Detailed narrative
Full-year 2025: all targets delivered, record profitability
Deutsche Bank reported 2025 revenues of EUR 32B, up 7% YoY and 26% since 2021, a 6% CAGR at the midpoint of the 5.5%-6.5% target. Cost discipline drove noninterest expenses down 10% to EUR 20.7B, nearly EUR 1B below 2021, producing 17% operating leverage and pre-provision profit of EUR 11.4B (up threefold since 2021).
Pretax profit hit a record EUR 9.7B (+84% YoY), net profit EUR 7.1B, and post-tax RoTE 10.3%, meeting the >10% target. All four divisions delivered double-digit returns and lower cost/income ratios versus 2021.
Next-phase strategy: scaling the Global Hausbank to 2028
Management framed 2026 as the first year of a pivot from defense to offense. The 2028 roadmap targets post-tax RoTE >13% (from 10.3%) and cost/income below 60% (from 64%), via three levers: focused growth, strict capital discipline and a scalable operating model.
Payout ratio rises to 60% from 2026. Of an expected EUR 5B German-stimulus-linked revenue uplift, only a low-three-digit-million amount is in the 2026 plan, with the bulk deliberately placed in 2027-2028 as defense and infrastructure financing, then broader corporate activity, ramps.
Capital, distributions and regulatory tailwinds
CET1 finished at 14.2% after 44bps of Q4 one-off📎 headwinds (OCI-filter discontinuation 27bps, operational-risk RWA update 17bps) plus 9bps of higher market RWA, partly offset by 21bps of capital generation. The EUR 2.9B of proposed 2025 distributions are already deducted.
Leverage ratio held at 4.6%, aided by the November EUR 1B AT1 issuance. Management signalled that a European reconsideration of regulation makes the conservatively-planned FRTB impact look unlikely to land as assumed, representing upside/cushion to the plan.
Net interest income and the structural hedge
Banking-book NII was EUR 3.4B in Q4 and EUR 13.3B for 2025, guided to ~EUR 14B in 2026. The largest contributor is structural hedge rollover, ~90% locked through swaps, with the rollover gap versus the 10-year swap rate widening to ~2.5% (from 1.9% a year earlier), worth as much as EUR 500M.
Targeted deposit and loan growth add further, though deliberate SVA-driven loan-portfolio exits and first-half margin/FX grow-over effects mute the underlying operating growth of NII.
Credit quality and commercial real estate
Full-year provisions were EUR 1.7B, down 7% YoY despite macro uncertainty🌐 and CRE headwinds. Q4 provisions were stable overall as higher Stage 3 (Corporate Bank middle-market events, one larger IB CRE single name) was offset by Stage 1/2 releases on improved macro forecasts.
Management sees the current ~36-38bps cost of risk trending toward ~30bps by 2028. US West Coast office remains the key CRE tail; Q4 saw ~EUR 2B of office exits (loan sales plus payoffs), which raised the remaining book's average LTV; further appraisal downward revisions remain possible.
CFO transition and cultural legacy
This was James von Moltke's final results presentation after joining as CFO in 2017; Raja Akram succeeds him. Sewing and von Moltke framed the tenure's key legacy as an instilled culture of accountability, discipline and long-term thinking, exemplified by the deliberate 2024 decision to raise the cost/income target to capture long-term investment upside.
Von Moltke highlighted Shareholder Value Add (SVA) tools, originated in finance and adopted firm-wide, as a significant forward driver of decision-making.
AML investigation disclosure
Management confirmed a prosecutor visit to its offices concerning transactions dating to 2013-2018, with an allegation of potentially delayed suspicious-activity reporting that builds on earlier investigations of a similar nature. Timing was called unfortunate given the results. The bank said it is cooperating fully and does not anticipate any impact on its financial or strategic plans.