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    DAL
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    DELTA AIR LINES, INC. DAL

    Jan 10, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Delta Air Lines Q4 FY24 — Record Profit and Strong 2025 Outlook

    Delta Air Lines closed FY24 with record December quarter profit and revenue, driven by strong demand, premium product growth, and operational excellence. The company is leveraging innovation and strategic partnerships to enhance customer experience and loyalty, positioning itself for record profitability in 2025. Management highlighted a constructive industry backdrop and robust consumer spending on experiences, with a focus on efficient growth and continued debt reduction.

    Highlights

    5
    • Reported a December quarter pretax profit of $1.6 billion, the largest in Delta's history, improving over $500 million year-over-year.

    • Achieved record revenue of $14.4 billion in the December quarter, 5.7% higher than 2023 and above guidance.

    • Delivered industry-leading operational performance with #1 system completion factor and on-time performance among peers.

    • Generated $3.4 billion in free cash flow for FY24, a nearly $1.5 billion improvement over 2023.

    • Balance sheet returned to investment-grade level at all 3 major credit agencies, with gross leverage at 2.6x.

    Concerns

    1
    • LA wildfires caused a decline in sales in the affected geographic region, though not expected to be significant to the quarter.

    Guidance & targets

    20
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Earnings Per Share
    greater than $7.35
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Free Cash Flow
    greater than $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    March Quarter Revenue Growth
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    March Quarter Operating Margin
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    March Quarter Earnings Per Share
    $0.70 to $1
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Capacity Growth (ASMs)
    3% to 4%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Co-brand Remuneration Growth
    high single-digit growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-term Co-brand Remuneration Goal
    $10 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    March Quarter Nonfuel Unit Cost Growth
    up low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Nonfuel Unit Cost Growth
    up low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Gross Leverage
    2x or less
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Gross Leverage Target
    1x
    high materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2025 Capital Reinvestment
    $5 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Debt Maturities Repayment
    $3 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Target
    15%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q1 FY25 Capacity Growth
    4.5% to 5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 FY25 Capacity Growth
    reduction from Q1
    medium materiality
    High
    Mid-year 2025 Capacity Growth
    low point for year-over-year growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Aircraft Deliveries
    around 40
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Aircraft Retirements
    closer to 30
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Total Company
    Record December quarter revenue and profit, with operating margins up 2 points year-over-year.
    $14.4B5.7%12% operating margin
    Domestic
    Demand remains robust with considerable improvement in the supply backdrop as unprofitable supply is removed across the industry. 80% of 2025 growth will be in core hubs.
    Unit revenue: picked up nicely following the election
    Transatlantic
    Benefiting from strong U.S. point of sale and an extension of the season with unprecedented off-peak results. Good visibility into spring and summer, expecting another record year.
    Unit revenue: expected to lead at up mid-single digits for the second quarter in a row
    Record profitability expected
    Latin
    Capacity investments maturing, particularly in long-haul South America with increased connectivity with LATAM. Moving into a more mature position in Deep South America.
    Unit revenue: expected to improve sequentially for the third consecutive quarter and inflect positive
    Pacific
    Trends are improving sequentially. Korean Air's acquisition of Asiana is expected to expand joint venture opportunities and connectivity.
    Overall revenue growth: leadingUnit revenue: expected to be modestly negative on mid-teens capacity increases
    Record margins

    Operational metrics

    20
    Pretax Profit
    $1.6 billionup over $500 million YoY
    Q4 FY24
    Full-year Pretax Income
    $5.2 billion
    FY24
    Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
    13%
    FY24
    Profit Sharing Payout
    $1.4 billion
    FY24

    To be paid on Valentine's Day in February.

    Debt Repayment
    $4 billion
    FY24
    Gross Leverage
    2.6x
    End of FY24
    Unencumbered Assets
    $30 billion
    End of FY24
    Non-GAAP EPS (normalized)
    $6.61
    FY24

    Calculated by adding back the $0.45 impact of the CrowdStrike outage to the reported $6.16 EPS.

    Total Unit Revenue Growth
    0.4 pointsover prior year
    Q4 FY24
    Cash Sales Growth
    double-digit growth
    Post-election

    Driven by both leisure and corporate travelers.

    Corporate Sales Growth
    10%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Broad-based strength geographically and across all sectors.

    American Express Remuneration
    $2 billionup 14% YoY
    Q4 FY24
    Full-year American Express Remuneration
    $7.4 billion
    FY24
    Premium Revenue Growth
    8%over prior year
    FY24

    Outpaced Main Cabin throughout the year.

    Total Loyalty Revenue Growth
    9%over 2023
    FY24
    Cargo Revenue Growth
    14%over 2023
    FY24
    Headcount Growth
    2%vs 6% airline growth
    FY24

    Headcount growth was below capacity growth, ending the year flat year-over-year.

    Aircraft Retirements
    just over 20
    FY24
    Aircraft Deliveries
    just over 38
    FY24

    Fewer deliveries than expected.

    Non-OpEx
    flattish
    FY25

    Expected to be around $800 million, with moving pieces from equity earnings and lack of reoccurring gains.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Fuel
    Casm exlow single digits%
    Capacity3% to 4%%
    Fleet mrojust over 20aircraft
    Unit revenue0.4 points%
    Loyalty co brand$7.4 billionUSD
    Demand indicators10%%
    Premium diverse revenue mix57%%

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Delta Conciergelaunch
    Delta Sync with YouTubelaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    UberExclusive partnership for SkyMiles members to earn miles on eligible rides and deliveries.

    SkyMiles members will earn miles for eligible rides and deliveries in the U.S. This unique relationship creates new opportunities to integrate further and expands our partnerships with category leaders, broadening the Delta SkyMiles ecosystem and the range of benefits we provide to our members every day.

    Korean AirKorean Air closing its acquisition of Asiana.

    Delta congratulates Korean Air on closing their acquisition of Asiana. This merger will facilitate even better connectivity and opportunity for further -- to further expand our operations to Seoul over the coming years.

    Capital programs

    1
    Airport Developmentsnearing completion

    Benefit: premium ground experience unique to Delta

    2025 is the final year of these generational airport developments. Cost per employment will improve over time as Delta grows into these assets.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    LA wildfires impact on salescurrent period

    decline in sales

    Mitigation: Not expected to be significant to the quarter; historically, natural disasters are followed by an uptick in demand for rebuilding.

    Tariffs on aircraft deliveries

    potential impact

    Mitigation: Delta has alternative ways to receive aircraft deliveries to mitigate impact, as used in the last Trump administration. Hope that Airbus is not subject to tariffs due to substantial U.S. production.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    4

    Main Cabin RASM acceleration

    through the year
    Currentunder a lot of duress
    Targetaccelerate

    Why it matters

    Upside surprise for Delta's margins if Main Cabin RASM accelerates due to improved industry capacity dynamics.

    I think the upside surprise for us would be if Main Cabin starts to accelerate as we move through the year, given the fact that capacity in the industry level has come down significantly in that pool.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Given the strong Q1 outlook and mid-single-digit full-year revenue growth assumption, does the >$7.35 EPS guidance bake in a conservative back-half revenue outlook, and what else drives potential upside?

    The guidance focuses on controllable factors like capacity deployment, premium revenue, and loyalty growth, providing confidence for Q1 and H1. The potential for additional margin upside in the Main Cabin, as the industry backdrop evolves in the second half, could drive further upside beyond the stated >$7.35 EPS.

    And as I mentioned in the note, I think the industry construct and how it evolves through the year and especially the back half as it relates to Main Cabin that we've talked about, that could provide additional upside as it relates to margins as we progress through the year.

    asked by Catherine O'Brien · answered by Daniel Janki

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strong Q4 and Full-Year 2024 Performance

    Delta reported a record December quarter pretax profit of $1.6 billion and earnings per share of $1.85, at the top end of guidance. Full-year 2024 saw $57 billion in record revenue, a double-digit operating margin, and $5.2 billion in pretax income, representing nearly 50% of the industry's profitability. The company achieved a 13% return on invested capital and generated $3.4 billion in free cash flow, leading to $4 billion in debt repayment and an upgrade to investment-grade status by all three major credit agencies.

    02

    Employee Recognition and Profit Sharing

    Delta recognized its 100,000 employees with a 5% pay increase in 2024 and announced a $1.4 billion profit-sharing payout on Valentine's Day in February. This payout is expected to be one of the top three in Delta's history and more than the rest of the industry combined, underscoring the company's commitment to its workforce as a key competitive advantage.

    03

    Innovation and Strategic Partnerships

    At CES 2025, Delta unveiled new initiatives to enhance the travel experience, including Delta Concierge (a generative AI-powered digital assistant in the Fly Delta app), an exclusive partnership with YouTube for ad-free premium content on Delta Sync seatback screens, and a new partnership with Uber allowing SkyMiles members to earn miles on eligible rides and deliveries. These efforts aim to deepen customer loyalty and expand the SkyMiles ecosystem beyond air travel.

    04

    Robust Demand and Industry Dynamics

    The U.S. consumer remains financially healthy, prioritizing experiences, leading to accelerated air travel demand from both corporates and consumers. Post-election, Delta recorded four of its top ten revenue days in history, with double-digit growth in cash sales. Corporate sales grew 10% year-over-year in Q4, improving sequentially, and co-brand card spending accelerated, contributing to a constructive industry backdrop with improving supply-demand balance.

    05

    Capacity and Cost Management for 2025

    For 2025, Delta plans to increase capacity by 3% to 4%, with over 85% of incremental seats in premium cabins and 80% of domestic growth in core hubs. The company expects low single-digit nonfuel unit cost growth, driven by better utilization of assets, normalization of maintenance expenses, and growing into its workforce. Half of the capacity growth will come from improved utilization of mainline and regional fleets, with regional fleets returning to full flying.

    06

    Transatlantic Strength and International Outlook

    Transatlantic unit revenue is expected to lead with mid-single-digit growth for the second consecutive quarter, benefiting from strong U.S. point of sale and extended off-peak season demand. Latin unit revenue is expected to inflect positive sequentially, while Pacific unit revenues are modestly negative on mid-teens capacity increases but show sequential improvement and record margins. The Korean Air/Asiana merger is expected to further expand joint venture opportunities in the Pacific.

    07

    Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation

    Delta's strong cash generation supported $4 billion in debt repayment in 2024, ending the year with gross leverage at 2.6x. For 2025, the company expects to generate over $4 billion in free cash flow, reinvest $5 billion into the business (including 40 aircraft deliveries), and pay cash for $3 billion of 2025 debt maturities, aiming for gross leverage of 2x or less and progressing towards a long-term target of 1x.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.