Energy Transfer (ET) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Are US producers changing activity/messaging on the Middle East conflict, will global buyers permanently lean on US supply, and what percent of LPG export capacity is contracted vs. open with room for longer terms/higher rates?

Mackie described a clear redirection of global demand to the US for all products, with optimism rather than a rig rush, citing Diamondback upsizing rigs and ~800,000 Mcf of North Louisiana growth by Aug/Sept. On LPG, ET has extended most contracts into the 2030s at healthy rates so little spot remains, but the ramping Flexport project leaves 1-2 spot slots a month to capture higher spreads; he expects longer terms and stronger margins over time.

“there's a very clear redirection to the U.S. for all products, LNG, NGLs, oil, et cetera”

asked by Michael Blum · answered by Marshall McCrea

With the spread-vs-commodity margin split unchanged and forward curves used, what is baked into guidance and what would drive exceeding the high end?

Dylan walked through the >$500M Q1 beat and full-year optimization capture, of which ~$300M is characterized as one-time. The ~$750M midpoint raise reflects line-of-sight outperformance across volumes, rates and spreads — hence no change to the margin pie chart. The midpoint uses a conservative price deck; prices near current levels would push ET to the high end and potentially beyond.

“Out of the $500 million, I want to point out that about $300 million of that would probably be considered onetime as we describe it”

asked by Gabriel Moreen · answered by Dylan Bramhall

Was Springerville volume contemplated in the original 2.3 Bcf Desert Southwest scope or could the base project be upsized, what further laterals are possible, and does the lateral change regulatory timelines?

Mackie separated the two: Springerville is tied to coal-plant retirements with gas sourced mostly from San Juan and/or Permian and can pull from anywhere on the Transwestern system. On Desert Southwest, he cited numerous lateral opportunities to power plants through Arizona and toward Mexico and expressed zero concern about selling the remaining capacity of what he called the largest pipeline ever built in the US.

“the vast majority of it will come from Permian Basin North San Juan”

asked by Gabriel Moreen · answered by Marshall McCrea

How much incremental volume can ET handle without new capex, where are the critical bottlenecks, and how do capital-light power/data-center gas projects create upstream synergies?

Dylan pointed to significant idle/quickly-available capacity in Mid-Con, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Northeast gathering plus NGL takeaway out of the Permian and Eagle Ford that can move higher volumes with little to no capital. Mackie added ET tries to stay ahead of bottlenecks; the Permian is bottlenecked today but should open by year-end/early 2027. He emphasized Hugh Brinson's ability to swing and backhaul volumes (e.g., from Katy) to data centers with minimal capital.

“we've got capacity to move NGLs out of the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford”

asked by Theresa Chen · answered by Dylan Bramhall

How will future Permian processing plant additions unfold given competitor announcements, and how does the ~800,000 Haynesville growth phase in and is it LNG-driven?

Mackie said ET won't build cryos that aren't fully sold out, hence fewer announcements than peers; ~550,000 Mcf/d of processing comes on by Q3, and G&P will likely propose another Delaware plant by late Q3/year-end. On Haynesville, producers with DUCs are about to ramp, with net ~500,000/d expected, mostly treated and moving into ET downstream pipes; ultimate market (likely including LNG) is controlled by third-party shippers.

“What we don't do is get out ahead of ourselves. We're not going to go out and build a bunch of cryos that aren't fully sold out”

asked by Jeremy Tonet · answered by Marshall McCrea

Were the ethane extensions to 2041 at similar rates or a step down, is the Nederland expansion driven by the Iran conflict, and has Iran driven new Lake Charles partner interest?

Mackie declined to disclose rates for competitive reasons, noting some segments tightened and some widened, but highlighted extending most ethane contracts into 2041 and near-term prospects for significant additional ethane and propane expansion at good returns. Tom said Lake Charles has seen only light inbound interest and no meaningful partner discussions, but ET remains open to ideas.

“we've expanded the vast majority of our ethane contracts into 2041”

asked by Jean Ann Salisbury · answered by Marshall McCrea

Could the next ethane export project be similar in size to the satellite JV, and which customers (e.g., Chinese) are targeted?

Mackie declined to name companies or countries but confirmed ET is chasing ethane markets globally — including some in China and others building crackers — sizing worldwide new-cracker interest at 500,000-750,000 bbl/d. Asked if the next project could be as big as the satellite JV, he replied 'Or yes, or larger.'

“there's probably between 500,000 to 750,000 barrels of ethane interest around the world on new crackers”

asked by Keith Stanley · answered by Marshall McCrea

What gating items remain before FGT FID and what benefits do the two projects offer; and provide more detail on getting Canadian light crude into the US.

Mackie said FGT Phase 9 has no contingency (compressors and pipe already being ordered), while the South Florida project awaits customer option elections over the next 30-60 days with a ~90%+ chance of proceeding to full FID. Adam reiterated excitement about DAPL/MLO2 reaching FID later this year, noting Enbridge's open season and that Canadian volumes were already expected to grow significantly through the decade even before the conflict.

“MLO 2 is the right project at the right time and the only project that's out there in the market that can provide the needed egress for that growth”

asked by Manav Gupta · answered by Marshall McCrea