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    CVX
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    CHEVRON Q4 FY25 earnings call CVX

    Jan 30, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Chevron Q4 FY25 — Record Production and Shareholder Returns Drive Strong Cash Flow Growth

    Chevron delivered a strong Q4 FY25, marked by record production and robust free cash flow generation, enabling continued record shareholder returns. The company is entering 2026 from a position of strength, driven by project ramp-ups, the Hess acquisition, and an expanded cost reduction program. Management remains focused on capital discipline and cash flow growth across its diversified portfolio, with strategic investments in key regions like the Eastern Mediterranean and Venezuela.

    Highlights

    5
    • Production reached record levels globally and in the U.S., including 1 million boe/d in the Permian, contributing to a 7% to 10% increase year-over-year in 2026.

    • Adjusted free cash flow was up over 35% year-over-year, excluding asset sales, despite a nearly 15% decline in oil prices.

    • Returned record cash to shareholders for the fourth consecutive year, with over $100 billion in dividends and buybacks over the last 4 years.

    • Achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost reductions in 2025, with an annual run rate of $2 billion, exceeding expectations.

    • Increased quarterly dividend by 4%, aligning with top financial priority.

    Concerns

    3
    • Adjusted earnings were lower by roughly $600 million compared to last quarter, primarily due to lower liquids prices and reduced chemicals earnings/refining volumes.

    • TCO experienced a temporary power distribution system issue, causing production suspension, though early production has resumed.

    • CPC loading berth was impacted by a submarine drone in December, reducing loading capacity to one berth, now restored to two.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    TCO Chevron share free cash flow
    $6 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Venezuelan production growth
    up to 50% increase
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Leviathan gross production capacity
    2.1 billion cubic feet per day
    medium materiality
    High
    Tamar gross capacity increase
    500 million cubic feet a day
    medium materiality
    High
    Leviathan gross capacity increase (near-term)
    200 million cubic feet a day
    medium materiality
    High
    Offshore production increase
    approximately 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day
    high materiality
    High
    TCO production growth
    30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day
    medium materiality
    High
    Total production increase (excluding asset sales)
    7% to 10%
    high materiality
    High
    Structural cost reduction target
    $3 billion to $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Bakken long lateral development
    90% of wells
    low materiality
    High
    Bakken production target
    around 200,000 barrels a day, plus or minus
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Adjusted Upstream
    Adjusted upstream earnings decreased primarily due to lower liquids prices.
    Decreased
    Adjusted Downstream
    Adjusted downstream earnings were lower largely due to lower chemicals earnings and refining volumes.
    Lower

    Operational metrics

    25
    Adjusted earnings
    $3 billiondown $600 million QoQ
    Q4 FY25

    Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter, lower than the previous quarter.

    Adjusted EPS
    $1.52
    Q4 FY25

    Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter.

    Pension curtailment costs
    $128 million
    Q4 FY25

    Costs included in the fourth quarter earnings.

    Negative foreign currency effects
    $130 million
    Q4 FY25

    Impact on earnings in the fourth quarter.

    Organic CapEx
    $5.1 billion
    Q4 FY25

    Organic capital expenditures for the fourth quarter, in line with full year guidance.

    Net debt coverage ratio
    1x
    End of FY25

    Balance sheet strength at year-end.

    Share repurchases
    $14 billion
    FY25

    Total value of share repurchases and Hess shares acquired at a discount.

    Structural cost reduction delivered
    $1.5 billion
    FY25

    Cost savings delivered as part of the structural cost reduction program.

    Structural cost reduction annual run rate
    $2 billion
    End of FY25

    Annualized run rate of cost savings achieved by the end of 2025.

    Dividend and buybacks returned
    $100 billion
    Last 4 years

    Total cash returned to shareholders over the past four years.

    Quarterly dividend increase
    4%
    Q1 FY26

    Increase in the quarterly dividend, aligning with financial priorities.

    Net oil equivalent production growth
    6% to 8%
    FY25

    Production growth at the top end of the guidance range for 2025, excluding Hess.

    Venezuelan production increase
    200,000 barrels per day
    Since 2022

    Increase in production from Venezuelan ventures since 2022.

    Venezuelan gross production
    250,000 barrels per day
    Current

    Current gross production from Venezuelan joint ventures.

    Tamar gross capacity increase
    1.6 billion cubic feet per day
    Ongoing

    Increased gross capacity at Tamar due to the optimization project, currently in progress.

    Refinery throughput
    Highest in 2 decades
    FY25

    Record U.S. refinery throughput reflecting expansion projects and efficiency.

    Permian CapEx
    $3.5 billion
    Current

    Current capital expenditure in the Permian, reflecting improved cash efficiency.

    Drilling rig efficiency
    more than doubled
    Since 2022

    Improvement in drilling efficiency in the Permian since 2022.

    Chemical treatments on new wells
    40%
    H1 2025

    Proportion of new wells treated with chemical surfactants in the first half of 2025.

    Cumulative recovery improvement (new wells)
    20%
    10-month cumulative

    Improvement in cumulative recovery for new wells treated with chemical surfactants.

    Recovery uplift (full well life)
    at least 10%
    Full life of well

    Expected recovery uplift over the full life of a well from chemical treatments.

    Decline arrest (existing wells)
    5% to 8%
    Current

    Decline arrest observed in existing wells after chemical treatments.

    Bakken rig count
    3down from 4
    Current

    Optimized rig count in the Bakken while maintaining similar drilling output.

    Venezuelan crude intake
    50,000 barrels a day
    Current

    Current intake of Venezuelan crude at the Pascagoula refinery.

    Venezuelan crude system capacity
    100,000 barrels a day
    Potential

    Additional capacity in Chevron's refining system to process Venezuelan crude.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    D c efficiency rig activitymore than doubled
    Basin level production volume1 millionboe/d
    FCF shareholder distributions$20 billionUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Share repurchase authorization$3 billionQ4 FY25

    Repurchased shares at the high end of the Q4 guidance range.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Hess Corporationacquisition

    Acquisition of Hess, contributing to a stronger upstream portfolio.

    Libyan National Oil Corporationpartnership

    Recently signed an MOU in Libya to explore opportunities in the country.

    Capital programs

    4
    Tengiz Future Growth Project (FGP)completed

    Benefit: 260,000 barrels of oil per day

    Completion of the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, adding significant production capacity.

    Leviathan Expansionunderway

    Benefit: 2.1 billion cubic feet per day gross capacity

    Leviathan recently reached Final Investment Decision (FID) to further expand production capacity.

    Tamar Optimization Projectunderway

    Benefit: 1.6 billion cubic feet per day gross capacity

    The Tamar optimization project start-up is in progress, increasing gross capacity.

    Aphrodite Developmentunderway

    Aphrodite has now entered FEED (Front-End Engineering Design), working towards developing a competitive investment in Cyprus.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    TCO power distribution system issueEarly January 2026

    Temporary production suspension

    Mitigation: Team proactively suspended production, identified root cause, and implemented solutions; early production resumed, full capacity expected within February.

    CPC loading berth damageDecember 2025

    Reduced loading capacity to 1 berth

    Mitigation: One of the three offshore single-point moorings was hit by a submarine drone; 2 loading berths are now back in service.

    Lower liquids pricesQ4 FY25

    Adjusted upstream earnings decreased

    Mitigation: Focus on cost savings, capital discipline, and high-margin production growth to manage through cycles.

    Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty in VenezuelaOngoing

    Potential for 50% production growth contingent on U.S. government authorizations; new hydrocarbon law under review.

    Mitigation: Working with U.S. and Venezuelan governments to create circumstances for expansion; monitoring stability, fiscal regime, and regulatory predictability.

    Sub-optimal energy policymaking in CaliforniaDecades

    Made it more difficult to invest, leading to higher fuel prices and refinery closures.

    Mitigation: Leveraging strong downstream position with scale, complexity, flexible crude sourcing, and advanced logistics to remain competitive.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Can you elaborate on the TCO volumes for 2026, including optimized maintenance, and discuss the power distribution issue and debottlenecking activities?

    Management explained the proactive suspension of TCO production due to a power system issue, with early production resuming and full capacity expected in February. The 2026 full-year guidance for TCO FCF is unchanged. Optimized maintenance and ongoing debottlenecking efforts, including a column retray, are expected to support production near original expectations and potentially increase capacity beyond nameplate.

    Production has been resumed at the Korolev field. A number of the assets or power distribution assets have been taken out of service have been brought back into service.

    asked by Arun Jayaram · answered by Michael Wirth

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Portfolio Strengthening and Project Execution

    Chevron executed on its strategy in 2025, achieving record global and U.S. production, including 1 million boe/d in the Permian. Key project milestones included the completion of the Tengiz Future Growth Project, adding 260,000 bbl/d, and start-ups at Ballymore, Whale, and Anchor in the Gulf of America. The Hess acquisition further strengthened the upstream portfolio, contributing to industry-leading cash margins. In downstream, the company delivered its highest U.S. refinery throughput in two decades, reflecting recent expansion projects and improved efficiency.

    02

    Venezuela Operations and Future Potential

    Chevron has maintained uninterrupted operations in Venezuela, working with partners to increase production in its joint ventures by over 200,000 bbl/d since 2022, reaching approximately 250,000 bbl/d gross. The company sees potential for an additional 50% production growth over the next 18-24 months, contingent on U.S. government authorizations. Current activities are venture-funded, recovering outstanding debt and covering operational costs. While the resource potential is large, future expansion depends on stability, fiscal regime clarity, and competitive terms.

    03

    Eastern Mediterranean Gas Development

    The Eastern Mediterranean region is a significant growth area for Chevron, with over 40 Tcf of gross resource across its core assets. The Leviathan field recently reached FID for further expansion, aiming for 2.1 Bcf/d gross capacity by the end of the decade. The Tamar optimization project is in progress, increasing gross capacity to 1.6 Bcf/d. The Aphrodite project has entered FEED, working towards a competitive development in Cyprus. These projects are expected to double earnings and free cash flow from the region by 2030.

    04

    Structural Cost Reduction Program Success

    Chevron's structural cost reduction program exceeded expectations, delivering $1.5 billion in savings in 2025 and achieving an annual run rate of $2 billion. The company has expanded its target to $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026, with over 60% of savings expected from durable efficiency gains. This was driven by a broad, organization-wide effort to operate more efficiently, streamline processes, integrate advanced technology like AI, and leverage scale across the supply chain, including optimizing production chemicals and supply chain negotiations.

    05

    Permian and Shale Portfolio Capital Efficiency

    The Permian asset has maintained production at 1 million bbl/d for three quarters, with a focus on cash generation rather than production growth. Capital efficiency has improved, with CapEx at $3.5 billion, driven by a more than doubling of drilling efficiency since 2022. The integration of the shale and tight portfolio (Permian, Bakken, DJ, Argentina) into one business is extending these efficiencies across all assets. The strategy emphasizes improving returns through operational excellence and technology application.

    06

    Refining Portfolio and Market Dynamics

    Chevron's refining portfolio, particularly in California, benefits from scale, complexity, flexible crude sourcing, and strong logistics. The company can process up to 100,000 bbl/d of Venezuelan crude in its system, in addition to the 50,000 bbl/d currently processed at Pascagoula. The California market is geographically and logistically isolated, leading to higher fuel prices, which management attributes to past energy policymaking that has made investment more challenging.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.