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    GEV
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    GE Vernova Q1 FY25 earnings call GEV

    Apr 23, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    GE Vernova Q1 FY25 — Strong Start with Reaffirmed Guidance Despite Tariff Headwinds

    GE Vernova delivered a strong Q1 FY25, driven by robust demand in Power and Electrification, significant margin expansion, and strong free cash flow generation. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite anticipating a $300 million-$400 million headwind from tariffs and inflation, which it plans to mitigate through pricing actions, G&A cost transformation, and supply chain adjustments. While Wind markets remain challenging, the company is focused on operational improvements and executing its existing backlog.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total orders increased 8% year-over-year to $10.2 billion, representing approximately 1.3x revenue.

    • Adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 70% to $460 million, with a 170 basis point margin expansion.

    • Generated $1 billion in free cash flow, a significant $1.6 billion improvement year-over-year.

    • Total backlog expanded to $123 billion, with equipment backlog up $2.4 billion and services backlog up $2 billion sequentially.

    • Returned $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders in Q1, including $1.2 billion in share repurchases.

    Concerns

    3
    • Anticipated $300 million to $400 million cost increase in FY25 due to tariffs and resulting inflation.

    • Wind orders decreased 43% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower onshore wind equipment due to U.S. policy uncertainty and permitting delays.

    • Offshore wind EBITDA losses included a onetime termination charge of approximately $70 million for a supply agreement.

    Guidance & targets

    23
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Revenue
    $36B-$37B
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Revenue Growth
    mid-single-digit year-over-year increase
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    high single digits
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Free Cash Flow
    $2B-$2.5B
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Power Organic Revenue Growth
    mid-single-digit
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Power EBITDA Margin
    13%-14%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Wind Revenue
    down mid-single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Wind EBITDA Losses
    $200M-$400M
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Electrification Organic Revenue Growth
    mid-to-high teens
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Electrification EBITDA Margin
    11%-13%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Power Organic Revenue Growth
    mid-single-digit
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Power EBITDA Margin
    approximately 14%-16%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Wind Revenue Growth
    high single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Wind EBITDA Losses
    relatively consistent with 1Q 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Electrification Revenue Growth
    in line with full year guidance
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Electrification EBITDA Margin
    modest expansion sequentially
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2025 Free Cash Flow
    positive, lower year-over-year
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Free Cash Flow Quarters
    positive in all 4 quarters
    medium materiality
    High
    Gas Turbine Equipment Shipments
    over 10 GW
    medium materiality
    High
    Gas Turbine Contracts and Reservation Agreements
    over 60 GW
    high materiality
    High
    Gas Power Annualized Deliveries
    20 GW
    high materiality
    High
    Vineyard Wind Project Completion
    materially complete
    medium materiality
    High
    Dogger Bank Project Completion
    mostly complete
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Power
    Led by equipment at Gas Power and services strength. Equipment revenue growth driven by increased HA deliveries. Services increased mainly from higher volume and price. Margin expansion driven by productivity, price, and volume, offsetting inflation and R&D/capacity investments.
    Orders: +28%Gas Power equipment orders: +30%Heavy-duty gas turbines booked: 29 unitsHA units booked: 8 unitsPower Services orders: +18%EBITDA margin expansion: 70 bps
    increased 16%+16%11.5%
    Wind
    Orders decreased due to lower onshore wind equipment from U.S. policy uncertainty and permitting delays. Revenue growth on higher onshore equipment deliveries and price, partially offset by lower offshore revenue. EBITDA losses improved due to more profitable onshore equipment volume. Services costs increased due to investments in onshore fleet performance.
    Orders: -43%Onshore wind profitable quarters: 5th straightOffshore units commissioned: 17 units (Dogger Bank and Vineyard Wind)EBITDA losses included onetime termination of supply agreement: ~$70MEBITDA margin expansion: 190 bps
    increased 15%+15%EBITDA losses improved 7%
    Electrification
    Orders decreased low single digits YoY due to a tough comparison with a large HVDC order in 1Q24, but demand remained robust for switchgear and transformers in North America and Asia. Revenue growth driven by higher volume and price, particularly at Grid Solutions. Margin expansion driven by more profitable volume, increased productivity, and favorable pricing.
    Orders: ~$3.4BOrders vs revenue: ~1.8xEBITDA margin expansion: 680 bpsEquipment backlog: ~$22BEquipment backlog increase YoY: >$7B
    increased 18%+18%double-digit EBITDA margins

    Operational metrics

    20
    Tariff and inflation cost increase
    $300M-$400M
    FY25

    Expected cost increase in 2025, net of mitigating actions.

    G&A cost reduction target
    $600M
    by 2028

    Updated target for transforming back-office structure, accelerated due to tariff pressures.

    R&D and CapEx investment
    $400M
    Q1 FY25

    Combined R&D and CapEx spend in the quarter.

    Working capital benefit
    $1B
    Q1 FY25

    Cash benefit from working capital in the quarter.

    Power past dues balance decrease
    30%
    Q1 FY25

    Result of implementing stronger daily management and new standard work for timely invoice payments.

    Power days sales outstanding reduction
    3 days
    Q1 FY25

    Result of improved linearity and cash management.

    Power FCF impact from improved linearity
    $150M
    Q1 FY25

    Additional free cash flow generated from improved linearity actions.

    Capital returned to shareholders
    $1.3B
    Q1 FY25

    Total capital returned in Q1, including share repurchases and inaugural dividend. YTD total includes April repurchases.

    Shares repurchased
    5M
    Q1 FY25

    Approximately 5 million shares repurchased at an average price of $299.

    Cash balance
    $8.1B
    Q1 FY25

    Healthy cash balance at the end of Q1 2025.

    Fitch rating outlook
    positive from stable
    March 2025

    Fitch revised its GE Vernova ratings outlook to positive from stable.

    Fitch credit rating
    BBB
    March 2025

    Fitch affirmed investment-grade credit rating of BBB.

    Onshore wind investment for fleet performance
    $100M+YoY increase
    FY25

    Investment to improve performance of installed base, expected to yield substantial improvement in fleet availability and services profitability in 2026.

    CEO Kaizen Week safety improvements
    500+
    Q1 FY25

    Identified during CEO Kaizen Week across 13 countries.

    Incremental revenues from Kaizens
    $150M
    Q1 FY25

    Identified enhancements to capacity or delivery times expected to create incremental revenues.

    Arbitration refund (nonrecurring)
    $300M
    Q2 2024

    Nonrecurring refund received in Q2 2024, impacting YoY FCF comparison for Q2 2025.

    Gas Power annualized deliveries target
    20 GW
    H2 2026

    Fulfillment strategy target for annualized deliveries.

    Gas Power pricing trend
    price up
    H1 2025 vs H2 2024, H2 2025 vs H1 2025

    Continuous price increases, including further actions in April due to tariff dynamics.

    Electrification pricing trend
    gaining, slower ratevs 2024
    Q1 FY25

    Pricing continues to improve but at a moderated pace compared to the previous year.

    Electrification equipment backlog growth trajectory
    similar trajectoryvs FY23 and FY24
    FY25

    Expected to have a similar trajectory of backlog growth in 2025 relative to 2023 and 2024.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Book to bill ratio1.3xratio
    Orders bookings growth8%%
    Gigawatts under contract50 GWGW
    Backlog by segment end market$123BUSD
    Data center exposure pipeline1/3%

    Orderbook & backlog

    7
    Total backlog$123BQ1 FY25

    increased sequentially

    Equipment backlog$2.4BQ1 FY25

    sequential increase

    Services backlog$2BQ1 FY25

    sequential increase

    Gas turbine backlog29 GWQ1 FY25

    increased

    Gas turbine slot reservation agreements21 GWQ1 FY25

    Expected to convert to orders; ~20% of contracts paid for today; 1/3 aligned with data center build-out

    Total Gas turbines under contract or slot reservation50 GWQ1 FY25

    Comprises 29 GW backlog and 21 GW slot reservation agreements; 60% in U.S.

    Electrification equipment backlog$22BQ1 FY25

    up >$7B YoY

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    China XDSale of partial ownership stake

    Sold an incremental 2% stake in China XD Grid business. Company continues to own just over 10%.

    WoodwardAcquisition of gas turbine parts business

    Completed acquisition of Woodward's gas turbine parts business to further vertically integrate the gas power supply chain.

    UndisclosedTermination of offshore wind supply agreement

    Agreed to a termination of the last remaining offshore wind supply agreement associated with the 18-megawatt product no longer being developed.

    Capital programs

    2
    U.S. Manufacturing Investmentannounced$600M
    Start: January 2025 (announced)

    Benefit: 1,500 new jobs

    Part of a $9 billion global commitment to R&D and CapEx cumulatively through 2028.

    Onshore Wind Fleet Performance Improvementunderway
    Period spend: $100M+
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: improved fleet availability and services profitability

    Investing over $100 million more year-over-year in 2025 to improve the performance of the installed base.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Tariffs and resulting inflationFY25

    $300M-$400M cost increase in FY25

    Mitigation: Pricing actions, use of existing contractual provisions, acceleration of G&A cost structure transformation, supply chain reallocation (2/3 of China spend dual-qualified).

    Wind market softnessQ1 FY25 (ongoing)

    Wind orders decreased 43% YoY

    Mitigation: Focused on controlling what can be controlled, investing over $100M more in FY25 to improve onshore fleet performance, executing existing offshore backlog.

    Offshore wind supply agreement termination chargeQ1 FY25

    Approximately $70M onetime charge

    Mitigation: Focus on executing remaining contractual commitments for Dogger Bank and Vineyard Wind projects.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Tariff and inflation impact

    Next quarter
    Current$300M-$400M cost increase in FY25
    TargetProgress on mitigation actions, potential revision to impact

    Why it matters

    The anticipated cost increase directly impacts profitability and the company's ability to meet its full-year guidance, making mitigation progress critical.

    We do expect our costs to go up $300 million to $400 million in '25. We are moving at pace to mitigate these pressures with pricing actions, including use of existing contractual provisions and the acceleration of our G&A cost structure transformation.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Can you elaborate on the $300M-$400M tariff impact, distinguishing between gross impact and mitigation, and your strategy for offsetting it by 2026?

    Management stated the $300M-$400M is net of mitigating actions. The biggest tariff impact is from China, affecting about 1/4 of total direct spend. Mitigation includes contractual provisions (inflationary clauses, change-in-law clauses), supply chain reallocation (2/3 of China spend is dual-qualified), and accelerating G&A cost transformation (target $600M reduction by 2028). Offshore wind is most affected due to its backlog and no investment in supply chain reallocation for that product.

    We don't put a check box and say $300 million to $400 million, count on that to be the number today and going forward. We will continue to work to make this company even better from a cost perspective.

    asked by Nicole DeBlase · answered by Kenneth Parks

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Market Dynamics and Electrification Super Cycle

    The world is experiencing an accelerated electrification era driven by manufacturing growth, industrial electrification, EVs, and emerging data center needs. This trend is creating an unprecedented🌐 demand for investment in reliable baseload power, grid infrastructure, and decarbonization solutions globally. This demand fuels growth for new equipment and high-margin services, with services representing over 60% of the company's backlog and providing significant revenue and cash flow visibility.

    02

    Tariff and Inflation Headwinds & Mitigation

    GE Vernova anticipates $300 million to $400 million in cost increases in 2025 due to tariffs and resulting inflation. The company is implementing mitigation strategies including pricing actions, leveraging existing contractual provisions, accelerating G&A cost structure transformation, and reallocating supply chains. Approximately two-thirds of the China-based spend, which is the biggest tariff impact🌐 area, is already dual-qualified, allowing for supply chain movement. Offshore wind is noted as being more significantly impacted due to its two-year backlog and the company's decision not to invest in reallocating its supply chain for that product.

    03

    Gas Power Momentum and Backlog Strength

    Gas Power saw equipment orders grow over 30% in Q1, booking 7 gigawatts of gas turbines and securing 7 gigawatts of new slot reservation agreements. The total gas turbine backlog increased to 29 gigawatts, with an additional 21 gigawatts in slot reservation agreements. The company expects to ship over 10 gigawatts in the remainder of 2025 and add contracts for more than twice that amount, aiming to end the year with over 60 gigawatts under contract or reservation. '26 and '27 are largely sold out, '28 is materially sold out, and discussions for '29 and '30 deliveries are accelerating, indicating a 'higher for longer' gas market.

    04

    Electrification Systems Growth and Capacity

    Electrification Systems continued to demonstrate strong demand, with $2 billion in sequential equipment backlog growth, up 10% versus year-end levels, driven by transformers and switchgear. Orders were approximately 1.8 times revenue, and the segment achieved 680 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. The company is focused on increasing capacity through adding shifts and workers to meet growing demand, expecting continued revenue growth throughout 2025 and into 2026.

    05

    Wind Segment Performance and Strategic Focus

    Onshore Wind achieved its fifth consecutive profitable quarter. The company is investing over $100 million more in 2025 to improve installed fleet performance, expecting substantial improvements in availability and services profitability in 2026. Offshore Wind is progressing with existing backlog, expecting material completion of Vineyard Wind in 2025 and Dogger Bank in 2026. A one-time📎 charge of approximately $70 million was incurred for the termination of an 18-megawatt product supply agreement, as the company is no longer developing that product.

    06

    Financial Strength and Capital Allocation

    GE Vernova ended Q1 with a healthy cash balance of $8.1 billion and generated $1 billion in free cash flow, a $1.6 billion year-over-year improvement, driven by strong down payments and working capital management. The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in Q1, including $1.2 billion in share repurchases, and continued with an additional $300 million in April. Fitch revised its ratings outlook to positive from stable, affirming the BBB investment-grade credit rating, reflecting confidence in the company's financial trajectory.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.