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    CSX
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    CSX CORP CSX

    Oct 16, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    CSX Q3 FY25 — Strong Operational Performance and Strategic Focus

    CSX delivered a quarter of strong operational performance, marked by improved network fluidity and the ahead-of-schedule completion of key infrastructure projects. The new CEO outlined a vision focused on best-in-class performance, cultural development, and capitalizing on strategic opportunities, including potential M&A. Despite mixed market conditions and some segment volume declines, the company is leveraging its improved service to pursue growth, particularly in intermodal, and is well-positioned for future efficiency gains as project-related costs abate.

    Highlights

    5
    • Train velocity was the fastest since early 2021, reflecting improved network fluidity.

    • Dwell time hit its lowest point since mid-2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.

    • Intermodal Trip Plan Compliance (TPC) rose to 93% from 90%, and carload TPC climbed to 83% from 75%.

    • Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge subdivision projects completed slightly ahead of schedule, enhancing network capacity and resiliency.

    • Minerals volume and revenue were up 8% and 12% respectively, driven by strong demand in aggregates and cement.

    Concerns

    5
    • Merchandise revenue volume was down 1% with RPU flat, due to lower fuel surcharge and unfavorable mix.

    • Coal revenue declined 11% on 3% lower total volume, with all-in coal RPU down 9% year-over-year.

    • Export coal tonnage was down 11% due to reduced production from mine fires.

    • Forest product and chemical markets saw volume declines of 7% each, impacted by broader market softness and tariffs.

    • Adjusted expenses increased by 3%, including $60 million of severance, network disruption, and other costs.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year volume growth
    expect to deliver volume growth
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year CapEx
    $2.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 Headcount
    hold stable to slightly lower sequentially
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q4 PS&O expenses
    partially offset the normal sequential increase
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q4 Results
    reflect the strong operating performance and cost efficiencies
    high materiality
    High
    Howard Street Tunnel double stack capacity
    start in the second quarter of 2026
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Merchandise
    Core pricing gains were offset by lower fuel surcharge and unfavorable mix. Minerals volume and revenue were up 8% and 12% respectively. Fertilizer volume grew 7%. Metals and equipment volume was up 5%. Automotive production drove 1% higher volume. Forest product and chemical markets volume was down 7% each. Ag and food volume was down 7%.
    Volume: down 1%RPU: flat
    down 1%
    Coal
    Export tonnage was impacted by mine fires. Domestic coal business saw steady trends. Steel industrial tonnage was affected by softer market fundamentals. Utility coal benefited from supportive power demand and higher natural gas prices.
    Total volume: 3% lowerAll-in RPU: declined 9% year-over-yearExport tonnage: down 11%Steel industrial tonnage: down 15% year-over-yearUtility coal tonnage: up 22% year-over-year
    declined 11%
    Intermodal
    Performed well despite a soft trucking market and muted pricing. International business benefited from strong growth with key customers. Domestic volumes grew modestly due to new service offerings. Volumes have softened in recent weeks, in line with typical seasonality.
    Volume: 5% increase
    up 4%

    Operational metrics

    19
    Adjusted Operating Income
    $1.1 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Reported operating income, excluding $164 million impairment charge related to Quality Carriers.

    Adjusted Earnings Per Share
    $0.37fell by $0.02
    Q3 FY25

    Excluding $0.07 per share from impairment of Quality Carriers goodwill. Impacted by $0.02 of discrete unfavorable impacts, $35 million of restructuring/severance/regulatory advisory expenses, and $25 million of network disruption costs.

    Adjusted Expenses
    increased by 3%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Excluding the $164 million impairment charge.

    Interest and Other Expense
    $19 million highercompared to prior year
    Q3 FY25
    Income Tax Expense
    fell by $46 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25
    Labor and Fringe Expense
    up $9 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25
    Purchase Services and Other (PS&O) Costs
    increased $54 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25

    The team delivered significant PS&O efficiency savings.

    Depreciation Expense
    up $8 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25
    Fuel Cost
    up $5 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25
    Equipment and Rents Expense
    decreased $5 millionYoY
    Q3 FY25
    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    over $2 billion
    YTD Q3 FY25

    Committed to shareholder distributions.

    Network Disruption Costs (Q3)
    $25 million
    Q3 FY25

    Related to Blue Ridge and Howard Street projects.

    Network Disruption Costs (Q4 residual)
    about $10 million
    Q4 FY25

    Expected to linger into Q4.

    Severance and Restructuring Costs (Q3)
    about $30 million
    Q3 FY25
    Regulatory Advisory Costs (Q4)
    $5 million to $10 million
    Q4 FY25

    Expected in Q4 PS&O expenses.

    Sequential Benefits from Cost Reductions
    about $45 millionsequential
    Q3 to Q4 FY25

    Expected sequential benefit from Q3 to Q4.

    Non-repeating Costs (FY26)
    about $100 million
    FY26

    Costs that will not repeat in the next year, providing a positive setup for 2026.

    Other Revenue
    normalizes back down
    Q4 FY25

    Expected to normalize after a strong Q3.

    Incentive Compensation
    likely be a little bit higher
    Q4 FY25

    Expected increase in Q4.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Safetyticked up slightly
    Volumedown 1%%
    Service metrics93%%
    Network fluidityfastest since early 2021
    Pricing vs rail inflationflat
    Fuel surcharge diesel pricelower
    Intermodal truckload volume5% increase%
    Labor productivity headcountlower
    Tariff trade policy revenue impactimpacted

    Capital programs

    2
    Blue Ridge subdivision rebuildcompletedexceed $500 million
    Period spend: $440 million

    Benefit: enhanced network capacity and resiliency

    Total spending expected to exceed $500 million before insurance recoveries. $440 million spent year-to-date. Project finished slightly ahead of schedule.

    Howard Street Tunnel projectcompleted

    Benefit: double stack clearance through Baltimore, expanding intermodal service offerings into the Northeast region

    Project finished slightly ahead of schedule. Double stack capacity will be available starting in Q2 2026.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Soft trucking marketnear-term

    muted pricing in intermodal, impacts merchandise RPU

    Mitigation: new service offerings, leveraging network performance, working with partners to convert truck to rail

    Shifting trade policies and tariffsongoing

    impacted forest product and chemical markets (volume down 7% each)

    Mitigation: positive core pricing mitigated revenue declines, seeking more certainty around tariffs for future investments

    Weak global commodity pricesongoing

    unfavorable mix and coal pricing headwinds

    Mitigation: capitalizing on strong demand in aggregates/cement, leveraging unique footprint

    Unsupportive interest ratesongoing

    general market uncertainty

    Mitigation: focus on internal efficiencies and strategic growth

    Mine fires impacting coal productionQ3 FY25

    export tonnage down 11%

    Mitigation: recent reopening of a key export mine, strong operational performance

    Aluminum supply challengesthrough year-end

    minimal anticipated impacts to automotive production

    Mitigation: production levels expected to remain relatively steady

    Temporary closures and outagesQ3 FY25

    impacted coal and chemical segments

    Mitigation: hope for better performance moving into next year as these abate

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Howard Street Tunnel double stack capacity utilization

    Q2 FY26
    Currentnot yet active
    Targetstart of service and initial customer adoption

    Why it matters

    This project is expected to expand intermodal service offerings into the Northeast, driving new revenue and market share.

    Starting in the second quarter of 2026, we will begin to capitalize on double stack clearance through Baltimore that will expand our intermodal service offerings into the Northeast region.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Given your background in complex M&A, how do you view CSX's positioning relative to peers pursuing a Transcon merger, and is M&A part of your mandate?

    CEO Angel stated that his approach to strategic opportunities is to run the company to the best of its ability, creating value as a standalone entity, and then capitalize on opportunities when the timing is right and the company is in a position of strength. He noted the rigorous approval process for mergers and CSX's commitment to remaining competitive.

    You've got to run the franchise you have to the best of your ability, build value that way, keep your eyes open for strategic opportunities. And when they come, you put yourself in a good position to capitalize on it.

    asked by Brian Ossenbeck · answered by Stephen Angel

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    New CEO's Vision and Strategic Priorities

    Stephen Angel, the new President and CEO, outlined his vision for CSX, drawing parallels with his experience in the industrial gas sector. He emphasized safety as a sacred responsibility and highlighted the capital-intensive nature of both industries, stressing the importance of leveraging infrastructure for higher returns. Angel's priorities include driving best-in-class financial performance (operating margins, return on capital, cash flow), fostering a high-performance culture, developing a strong talent pipeline, and capitalizing on strategic opportunities to create compelling shareholder value. He aims for continuous improvement across all profitability levers: efficiency, productivity, price yield, volume, and capital efficiency.

    02

    Operational Excellence and Network Fluidity

    The company reported significant operational improvements, with train velocity reaching its fastest point since early 2021 and dwell time hitting its lowest since mid-2023. Average daily cars online were the lowest since 2020, demonstrating disciplined network management. Trip Plan Compliance (TPC) also saw strong gains, with intermodal TPC rising to 93% and carload TPC to 83%. These improvements reflect enhanced asset utilization, reduced train miles, optimized horsepower, and solid fuel productivity, positioning the railroad for greater efficiency and responsiveness to customer needs.

    03

    Key Infrastructure Projects Completed

    CSX successfully completed two major infrastructure projects: the Howard Street Tunnel and the Blue Ridge subdivision rebuild, both slightly ahead of schedule. The Howard Street Tunnel project will enable double-stack clearance through Baltimore, expanding intermodal service offerings into the Northeast region starting in Q2 2026. The Blue Ridge rebuild, which incurred over $500 million in spending, enhances network capacity and resiliency. These completions remove significant network disruption costs and position the company for improved service levels and new commercial opportunities.

    04

    Mixed Market Conditions and Segment Performance

    Market conditions were described as mixed, with customers facing uncertainty from shifting trade policies, weak global commodity prices, and a soft trucking market. Merchandise revenue volume was down 1%, though minerals volume and revenue were up 8% and 12% respectively. Coal revenue declined 11% on 3% lower volume, impacted by mine fires and softer steel market fundamentals, but utility coal performed well. Intermodal revenue increased 4% on a 5% volume increase, benefiting from strong international growth and new domestic service offerings, despite muted pricing and a soft trucking market.

    05

    Strategic Opportunities and M&A Context

    The new CEO acknowledged the ongoing strategic shifts in the industry, particularly regarding potential mergers. He emphasized running CSX as a strong standalone company to create value and position it favorably for any future strategic opportunities. Management noted increased cooperation within the rail industry to convert truck volume to rail, citing recent intermodal performance as an encouraging sign. The company is actively developing new solutions and working with partners to expand its reach and gain market share, while also preparing to address competitive implications of potential industry consolidation.

    06

    Cost Management and Financial Outlook

    Adjusted expenses increased by 3%, including approximately $60 million in severance, network disruption, and regulatory advisory costs. However, the company highlighted strong underlying cost momentum from efficiency savings, lower rail headcount, and improved fuel efficiency. The easing of network disruption costs is expected to provide approximately $100 million in benefits for the next year. CSX remains committed to shareholder distributions, having returned over $2 billion year-to-date, and plans to continue its long-term track record of powerful cash generation and steady dividend increases, while maintaining capital discipline.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.