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    GSK
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    GSK Q4 FY25 earnings call GSK

    Feb 4, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    GSK Q4 FY25 — Strong Specialty Medicines Growth and Pipeline Acceleration

    GSK delivered strong Q4 FY25 results, driven by robust growth in Specialty Medicines and Vaccines, alongside solid cash generation. The company is focused on maximizing launch products, accelerating late-stage pipeline assets, and executing strategic business development to drive continued profitable growth in 2026 and beyond, while navigating expected headwinds in certain segments and currency.

    Highlights

    5
    • Overall sales were up 7% to over GBP 32 billion, driven by Specialty Medicines.

    • Specialty Medicines sales grew 17%, with Vaccines also contributing.

    • Core operating profit grew 11% and EPS was up 12%.

    • Cash generation was strong at GBP 8.9 billion, supporting a 2p dividend upgrade to 66p.

    • R&D output remained positive with 5 FDA approvals and 7 new pivotal trial starts.

    Concerns

    5
    • ZEJULA sales decreased due to FDA labeling restrictions.

    • Vaccines sales growth is expected to be a low single-digit decline to stable in 2026 due to slowing U.S. Shingrix immunization rates and China inventory management.

    • General Medicines sales are expected to be a low single-digit decline to stable in 2026 due to pricing pressures and generic competition.

    • The Medicare redesign from the IRA impacted the broader portfolio by $400 million to $500 million.

    • Currency is expected to be a headwind in 2026, impacting sales by -3% and operating profit by -6%.

    Guidance & targets

    28
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Overall Sales Growth
    3% to 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Core Operating Profit Growth
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Core EPS Growth
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend
    70p
    medium materiality
    High
    Specialty Medicines Sales Growth
    low double-digit percentage growth
    high materiality
    High
    HIV Sales Growth
    mid- to high single-digit growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Vaccines Sales Growth
    low single-digit decline to stable
    medium materiality
    Medium
    General Medicines Sales Growth
    low single-digit decline to stable
    medium materiality
    Medium
    SG&A Growth
    low single-digit percentage
    low materiality
    High
    R&D Growth
    grow ahead of sales
    low materiality
    High
    Sales CAGR (2021-2026)
    8%
    high materiality
    High
    Operating Profit CAGR (2021-2026)
    13%
    high materiality
    High
    Cash Generation
    more than GBP 10 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4M HIV Treatment Filing
    on track to file
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4M HIV Treatment Launch
    on track to launch
    medium materiality
    High
    Q6M HIV Treatment Launch
    28 to 30 launch
    high materiality
    High
    Rapp Therapeutics Acquisition Close
    close this quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    Efimosfermin Phase III (Nebula) Start
    start later this year
    medium materiality
    High
    MORES Phase III Recruitment Start
    start recruitment for pivotal Phase III trials
    medium materiality
    High
    MORES Further Pivotal Study Starts
    further pivotal study starts
    medium materiality
    High
    Ris-Rez Phase III Starts
    extensive plans for additional Ris-Rez Phase III starts
    medium materiality
    High
    BLENREP Cord Regimen Study Start
    start a study
    low materiality
    High
    Velzatinib First-Line GIST Study Start
    first line to start later this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Bepirovirsen Data Sharing
    sharing these data with regulators
    medium materiality
    High
    Camlipixant Phase III Data Report
    report Phase III data
    medium materiality
    High
    GSK283 Phase II Data Generation
    generate data by the end of this year
    low materiality
    High
    VH184 Phase II Start
    move into Phase II this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Q6M PrEP Phase I Start
    Phase I will be starting this year
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    6
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Specialty Medicines
    Driven by strong Benlysta and Nucala performance, with vaccines also contributing.
    17%
    Respiratory Immunology and Inflammation
    Driven by strong Benlysta and Nucala performance. Benlysta grew 22%, Nucala grew 15% and delivered $2 billion for the year.
    18%
    Oncology
    Jemperli sales were up 89%, and Ojjaara grew 60%.
    43%
    HIV
    Powered by accelerated patient demand for long-acting injectables and Dovato. U.S. sales grew 14%.
    Cabenuva growth: 42%Aplitude growth: 62%Long-acting injectables as % of U.S. sales: 1/3
    11%
    Vaccines
    Driven by European and international region sales of Shingrix and Bexero. Shingrix growth offset by slowing U.S. immunization rates and China inventory management.
    Shingrix sales: GBP 3.6 billionShingrix growth: 8%Bexero growth: 16%Bexero ex-U.S. sales: 69% of globalMenB market share (U.S.): 74%
    GBP 9.2 billion2%
    GenMed
    Strong growth of TRELEGY was offset by other respiratory and established products. TRELEGY continues to be the top-selling brand for asthma and COPD globally.
    slightly down

    Operational metrics

    42
    Cash generation
    GBP 8.9 billion
    FY25

    Strong cash generation for the full year.

    Dividend declared
    66pup 2p
    FY25

    Dividend declared for FY25, representing an upgrade.

    Core operating profit growth
    11%
    FY25

    Growth rate at constant exchange rates (CER).

    Core EPS growth
    12%
    FY25

    Growth rate at constant exchange rates (CER).

    Operating margin increase
    110 bps
    FY25

    Increase in operating margin for the full year.

    Total operating margin accretion (last 4 years)
    470 bps
    last 4 years

    Total accretion at CER over the last 4 years.

    SG&A margin improvement
    90 bps
    FY25

    Primary driver of operating margin increase.

    Gross margin benefit from portfolio transition
    40 bps
    FY25

    Gross margin continued to benefit from the portfolio transition towards specialty.

    Core charges
    GBP 300 million
    Q4 FY25

    Charges taken in Q4 to drive productivity benefits.

    Reported operating margin
    29.9%
    FY25

    Currency was a headwind, lowering the reported margin.

    Cash generated from operations
    GBP 8.9 billionup GBP 1.6 billion YoY
    FY25

    Driven by higher operating profit, favorable RAR movements, and CureVac settlement.

    Cash generated from operations (excl. Zantac)
    more than GBP 10 billion
    FY25

    Excluding Zantac payments.

    Zantac payments
    GBP 1.2 billion
    FY25

    Payments made in 2025.

    Zantac total payments
    GBP 1.9 billion
    total

    Total amount paid, with settlement process materially complete.

    Underlying free cash generation (before investment)
    over GBP 8 billion
    FY25

    Cash generated before investment decisions.

    CapEx and BD deployment
    GBP 4.5 billion
    FY25

    Amount deployed in capital expenditure and business development.

    Shareholder distributions
    GBP 4 billion
    FY25

    Total distributions through dividend and share buyback.

    Shares repurchased
    93 million
    FY25

    Number of shares repurchased.

    Average share repurchase price
    1473
    FY25

    Average price for shares repurchased.

    Remaining share buyback
    GBP 0.6 billion
    H1 FY26

    Amount remaining to be completed in the first half of 2026.

    Net debt to EBITDA
    1.3xrelatively stable YoY
    FY25

    Leverage ratio, including absorption of Zantac and buyback.

    Medicare redesign (IRA) impact
    $400 million to $500 million
    FY25

    Impact on the broader portfolio from the Inflation Reduction Act, navigated near the upper end of the range.

    Currency impact on sales (2026 guidance)
    -3%
    FY26

    Expected headwind if rates hold at January 28th closing rates.

    Currency impact on operating profit (2026 guidance)
    -6%
    FY26

    Expected headwind if rates hold at January 28th closing rates.

    U.S. eligible asthma patients on biologic
    27%
    current

    Biopenetration rate in severe asthma.

    Biologic discontinuation rate (severe asthma)
    65%
    first 12 months

    Rate of discontinuation for patients starting on biologics.

    Eye care professionals engaged for Blenrep (U.S.)
    18,000
    current

    Number of eye care professionals actively educated for Blenrep launch.

    Eye care professionals engaged for Blenrep (previous launch)
    5,000 to 6,000
    previous launch

    Number of eye care professionals engaged during the first Blenrep launch.

    Blenrep usage academic vs community
    50-50
    current

    Split of Blenrep usage between academic centers and community settings.

    HIV treatment market value
    $22 billion
    total

    Total value of the HIV market, with treatment accounting for 90%.

    Cabenuva switches from competitor products (U.S.)
    more than 75%
    this quarter

    Rate of patient switches to Cabenuva from competitor products in the U.S.

    Addressable market for Q2M HIV
    15%
    current

    Percentage of HIV patients willing to take a 2-monthly long-acting injectable.

    Addressable market for Q4M HIV
    30%
    future

    Projected percentage of HIV patients willing to take a 4-monthly long-acting injectable.

    Addressable market for Q6M HIV
    50%
    future

    Projected percentage of HIV patients willing to take a 6-monthly long-acting injectable.

    COPD patients globally
    300 million
    current

    Global number of individuals with COPD.

    COPD cost to U.S. healthcare
    $7 billion
    per year

    Annual cost associated with COPD in the U.S. healthcare system.

    Chronic hepatitis B patients worldwide
    250 million
    current

    Number of people affected by chronic hepatitis B globally.

    Chronic hepatitis B deaths per year
    1 million
    per year

    Annual deaths caused by chronic hepatitis B.

    Chronic hepatitis B accounts for liver cancer cases
    56%
    current

    Percentage of liver cancer cases attributed to chronic hepatitis B.

    Functional cure reduces liver cancer risk
    90%
    current

    Reduction in liver cancer risk with functional cure of chronic hepatitis B.

    Severe food allergies impact (U.S.)
    17 million patients
    current

    Number of patients impacted by severe food allergies in the U.S.

    Economic burden of severe food allergies (U.S.)
    $33 billion
    current

    Estimated economic burden of severe food allergies in the U.S.

    Industry KPIs

    11
    MetricValueDetails
    Prescription volume
    EPS revenue guidance
    Pricing policy impact$400 million to $500 millionUSD
    Product franchise net sales
    Pipeline clinical milestones
    Regulatory approvals filings
    Therapeutic drug market share
    Geographic regional revenue growth
    Clinical trial efficacy safety data
    Patent expiry loe biosimilar erosion
    Business development capacity deal size appetiteGBP 4.5 billionGBP

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Rapp TherapeuticsAcquisition

    Agreement to acquire Rapp Therapeutics, whose lead asset is Ozureprubart, a potential best-in-class long-acting anti-IgE monoclonal for food allergy, currently in Phase II. Food allergy impacts over 17 million patients in the U.S. with an estimated $33 billion economic burden.

    Risks & headwinds

    8
    FDA labeling restrictions for ZEJULAQ4 FY25

    Sales decreased

    Mitigation: Remaining focused on the potential for BLENREP.

    Slowing U.S. Shingrix immunization rates2026

    Offsetting Shingrix sales growth, contributing to low single-digit decline to stable for Vaccines in 2026.

    Mitigation: Focus on comorbid patients in Europe, expanded public funding in Japan, and market share growth in China.

    China Shingrix inventory management by partner2026

    Offsetting Shingrix sales growth, contributing to low single-digit decline to stable for Vaccines in 2026.

    Pricing pressures and generic competition in established portfolio2026

    Contributing to low single-digit decline to stable for General Medicines in 2026.

    Mitigation: Targeted approach for BLUJEPA and leadership position of TRELEGY.

    Impact of Medicare redesign from Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)FY25

    Near the upper end of $400 million to $500 million range.

    Currency headwinds2026

    Expected impact of -3% on sales and -6% on operating profit if rates hold at January 28th closing rates.

    Annualization of RSV settlementQ2 2026

    Operating profit growth will be heavily weighted towards the second half.

    Dolutegravir loss of exclusivity (LOE)Starting April 2028

    A 'glide path, not a cliff' starting in April 2028 in the U.S. and July 2028 in Europe, leading to a dip in the franchise in 2029 and 2030.

    Mitigation: Transition to newer long-acting regimens (Cabenuva, Apretude), development of Q4M and Q6M pipeline, and new molecules with IP coverage into the 2040s.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How does GSK segment its overlapping respiratory products (Nucala, Exdensur, IL-33, TSLP) given multiple competitors, and how should investors think about potential double-counting?

    Tony Wood explained the strategy for COPD by stratifying patients into high EO, intermediate T2, and low T2 populations, positioning different long-acting mechanisms (IL-5, Exdensur, Nucala, TSLP, IL-33) accordingly. Luke Miels added that the company will not shy from internal competition and is prioritizing long-acting Exdensur for COPD, noting strong early uptake for Nucala COPD in the U.S.

    I think what's important to understand about COPD, James, obviously, huge opportunity there, 300 million individuals globally and significant cost to the U.S. health care system, as I outlined in the presentation. But it's a complex disease. It's a heterogeneous disease. And that's why we're placing ourselves across a range of different long-acting mechanisms.

    asked by James Gordon · answered by Tony Wood

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Focus for 2026

    GSK is prioritizing three key areas for 2026: driving top-line growth by maximizing launch products like Blenrep and Exdensur, accelerating late-stage pipeline assets such as B7-H3, B7-H4, and Velzatinib in oncology, and pursuing strategic business development, exemplified by the recent Ozekibart acquisition. The company aims to simplify operations, enhance accountability, and leverage AI and technology, supported by recent executive team changes to strengthen commercial leadership.

    02

    HIV Portfolio Transformation

    GSK is confident in its leadership in HIV care, with 2025 sales growth of 11% driven by long-acting injectables and the Dovato regimen. Long-acting injectables now constitute one-third of U.S. sales, with Cabenuva growing 42%. The company is advancing its long-acting pipeline, including a potential twice-yearly treatment regimen with IP protection through 2040, aiming for a 2028-2030 launch for Q6M treatment and a 2031 launch for Q6M PrEP. This strategy is designed to navigate the dolutegravir LOE and drive significant long-term growth.

    03

    Respiratory & Inflammation Leadership

    The respiratory portfolio saw strong performance, with Benlysta growing 22% and Nucala achieving 15% growth to $2 billion, marking its tenth consecutive year of double-digit growth. The launch of Exdensur, the first 6-monthly biologic for severe eosinophilic asthma, targets the significant bio-naive population, with market research indicating high patient preference for its dosing schedule and demonstrated 72% reduction in exacerbations. GSK is also developing a differentiated pipeline for COPD, stratifying by patient type.

    04

    Oncology Pipeline Progress

    GSK's oncology pipeline is advancing, with Jemperli sales up 89% in endometrial cancer and Ojjaara growing 60% with a new NCCN Category 1 recommendation for anemia. Blenrep, relaunched in 15 markets, is seeing encouraging community uptake, with 50% of current usage outside academic centers, despite a slower ramp-up due to eye care coordination. The company is also progressing Velzatinib in GIST and its B7-H3 and B7-H4 ADCs with multiple Phase III trials planned.

    05

    Pipeline Acceleration and Business Development

    R&D efforts secured 5 FDA approvals and initiated 7 new pivotal trials in 2025, including for Exdensur, Efimosfermin, and B7-H3 ADC. GSK is accelerating development timelines and accessing innovation through business development, such as the acquisition of Rapp Therapeutics for Ozureprubart, a potential best-in-class anti-IgE monoclonal for food allergy, which is expected to close this quarter and move into Phase III. The company emphasizes dynamic resource allocation to promising assets.

    06

    Financial Performance and Capital Allocation

    GSK achieved 11% core operating profit growth and 12% core EPS growth in 2025, with operating margin increasing by 110 basis points. Cash generated from operations was GBP 8.9 billion. The company deployed GBP 4.5 billion in CapEx and BD, repurchased 93 million shares, and maintained a strong balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA at 1.3x, absorbing GBP 1.9 billion in total Zantac payments.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.