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    D
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    DOMINION ENERGY Q4 FY25 earnings call D

    Feb 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Dominion Energy Q4 FY25 — Capital Plan Boosted by Data Center Demand

    Dominion Energy delivered strong Q4 FY25 results, exceeding operating earnings guidance and achieving robust credit metrics. The company significantly increased its 5-year capital plan to $65 billion, primarily driven by accelerating data center demand in Virginia, while reaffirming its long-term EPS growth target. Execution on the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project continues to progress, with first power expected by the end of March, despite some initial installation challenges and higher financing costs.

    Highlights

    5
    • Full year 2025 operating earnings of $3.42 per share, and $3.33 excluding RNG 45Z credits, both above the midpoint of guidance.

    • Estimated Moody's CFO pre-working capital to debt is nearly 100 basis points above downgrade threshold and highest since 2012.

    • 5-year total capital estimate increased by 30% to approximately $65 billion, driven by demand growth.

    • Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project is over 70% complete and on track for first power by end of March.

    • Over 48 gigawatts of data center demand in various stages of contracting as of December 2025.

    Concerns

    5
    • 2026 is a double outage year at Millstone, reducing operating EPS by $0.08-$0.10.

    • RNG 45Z income guidance reflects updated credit scoring and lower production assumptions, contributing $0.07 to 2026 total operating EPS midpoint of $3.57.

    • Equity dilution accounts for approximately 250 basis points difference between rate base and long-term earnings growth.

    • Increased parent-level interest-related expense due to current interest rate outlook and higher capital plan.

    • A human performance error during CVOW turbine installation resulted in a nearly 2-week delay for blade replacement.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    2026 Operating EPS (ex-RNG 45Z credit income)
    $3.40-$3.60 per share
    high materiality
    High
    2026 Total Operating EPS (midpoint)
    $3.57 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Operating EPS Growth Rate
    5%-7% annually
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Operating EPS Growth Rate Bias
    Upper half of 5%-7% range
    high materiality
    Medium
    Typical Residential Rates CAGR (DEV)
    Around 2.6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Typical Residential Rates CAGR (DESC)
    Around 2.8%
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV)
    Experienced significant weather-normal sales growth in 2025, driven by data center demand. Maintains competitive rates and has improved customer bill affordability relative to national trends. PJM awarded over $5 billion in transmission projects to DEV.
    Weather-normal sales increase (2025): 5.4%Customer rates vs. national average: 4% lowerResidential rates CAGR: ~2.6%Average residential electric customer bills as % of median household income improvement vs. national average (since 2014): 7% moreData center load CAGR (since 2016): 20%
    5.4%
    Dominion Energy South Carolina (DESC)
    Maintains competitive rates and has significantly improved customer bill affordability. Filed an electric rate case application to support $1.4 billion invested in the system since 2023, with a decision expected in June and rates effective in July.
    Customer rates vs. national average: 12% lowerResidential rates CAGR: ~2.8%Average residential electric customer bills as % of median household income improvement vs. national average (since 2014): 29% more
    Millstone Nuclear Power Station
    Demonstrated exemplary performance in 2025. Eligible for Connecticut DEEP's zero carbon energy RFP and evaluating support for incremental data center activity.
    Contribution to Connecticut's carbon-free electricity: >90%Output under fixed price contract: 55% through late 2029Capacity factor (2025): >91%

    Operational metrics

    9
    OSHA recordable rate
    0.26record low
    2025

    A record for the company, continuing a positive trend from the last 3 years.

    Lost Day Restricted Duty rate
    lowest ever
    2025

    Reflects more serious injuries, also a company record.

    Moody's CFO pre-working capital to debt
    ~100 bps above downgrade thresholdhighest since 2012
    FY25

    Indicates strong credit results and balance sheet strength.

    Millstone double outage EPS impact
    $0.08-$0.10
    Annually

    Normal reduction in operating EPS due to lower sales and higher O&M expenses, occurring once every 3 years.

    Equity dilution impact on earnings growth
    250 bps
    Long-term

    Causes a difference between rate base and long-term earnings growth guidance, due to annual issuance of roughly 2.5% of market cap.

    CVOW additional cost per quarter (beyond July 2027)
    $150M-$200M
    Per quarter

    Estimated additional cost if turbine installation extends beyond the current schedule contingency.

    CVOW deliverability assumption
    50%
    Ongoing

    Assumed for the rider, pending PJM interim deliverability study results.

    Economic development jobs created
    3,600+
    Last year

    From projects supported by the economic development team.

    Economic development capital investment attracted
    $7.4B
    Last year

    From projects supported by the economic development team.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Multi year capital plan$65BUSD
    Regulatory rate base growth10%%
    Adjusted EPS dividend growth$3.40-$3.60USD
    Major regulated project construction progress$11.5BUSD
    Combined electric gas framework state mandates
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate case calendar by j10.4%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Data center demand pipeline48 GWDecember 2025

    1.4 GW increase (3%) vs. September

    In various stages of contracting (Substation Engineering Letters of Authorization, Construction Letters of Authorization, Electrical Service Agreements).

    Signed ESA and CLOA contracts (data centers)20+ GWQ4 FY25

    These contracts cover forecasted data center demand through 2045.

    Capital programs

    3
    5-year total capital planunderway$65B
    Funding: 60% operating cash flows, 10% net hybrid issuance, 10% common equity (DRIP/ATM), 20% long/short-term debt
    Start: FY26

    Benefit: Supports investment base CAGR of ~10%

    Increased by 30% from prior estimate of $50 billion. Over 90% of the increase is at Dominion Energy Virginia. Nearly two-thirds eligible for rider recovery. Includes electric T&D, generation (gas CTs/CCGTs), and PJM transmission projects.

    Chesterfield Energy Reliability Centerapproved$1.5B

    Benefit: 1 GW gas-fired electric generating facility

    Approved by Virginia SCC with Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity and rider. Addresses an imminent reliability threat.

    PJM Transmission Projectsawarded$5B+

    Portfolio of projects awarded by PJM in the latest transmission open window process. Represents the largest proposed investment by Dominion Energy Virginia since PJM began its open window process.

    Risks & headwinds

    9
    Millstone double outage year2026

    Reduces operating EPS by $0.08-$0.10

    RNG 45Z credit income uncertainty2026 and beyond

    Reflects updated credit scoring and lower production assumptions, contributing $0.07 to 2026 EPS midpoint

    Mitigation: Guidance incorporates range of likely outcomes; will update disclosures as needed.

    Lower future day rate assumptions for CharybdisLong-term

    Headwind to earnings growth

    Higher financing costsOngoing

    Increased parent-level interest-related expense

    Mitigation: Thoughtful financing plan, including hybrid issuance and programmatic equity, to support credit ratings.

    Equity dilutionLong-term

    Causes ~250 bps difference between rate base and long-term earnings growth

    Mitigation: Programmatic equity issuance (approx. 2.5% of market cap annually) viewed as prudent and EPS accretive.

    CVOW turbine installation delaysQ4 FY25 / Q1 FY26

    Human performance error caused nearly 2-week delay for blade replacement

    Mitigation: Learning from experience, not expecting repeat delays; current project budget includes schedule contingency through July 2027.

    Potential tariff exposure for CVOWOngoing

    Reviewing Supreme Court tariff ruling for impact on budget

    Mitigation: Will update budget in the future as appropriate.

    Regulatory lag in South CarolinaFront half of 2026

    Underearning by as much as 150-200 bps before rate relief

    Mitigation: Filed electric rate case application; encouraged by legislative activity like RSA for more frequent rate cases.

    Legislative changes to data center tax benefits in VirginiaOngoing legislative session

    Potential elimination of tax shield

    Mitigation: Advocating for data centers as beneficial to state and local economies.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Why is 2026/2027 EPS growth at 6% despite higher CapEx, and where is the conservatism, especially regarding Millstone?

    Management explained that the consensus for 2026 included higher 45Z credits, which they've reduced. They maintain conservatism regarding Millstone's post-2029 pricing. The strong tailwinds from capital investment are expected to manifest more strongly towards the back end of the 5-year plan, justifying the current 6% growth for 2026-2027.

    Our motto is to underpromise and overdeliver, and that's what we anticipate to continue to do going forward.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Steven Ridge

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) Project Update

    The CVOW project is now over 70% complete and remains on track for delivery of first power to the grid by the end of March. Key milestones achieved include the installation of 176 monopiles faster than expected, over 70% of transition pieces installed, and the third and final offshore substation installed. The project budget stands at $11.5 billion, including $155 million in unused contingency. The company is reviewing the Supreme Court tariff ruling for potential impacts on the budget.

    02

    Accelerating Data Center Demand and Capital Plan Expansion

    Dominion Energy is observing accelerating electric demand growth, particularly from data centers, with over 48 gigawatts in various stages of contracting as of December 2025. This high-quality demand, based on meter-level historical data and long-term relationships, has led to a 30% increase in the 5-year total capital estimate, from $50 billion to approximately $65 billion. Over 90% of this increase is at Dominion Energy Virginia, with nearly two-thirds eligible for recovery under rider mechanisms, driving a 10% compounded annual growth rate of the investment base.

    03

    Customer Affordability and Operational Efficiency

    The company maintains a strong focus on customer affordability, with current customer rates at Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) and Dominion Energy South Carolina (DESC) 4% and 12% lower than the national average, respectively. Typical residential rates are expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of around 2.6% at DEV and 2.8% at DESC. Dominion Energy also demonstrates a proven track record of operational efficiency, ranking among the most efficient companies in the industry based on FERC data, and continuously works to improve O&M costs.

    04

    Financing Strategy for Expanded Capital Plan

    The expanded $65 billion 5-year capital plan is supported by a thoughtful financing approach. Nearly 60% of investing cash flows and projected dividends will be satisfied by internally generated operating cash flows. Approximately 10% will come from net hybrid issuance, 10% from common equity issued via DRIP and ATM programs, and the remaining 20% from long- and short-term debt. This plan is designed to support robust credit expectations and maintain strong investment-grade ratings.

    05

    Regulatory and Transmission Project Developments

    The Virginia State Corporation Commission approved large load provisions to ensure fair cost allocation and mitigate stranded asset risk. The SCC also approved the Certificate for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center, an approximately 1 gigawatt gas-fired facility expected to cost $1.5 billion and be in service in 2029. PJM awarded Dominion Energy a portfolio of transmission projects totaling over $5 billion, with various in-service dates through 2032. Dominion Energy South Carolina filed an electric rate case application to support $1.4 billion invested in its system since 2023.

    06

    Millstone Nuclear Power Station Performance and Future

    Millstone Nuclear Power Station continues to be a critical asset, providing over 90% of Connecticut's carbon-free electricity. In 2025, the facility achieved a capacity factor of over 91%. While 55% of its output is under a fixed-price contract through late 2029, the remaining output is derisked by a hedging program. Millstone is eligible for the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection's zero carbon energy RFP, with bids due in March, and the company is also evaluating supporting incremental data center activity in Connecticut.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.