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Dominion Energy (D) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Utilities· May 1, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Dominion Energy Q1 FY26 — CVOW past 75% complete, full guidance affirmed as storage, data-center and Millstone catalysts build

Dominion's regulated-growth thesis is intact: management affirmed the entire guidance framework and deliberately flagged optionality — storage legislation, accelerating data-center load, and Millstone recontracting — as catalysts that could enhance or extend the long-term growth rate. CVOW de-risking, via First Power and a markedly faster turbine cadence, is the pivotal near-term proof point, with tariff and schedule sensitivities the main watch-items against a balance sheet held at its target cushion.

Highlights

5
  • Q1 operating EPS of $0.95 (GAAP $0.69); full-year operating earnings, dividend, credit and 5%-7% long-term growth guidance all affirmed

  • Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) now over 75% complete with First Power delivered to customers in March; project budget cut ~$100M to $11.4B

  • Data center pipeline exceeds 50 GW across stages of contracting, with ~10.4 GW contracted under electric service agreements

  • FFO/debt above 15% for both FY2025 and Q1 LTM — balance sheet already at the targeted cushion, not ramping toward it

  • New Virginia storage law (HB 895/SB 448) lifts the mandate to petition for 20 GW of storage by 2045 from 3 GW by 2035, a multi-decade regulated capex opportunity

Concerns

4
  • Potential Section 232 steel/aluminum tariffs could add ~$200M to CVOW cost, pending agency interpretive guidance and supplier data

  • CVOW unused contingency down to $123M; each quarter of turbine installation beyond July 2027 would add $150M-$200M to project cost

  • $1.2B of ATM common equity issued year-to-date (dilution), with $400M-$600M more planned for the remainder of 2026

  • Customer affordability pressure from higher housing, grocery and electric costs while executing one of the sector's largest capital programs

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Long-term annual operating EPS growth rate
5%-7%, guided to the midpoint
high materiality
High
Long-term operating EPS growth positioning (2028+)
Bias toward the upper half of the 5%-7% range starting in 2028
high materiality
Medium
Full-year 2026 operating earnings and all financial guidance
Affirmed (operating earnings, credit, dividend and long-term growth guidance reaffirmed from Q4 call)
high materiality
High
FFO to debt (credit metric)
Above 15%
high materiality
High
ATM common equity issuance (remainder of 2026)
$400M-$600M remaining
medium materiality
High
CVOW project completion timeline
Majority of turbines in service by end of 2026, remainder in early 2027 prior to end of June
high materiality
High
Virginia grid-scale storage petition mandate
Petition for 20 GW of short- and long-term storage by 2045
high materiality
High
CVOW customer fuel savings
~$5B for customers over the project's first 10 years of operations
medium materiality
Medium
DESC (South Carolina) electric rate case decision timing
Decision expected late June 2026, rates effective July
medium materiality
High
Dominion Energy North Carolina (DENC) rate case decision timing
Decision expected February 2027; interim rates effective December 2026 (subject to true-up, finalization March 2027)
medium materiality
High

Deals & partnerships

Data center customers (unnamed) customer contract (electric service agreements) ~10.4 GW contracted under ESAs; over 50 GW total pipeline across stages

Accelerating, durable demand in Virginia; commitments added across all contracting stages since December; no detectable change despite PJM construct uncertainty.

CVOW financing partner (unnamed) JV / project financing (cost-sharing and risk-sharing)

Structure protects customers and shareholders on CVOW.

Connecticut DEEP / state utilities (Millstone) customer contract / state procurement (zero-carbon RFP bid) Existing PPA contracted a little more than half (~55%) through August 2029

No stated cap on volume contractable with the state; management willing to contract more than 55%. Other New England states have expressed interest; data-center interest continues but any outcome requires Connecticut stakeholder support.

Capital programs

Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) underway / nearing completion $11.4B
Spent to date: Over 75% complete
Funding: Financing partner cost-sharing / risk-sharing structure (a portion of any overrun allocated to the financing partner)
Start: Construction underway (monopiles began May 2024)

Benefit:~$5B projected customer fuel savings over first 10 years of operations; First Power delivered March 2026

Budget of $11.4B is ~$100M lower than the prior update, reflecting updated tariff assumptions from recent judicial/administrative actions. Unused contingency $123M. All 176 transition pieces and 3 substations installed; deepwater export cables in; towers >86% / nacelles ~69% / blades ~45% fabricated. Beyond July 2027, each additional quarter would add $150M-$200M (partly allocated to the financing partner). Two open cost items: potential reduction from PJM transmission-cost reallocation (not in current mark) and potential ~$200M Section 232 tariff impact (not in current mark), expected to roughly offset.

Five-year capital plan underway $65B
Funding: Mix of regulated recovery, ATM common equity and debt (per Q4 financing plan)
Start: Produced with the Q4 (February) call

Benefit:Includes ~$2B (~3%) for battery storage subject to regulatory approval; spans generation, transmission and distribution

Successive plans stepped up ~30% (most recent) and ~15% (prior) versus predecessors. Management expects upward bias from the new storage mandate and other regulated opportunities, to be reflected in the capital update early next year.

Virginia grid-scale battery storage program underway / expanding ~$2B currently in plan; multi-decade opportunity to reach 20 GW mandate (at ~$2.5B-$3B per GW)
Funding: Recovered via rider mechanism in Virginia
Start: In progress; pipeline being developed

Benefit:Path to 20 GW of short- and long-term storage (up from 3 GW by 2035 requirement)

Enabled by HB 895 and SB 448. SCC technical conference planned this year; fall IRP update and Q4 capital-plan update will show the ramp. Long-duration storage still at pilot stage (evaluating technologies with multiple vendors).

Risks & headwinds

Section 232 steel/aluminum tariff exposure on CVOW 2026, pending agency interpretive guidance and supplier data

Potential ~$200M impact

Mitigation:Evaluating with partners (many are importer of record); expected to be roughly offset by potential reallocation/reduction of PJM transmission costs allocated to CVOW

CVOW turbine installation schedule slippage Through project completion (majority end-2026, remainder before end-June 2027)

$150M-$200M added cost per additional quarter beyond July 2027

Mitigation:Budget includes turbine installation schedule contingency for weather delays through July 2027; a portion of overruns allocated to the financing partner; improving install cadence (~2 days/turbine) and better summer weather windows

Equity dilution from continuous ATM issuance FY2026

~$1.2B common equity issued YTD; $400M-$600M more planned in 2026

Mitigation:Sized within Q4 financing plan; supports above-15% FFO/debt cushion

Customer affordability pressure Ongoing

Not quantified (bills cited to grow roughly with inflation long term)

Mitigation:Competitive rates vs national average; large-load provisions to prevent smaller-customer subsidization; VA fuel securitization planned; budget billing, energy-share and a new online bill-management platform; AI efficiency initiatives

Regulatory / rate case outcomes DESC decision late June 2026; DENC decision February 2027

DENC case covers ~$400M of investment (DENC ~4% of investment base); DESC and DENC outcomes pending

Mitigation:Track record of constructive regulatory outcomes; interim rates for DENC effective December 2026 subject to true-up

Millstone recontracting uncertainty DEEP solicitation decisions Q2 2026; negotiations Q3; PURA approval up to 180 days

Existing PPA ~55% contracted through August 2029; no contract yet secured for post-2029

Mitigation:Active DEEP RFP bid; interest from other New England states and data centers; plan characterized as appropriately conservative around Millstone

New nuclear (SMR/AP1000) execution and cost-overrun risk Longer-term / exploratory

Not quantified

Mitigation:Any structure must address first-of-a-kind risk and cost-overrun risk (customers/shareholders not bearing the burden) and protect the balance sheet/business-risk profile; North Anna early site permit and supportive Virginia policy environment

Fuel cost under-recovery Ongoing

Not quantified

Mitigation:Plan to pursue fuel securitization in Virginia for unrecovered fuel costs to minimize customer rate impact

Q&A highlights

What is embedded in the current plan for battery storage, what recovery mechanism applies to the new opportunity, and what gigawatt installation run-rate can be expected given supply chain, labor and balance-sheet capacity?

The $65B five-year plan already includes ~$2B (~3%) for battery storage subject to regulatory approval; achieving the new 20 GW mandate requires accelerating that capital. A rule-of-thumb of $2.5B-$3B per gigawatt (overnight installed, including transmission upgrades) applies. Watch an upcoming SCC technical conference this year, the fall IRP update, and the Q4 capital-plan update for the ramp shape.

“General rule of thumb, a gigawatt overnight installed, including transmission network upgrades, et cetera. We sort of put into the $2.5 billion to $3 billion per gigawatt.”

asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Steven Ridge

4 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

Three-priority execution framework and quarterly results

Since the business review over two years ago, management has focused on three priorities: consistent achievement of financial commitments, CVOW construction milestones, and constructive regulatory outcomes. Q1 delivered operating earnings of $0.95 per share (GAAP $0.69), and the company affirmed all guidance provided on the Q4 call — operating earnings, credit, dividend, and long-term growth.

Management characterized the financial plan as 'appropriately conservative, but not unreasonably so,' explicitly monitoring catalysts that could enhance and/or extend the long-term growth rate.

Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind — construction and budget

CVOW is now over 75% complete, having delivered First Power to customers in March. All 176 transition pieces and all three substations are installed, deepwater export cables are in, and array cable installation is on track. Turbine fabrication stands at over 86% of towers, ~69% of nacelles, and ~45% of blades.

Nine turbines are complete as of the call, with the last four averaging ~2 days per installation. The project budget was cut ~$100M to $11.4B, unused contingency stands at $123M, and updated analysis projects ~$5B of customer fuel savings over the first 10 years of operations.

CVOW cost watch-items — PJM transmission reallocation and Section 232 tariffs

Two events could move project cost. First, certain regional transmission projects were captured in both the PJM transition cycle (allocating network-upgrade costs to CVOW) and the broader RTEP award package; management expects the transition-cycle network-upgrade costs allocated across all generation projects, including CVOW, to be reassessed and reduced.

Second, recently updated steel and aluminum (Section 232) tariffs carry a potential ~$200M impact, pending supplier data and agency interpretive guidance. Management expects the two effects to roughly offset, though without precision on the balance. Beyond July 2027, each additional quarter of turbine installation would add $150M-$200M, a portion allocated to the financing partner.

Data center demand and large-load protections

Dominion now has over 50 GW of data center capacity in various stages of contracting, including ~10.4 GW contracted under electric service agreements. Management reports accelerating and durable demand with no detectable change despite PJM capacity-pricing and cost-allocation uncertainty, and commitments added across all contracting stages since December.

Recently approved large-load provisions in the 2025 biannual ensure large customers fund the infrastructure required for their growth, protecting smaller customers from cost shifts and mitigating stranded-cost risk.

Virginia storage legislation and capital-plan optionality

HB 895 and SB 448, now signed into law, require Dominion to petition for 20 GW of short- and long-term storage by 2045 — up sharply from the prior 3 GW by 2035 requirement. The current $65B five-year capital plan already includes ~$2B (~3%) for battery storage, recovered via a rider mechanism in Virginia, at an assumed ~$2.5B-$3B per gigawatt overnight installed cost (including transmission upgrades).

Management will update its IRP in the fall and the capital plan on the Q4 call, and expects upward bias to the five-year plan with a higher run-rate in the 2030s. Long-duration storage remains at the pilot stage.

Millstone recontracting path

The existing Millstone PPA is contracted a little more than half (~55%) through August 2029; Governor Lamont and Commissioner Dike recently highlighted the hundreds of millions in customer savings the contract delivers. In March, the facility bid into Connecticut DEEP's zero-carbon RFP; solicitation decisions are expected in Q2, negotiations with local utilities in Q3, and CT PURA approval could take up to 180 days.

There is no stated limit on how much could be contracted with the state, and management would be willing to contract more than 55%. Other New England states have expressed interest, and data-center interest continues, though any outcome must have Connecticut stakeholder support.

Nuclear strategy — SMR and AP1000 optionality

Dominion holds an early site permit at North Anna and has been exploring SMRs. Asked about a utility consortium pursuing new AP1000s with hyperscaler cost-inflation protection and potential federal backstop, management reiterated three governing principles for any nuclear development: address first-of-a-kind risk, address cost-overrun risk so customers and shareholders don't bear the burden, and protect the balance sheet and business-risk profile.

Virginia's pro-nuclear posture (gubernatorial and Senate support, cost-recovery legislation, nuclear supply chain and navy) underpins the optionality.

Regulatory and affordability agenda

The DESC South Carolina electric rate case progresses toward a late-June decision with July rates. A new DENC North Carolina case was filed to recover ~$400M placed in service since 2024, with a February 2027 decision and December 2026 interim rates.

Dominion plans fuel securitization in Virginia to minimize the rate impact of unrecovered fuel costs. Management emphasized customer affordability — competitive rates versus the national average, bills expected to grow roughly with inflation long term, and bill-management programs (budget billing, energy share, a new online platform) plus AI deployment in the contact center.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.