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    EIX
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    EDISON INTERNATIONAL Q1 FY26 earnings call EIX

    Apr 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Edison International Q1 FY26 — Core EPS $1.42, full-year guidance reaffirmed with no new equity through 2030

    Edison enters 2026 on a cleaner regulatory slate — the 2025 GRC, cost of capital and legacy wildfire recoveries resolved through 2028 — shifting the story from litigation drag to disciplined, self-funded capital execution and an aggressive affordability message. The forward thesis leans on regulated rate-base growth financed without new equity, while unresolved Eaton fire liability and California's pending wildfire-reform legislation stay the swing factors.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q1 2026 core EPS of $1.42, up $0.05 YoY, driven by adoption of the 2025 GRC decision

    • Reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90-$6.20 and 5%-7% long-term core EPS growth, plus 2027/2028/2030 targets

    • Plan to fund the $38B-$41B 2026-2030 capital plan with no new common equity through 2030 (only ~$400M issued over the last 5 years); committed to 15%-17% FFO-to-debt

    • Distribution physical hardening in high fire-risk areas ~93% complete; more than 7,100 miles of covered conductor and nearly 100 miles of undergrounding deployed

    • SCE rate base CAGR of ~7% (2025-2030) with an approved GRC covering the bulk of the plan through 2028 and a 'cleaner' 2026 regulatory slate

    Concerns

    4
    • Eaton fire liability remains unestimable — over 1,500 offers/$500M+ extended against ~3,100 claims filed but ~30,000 plaintiffs and ~18,000 eligible properties; property-damage statute of limitations runs to January 2028

    • Absence of ~$0.30 of Q1 2025 TKM cost-recovery earnings was a YoY headwind to the quarter

    • SB 254 wildfire-reform legislative outcome is uncertain — management warns that no action in 2026 could trigger credit-rating impacts across California sectors and force a rethink of cost of capital and capital allocation

    • Affordability/political pressure, including gubernatorial-primary rhetoric (a candidate's 25% rate-cut / utility break-up claim management disputes)

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 core EPS
    $5.90 to $6.20
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term core EPS growth rate
    5% to 7%
    high materiality
    High
    Core EPS targets for 2027, 2028 and 2030
    Reaffirmed (previously provided targets)
    high materiality
    High
    New common equity issuance need
    No new common equity for at least the next 5 years through 2030
    high materiality
    High
    SCE rate increase trajectory vs inflation
    Rate increases at or below inflation through 2030
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Unbilled revenue savings from AI usage-monitoring tool
    roughly $25 million over a 3- to 6-month period
    low materiality
    Low

    Operational metrics

    7
    Core EPS
    $1.42up $0.05 YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Non-GAAP core EPS with the management-provided YoY variance bridge (Page 4 of materials).

    Dividend per share increase
    5% to 6%
    declared December 2025

    Rigatti cited the Board's December dividend increase as part of the commitment to the dividend alongside the no-new-equity plan.

    Common equity issued (trailing 5 years)
    ~$400 million
    last 5 years

    Cited as evidence of cost-effective credit-metric management and support for the no-new-equity-through-2030 plan.

    Distribution physical hardening completion (high fire-risk areas)
    ~93%
    as of Q1 FY26

    Planned physical hardening of the distribution system in high fire-risk areas; reflects years of covered conductor and targeted undergrounding investment.

    Covered conductor deployed
    more than 7,100 miles
    cumulative as of Q1 FY26

    Base of SCE's wildfire risk-reduction across the system, layered with seasonal inspections and PSPS.

    Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program (Eaton) offers
    over 1,500 offers totaling over $500 millionup ~3x claims vs the February update (per analyst)
    as of Q1 FY26

    Out-of-court compensation program for Eaton fire community members; management cannot forecast ultimate participation or loss.

    AI/ML detection capability
    nearly 100 unique object classes and dozens of defect conditions
    developed and deployed since 2023

    AI/ML models used to improve grid inspections, diagnostics and quality control; complemented by LiDAR and satellite imagery for vegetation management.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt15% to 17%%
    Regulatory rate base growth~7%% CAGR

    Capital programs

    3
    SCE 2026-2030 capital planunderway$38 billion to $41 billion
    Funding: No new common equity through 2030; funded via debt/internally generated cash within a 15%-17% FFO-to-debt framework
    Start: 2026

    Benefit: Grid investment supporting ~7% rate base CAGR (2025-2030), reliability/resilience and California clean-energy objectives

    Unchanged from last quarter; the approved 2025 GRC covers the bulk of the plan through 2028, giving high confidence in execution and recovery.

    AMI 2.0 (advanced metering modernization)application filed / pending CPUC (intervenor comments expected ~July, decision to follow)~$3.1 billion of capital investment requested (through 2033)
    Funding: Already incorporated in the existing capital plan
    Start: Filed March 2026 (deployment through 2033)

    Benefit: Replaces ~20-year-old smart meters; enables demand flexibility, DER integration, dynamic system management and quantified customer benefits (incremental benefit/cost ratio well above 1)

    About half the capital is within the current capital forecast and about half extends beyond the 2030 timeframe; supports the 5%-7% EPS growth rate.

    NextGen ERP programunderway (stand-alone application discussed in prior quarters)
    Funding: Already incorporated in the existing capital plan

    Benefit: Enterprise resource planning modernization

    One of two significant stand-alone applications alongside AMI 2.0; capital already embedded in the plan.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Eaton fire liability — unestimable exposureProperty-damage statute of limitations runs until January 2028; timing of any estimate unknown

    Over 3,100 claims filed and ~30,000 plaintiffs asserting claims vs ~18,000 eligible properties; over 1,500 offers/$500M+ extended so far, but no loss estimate or estimable range provided

    Mitigation: WRCP out-of-court program for fast/fair payments; awaiting greater claim volume and stability plus insurance-interdependency clarity before estimating

    Wildfire-reform / SB 254 legislative outcome uncertaintyLegislative session ends August 31, 2026 (bills in print by August 28); passage timing unpredictable

    Unquantified; management warns of likely credit-rating impacts across utilities, insurers, other sectors and the state financing authority if no action in 2026

    Mitigation: Active engagement with policymakers/stakeholders; advocacy for a predictable cost-of-service framework informed by the CEA study

    Cost of capital / capital allocation risk if reform stallsFuture GRC/cost-of-capital cycles if 2026 action fails

    Unquantified; a higher cost of capital would raise customer bills and could force reconsideration of future capital plans

    Mitigation: Current plan carries visibility to 2028 with no new equity through 2030; would reassess only in future cycles

    Affordability / political pressure (gubernatorial election)Ongoing through the 2026 election cycle

    Unquantified; disputed candidate claims of a 25% rate reduction from breaking up utilities and that competitive markets have the lowest rates

    Mitigation: Commitment to rate increases at or below inflation through 2030; SCE claims lowest system average rate among large California IOUs; management rebutting non-fact-based claims

    Wildfire season / weather riskSummer/peak 2026 fire season and multi-decade climate-driven trend

    Unquantified; early-season rain gave way to drier conditions, and winds are 'notoriously difficult' to forecast

    Mitigation: Distribution hardening ~93% complete, 7,100+ miles covered conductor, seasonal inspections, evolving PSPS thresholds and community outreach

    TKM cost-recovery earnings absence (YoY)Q1 FY26 YoY comparison

    ~$0.30 of Q1 2025 core EPS from the TKM cost-recovery approval did not recur in Q1 2026

    Mitigation: Partially offset by adoption of the 2025 GRC decision, leaving net core EPS up $0.05 YoY

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Across the three CEA pathways, what is Edison advocating for, where is the threshold for shareholder contribution, and when does the report go before the legislature?

    Pizarro said Edison wants broad, whole-of-society physical risk reduction plus a predictable, accountable recovery process, and specifically a return to an investor-owned-utility cost-of-service model where prudent capital earns return of and on investment and further shareholder contributions arise only where management was imprudent. He gave the one firm timing marker: the session ends August 31 and bills must be in print by August 28, but declined to predict when a deal lands, saying it could take the full session.

    we think it's really important that the state return to an investor-owned utility cost of service model

    asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Pedro Pizarro

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Wildfire mitigation and grid hardening

    SCE reports its planned physical hardening of the distribution system in high fire-risk areas is now about 93% complete, built on more than 7,100 miles of covered conductor and nearly 100 miles of undergrounding. The utility continues to evolve its Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) protocols using its weather-station network and system visibility. In March, the Office of Energy & Infrastructure Safety approved SCE's annual safety certification following an independent assessment of its Wildfire Mitigation Plan. Management stresses the effort targets multi-decade climate-driven risk, not just year-to-year conditions.

    02

    AI and operational-excellence tools

    Since 2023 SCE has deployed AI/ML models collectively capable of detecting nearly 100 unique object classes and dozens of defect conditions to improve grid inspections and quality control, and uses LiDAR and satellite imagery for proactive vegetation management. It is expanding early fault-detection tools for earlier ignition-risk awareness, and cited a rapidly built AI proof-of-concept to surface unbilled usage that could yield roughly $25M of unbilled-revenue savings over 3-6 months. Management frames AI benefits as already rolling into forecasts but too early to fully size.

    03

    Eaton fire and the Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program (WRCP)

    SCE has extended over 1,500 offers totaling over $500 million to Eaton fire community members through the WRCP, an out-of-court program intended to deliver fast, fair payments. Against those offers there are over 3,100 claims filed, roughly 30,000 plaintiffs asserting claims, and about 18,000 properties eligible in the qualifying zones (a property can have multiple claimants). Management repeatedly declined to estimate ultimate liability or even when an estimate is possible, citing claim variability and complex insurance interdependencies; the property-damage statute of limitations runs until January 2028.

    04

    SB 254, the CEA study and wildfire legislative reform

    The California Earthquake Authority released its SB 254 study, presenting three non-exclusive pathways and more than two dozen policy choices for reforming wildfire, insurance and utility systems, and reinforcing that the status quo and 'cost of inaction' are unsustainable. Edison advocates returning to an investor-owned-utility cost-of-service model with prudency-based recovery. The legislative session ends August 31 (bills in print by August 28); management cannot predict passage timing and warns that failure to act in 2026 could produce credit-rating impacts across multiple state sectors.

    05

    Capital plan, rate base and regulatory visibility

    SCE's 2026-2030 capital plan of $38-$41 billion is unchanged from last quarter and drives ~7% rate base CAGR (2025-2030). An approved 2025 GRC covers the bulk of capital through 2028, and resolution of cost of capital and legacy wildfire recoveries gives clear visibility to 2028 earnings and a 'cleaner' 2026 regulatory slate. Two stand-alone applications — NextGen ERP and the AMI 2.0 smart-meter modernization (~$3.1B requested through 2033) — are already embedded in the plan. SCE will file its RAMP application next month to inform the next GRC cycle.

    06

    Financing strategy and balance sheet

    Management underscored funding growth with no new common equity through at least 2030, building on only ~$400M of common equity issued over the prior five years, and reaffirmed commitment to a 15%-17% FFO-to-debt framework with expectation to remain within range across the forecast window — noted as one of the strongest consolidated FFO-to-debt ratios projected by S&P. Parent financing costs fell after a preferred-stock redemption, aiding the quarter.

    07

    CFO transition and board changes

    Edison announced Maria Rigatti's retirement effective September 1, with the CFO role transitioning to Aaron Moss (currently SCE CFO) on July 3; Rigatti will focus her final months on the SB 254 process and transition support. This was her 39th and final earnings call. Susan Hardwick, former CEO of American Water, joined Edison's Board, bringing over 35 years of electric and water utility leadership.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.