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    DOW
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    DOW INC. DOW

    Jul 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Dow Q2 FY26 — Strong Earnings Growth Driven by Self-Help Actions and Market Tailwinds

    Dow delivered solid Q2 FY26 results, driven by improved market fundamentals and disciplined execution of self-help initiatives. The company is focused on strategic priorities including focused growth, portfolio competitiveness, and balanced capital allocation, aiming for enhanced earnings durability and stronger cash flow through the cycle. Management highlighted the significant impact of its cost savings and Transform to Outperform programs, which are ahead of schedule and contributing to financial flexibility despite a volatile macroeconomic environment.

    Highlights

    5
    • Net sales increased 20% year-over-year to $12.1 billion.

    • Operating EBITDA reached $2.3 billion, reflecting meaningful earnings growth and margin expansion.

    • Delivered over $300 million in benefits from targeted self-help actions in the quarter.

    • Completed the $1 billion 2025 cost savings program.

    • Transform to Outperform program expected to deliver an upsized benefit of $700 million this year, up from $500 million.

    Concerns

    5
    • Polyethylene volumes declined in Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, and Asia Pacific.

    • Operating rates in hydrocarbons and energy business declined to 84% due to planned maintenance.

    • Performance Materials & Coatings Operating EBIT was down year-over-year to $133 million due to higher costs and planned maintenance.

    • Geopolitical tensions remain elevated in the Middle East, with logistics constrained and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz below historical levels.

    • Regional consumer demand in Asia Pacific remains soft with weakened retail sales in May.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Third Quarter EBITDA
    approximately $1.7 billion
    high materiality
    Medium
    Total Self-Help Benefits
    more than $1.3 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Transform to Outperform Benefits
    approximately $700 million
    high materiality
    High
    Transform to Outperform Total Opportunity
    $2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    EBITDA Uplift from Barry Siloxanes Unit Shutdown (H2 FY26)
    $60 million
    medium materiality
    High
    EBITDA Uplift from Dow Role Reduction (H2 FY26)
    $200 million
    medium materiality
    High
    EBITDA Uplift from Site Transformation Playbook (H2 FY26)
    $50 million
    low materiality
    High
    Working Capital Release
    minimum release of more than $500 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Polyethylene Price Movement
    no additional quarterly price movement
    high materiality
    Medium
    Q3 FY26 EBITDA
    approximately $1.75 billion
    high materiality
    Low
    Total EBITDA
    from $2 billion to $2.2 billion
    high materiality
    Low

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Packaging & Specialty Plastics
    Driven by higher polyethylene pricing across all regions and applications, offsetting lower polyethylene volumes. Hydrocarbons and energy net sales increased due to higher olefins pricing, despite lower volumes from planned maintenance. Terneuzen cracker restarted to optimize margins.
    Polyethylene pricing: up more than 40% (local price)Polyethylene volumes: declined in Europe, MEAI, Asia Pacific; grew in AmericasHydrocarbons and energy operating rates: 84%
    $6.4 billionup 27%Operating EBIT approximately $1.3 billion
    Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure
    Strong year-over-year improvement driven by local price gains across both businesses and all regions. Supported by higher margins, self-help initiatives, and lower plant maintenance. Polyurethanes and construction chemicals benefited from price gains. Industrial solutions sales improved from Constellation growth investments. Includes incremental earnings from a noncore land sale in Taiwan.
    Local price: up 15%Incremental earnings from land sale: $50 million
    up 14%Operating EBIT improved to $246 million
    Performance Materials & Coatings
    Solid top-line growth from increased volume and price, particularly in downstream silicones and architectural coatings. Operating EBIT was down year-over-year due to higher costs, planned maintenance, and the shutdown of the Barry siloxanes unit, which offset price/volume gains and self-help actions.
    Volume gains: led by downstream silicones, acrylic monomers, architectural coatingsConsumer solutions: benefited from gains in consumer, electronics, home care
    up 11%Operating EBIT was $133 million

    Operational metrics

    17
    Operating EBITDA
    $2.3 billion
    Q2 FY26

    Reported operating EBITDA for the quarter.

    Net Sales
    $12.1 billion20% increase versus year ago period
    Q2 FY26

    Reported net sales for the quarter.

    Self-Help Benefits
    $300 million
    Q2 FY26

    Benefits delivered in the quarter through targeted self-help actions.

    Self-Help Benefits
    $190 millionvs. $100 million committed
    H1 FY26

    Self-help benefits delivered in the first half of the year, exceeding commitment.

    Land Sale Earnings
    $50 million
    Q2 FY26

    Incremental earnings from the sale of noncore land in Taiwan.

    Polyethylene Integrated Margins Decline
    $0.10 per poundsequential decline vs Q2
    Q3 FY26

    Assumed decline in global integrated polyethylene margins for Q3 guidance.

    Polyethylene Price Increase
    $0.05 per pound
    July 2026

    Announced price increase in North America due to changing market dynamics.

    Nova Litigation Compensation
    $1 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Compensation received from Nova litigation in the first quarter.

    Nova Litigation Compensation Remaining
    $300 million
    Q3 FY26

    Remaining compensation received early in the third quarter from Nova litigation.

    Debt Paid Down
    $80 million
    Q2 FY26

    Amount of debt paid down during the second quarter.

    Total Available Liquidity
    $14 billion
    Q2 FY26

    Total available liquidity maintained by the company.

    SG&A as % of Sales
    close to 6%top quartile
    Q2 FY26

    SG&A as a percentage of sales, noted as top quartile.

    2025 EBITDA
    $3.2 billion
    FY25

    Analyst's reference to 2025 EBITDA as a base for future projections.

    2025 EBITDA
    $3.3 billion
    FY25

    Management's reference to 2025 EBITDA as a base for self-help commitments.

    Operating Rates
    above 90%
    Q3 FY26

    Expected operating rates for the third quarter.

    Silicone Downstream Growth
    double-digit growth
    current

    Strong growth observed in downstream silicones.

    Downstream Silicone Returns
    20% or higher
    current

    Expected returns on volume sold in downstream silicones.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Volume vs price splitPolyethylene pricing up more than 40% (local price)%
    Helium supply demand pricing
    Productivity cost savings program$2 billionUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Order bookspicked upJuly 2026

    increased order loading

    More orders coming in from China, supporting potential polyethylene price increases.

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Dow Coolant Care Networklaunch
    Specialty Siliconesexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    P&G and UnivarLong-term agreements for low carbon products

    Progressed long-term agreements to lock in durable, high-quality demands for low carbon products across key markets.

    Capital programs

    6
    2025 Cost Savings Programcompleted$1 billion
    Spent to date: materially completed
    Start: January 2025

    Materially completed the remaining cost savings associated with the program announced in January 2025.

    Transform to Outperformunderway$2 billion
    Period spend: $700 million (FY26)
    Spent to date: $190 million (H1 FY26)

    Benefit: 2/3 from productivity, 1/3 from growth; includes 4,500 Dow role reductions and site transformation playbook.

    Expected to deliver an upsized benefit of approximately $700 million this year, demonstrating early value capture. Remains confident in the $2 billion total opportunity by the end of 2028.

    Upstream Siloxanes Unit Shutdown (Barry, UK)shut down

    Benefit: Represents approximately 25% of European siloxane industry capacity; expected to deliver $60 million of EBITDA uplift in H2 FY26.

    Shut down the upstream, higher-cost siloxanes unit in Barry, United Kingdom, aligning with European asset actions to reshape the Performance Materials & Coatings portfolio.

    European Cracker Restart (Terneuzen)restarted

    Benefit: Lowest-cost, most flexible European cracker; first-quartile cracker in the region.

    Restarted the lowest-cost and most flexible European cracker in Terneuzen, Netherlands, which had been idled since mid-2025, to match market conditions and optimize margins.

    Bohlen Cracker Shutdownon track

    Shutdown of the Bohlen cracker remains on track for completion in 2027.

    Alberta Projectprogressing as planned
    Spent to date: 60% of CapEx met

    Project is progressing as planned, with focus on disciplined completion and maximizing returns. About 40% less to spend, mostly on labor. Incentives remain intact, and most critical labor contracts awarded.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Geopolitical Tensions and Logistics ConstraintsQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below historical levels

    Mitigation: Global asset footprint provides supply reliability; customers focusing on supply reliability.

    Soft Consumer Demand in Asia PacificQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Weakened retail sales in May

    Mitigation: Industrial production and manufacturing activity have recently accelerated, refinery operations normalizing in China.

    Structural Pressures in EuropeQ2 FY26, ongoing

    High operating and labor costs persist

    Mitigation: Emerging constructive dynamics including government support and trade protection measures (e.g., EU anti-dumping/anti-subsidy actions).

    U.S. Housing Market SoftnessQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Under the weight of affordability concerns and high mortgage rates

    Mitigation: Americas consumers remained steady, economic activity constructive, and spending held up.

    Volatile Macro EnvironmentOngoing

    Oil up $10 just the beginning of the week to now; Red Sea [indiscernible] yesterday

    Mitigation: Disciplined execution, maximizing the quarter, taking action to manage what's in control, clear path to long-term value creation.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Polyethylene Price Movement

    Q3 FY26
    CurrentQ3 guide assumes no further price movement after June $0.15/lb decline
    TargetRealization of $0.05/lb North America price increase

    Why it matters

    Potential upside to Q3 EBITDA guidance if price increases materialize due to rising crude oil and feedstock prices, and declining China inventories.

    So if they do occur, that would be an upside to the $1.7 billion guide. But what I would say is that things continue to be volatile. We're going to work on maximizing the quarter, as we always do.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How are crude oil price rallies and Strait of Hormuz blockages factored into Q3 PE pricing guidance? What about China's destocking and potential restock?

    Q3 guidance assumes a $0.10/lb decline in global integrated margins, incorporating the $0.15/lb June settlement with no further price movement. However, recent oil price increases, Red Sea disruptions, and declining inventories in China suggest potential upside. Dow has announced a $0.05/lb price increase in North America, which could lead to an upside to the $1.7 billion EBITDA guide if it materializes.

    So if they do occur, that would be an upside to the $1.7 billion guide. But what I would say is that things continue to be volatile. We're going to work on maximizing the quarter, as we always do.

    asked by Hassan Ahmed · answered by Karen Carter

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    CEO Priorities for Long-Term Value Creation

    Newly appointed CEO Karen Carter outlined three core priorities for Dow: driving focused growth and innovation in high-value markets, enhancing portfolio competitiveness through a "best owner mindset," and maintaining a balanced capital allocation approach. These priorities leverage Dow's strong portfolio, global asset base, customer relationships, and talent to build a more competitive company and consistently deliver long-term value. The company aims to strengthen its balance sheet, focus on cash flow, and ensure maximum financial flexibility.

    02

    Data Center Market Opportunity

    Dow is actively capitalizing on the rapid growth in data centers by providing solutions for thermal management, water usage, energy demand, and noise abatement. The company partners with hyperscalers and industry leaders, offering closed-loop liquid cooling solutions, advanced thermal fluids, carbon mitigation technologies, and acoustic materials. The recent launch of the Dow Coolant Care Network expands its integrated service model to improve cooling system reliability, reduce operational risk, and maximize uptime for data center customers, representing a significant growth area for the DIS business.

    03

    Portfolio Optimization and Asset Actions

    Dow is strategically optimizing its portfolio, including the shutdown of its upstream, higher-cost siloxanes unit in Barry, UK, which represented approximately 25% of European siloxane industry capacity. This action is expected to deliver $60 million in EBITDA uplift in H2 FY26 and reshapes the Performance Materials & Coatings portfolio towards downstream differentiated products. Additionally, the lowest-cost European cracker in Terneuzen was restarted, while the Bohlen cracker shutdown remains on track for 2027, and the Alberta project is progressing as planned, all aimed at improving asset flexibility and cost position.

    04

    Financial Discipline and Capital Allocation

    Dow maintains a consistent approach to financial discipline, aiming to enhance its balance sheet and financial performance. The company has approximately $14 billion in total available liquidity and no substantive debt maturities until 2029, supported by a recently extended revolving credit facility to 2031. Excess cash will be prioritized towards deleveraging, with approximately $80 million of debt already paid down in Q2. The company also expects a minimum release of over $500 million in working capital in H2 FY26 and received $1 billion from Nova litigation in Q1, with an additional $300 million in Q3.

    05

    Self-Help Initiatives and Productivity Gains

    Dow's self-help commitment is expected to generate over $1.3 billion in benefits this year, an increase of $200 million from the prior target. This includes the material completion of the $1 billion 2025 cost savings program and an upsized $700 million benefit from the Transform to Outperform program for FY26. The Transform to Outperform initiative, targeting $2 billion by 2028, is seeing early success with 55% of 4,500 planned role reductions implemented, contributing $200 million EBITDA uplift in H2, and site transformation playbooks delivering $50 million EBITDA uplift in H2.

    06

    Market Dynamics and Regional Outlook

    The company is navigating a dynamic macro environment with mixed demand signals and geopolitical volatility🌐. While packaging remains resilient and data center demand is strong, regional consumer demand in Asia Pacific is soft, and the Middle East faces elevated tensions and logistics constraints. Europe shows signs of constructive dynamics with government support and trade protection measures, despite persistent structural pressures. North America's economy is constructive, though the housing market remains soft. Dow is focused on maximizing the quarter and adapting to changing market conditions, such as recent increases in oil and polyethylene prices.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.