EXELON Q1 FY26 earnings call EXC

Exelon revised its four-year capital plan to $41.7 billion (nearly $10 billion in 2026), pulling back $1.1 billion of PECO and BGE distribution project deferrals and reductions while adding $1.5 billion of incremental transmission investment to support project realignment and data center interconnection. Despite the rebalance, annualized rate base growth is maintained at 7.9%, with transmission rate base now growing 16% through 2029. Management framed this as a deliberate response to a shifted energy market with significant load growth and inadequate supply, emphasizing size, scale, diversification and discipline. It reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91 and long-term 5%-7% growth near the top end.

PECO withdrew its recently filed electric and gas rate cases, a timing-based decision grounded in customer affordability and stakeholder feedback, without changing its long-term infrastructure commitment. The Pennsylvania Governor's letter emphasized affordability and set out three principles for future cases: pursuing the most cost-effective forms of capital, transparency in ratemaking, and 'justifiable returns.' Management said it had no concern with those principles and will build an evidentiary record within Pennsylvania's nine-month process. A leadership transition occurred at PECO, with Michael Innocenzo (COO, prior PECO CEO 2018-2024) stepping in as Interim President and CEO while Dave Vohos moved to an advisory role.

Exelon is leaning into transmission where reliability and resiliency needs are accelerating. In February it submitted competitive bids for two Illinois transmission opportunities in the MISO tranche 2.1 window, representing approximately $1.9 billion of total transmission capital pursued jointly with Invenergy, with two additional bids expected later in the month across PJM and other ISOs. The $12-17 billion upside opportunity range outside the planning period was maintained and excludes the MISO bids and any solar/storage opportunities. Management noted it does not discuss generation or transmission opportunities until agreements are signed.

Management repeatedly stressed that affordability cannot be solved without addressing the underlying generation shortage. Mid-Atlantic residential supply costs have risen up to 80% or more over five years, and PJM has warned of 2028 reliability risk since 2024 without meaningful new supply progress. Over the last two years customers paid $32 billion for PJM capacity while supply declined 1.2 gigawatts. Charles River Associates estimated utility-supported generation could have saved PJM customers $9.6-$20 billion in the 2028/2029 delivery year while cutting outage risk ~85%. Exelon supports utility-owned generation (e.g. Maryland HB-1561, HB-1272/SB-897 in PA) alongside transmission and PJM reforms. Colette Honorable noted PJM reopened the queue with 811 projects (20 GW) applied, though only 19% historically reach operation and 54 GW cleared remains delayed by siting, permitting and supply chain.

Exelon is targeting no more than 2% adjusted O&M growth through 2029 after nearly flat expense growth from 2024 to 2026, and identified another $350 million of savings in 2027 tied to work it will no longer pursue. Levers include accelerating AI and technology transformation, prioritizing high-impact IT projects, focusing community investments, reducing outside contractors, a managed hiring process and a targeted voluntary separation program later this year. Management characterized the savings as largely sustainable and system-wide rather than sacrificing reliability or safety, and delivered approximately $1 billion in customer savings over the past year.

Exelon completed approximately 43% ($2.3 billion) of planned long-term debt financing for the year, executing all expected corporate and Pepco Holdings debt transactions and materially derisking the plan. The revised $41.7 billion plan through 2029 will be funded with ~$21.8 billion internally generated cash flow, $13.1 billion utility debt, $3.4 billion holding company debt and $3.4 billion equity — the equity being ~40% of the incremental plan and less than 2% of annual market cap. Roughly 37% of equity needs are progressed, with all $850 million of 2026 needs and over $400 million of 2027 priced via forward ATM contracts. Credit metrics are targeted at ~14% at Moody's and S&P.

Pepco Maryland is pursuing a traditional base rate case requesting a $119.9 million revenue requirement to recover critical infrastructure (e.g. the White Plant substation in Montgomery County, which removed over 16 miles of overhead lines) and higher financing costs; evidentiary hearings were held last week with a final order expected in August. In Delaware, Delmarva Power's electric base rate case is on schedule with intervener testimony due end of October and interim rates expected to take effect in July. Separately, Maryland's Utility Relief Act passed the legislature awaiting Governor Moore's signature, though management noted it does not address the supply/demand imbalance.