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    EXC
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    EXELON CORP EXC

    Nov 4, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Exelon Q3 FY25 — Strong Operational Performance and Reaffirmed Guidance

    Exelon delivered strong Q3 FY25 results, driven by operational excellence and favorable weather, reaffirming its full-year earnings guidance. The company continues to advance regulatory initiatives and strategic investments in grid modernization, particularly to address growing large load demand, while actively advocating for policies that ensure reliable and affordable power supply. Management remains focused on disciplined execution and financial flexibility to support long-term growth.

    Highlights

    5

    • Reported adjusted operating earnings of $0.86 per share in Q3 FY25, exceeding expectations due to warmer weather and mild storm season.

    • Reaffirmed operating earnings guidance for FY25 of $2.64 to $2.74 per share, with an expectation to deliver at the midpoint or better.

    • Achieved top-tier reliability rankings, with 4 utility operating companies ranked 1, 2, 4, and 7 out of their peer set, improving from prior year.

    • Secured a Transmission Security Agreement (TSA) at PECO, ensuring protection for existing customers while prioritizing large loads.

    • PECO successfully issued $1 billion in debt, completing all planned long-term debt issuances for the year with strong investor demand.

    Concerns

    3

    • Maryland's merchant generator RFP for up to 3 GW of new energy supply received submissions that fell short of the target capacity.

    • Significant anticipated shortfall in power supply, with concerns that relying on markets alone puts too much risk on customers.

    • The CAMT guidance as currently written did not achieve the full intent, requiring further IRS clarification for a potential 50 bps credit metric increase.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Operating earnings
    $2.64 to $2.74 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Annualized operating earnings growth rate
    5% to 7%
    high materiality
    High
    Rate base growth
    7.4%
    high materiality
    High
    Allowed ROE
    9% to 10%
    medium materiality
    High
    Energy storage procurement plan
    3 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    New energy supply RFP (Maryland)
    Up to 3 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    14
    Adjusted operating earnings per share
    $0.86vs $0.71 in Q3 FY24
    Q3 FY25

    Reported earnings for the third quarter, stronger than anticipated.

    Adjusted operating earnings per share
    $0.71
    Q3 FY24

    Prior year's adjusted operating earnings per share for comparison.

    EPS increase from distribution and transmission rates
    $0.12YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Driver for higher Q3 FY25 earnings relative to the same period last year.

    EPS increase from storm deferral/favorable conditions
    $0.06YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Driver for higher Q3 FY25 earnings, related to PECO extraordinary storms and BGE storm conditions.

    Utility reliability ranking
    1, 2, 4, 7vs 1, 3, 5, 8 prior year
    Last year

    Final results of reliability benchmarking, showing improvement.

    Benefits from Pepco Maryland investments
    $262 millionfrom $38 million investments
    Over 20 years

    Independent firm finding on the benefits of key infrastructure investments.

    Debt issuance
    $1 billion
    September

    PECO successfully issued debt with strong investor demand and attractive pricing.

    Equity needs priced
    nearly half
    Through Q3 FY25

    Derisking financing plan by pricing future equity needs.

    Annualized equity needs priced
    $663 million95% of FY26 needs
    FY26

    Specific amount of 2026 equity needs already priced.

    Financial flexibility
    100 to 200 basis pointsover Moody's downgrade threshold of 12%
    Average

    Projected financial flexibility relative to credit rating thresholds.

    Credit metrics increase from CAMT
    50 basis points
    Average

    Potential increase in consolidated credit metrics if all tax repairs are favorably addressed in the corporate alternative minimum tax calculation.

    Net profit reinvested
    98%
    Last 5 years

    Percentage of net profit reinvested back into the system.

    Economic output per investment
    $1.6 million
    Per $1 million investment

    Economic impact of investments, boosting local economies.

    Cost growth
    below inflation
    Ongoing

    Goal to pull cost out of the business and keep cost growth below inflation.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Regulatory rate base growth7.4%
    Rto market structure reviewPJM Critical Issue Fast Path
    New gas generation builds upgrades3GW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas19GW

    Orderbook & backlog

    6
    Large load pipeline19 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Finalized cluster study approach and first transmission security agreement at PECO.

    Large load pipeline (waiting TSAs or active studies)27 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Either waiting signed Transmission Security Agreements (TSAs) or in active cluster studies.

    Large load pipeline (studied or waiting to be studied)47 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Total load that has been studied or is waiting to be studied in a cluster approach.

    Large load pipeline (studied, awaiting TSA signing)6 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Load that has completed cluster studies and is awaiting TSA signing to move to high probability.

    Large load pipeline (actively being studied)20 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Load across Mid-Atlantic and Illinois currently undergoing active cluster studies.

    Large load pipeline (ready for next cluster study)20 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    Load that is queued and ready to be included in the next cluster study.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    PECO customer (data center)Transmission Security Agreement (TSA)

    First TSA finalized at PECO, ensuring balance in prioritizing large loads while protecting existing customers. This customer will become PECO's largest customer on site by spring.

    Capital programs

    1
    Transmission investment planunderway

    Connecting new business is expected to be a driver of anticipated growth in transmission investment in the next 4-year plan. No single project greater than 3% of the 4-year plan. Additional $10 billion to $15 billion of transmission opportunities outside the current PJM open window.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Supply shortfall and market reliance

    Significant anticipated shortfall in supply

    Mitigation: Advocating for states to leverage all available options, including utility-owned generation, to bring control, certainty, and customer benefits to securing power.

    High energy costs for customersOngoing

    Customers frustrated with high energy costs

    Mitigation: Focus on affordability and reliability, O&M cost containment, customer assistance programs, and advancing rate designs.

    Regulatory outcomes for rate casesQ1 FY26 (Delmarva), End of year (ACE), August 2026 (Pepco MD), December 20 (ComEd reconciliation)

    Net revenue increase of $133 million requested for Pepco Maryland; final settlement conferences held for Delmarva Power gas distribution rate case; settlement discussions ongoing for Atlantic City Electric rate case.

    Mitigation: Working with commissions and stakeholders, robustly supporting spend for reconciliation, advocating for fair recovery for investments.

    Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) calculation

    Potential increase of approximately 50 basis points in consolidated credit metrics

    Mitigation: Continuing to advocate for language that incorporates all tax repairs for calculating the corporate alternative minimum tax.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Delmarva Power gas distribution rate case order

    Q1 FY26
    CurrentFinal settlement conferences held in October
    TargetOrder issued

    Why it matters

    This order will determine recovery for reliability investments and LNG plant upgrades, impacting future rate base and earnings.

    We anticipate an order in the first quarter of '26.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Thoughts on Maryland's RFP for new energy supply, the timing, and competing options from Constellation.

    Exelon commends Maryland for initiating the RFP but believes submissions fell short of the needed supply. The company is focused on affordability and reliability for customers and is willing to step up if the competitive market doesn't meet the need, moving forward aggressively with solutions.

    “Let's be clear, this is all about solving the problem and bringing energy costs under control for our customers. And that's what we're focused on, affordability and reliability each and every day.”

    asked by Shar Pourreza · answered by Calvin Butler

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Operational Excellence and Reliability

    Exelon's utility operating companies demonstrated industry-leading reliability, with four entities ranking 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 7th among peers, an improvement from the prior year's 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 8th rankings. This performance is attributed to strategic investments in grid infrastructure and efficient outage restoration, which significantly reduce costs for customers during major storm events. The company emphasizes continuous improvement to offer above-average performance at below-average rates.

    02

    Regulatory Progress and Rate Cases

    The company is making progress on several rate cases, including Delmarva Power's gas distribution rate case, with an order anticipated in Q1 FY26, and Atlantic City Electric's rate case, with settlement discussions ongoing and an order expected by year-end. Pepco Maryland filed an electric base rate case requesting a $133 million net revenue increase, supporting infrastructure investments and clean energy goals, with an order expected by August 2026. ComEd's first reconciliation under the new multiyear plan is on track for a final order by December 20.

    03

    Illinois Clean Energy Legislation

    Illinois passed the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (Senate Bill 25), which expands the annual budget for energy efficiency, broadens eligibility for distributed generation rebates, and creates an energy storage procurement plan targeting 3 GW by 2030. The act also mandates 4-year integrated resource plans and empowers the ICC to facilitate transmission projects, marking a significant step in Illinois' energy transition and creating investment opportunities for ComEd.

    04

    Addressing Supply Shortfalls and Large Load Growth

    Exelon is actively engaged in state and PJM initiatives to address a significant anticipated shortfall in power supply, advocating for solutions beyond market mechanisms, including utility-owned generation. The company's large load pipeline has grown to over 19 GW, with 27 GW either awaiting signed Transmission Security Agreements (TSAs) or in active cluster studies, and 47 GW studied or waiting to be studied. The innovative TSA approach, with the first signed at PECO, aims to balance prioritizing large loads with protecting existing customers.

    05

    Financing Strategy and Balance Sheet Strength

    Exelon continues to derisk its financing plan, having completed all planned long-term debt issuances for the year with PECO's $1 billion debt issuance. The company has priced nearly half of its equity needs through 2028, including all 2025 and 95% ($663 million) of 2026 annualized equity needs, through forward agreements under the ATM. Exelon projects 100-200 basis points of financial flexibility over Moody's 12% downgrade threshold, approaching 14% by the end of the guidance period, with potential for an additional 50 bps from favorable CAMT treatment.

    06

    Long-Term Investment and Economic Impact

    Exelon emphasizes its commitment to reinvesting in the grid, with 98% of net profit earned at its utilities over the last five years being reinvested. These investments not only enhance service reliability but also stimulate local economies, with every $1 million creating 8 jobs or $1.6 million in economic output. The company advocates for fair recovery mechanisms and policies that support high service levels, equitable grid usage, and customer-first approaches, including cost containment and leveraging technology to keep cost growth below inflation.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.