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Gilead (GILD) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (Q4 FY25)· Health Care· Feb 10, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Gilead Q4 FY25 — Strong HIV and Livdelzi Performance Drives Sales Beat, Robust 2026 Launch Pipeline

Gilead closed FY25 with strong commercial execution, particularly in HIV and Livdelzi, driving total product sales above guidance. The company is entering 2026 with a robust pipeline, targeting four new commercial launches and five Phase III readouts across its core therapeutic areas, while maintaining expense discipline and a proactive approach to business development. This positions Gilead for continued growth with no major product LOEs until 2036.

Highlights

5
  • HIV business grew 6% year-over-year, driven by Biktarvy (7% growth) and HIV prevention (47% growth), exceeding updated guidance.

  • Yeztugo exceeded its 90% payer coverage goal ahead of target, with $150 million sales in 2025 and projected $800 million in 2026.

  • Livdelzi sales grew a remarkable 42% sequentially to $150 million in Q4, achieving over 50% market share in second-line PBC.

  • Total product sales of $28.9 billion (excluding Veklury $28 billion) exceeded guidance range, growing 1% year-over-year (5% excluding Part D impact).

  • Robust pipeline with up to 10 ongoing and potential new launches through 2027, including 4 targeted for 2026.

Concerns

5
  • HIV business faced an estimated $900 million headwind in 2025 due to Medicare Part D redesign.

  • Cell therapy sales were down 7% year-over-year to $1.8 billion in 2025, reflecting ongoing competition and clinical trial impacts.

  • Expected $300 million headwind from Veklury sales decline to approximately $600 million in 2026.

  • HIV growth in 2026 is expected to be impacted by approximately 2% due to a drug pricing agreement and proposed Affordable Care Act changes.

  • Cell therapy revenue is expected to decline approximately 10% in 2026 due to continued competitive headwinds.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Yeztugo revenue
approximately $800 million
medium materiality
High
Total HIV sales growth
approximately 6%
high materiality
High
Total product sales
$29.6 billion and $30 billion
high materiality
High
Base business sales
$29 million and $29.4 billion
high materiality
High
Base business sales growth
4% to 5%
high materiality
High
Veklury sales
approximately $600 million
medium materiality
High
Product gross margin
approximately 87%
high materiality
High
R&D expenses
increase a low single-digit percentage
medium materiality
High
Acquired IPR&D investments
approximately $300 million
medium materiality
High
SG&A expenses
increase by a mid-single-digit percentage
medium materiality
High
Non-GAAP operating income
between $13.8 billion and $14.3 billion
high materiality
High
Non-GAAP effective tax rate
approximately 20%
medium materiality
High
Non-GAAP diluted EPS
$8.45 and $8.85 per share
high materiality
High
Cell therapy revenue decline
approximately 10%
medium materiality
High
Return of free cash flow to shareholders
at least 50%
high materiality
High
Annual investment in early-stage opportunities
approximately $1 billion
medium materiality
High
Major product LOEs
none
high materiality
High
Ongoing and potential new launches
up to 10
high materiality
High
Commercial launches
4
high materiality
High
Phase III readouts
5
high materiality
High
FDA decisions
5
high materiality
High
BIC/LEN launch
potential launch in the second half of this year
high materiality
High
anito-cel launch
potential launch in the second half of this year
high materiality
High
Trodelvy FDA decisions for first-line metastatic TNBC
expected in the second half of 2026
high materiality
High
Bulevirtide US launch
2026
medium materiality
High
islatravir + lenacapavir Phase III update
first half of 2026
medium materiality
High
Trodelvy ASCENT-GYN-01 update
second half of this year
medium materiality
High
Trodelvy EVOKE-03 update
this year
medium materiality
High
Livdelzi IDEAL study update
Later this year
medium materiality
High
lenacapavir + broadly neutralizing antibodies Phase III trial initiation
second half of the year
medium materiality
High
anito-cel iMMagine-3 filing
2027 filing
medium materiality
High
once-yearly lenacapavir for PrEP availability
as early as 2028
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
HIV
Driven by higher demand for Biktarvy and Descovy, as well as the launch of Yeztugo. Sequentially, sales were up due to seasonal inventory dynamics, higher average realized price from favorable channel mix, and demand. Full year sales were $20.8 billion, up 6% year-over-year, driven by strong underlying demand growth.
$5.8 billion6%10%—
Liver Disease
Driven by continued strength for Livdelzi in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Full year sales of $3.2 billion were up 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher demand and partially offset by lower average realized price.
$844 million17%3%—
Trodelvy (Oncology)
Driven by higher demand in metastatic breast cancer treatment. Full year 2025 sales increased 6% to $1.4 billion, which more than offset the expected impact from the bladder cancer withdrawal in the U.S. at the end of 2024.
$384 million8%8%—
Cell Therapy
Sequentially up due to higher-than-expected patient treatments in advance of holidays and one-time pricing adjustments. Full year sales were $1.8 billion, down 7% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing in and out-of-class competition.
$458 million-6%6%—
Veklury
Full year 2025 Veklury revenue was $911 million, a decline of $900 million or 49% from 2024, mostly in line with expectations given lower COVID-19-related hospitalization trends.
$212 million———

Risks & headwinds

Medicare Part D redesign impact on HIV business 2025

estimated $900 million headwind

Cell therapy competitive headwinds 2025 and 2026

down 7% year-over-year in 2025; expected to decline approximately 10% in 2026

Mitigation:Preparing for anito-cel launch, focusing on differentiated profile and manufacturing capabilities.

Impact of growing number of clinical trials on cell therapy volumes 2025 and 2026

volumes being impacted

Veklury sales decline 2025 and 2026

$900 million decline in 2025; approximately $300 million headwind in 2026

Mitigation:Expected to be more than offset by growth in the base business.

Drug pricing agreement with U.S. government 2026

approximate 2% headwind to HIV growth

Proposed changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) 2026

approximate 2% headwind to HIV growth

Q&A highlights

Can you elaborate on the assumptions driving the $800 million guidance for Yeztugo in 2026, and what refill rates are anticipated for patients needing redosing?

Management is excited about Yeztugo's strong momentum, with key launch indicators tracking or exceeding expectations, including 90% payer coverage and 90% $0 co-pay access. They expect durable, sustained long-term growth beyond 2026. While early data on persistency is encouraging, it's too soon for specific assumptions, but efforts are underway to ensure patient adherence for second injections and beyond through auto-refill scripts, specialty pharmacy outreach, and digital reminders.

“All of our key launch indicators are basically tracking or exceeding our expectation. And that includes, of course, access, which is where it starts with about 90% payer coverage.”

asked by Chris Schott · answered by Johanna Mercier

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

HIV Business Performance and Prevention Market Expansion

Gilead's HIV business demonstrated robust growth in 2025, with sales up 6% year-over-year to $20.8 billion, driven by strong demand for Biktarvy and a 47% increase in the HIV prevention portfolio. This performance was achieved despite an estimated $900 million headwind from Medicare Part D redesign.

The launch of Yeztugo has been particularly successful, exceeding 90% payer coverage ahead of target and contributing $150 million in sales in 2025, with an expected $800 million in 2026. The company anticipates continued growth in HIV prevention, with Yeztugo expanding the addressable population and potentially becoming the market leader.

Oncology and Liver Disease Momentum

Trodelvy sales increased 6% to $1.4 billion in 2025, primarily due to higher demand in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, offsetting the bladder cancer withdrawal. Positive Phase III data from ASCENT-03 and ASCENT-04 have led to NCCN guideline updates, positioning Trodelvy as the only ADC recommended for first-line PD-L1 positive and negative, as well as second-line metastatic TNBC.

In liver disease, Livdelzi achieved remarkable sequential growth of 42% in Q4 to $150 million, securing over 50% market share in second-line PBC following a competitor's withdrawal. Updates from the Phase III IDEAL study are expected in 2026.

Cell Therapy Headwinds and Future Opportunities

Cell therapy sales declined 7% year-over-year to $1.8 billion in 2025, attributed to ongoing in-class and out-of-class competition, and the impact of a growing number of clinical trials. A further decline of approximately 10% is projected for 2026. Despite these headwinds, the company is preparing for the potential launch of anito-cel in the second half of 2026 for fourth-line or later relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, based on strong Phase II data showing 96% overall response and 74% complete response.

Future opportunities include a Phase III study for anito-cel in earlier lines of multiple myeloma.

Robust Pipeline and Upcoming Catalysts

Gilead boasts a strong pipeline with up to 10 ongoing and potential new launches through 2027, including four targeted commercial launches and five Phase III readouts in 2026. Key upcoming milestones include Phase III updates for islatravir plus lenacapavir in HIV, Trodelvy in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and advanced endometrial cancer, and Livdelzi in PBC.

The company also anticipates five FDA decisions in 2026, covering Bulevirtide, BIC/LEN, Trodelvy in first-line TNBC, and anito-cel.

Strategic Diversification and Financial Discipline

The company's diversification strategy over the past six years has resulted in a robust internal portfolio built through original research, early-stage partnerships, and M&A. Gilead remains committed to operating expense and M&A discipline, investing approximately $1 billion annually in early-stage opportunities.

Management emphasized a proactive and disciplined approach to later-stage acquisitions, aiming to add synergistic, de-risked assets to turbocharge top-line growth, while noting no major product LOEs until 2036.

Long-Acting HIV Treatment Development

Gilead is advancing a comprehensive HIV pipeline, with lenacapavir as a backbone, aiming for up to seven additional product launches by 2033, including daily, weekly, monthly, twice-yearly, and yearly treatments. The company has prioritized GS-3242, a long-acting INSTI, for development as a potential twice-yearly HIV treatment in combination with lenacapavir, citing its favorable tolerability and resistance profile.

Development of GS-1219 and GS-1614 has been discontinued to focus on the most promising programs.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.