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    FIX
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    COMFORT SYSTEMS USA Q1 FY26 earnings call FIX

    Apr 24, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Comfort Systems USA Q1 FY26 — Record $12.5B backlog and all-time-high margins on data-center demand

    A supply-constrained super-cycle quarter: data-center-led demand keeps backlog compounding faster than revenue while disciplined work selection lifts margins to record levels. Management frames labor — not demand — as the only ceiling, and is committing its own capital to owned modular capacity and an electrical bolt-on to widen it, while guiding to still-strong but moderating full-year same-store growth.

    Highlights

    5
    • Same-store revenue grew 51% (+$943M); total revenue $2.9B, up 56% YoY

    • Diluted EPS of $10.51, more than double Q1 2025's $4.75; net income $370M vs $169M

    • Record backlog of $12.5B, a same-store YoY increase of $5.3B and sequential +$500M

    • Gross margin hit an all-time high of 26.3% (25.2% ex a $43M closeout benefit) vs 22.0% a year ago

    • Quarterly dividend raised $0.10 to $0.80/share; operating margin expanded to 17.0% from 11.4%

    Concerns

    5
    • Full-year same-store growth guided to mid-to-high 20% range vs 51% in Q1, implying deceleration against tougher H2 comps

    • $43M one-time late-stage change-order/closeout benefit (~$1/share) flattered gross margin; ex-benefit margin ~25.2%

    • Skilled labor is the explicit binding constraint on converting backlog to revenue

    • Materials and equipment as a percent of revenue rose ~200 bps YoY

    • CapEx jumped to $147M (5.1% of revenue) from $22M (1.2%) as the company buys rather than leases buildings

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 same-store revenue growth
    mid- to high 20% range
    high materiality
    High
    Gross profit margin
    continue in the strong ranges averaged over the past several quarters
    high materiality
    Medium
    Full-year effective tax rate
    around 23%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 capital expenditures
    in the range of 5% of revenue
    medium materiality
    High
    Modular manufacturing capacity
    4 million square feet by the end of 2026
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Mechanical
    Benefited from strong technology-sector demand and the $43M of favorable late-stage project developments (change orders and descopes); margin ex-benefit is meaningfully lower but still strong.
    Gross margin: 26.9%Prior-year gross margin: 21.7%$43M late-stage change-order/closeout benefit concentrated hereModular revenue (17% of total) included in this segment
    +47% YoY (portion of $2.9B total)+47%Gross margin 26.9% (vs 21.7% in Q1 2025)
    Electrical
    Growth driven largely by headcount additions plus price and productivity; pending acquisition of a Western electrical contractor to add scale.
    Gross margin: 24.9%Prior-year gross margin: 23.0%Organic growth: ~80%Margin up almost 2 full percentage points YoY
    +88% YoY (portion of $2.9B total)+88% reported (~80% organic)Gross margin 24.9% (vs 23.0% in Q1 2025)

    Operational metrics

    6
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $524M+116% YoY (vs $243M)
    Q1 FY26

    EBITDA more than doubled on revenue growth and margin expansion.

    Operating margin
    17.0%vs 11.4% in Q1 2025
    Q1 FY26

    Operating income rose 132% YoY; margin expanded sharply on volume leverage.

    SG&A expense
    $269Mvs $195M in Q1 2025
    Q1 FY26

    SG&A dollars rose but leverage improved sharply on the revenue jump.

    Effective tax rate
    23.2%vs 18.6% in Q1 2025
    Q1 FY26 (quarter-to-date)

    GAAP basis; full-year rate guided around 23%.

    Dividend per share
    $0.80 per quarter+$0.10 (~+14%) increase
    Q1 FY26

    Another consecutive increase to the quarterly dividend.

    Materials and equipment as percent of revenue
    up ~200 bpsYoY increase
    Q1 FY26

    Rising materials/equipment intensity accompanies the shift toward larger, more equipment-heavy projects.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Total backlog$12.5B$B
    Book to bill ratio~1.2xratio
    End market pipelineIndustrial 75%, Advanced technology (data center) 56%, Institutional 17%, Commercial 8%% of revenue
    Modular prefab capacity17% of total revenue% of revenue
    Acquisition contribution~$250M annualized revenue$M
    Self perform activity mixConstruction 90% / Service 10%% of revenue
    Same store organic revenue growth+51% (+$943M)%
    Late stage project closeout benefit$43M (~$1 per share)$M
    Segment operating margin trajectoryMechanical gross margin 26.9%; Electrical gross margin 24.9%%
    Craft skilled labor headcount capacity23,000+ employeesemployees

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Total backlog$12.5B2026-03-31 (end of Q1 FY26)

    Same-store sequential +$500M+; same-store YoY +$5.3B; record level

    Broad-based, led by technology/data-center bookings; advanced technology remains the largest driver of pipeline and backlog. Entering Q2 2026, total backlog was $5B higher than one year earlier.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Undisclosed highly skilled electrical contractor (Western U.S.)acquisition

    Company is strong in its Western market where Comfort Systems already has a mechanical presence; purchase price and financing not disclosed.

    Capital programs

    1
    Modular manufacturing capacity expansion (incl. Texas assembly building)underway
    Period spend: $147M total Q1 CapEx (5.1% of revenue), including a large Texas modular assembly building purchase; similar investment planned for the rest of the year
    Funding: Self-funded / own capital — shifting from leasing to owning buildings given heavy automation investment
    Start: Ongoing; Texas building purchased in Q1 2026

    Benefit: 4M sq ft modular capacity by end-2026 plus automation (cranes, robots, turn tables, paint booths); additional capacity under evaluation

    Management buys buildings only with high confidence in customers, often securing multiyear volume commitments as a condition of committing capacity; full-year CapEx guided to ~5% of revenue.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Growth deceleration against tougher second-half comparablesH2 2026 and full year 2026

    Full-year same-store growth guided to mid-to-high 20% range vs +51% in Q1; requires above-20% average over the next 3 quarters against large H2 2025 revenue quarters

    Mitigation: Record backlog and full pipelines; disciplined selection of deliverable, well-priced work

    Skilled-labor supply as the binding constraint on backlog conversionOngoing

    Headcount up 3,000-4,000 YoY to 23,000+; framed as a supply (not demand) limit on revenue conversion

    Mitigation: Full-court-press recruiting, competitive pay, training, and use of travelers/temporary workers

    Non-repeatable one-time closeout benefit inflating reported marginQ1 2026 one-time

    $43M favorable late-stage/change-order benefit (~$1/share); gross margin ex-benefit ~25.2% vs reported 26.3%

    Mitigation: Disclosed and quantified in MD&A so investors can back it out; core margins characterized as sustainable

    Data-center policy/power-access risk (state bans, power limits)Long-term monitoring

    Unquantified; management says no proposals currently impact their geographies

    Mitigation: Concentration in states encouraging build-out; long track record working around local pushback

    Rising input intensityOngoing

    Materials and equipment as a percent of revenue up ~200 bps YoY

    Mitigation: Strong pricing and margin realization; disciplined counterparty and work selection

    Elevated capital commitment to owned facilities / cycle-durability exposure2026

    CapEx $147M (5.1% of revenue) vs $22M (1.2%) a year ago; guided to ~5% of revenue for the year

    Mitigation: Multiyear volume commitments secured from customers as a condition of committing capacity

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Mid-to-high 20% organic growth implies a fair amount of moderation despite Q1 momentum and backlog outpacing revenue — how did you arrive at it?

    Guidance is built organically from field projections and committed work at levels management believes are extremely achievable; getting to the high 20s still requires above-20% average growth over the next 3 quarters against big H2 comps, and revenue is never the goal — profit is.

    revenue is never our goal. Our goal is profit.

    asked by Samuel Kusswurm (William Blair) · answered by William George

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Financial Quarter

    Q1 2026 revenue was $2.9B, up 56% YoY, with same-store revenue up 51% (+$943M). Gross profit reached $754M (+$351M) at a record 26.3% margin. Operating income rose 132% to $486M, lifting operating margin to 17.0% from 11.4% on both gross-margin expansion and SG&A leverage (SG&A fell to 9.4% of revenue from 10.6%). Net income was $370M, or $10.51 per share, more than double the prior-year $4.75. EBITDA grew 116% to $524M, taking trailing-12-month EBITDA to $1.74B.

    02

    Backlog and Data-Center Demand

    Backlog hit a record $12.5B, a same-store sequential increase of just over $500M and a same-store YoY increase of $5.3B; entering Q2, total backlog was $5B higher than a year earlier. Q1 bookings were especially strong in technology. Advanced technology — dominated by data centers — rose to 56% of revenue and remains the largest driver of pipeline and backlog. Management said data-center demand still exceeds supply, with Texas the biggest epicenter and strong activity across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, Virginia and the Rocky Mountain states.

    03

    Margin Strength and a One-Time Closeout Benefit

    Gross margin benefited from $43M of favorable developments on late-stage projects, including change orders and descopes, concentrated in Mechanical. Backing this out puts gross margin near 25.2% — still historically high but closer to a normal Q1. Mechanical gross margin improved to 26.9% (from 21.7%) and Electrical to 24.9% (from 23%). Management characterized the $43M as non-repeatable, disclosed it deliberately, and attributed core margin durability to disciplined work selection, repeatable scopes and field-team execution.

    04

    Labor as the Binding Constraint

    Management repeatedly framed growth as supply-constrained, not demand-constrained — a paradigm shift versus the prior 30 years. Headcount is 3,000-4,000 higher than Q1 2025 (23,000+ total employees), and materials/equipment as a percent of revenue is up ~200 bps. Electrical grew ~80% organically, driven partly by aggressive recruiting, training and pay. The field takes only the work it can confidently deliver, which management says is evidenced in the margins.

    05

    Modular Capacity and Capital Investment

    CapEx was $147M (5.1% of revenue) versus $22M a year ago, including a large modular assembly building purchase in Texas plus automation (cranes, robots, turn tables, paint booths). The company is shifting from leasing to owning buildings because heavy automation investment makes ownership sensible. It is on track for 4M sq ft of modular capacity by end-2026 and is evaluating more, often securing multiyear volume commitments from customers as a condition of committing capacity.

    06

    Electrical Acquisition

    In March the company signed a definitive agreement, subject mainly to regulatory approval, to acquire a highly skilled electrical contractor in the West where it already has a mechanical presence. The deal is expected to close in early May and to initially contribute roughly $250M of annualized revenue at EBITDA margins of 8%-10%.

    07

    Service, Aftermarket and Long-Term Wallet Share

    Service revenue grew 8% and, with faster construction growth, is now 10% of total revenue; service profitability was strong and remains a reliable source of profit and cash. Management sees a large future maintenance/service opportunity on the growing installed base of data centers, with modular units designed for maintainability and retrofit (e.g., adding electrical capacity if future chips need less cooling).

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.