Dominion Energy (D) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Why is 2026/2027 EPS growth at 6% despite higher CapEx, and where is the conservatism, especially regarding Millstone?

Management explained that the consensus for 2026 included higher 45Z credits, which they've reduced. They maintain conservatism regarding Millstone's post-2029 pricing. The strong tailwinds from capital investment are expected to manifest more strongly towards the back end of the 5-year plan, justifying the current 6% growth for 2026-2027.

“Our motto is to underpromise and overdeliver, and that's what we anticipate to continue to do going forward.”

asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Steven Ridge

Are minimum take-or-pays assumed for data centers, and would a quicker ramp be accretive to the current plan?

The data center forecasts are based on confident ESAs and CLOAs, not speculative load letters, reflecting expected coincident demand. While a faster ramp would be addressed, the current plan is based on historical ramp rates. The primary driver is the ability to deploy capital in the regulated business to support sales, which drives long-term earnings growth.

“we're not forecasting based on load letters or inquiries. We're actually showing precisely what we expect coincident demand to be.”

asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Robert Blue

What is the required turbine installation rate to meet the July 2027 timeline, and will financing partners participate if the budget increases?

The expectation is to install turbines at a rate of about 2.25 days per installation on average, with the majority in 2026 and some in 2027. The current budget includes contingency for weather delays through July 2027. Contractual provisions are in place with Stonepeak for cost sharing if delays extend beyond that period, which is not expected.

“our expectation is we get the majority in, in '26 and then some into 2027. And as we think about it, we're looking at sort of a 2.25 days per installation.”

asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Robert Blue

If CVOW installation extends past July 2027, would the overall COD be intact, and how does the earnings cadence work?

The project does not have a single COD date; turbines come online in strings as they are completed. Due to regulatory recovery mechanisms, changes in installation timing would largely be EPS neutral in the form of deferrals, with some cash impacts, but the company maintains a robust credit cushion.

“This is not like a combined cycle where there's a COD date for the end. We bring, as you said in the question, we bring turbines on in strings, and they go in that way.”

asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Robert Blue

Given peers are reducing payout targets, does this influence Dominion's thinking on resuming dividend growth?

Management is aware of the trend of peers reducing payout ratios to fund capital plans and will consider this. They indicated that given the EPS growth rate and current dividend, there is still some time before a final determination on when and how much to grow the dividend.

“We're certainly aware of the trend you're describing, which is folks bringing the payout ratio as a source of funding for their enlarged capital plan. And that's something certainly we'll take into consideration when we get to that point.”

asked by Steven Fleishman · answered by Steven Ridge

What are the specific positives enabling 6% EPS growth in 2026 despite the Millstone double outage, and why don't these recur in 2027?

The 2026 growth benefits from the full impact of the biennial rate increase in Virginia and a half-year impact from the South Carolina rate case, acting as a 'catch-up' year for prior underearning. These specific rate relief impacts are not expected to recur in the same way in 2027, leading to a different cadence.

“In '26, we're getting the benefit of a couple of sort of helpful items. One is the full impact of the biennial rate increase in Virginia and second is a half year impact associated with the South Carolina rate case.”

asked by Stephen D’Ambrisi · answered by Steven Ridge

Can you provide color on the cadence of common equity issuance for the remainder of the plan, and are other funding levers being considered?

Approximately one-third of the total 5-year equity is expected between 2026-2028, and two-thirds in 2029-2030, coinciding with substantial capital increases, particularly for gas generation. The company views hybrids as a very good product for alternative funding due to strong market and attractive equity credit, and will maintain optionality for other sources if more attractive.

“we think about the cadence of equity, about 1/3 of that total 5-year equity we expect between '26, '27 and '28, and about 2/3 in '29 and '30, which is when we see the most substantial capital increases in the business.”

asked by Carly Davenport · answered by Steven Ridge