Detailed Narrative
AI-Driven Demand and Visibility
Coherent is experiencing extraordinary demand and visibility due to the AI build-out, particularly in optical networking infrastructure. Data center bookings saw a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 4x in Q2 FY26, with orders extending into calendar year 2027 and detailed forecasts reaching calendar year 2028. The company is also securing long-term supply agreements with financial commitments from customers to guarantee demand, providing robust confidence in future growth.
Indium Phosphide Capacity Expansion
The company is rapidly expanding its 6-inch indium phosphide production capacity, with wafer starts already at 80% of the target to double capacity by Q4 CY26. This 6-inch technology produces over 4x as many chips at less than half the cost compared to 3-inch wafers, driving significant revenue growth and margin expansion. Production is ramping at two sites, Sherman, Texas, and Jarfalla, Sweden, with 6-inch yields exceeding 3-inch lines, and committed substrate supply has been secured.
1.6T and CPO Product Ramps
Coherent expects significant growth from 1.6T transceivers, with initial ramps driven by EML and Silicon Photonics-based transceivers, followed by 200-gig VCSEL-based 1.6T transceivers in H2 CY26. The company secured an exceptionally large purchase order for a CPO solution, including its new high-power CW Laser, with initial revenue expected by end of CY26 and significant contribution in CY27. This CPO solution leverages 6-inch indium phosphide production in Sherman, Texas, highlighting a competitive advantage.
Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) Momentum
OCS backlog grew sequentially in Q2 FY26, with over 10 customer engagements for both 64x64 and 320x320 systems. OCS revenue is expected to grow sequentially in the current and coming quarters, addressing an expected addressable market opportunity of over $2 billion over the coming years. Applications are broadening beyond traditional uses to include DCI and scale-up networks, indicating a larger market potential than previously assessed.
Industrial Segment Recovery and Portfolio Optimization
The Industrial segment saw a significant increase in orders from semi-cap customers in Q2 FY26, expected to drive sequential growth in the June quarter and H2 CY26. Coherent also completed the sale of its Munich-based materials processing product division, which is expected to be immediately accretive to gross margin and EPS. This divestiture, along with other streamlining initiatives, has led to exiting 33 sites over the past six quarters, improving operational efficiency.
Operational Efficiency and Margin Expansion
Non-GAAP gross margin improved by 24 bps sequentially and 77 bps YoY to 39%, driven by reduced product input costs, manufacturing efficiency gains, yield improvements, and pricing optimization. SG&A as a percentage of revenue declined to 9.6%. The company is consolidating ERP platforms and implementing low-cost region initiatives to further drive efficiencies and achieve its long-term SG&A target of 8% of revenue, while investing in R&D for future growth.