems portfolio. New growth vectors (OCS, CPO, multi-rail) layer on top.
Data center revenue: +13% QoQ, +37% YoY (second consecutive quarter of double-digit sequential growth)Communications revenue: +16% QoQ, +60% YoYSegment share of total company revenue: 75%
75% of total company revenue (~$1.35B implied)More than 40% YoYnot statedPrimary source of company gross margin expansion (both seq and YoY); driven by cost reductions, 6-inch InP yield, and pricing optimization
Industrial
Continued softness in parts of the broader industrial market, but encouraging signs of improvement — especially in semicap, where bookings rose meaningfully — expected to contribute to revenue growth in the current quarter and improve sequentially through the calendar year. Longer term, industrial materials tech (Thermadite, thermoelectric generators) is being repurposed for AI data center thermal/power applications.
Semiconductor capital equipment bookings: increased meaningfully
not stated (implied ~25% of total as remainder)Declined modestly YoY (pro forma)Declined modestly QoQBenefited from pricing optimization (contributor to company GM)

Orderbook & backlog

Backlog and bookings (orders) Record backlog and record bookings; bookings up substantially vs the prior quarter Q3 FY26 (as of 2026-03-31)

Another 'step function' increase in the order book; record level

Orders now extend into calendar 2028; customer LTAs extend to the end of the decade. Increasingly translating into near-term shipment/revenue as capacity expands; specific book-to-bill ratio and dollar backlog not disclosed.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) systemsexpansion
Co-packaged optics (CPO) solutionsroadmap
Multi-rail systems (Communications)roadmap
Data center thermal solutions (Thermadite XPU cooling & thermoelectric generators)roadmap
First transceivers with 6-inch indium phosphide componentsmilestone
400-gig-per-lane silicon photonics (3.2T)milestone
200-gig and 400-gig VCSELsroadmap

Deals & partnerships

NVIDIA Strategic partnership + equity investment + multiyear supply agreement (CPO) $2B equity investment (announced March 2, 2026); multibillion-dollar multiyear supply agreement Supply agreement extends through the end of the decade

Covers multiple CPO-related products and solutions. NVIDIA is Coherent's lead CPO customer; Sherman, TX facility will ramp CW laser production supporting the partnership. Initial scale-out CPO revenue H2 CY26, scale-up H2 CY27.

Multiple strategic customers (hyperscalers and system manufacturers) Long-term supply agreements (LTAs) Not disclosed individually; described as 'significant in size'; include upfront customer capex investment Multiyear demand commitments (some extending to end of the decade)

Each LTA typically has three parts: upfront customer capex investment ('skin in the game'), a Coherent supply commitment, and a minimum demand commitment. Spans both hyperscalers and system customers within Datacenter & Communications.

Munich, Germany product division (divested buyer unnamed) Divestiture

Sold in fiscal Q3; excluded from pro forma revenue growth figures.

Aerospace & Defense business (divested buyer unnamed) Divestiture

Portfolio pruning; referenced as one of the two divested businesses backed out of pro forma growth.

Capital programs

6-inch indium phosphide capacity expansion underway
Period spend: Company capex of $290M in Q3 FY26 (up from $154M in Q2 and $112M year-ago), focused on internal capacity; guided to increase again in Q4
Funding: Coherent capital expenditures plus upfront customer investments embedded in LTAs (customer 'skin in the game')
Start: Ramp underway; Texas (Sherman) first, then Sweden

Benefit:Roughly quadruples InP capacity over two years; 6-inch yields >4x devices at less than half the cost of 3-inch; EML/CW/PD yields all exceed 3-inch; ~half of internal InP capacity to be 6-inch by end of CY26

Highest-priority capacity program; the key constraint for Coherent and the industry. Directly tied to gross margin expansion and revenue growth acceleration; Sherman TX also key for ramping CW laser production for CPO including the NVIDIA partnership.

OCS (optical circuit switch) production capacity ramp underway
Period spend: not separately stated
Start: Bottleneck recently resolved; ramping now

Benefit:Rapid output ramp across two production facilities after resolving an internal-component bottleneck

Management dramatically improved internal component production, unlocking a faster OCS production ramp over the last month or two; expected to convert backlog into shipments.

SG&A efficiency / ERP consolidation program underway
Spent to date: Majority of the company now on a single ERP platform
Start: In progress

Benefit:SG&A leverage/efficiency (SG&A fell to 9.4% of revenue); low-cost regional shared services in G&A

Cost/productivity program driving G&A efficiency alongside the capacity build-out.

Risks & headwinds

Industrial market softness Q3 FY26; improvement expected to begin in Q4 FY26

Industrial revenue declined modestly both sequentially and YoY on a pro forma basis

Mitigation:Semiconductor capital equipment bookings increased meaningfully; expected to contribute to revenue growth in the current quarter and improve sequentially through the calendar year; longer-term AI-data-center thermal applications.

Indium phosphide capacity constraint (industry-wide) Ongoing; easing as capacity doubles a quarter early (June quarter) and more than doubles again by end CY27

Cited as the key constraint for Coherent and the industry; supply is the gating factor limiting near-term shipments (unquantified)

Mitigation:6-inch InP ramp (>4x devices at <half cost) across Texas, Sweden and Zurich; capacity allocated to highest-margin-dollar products.

Supply/production bottlenecks constraining new-product ramps (OCS) Recently resolved (last month or two)

Internal-component production had been pacing OCS capacity expansion (unquantified)

Mitigation:Dramatically improved internal component output; ramping across two facilities in parallel.

Rising capital intensity / capex step-up Q3 FY26 and continuing into Q4 FY26

Capex rose to $290M (from $154M in Q2 and $112M year-ago) and guided to increase again sequentially in Q4

Mitigation:Disciplined capital allocation; upfront customer investment in LTAs helps fund capacity; strong balance sheet (leverage 0.5x, $3B cash).

External component price inflation (e.g., EML/laser pricing increases) Ongoing

Not quantified; management notes reported laser/EML price increases in the market

Mitigation:Most transceiver components internally sourced, buffering external increases; successful pass-through or offset of higher external component prices; healthy pricing dynamics from supply-demand imbalance.

Customer concentration in CPO / hyperscaler dependency As CPO ramps from H2 CY26

Not quantified — NVIDIA is the lead CPO customer, though multiple other customers are engaged

Mitigation:Broadening customer engagement across CPO/MPO; wide portfolio of CPO components reduces single-solution dependency.

Q&A highlights

What is driving the implied acceleration in the June quarter guide, on both the demand and supply sides?

Management sees the June quarter as a new inflection point; demand is exceptional with record bookings and orders extending into calendar 2028, but the focus is on ramping supply — especially indium phosphide capacity, which doubles a quarter early — plus incremental growth vectors (OCS, CPO from H2 CY26, multi-rail from H1 CY27, thermal from H2 CY27).

“We really believe the current June quarter kind of represents a new inflection point in our revenue growth rate moving forward”

asked by Samik Chatterjee · answered by James Anderson

4 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

Record backlog and multi-year demand visibility

Management reported another 'step function' increase in the order book, driving backlog to a record level, with record bookings substantially above the prior quarter. Order visibility now extends into calendar 2028 and customer LTAs reach the end of the decade, and management characterized demand as exceptionally strong and broad-based across multiple customers and product categories with no signs of attenuation.

The company frames the June quarter as a new inflection point in its revenue growth rate, with supply — not demand — as the gating factor.

6-inch indium phosphide capacity ramp

Indium phosphide has been the key constraint for Coherent and the industry. The 6-inch platform delivers more than 4x the devices at less than half the cost of 3-inch, and yields on all three device types (EMLs, CW lasers, photodiodes) already exceed 3-inch yields.

The Sherman, Texas facility ramped first and shipped the first transceivers containing 6-inch-produced components this quarter, contributing to both sequential revenue and gross margin. Sweden is in production and a third site in Zurich was announced, with output expected to begin in early calendar 2027.

Internal InP capacity is on track to double one quarter early (June quarter) and more than double again by end of CY27; by the end of this year roughly half of capacity will be 6-inch.

Data center transceivers — 800G and 1.6T

Data center revenue grew 13% sequentially and 37% YoY, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit sequential growth. Management expects 800 gig revenue to grow YoY in calendar 2026 while 1.6T ramps rapidly through the balance of the year and into next, with a broad range of customers adopting 1.6T; the 1.6T ramp is running faster than expected a year ago and drives a good portion of current-quarter sequential growth.

The 1.6T ramp uses both EML and silicon-photonics-based transceivers (both requiring InP-based CW lasers), with no significant gross margin difference between the two; mix is determined by customer application. A 400-gig-per-lane silicon photonics capability enabling 3.2T was demonstrated at OFC.

OCS and CPO growth vectors

Coherent raised its OCS market opportunity to over $4B, citing expanding use cases across data center interconnect, scale-out and scale-up networks. A recently resolved internal-component bottleneck now allows OCS output to ramp rapidly across two facilities. CPO is framed as a transformational, >$15B incremental opportunity; the NVIDIA partnership covers multiple CPO products (high-power CW laser, external laser source module, fiber attach unit with micro-lens arrays and polarization-maintaining fiber).

Initial scale-out CPO revenue begins H2 CY26 and scale-up CPO in H2 CY27, with NVIDIA as lead customer and multiple others engaged across CPO and MPO opportunities.

Communications, scale-across and multi-rail

Communications revenue accelerated to 16% sequential and 60% YoY growth, driven by data center interconnect (ZR/ZR+ transceivers), scale-across and traditional telecom. The portfolio spans components (pump lasers), modules (100G/400G/800G ZR/ZR+), line cards, amplifiers and full systems, with LTAs in place.

Multi-rail — addressing bandwidth between increasingly distributed AI data centers — is a new full-system product with a market sized at least $2B; management describes highly differentiated underlying component technology and a higher gross margin structure, with initial revenue in H1 CY27.

Gross margin expansion drivers

Non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.6%, up 57 bps sequentially and 105 bps YoY, marking sequential improvement in 7 of the past 8 quarters (~530 bps cumulative). Drivers are cost reductions (notably 6-inch InP at roughly half the cost), yield improvements, and pricing optimization, each of which increased significantly QoQ.

Improvements were predominantly in Datacenter & Communications, and pricing optimization was 'quite sizable' in that segment as well as industrial. Management reiterated its >42% long-term gross margin target and characterized the trajectory as early stage.

Industrial segment and data center thermal opportunity

Industrial revenue declined modestly both sequentially and YoY on a pro forma basis amid continued softness, but semiconductor capital equipment bookings increased meaningfully and are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the current quarter. Longer term, Coherent is repurposing industrial materials technology for AI data centers: Thermadite (a proprietary material offering 2x-5x better heat transfer than copper for XPU/ASIC cooling) and thermoelectric generators for waste-heat recovery, both with revenue expected to begin in H2 CY27.

Balance sheet, capital allocation and NVIDIA investment

Cash rose to $3.0B from $1.5B, primarily on NVIDIA's $2B equity investment announced March 2, 2026. The company made $162M of debt payments, cutting the debt leverage ratio to 0.5x from 1.7x in Q2 and 2.1x a year ago. Capital expenditures rose to $290M (from $154M and $112M) to expand internal capacity and are guided higher again in Q4.

Capital allocation is focused on capacity expansion and the R&D road map; new LTAs typically include upfront customer capex investment, a supply commitment, and a minimum demand commitment.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.