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    GEV
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    GE Vernova Inc. GEV

    Jan 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    GE Vernova Q4 FY25 — Record Orders and Backlog Growth Drive Strong Outlook

    GE Vernova delivered a strong Q4 FY25, marked by record orders and significant backlog growth in Power and Electrification, driven by robust demand for gas equipment and grid solutions. The company successfully closed the Prolec GE acquisition, which is expected to further boost Electrification's revenue and market position. While facing headwinds from offshore wind project delays, management remains focused on operational execution and lean initiatives to drive future profitable growth and increased shareholder returns.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total backlog increased by over 25% or $31 billion to $150 billion in FY25.

    • Electrification achieved its largest order quarter in history and Wind had its largest order quarter of FY25.

    • Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 210 basis points year-over-year in FY25.

    • Generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow in FY25, more than double prior year.

    • Prolec GE acquisition received rapid approval and closed on February 2, 2026.

    Concerns

    3
    • U.S. government's halting of all offshore wind activity led to an incremental accrual for costs associated with the delay on the Vineyard Wind project in Q4 FY25.

    • Wind EBITDA losses were $225 million in Q4 FY25, below Q4 FY24 levels, due to higher offshore contract losses and lower onshore equipment volume.

    • Wind losses for FY25 came in at approximately $600 million, higher than the $400 million expectation due to the U.S. government stop work order.

    Guidance & targets

    30
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 revenue
    $44 billion to $45 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margins
    11% to 13%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 free cash flow
    $5 billion and $5.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Power organic revenue growth
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Power EBITDA margins
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Electrification revenue
    $13.5 billion and $14 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Electrification EBITDA margins
    17% to 19%
    medium materiality
    High
    Wind organic revenue
    down low double digits
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Wind EBITDA losses
    approximately $400 million
    high materiality
    Medium
    Corporate costs
    $450 million and $500 million
    low materiality
    Medium
    Total revenue
    at least $56 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA margins
    20%
    high materiality
    High
    Cumulative GE Vernova free cash flow generation
    at least $24 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Cumulative CapEx and R&D investments
    approximately $11 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Gas Power equipment backlog
    approximately 100 gigawatts under contract
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend
    doubling
    medium materiality
    High
    Stock buyback authorization
    $10 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Equipment margin dollars in backlog
    at least as much as in '25
    high materiality
    High
    Total equipment margin in backlog
    at least $22 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Power Q1 2026 revenue growth
    high single-digit growth
    low materiality
    Medium
    Power Q1 2026 EBITDA margin
    approximately 14% to 15%
    low materiality
    Medium
    Wind Q1 2026 revenue decline
    high teens rate year-over-year
    low materiality
    Medium
    Wind Q1 2026 EBITDA losses
    between $300 million and $400 million
    low materiality
    Medium
    Electrification Q1 2026 revenue
    similar to the fourth quarter of 2025
    low materiality
    Medium
    Electrification Q1 2026 EBITDA margin
    16% to 17%
    low materiality
    Medium
    GEV adjusted EBITDA
    more second half weighted than 2025
    low materiality
    Medium
    Gas Power revenue
    higher second half
    low materiality
    Medium
    Gas services seasonality
    highest outage volume in the fourth quarter
    low materiality
    Medium
    Electrification EBITDA
    increase sequentially through the year
    low materiality
    Medium
    Wind onshore turbine shipments
    higher second half
    low materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Power
    Power delivered a strong year led by Gas Power, with robust demand for gas equipment and services. EBITDA margins expanded due to higher price and productivity. Q4 saw significant equipment orders, including 41 heavy-duty gas turbines. Services revenue increased due to higher gas transactional services and nuclear. Growth was partially offset by fewer heavy-duty gas turbine shipments due to improved linearity.
    Orders FY25: >50% growthOrders 4Q25: 77% growthEBITDA Margin 4Q25: 16.9% (up 160 bps)Gas Power equipment backlog and slot reservations 4Q25: 83 GW (up from 62 GW sequentially)Gas Power backlog 4Q25: 40 GW (up from 33 GW sequentially)Gas Power SRAs 4Q25: 43 GW (up from 29 GW sequentially)Power services backlog 4Q25: $70B (up $5B sequentially, $9B YoY)Heavy-duty gas turbines booked 4Q25: 41 units (up >70% YoY)HA units booked 4Q25: 15 unitsAeroderivative units booked 4Q25: 18 units (8 more than 4Q24)Power services orders 4Q25: 15% increase
    $38B (total GEV)10%14.7%
    Wind
    Wind delivered similar EBITDA losses in FY25 despite tariffs, driven by improved pricing and higher turbine deliveries at onshore, offset by offshore. Q4 revenue decreased due to lower onshore equipment deliveries. EBITDA losses were higher in Q4 due to increased offshore contract losses, including the impact of the U.S. stop work order on offshore projects, and lower onshore equipment volume.
    Orders 4Q25: 53% increase YoYEBITDA losses FY25: ~$600MOffshore contract losses: higher in 4Q25Onshore equipment volume: lower in 4Q25Onshore services: improved in 4Q25Vineyard Wind project: 10 turbines needing blades, 1 left to install at time of stop work order
    -25%($225M) (EBITDA loss 4Q25)
    Electrification
    Electrification saw strong demand and price, resulting in significant orders and revenue growth. Equipment orders continued to outpace revenue, increasing the equipment backlog. EBITDA margins expanded due to volume, favorable price, and productivity. Q4 orders were particularly strong for grid equipment, including synchronous condensers, substations, and switchgear, supporting data center growth.
    Orders FY25: 21% growthOrders 4Q25: ~2.5x revenue, 50% increase YoY (~$7.4B)EBITDA Margin 4Q25: 17.1% (up 320 bps)Equipment backlog 4Q25: $31B (up >$10B compared to 4Q24)Data center orders FY25: >$2B (more than triple 2024 total)Equipment orders growth Middle East 4Q25: >$1BEquipment orders growth North America 4Q25: doubled YoY
    $38B (total GEV)26%14.9%

    Operational metrics

    27
    Adjusted EBITDA margin
    210YoY expansion
    FY25

    Expanded year-over-year.

    Working capital cash benefit
    $2.3
    4Q25

    Driven by down payments on higher orders and slot reservations at Power, and higher orders at Electrification.

    Cash balance
    nearly $9up ~$1B compared to 3Q25
    end 4Q25

    Healthy cash balance.

    Cash returned to shareholders
    $1.1
    4Q25

    Through share repurchases and dividends.

    Debt issuance
    roughly $2.6
    early Feb 2026

    To complete the acquisition of Prolec GE.

    Gross debt to adjusted EBITDA
    <1x
    after Prolec GE debt issuance

    Expected to remain below 1x.

    Cash returned to shareholders
    $3.6
    FY25

    Total for the year.

    Days sales outstanding (DSO)
    2reduced vs FY24
    FY25

    Reduced compared to year-end 2024.

    Equipment backlog margin dollars added
    $8more than prior 2 years combined
    FY25

    Added to equipment backlog.

    Equipment backlog margin expansion
    6
    FY25

    Company-wide.

    Equipment backlog margin expansion
    11
    FY25

    Mainly driven by Gas Power business.

    Wind revenue negative impact (Vineyard Wind)
    approximately $250
    FY26

    Potential negative impact if unable to complete installation of remaining 11 turbines by end of March.

    Wind tariff impact
    approximately $70
    Q1 FY26

    Impact of tariffs that started in Q2 of last year.

    Prolec GE revenue contribution
    approximately $3
    FY26

    From Prolec GE acquisition.

    Prolec GE incremental revenue
    approximately $4
    by 2028

    On top of high teens organic growth.

    Prolec GE incremental CapEx
    nearly $1
    FY25-FY28

    To support increased transformer production.

    Transformer product line labor hours
    39up
    4Q25

    In transformer product line.

    Transformer product line output
    50up YoY
    4Q25

    As productivity drives at sites.

    Critical customer-facing events
    50down vs FY24
    FY25

    Improved execution in onshore wind.

    R&D and CapEx investments
    >$2
    FY25

    Invested in FY25.

    Electrification revenue
    $5
    FY22

    Revenue in FY22.

    Gas turbine production capacity
    approximately 20
    mid-year '26

    Annual production capacity increase.

    New machines installed
    >200
    FY25

    Installed in factories for capacity ramp.

    New production workers added
    nearly 1,000
    FY25

    Added for capacity ramp.

    Incremental machines planned
    200
    FY26

    Planned for factories.

    Incremental production workers planned
    >500
    FY26

    Planned for factories.

    Shares repurchased
    >8
    FY25

    More than 8 million shares repurchased.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Book to bill ratioapproximately 2x
    Orders bookings growth$59BUSD
    Gigawatts under contract83 GWGW
    M a acquisition contributionapproximately $3BUSD
    Backlog by segment end market$150BUSD
    Data center exposure pipeline>$2BUSD
    Incremental flow through margin

    Orderbook & backlog

    9
    Total backlog$150Bend FY25

    up $31B (25% YoY)

    Equipment backlog$64Bend FY25

    up $21B (50% YoY)

    Services backlog$86Bend FY25

    up $10B (13% YoY)

    Gas Power equipment backlog and slot reservations83 GW4Q25

    up from 62 GW sequentially

    Primarily due to strong U.S. demand, also agreements in Middle East, Vietnam, and Taiwan.

    Gas Power backlog40 GW4Q25

    up from 33 GW sequentially

    Gas Power slot reservation agreements (SRAs)43 GW4Q25

    up from 29 GW sequentially

    Electrification total backlog$35B4Q25

    up $4B sequentially, $11B YoY

    Representing Electrification's largest growth quarter on a dollar basis in FY25.

    Electrification equipment backlog$31B4Q25

    up >$10B YoY

    Wind orders$3B4Q25

    Largest order quarter of the year for the segment.

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Solid-state transformermilestone

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Prolec GEAcquisition of the remaining 50% ownership stake

    Received rapid approval from all required jurisdictions, allowing the acquisition to close on February 2, 2026. This will allow GE Vernova's full ownership and operation of Prolec for 11 months in 2026.

    Capital programs

    1
    Gas turbine output rampunderway
    Spent to date: Installed >200 new machines, added ~1000 production workers in FY25; plan for 200 incremental machines and 500 production workers in FY26
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: Substantial step-up in gas turbine output

    We remain on track to see a substantial step-up in gas turbine output in 3Q '26. We installed over 200 new machines in our factories while adding nearly 1,000 new production workers in '25. We plan on adding an incremental 200 machines and over 500 production workers in '26.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    U.S. government halt on offshore wind activity (Vineyard Wind project)Q4 FY25 (accrual), Q1 FY26 (potential revenue impact)

    Incremental accrual in 4Q FY25 for contract losses; potential negative impact of ~$250M on 2026 Wind revenue if installation not completed by end of March. FY25 Wind losses ~$600M (vs. $400M expectation).

    Mitigation: Force majeure declaration for incremental costs; working to complete installation by end of March if permission granted.

    Tariff uncertainty and permitting delays in U.S. onshore windOngoing

    Still difficult to call an inflection point in U.S. orders.

    Mitigation: Focus on what can be controlled.

    Capacity-ramp drag on near-term incremental marginsNear-term

    Not explicitly quantified, but mentioned as a factor.

    Mitigation: Investments in automation and robotics, lean initiatives.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Gas Power equipment backlog

    by end of 2026
    Current83 GW
    Target100 GW

    Why it matters

    Indicates continued strong demand and pricing for gas turbines, a key driver of future profitable growth.

    We expect to reach approximately 100 gigawatts under contract in '26.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Inquired about the nature of discussions, customer types, and positive pricing trends given the significant increase in Gas Power equipment orders and backlog.

    Management confirmed strengthening pricing, with slot reservation agreements (SRAs) showing 10-20 points higher pricing than existing backlog. They expect to reach 100 GW under contract by end of 2026, with a larger proportion being firm orders, and active discussions for 2031-2035 slots.

    I mean on the end of that, I'd say, yes, pricing does continue to strengthen. When we look at where we're trending with our slot reservation agreements today versus our existing backlog, there's another 10 to 20 points of pricing strength in the SRAs today.

    asked by Joe Ritchie · answered by Scott Strazik

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Gas Power Momentum and Backlog Growth

    GE Vernova experienced significant momentum in its Gas Power segment, securing an incremental 6 gigawatts of new contracts in the last three weeks of December 2025, contributing to a total of 24 gigawatts in Q4 FY25. This strong demand, particularly in the U.S., Middle East, Vietnam, and Taiwan, increased Gas Power equipment backlog and slot reservations from 62 gigawatts to 83 gigawatts sequentially. The company anticipates reaching approximately 100 gigawatts under contract by the end of 2026, with a projected shift towards a larger proportion of firm orders.

    02

    Electrification's Record Performance and Prolec GE Acquisition

    Electrification achieved its largest order quarter in history in Q4 FY25, with total backlog growing to $35 billion, up $4 billion sequentially and $11 billion year-over-year. Over $2 billion of Electrification's orders in FY25 were directly for data centers, more than tripling the 2024 total. The rapid approval and closing of the Prolec GE acquisition on February 2, 2026, is a strategic move expected to significantly boost Electrification's revenue to $13.5 billion-$14 billion in FY26, including approximately $3 billion from Prolec GE.

    03

    Offshore Wind Challenges and Mitigation

    The U.S. government's halt on offshore wind activity on December 22, 2025, led to an incremental accrual for contract losses in Q4 FY25 related to the Vineyard Wind project. While a force majeure🌐 declaration protects against additional incremental costs, the delay could negatively impact 2026 Wind revenue by approximately $250 million if installation of the remaining 11 turbines cannot be completed by the end of March 2026 due to vessel access limitations. FY25 Wind losses totaled approximately $600 million, exceeding prior expectations due to this stop work order.

    04

    Overall Backlog and Margin Expansion

    GE Vernova's total backlog expanded by $31 billion (25%) to $150 billion in FY25. Equipment backlog increased by $21 billion (50%) to $64 billion, and services backlog grew by $10 billion (13%) to $86 billion. The company successfully added $8 billion in equipment backlog margin dollars in FY25, surpassing the combined total of the prior two years, and expects to add at least as much in FY26, driven by higher-priced gas slot reservation agreements and strong demand in grid equipment.

    05

    Operational Investments and Lean Initiatives

    The company invested over $2 billion in R&D and CapEx in FY25, including installing over 200 new machines and adding nearly 1,000 production workers to prepare for a substantial step-up in gas turbine output by Q3 FY26. Lean initiatives contributed to a 2-day reduction in days sales outstanding in FY25, generating over $200 million in additional free cash flow. Investments in automation, robotics, and AI are also advancing to drive long-term productivity and margin expansion.

    06

    Long-term Growth and Innovation Pipeline

    GE Vernova is actively investing in future growth areas, including direct air capture, solid-state transformers, and fuel cell programs. The first solid-state transformer unit has been completed and is undergoing testing, with delivery to a hyperscaler customer expected in autumn 2026. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are progressing, with construction underway on the first plant in Ontario, positioning them to contribute meaningfully to the Power business's top line in the next decade.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.