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    HON
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL Q4 FY24 earnings call HON

    Feb 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Honeywell Q4 FY24 — Announcing Tri-Split, Exceeding Guidance, and Strong Capital Deployment

    Honeywell announced a significant portfolio transformation, planning to separate its Automation and Aerospace Technologies into independent public companies, alongside the previously announced Advanced Materials spin, to unlock focused growth and value. Despite navigating an uneven operating environment and tempered short-cycle demand, the company exceeded Q4 FY24 guidance and deployed substantial capital. The 2025 outlook is set with a realistic baseline, acknowledging macroeconomic challenges while emphasizing long-term growth potential through strategic investments and operational excellence.

    Highlights

    5
    • Exceeded or met high end of guidance for organic sales growth and adjusted earnings growth in Q4 FY24.

    • Deployed over $14 billion of capital in 2024, including 4 acquisitions for approximately $9 billion, on track to surpass $25 billion commitment through 2025.

    • Record backlog of $35.3 billion in Q4 FY24, up 11% YoY (6% excluding acquisitions).

    • Full year 2024 adjusted EPS grew 4% (9% excluding Bombardier impact).

    • Announced full separation of Automation and Aerospace Technologies, creating three industry-leading public companies.

    Concerns

    5
    • Evolving geopolitical situation, challenging global macroeconomic conditions, and tempered demand expectation in some end markets may pressure near-term momentum in 2025.

    • Segment margins declined 70 basis points YoY in Q4 FY24 (excluding Bombardier impact, adjusted EPS improved 9%).

    • Full year 2024 segment profit grew 1% with margin contraction of 90 basis points (20 basis points excluding Bombardier).

    • Fourth quarter free cash flow declined 27% YoY, mostly due to cash contributions related to the Bombardier agreement.

    • 2025 outlook assumes a continuation of current industrial demand environment and does not assume a recovery in short-cycle demand, with potential headwinds from strengthening U.S. dollar and new tariffs.

    Guidance & targets

    36
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full Year 2025 Sales
    $39.6 billion to $40.6 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Organic Sales Growth (ex-Bombardier)
    1% to 4%
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Sales
    $9.5 billion to $9.7 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Organic Sales Growth
    Flat to up 2%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Segment Margin
    Up 60 to 100 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Segment Margin (ex-Bombardier)
    Down 10 to up 30 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Segment Margin
    22.5% to 22.9%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Adjusted EPS
    $10.10 to $10.50
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Adjusted EPS (ex-Bombardier)
    Down 2% to up 2%
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Free Cash Flow
    $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Free Cash Flow Growth (ex-Bombardier)
    Down 2% to up 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Effective Tax Rate
    20%
    low materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Effective Tax Rate
    22%
    low materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Average Shares Outstanding
    Around 649 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Average Shares Outstanding
    Approximately 654 million
    low materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Repositioning Expenses
    $150 million to $250 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Pension Income
    Approximately $550 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Other Below-the-Line Expenses
    $1.325 billion to $1.375 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Aerospace Technologies Organic Sales Growth (ex-Bombardier)
    Mid-single-digit to high single-digit range
    high materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Industrial Automation Sales Growth
    Down low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Building Automation Sales Growth
    Low mid-single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Energy and Sustainability Solutions Organic Sales Growth
    Low single-digit range
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Aerospace Technologies Segment Margin (ex-Bombardier)
    Around 26%
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Aerospace Technologies Sales Growth
    Mid-single-digit growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Industrial Automation Sales Growth
    Down low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Building Automation Sales Growth
    Up low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 Energy and Sustainability Solutions Sales Growth
    Down low single digits
    medium materiality
    High
    Advanced Materials Spin Completion
    End of 2025 or early 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Automation and Aerospace Separation Completion
    Second half of 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Total Capital Deployment
    Surpass $25 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Share Count Reduction
    At least 1%
    medium materiality
    High
    Separation One-Time Costs
    $1.5 billion to $2 billion
    high materiality
    Medium
    Automation Free Cash Flow Conversion
    Around 100%
    high materiality
    High
    Aerospace Free Cash Flow Conversion
    Around 100%
    high materiality
    High
    Stranded Costs Takeout
    Within 18 to 24 months post spin
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year 2025 Price Realization
    Above 2%
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Aerospace Technologies
    Annual sales of $15 billion with a streamlined cost structure yielding best-in-class segment margin of 26%. Significant expanding high-margin revenue stream from retrofits, modifications, and upgrades (RMUs). Robust R&D investment profile. Well-positioned for unprecedented demand in traditional aerospace and defense, and new electrification/sustainability offerings. CAES acquisition will drive accretive sales and segment profit growth but generate margin headwinds due to integration in 2025.
    Segment Margin: 26%R&D Investment: ~4% of sales (Honeywell-funded)R&D Investment: ~7% of sales (customer-funded)Advanced Air Mobility Wins: >$10 billion
    $15 billion26%
    Honeywell Automation
    As a stand-alone $18 billion business, with current segment margin of 23%. Leading market position across process, industrial, energy, and building end markets. Vast installed base globally. Positioned to benefit from secular growth drivers like labor scarcity, capital projects funding, energy security, and supply chain resiliency. Rapid advancement in automation technologies, including industrial AI, drives demand for sensors, controls, process, and software technology.
    Segment Margin: 23%Buildings using Honeywell technology: >10 millionProcess plants using Honeywell technology: 17,000
    $18 billion23%
    Advanced Materials
    Generated approximately $4 billion of sales in 2024 with sector-leading EBITDA margins of about 25% on an estimated stand-alone cost basis. Built a robust economic moat with efficient supply chain and global customer base. Solid competitive positioning from differentiated IP portfolio. Focus on developing new, more sustainable solutions through next-gen chemistry.
    EBITDA Margin: ~25% (estimated stand-alone cost basis)R&D Investment (past 8 years): >$1 billionActive Patents and Applications: >5,000Specialized Technologists and Engineers: >400
    Approximately $4 billionAbout 25% (EBITDA margin)
    Industrial Automation
    Organic growth improved 5 points sequentially in Q4 FY24. 2025 sales outlook remains largely dependent on timing of recovery in products and customer CapEx decisions. Margins should expand in 2025 due to commercial excellence and favorable mix impacts, including from expected sale of PPE.
    Up 5 points sequentially (Q4 FY24)
    Building Automation
    Organic growth improved 5 points sequentially in Q4 FY24. Expected to see growth led by solutions business in 2025, capitalizing on strong project order rates in data center, airports, and hospitality. Margins anticipated to continue to grow in 2025, driven by productivity actions and benefit from Access Solutions acquisition.
    Up 5 points sequentially (Q4 FY24)

    Operational metrics

    25
    Capital deployed
    $14 billion
    FY24

    Deployed in 2024, on track to surpass $25 billion commitment through 2025.

    Acquisitions contribution to sales
    $800 million
    FY24

    From 2024 acquisitions, contributed to full year sales at accretive growth rates.

    Acquisitions contribution to sales
    $2 billion
    FY25

    From 2024 acquisitions, expected to contribute to 2025 sales at accretive rates and become part of organic growth towards year-end.

    Segment profit growth
    1%YoY
    FY24

    Full year 2024 segment profit growth with margin contraction.

    Segment profit growth (ex-Bombardier)
    6%YoY
    FY24

    Full year 2024 segment profit growth, excluding Bombardier impact.

    Capital expenditures
    $1.2 billion
    FY24

    Deployed in 2024.

    Capital expenditures increase
    $100 millionYoY
    FY25

    Anticipated increase for 2025, funded by improvements in working capital efficiency.

    Dividends paid
    $2.9 billion
    FY24

    Paid in 2024, dividend raised for 15th time in 14 years.

    Share repurchases
    $1.7 billion
    FY24

    Executed in 2024.

    Share buyback plan
    $3 billion
    Next 12 months

    Planned for 2025 to reduce share count.

    Below-the-line costs impact on EPS
    $0.52YoY negative pressure
    FY25

    Negative pressure on earnings versus previous year at midpoint of guidance.

    M&A profit contribution to EPS
    $0.33
    FY25

    Expected from 2024 acquisitions, includes integration expenses.

    PPE business exit impact on EPS
    -$0.05
    FY25

    Reduction in 2025 earnings, though divestiture will be accretive to growth and margins.

    FX impact on sales
    -$400 million
    FY25

    Forecasted reduction in reported sales, utilizing year-end 2024 exchange rates.

    FX impact on adjusted EPS
    -$0.12
    FY25

    Forecasted reduction in adjusted EPS, utilizing year-end 2024 exchange rates.

    Segment profit growth contribution to EPS
    $0.22
    FY25

    Expected at the midpoint of guidance.

    Pension income impact on Q1 EPS
    -$0.09
    Q1 FY25

    Pressure on Q1 EPS.

    Tax rate impact on Q1 EPS
    -$0.13
    Q1 FY25

    Pressure on Q1 EPS.

    Organic sales growth
    3%YoY
    FY24

    Full year 2024 organic sales growth.

    Organic sales growth (ex-Bombardier)
    4%YoY
    FY24

    Full year 2024 organic sales growth, excluding Bombardier impact.

    Q4 Organic Sales Growth (ex-Bombardier)
    6%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 FY24 organic sales growth, excluding Bombardier impact.

    Q4 Organic Sales Growth Improvement
    5 pointsSequential
    Q4 FY24

    Sequential improvement in both Industrial Automation and Building Automation from Q3.

    Aerospace APUs delivered
    >100,000
    Lifetime

    Auxiliary power units delivered, a technology invented by Honeywell.

    Aerospace Engines delivered
    72,000
    Since 1969

    Engines delivered since 1969.

    Global aircraft using Honeywell Avionics
    90%
    Current

    Staggering percentage of global aircraft using Honeywell Avionics.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Backlog book to bill$35.3 billionUSD
    Organic orders growth11%%
    Named project wins pipeline$17 billionUSD
    Aftermarket demand indicators
    Segment organic growth margin
    Spin stranded cost portfolio moves$1.5 billion to $2 billionUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Total Backlog$35.3 billionQ4 FY24

    Up 11% YoY

    Total Backlog (excluding acquisitions)nullQ4 FY24

    Up 6% YoY, Up 1% sequentially

    Particular strength in ESS.

    Fourth Quarter OrdersnullQ4 FY24

    Up 11% organically YoY

    Growing in all 4 segments.

    Deals & partnerships

    7
    BombardierAgreement to provide next generation of technology for current and future aircraft in avionics, propulsion, and satellite communications.$17 billion (lifetime value)Lifetime

    Includes first deployment of next-gen Anthem avionics at scale. Announced in Q4 FY24.

    QuantinuumQuantum computing venture.

    Honeywell remains committed to Quantinuum. Making great strides in technical and commercial progression. Eventual IPO expected.

    SoftBankPartnership with Quantinuum to explore innovative quantum computing solutions.

    Aims to overcome limitations of classical AI and explore Quantum data center business model. Latest validation of technical progress.

    PPE businessSale of Personal Protective Equipment business.

    Part of exiting noncore lines of business. Assumed midyear exit in 2025 guidance.

    Advanced MaterialsPlanned spin-off of sustainability-focused specialty chemicals and materials business.

    Previously announced. Will operate as a stand-alone company with strong non-investment-grade credit rating.

    Automation TechnologiesPlanned full separation into an independent public company.

    Decision by Honeywell Board of Directors. Will be a pure-play automation leader.

    Aerospace TechnologiesPlanned full separation into an independent public company.

    Decision by Honeywell Board of Directors. Will be a diversified premier aerospace technology and system provider.

    Risks & headwinds

    9
    Uneven operating environment and tempered demandNear-term (2025)

    May pressure near-term momentum

    Mitigation: Offering a realistic baseline for 2025 performance without assuming short-cycle recovery; focus on innovation and productivity.

    Evolving geopolitical situationNear-term (2025)

    May pressure near-term momentum

    Mitigation: Incorporated into 2025 outlook; focus on resilience and adaptability.

    Challenging global macroeconomic conditionsNear-term (2025)

    May pressure near-term momentum

    Mitigation: Incorporated into 2025 outlook; focus on resilience and adaptability.

    Strengthening U.S. dollarFY25

    Reduce reported sales by ~$400 million and adjusted EPS by ~$0.12

    Mitigation: Utilizing year-end 2024 exchange rates in guidance.

    New tariffsFY25

    Magnitude being determined; not currently included in guidance

    Mitigation: Working to determine impact; China and Canada tariffs not material; Mexico tariffs manageable.

    CAES acquisition margin dilutionFY25

    Roughly 100 basis point decline in Aerospace segment margin (ex-Bombardier) in 2025

    Mitigation: Integration efforts underway; acquisition expected to drive accretive sales and segment profit growth long-term.

    Lower-margin business mixFY25

    Mix headwind in 2025

    Mitigation: Productivity actions and commercial excellence partially offset; expected to hold until broader acceleration in higher-margin short-cycle product end markets.

    Reduced pension incomeFY25

    Down approximately $50 million YoY in FY25; ~$0.09 pressure on Q1 FY25 EPS

    Mitigation: Due to a previously communicated one-time item in Europe; accounted for in guidance.

    Higher net interest expenseFY25

    Up $275 million to $325 million YoY in FY25; ~$0.33 pressure on FY25 EPS

    Mitigation: Primarily driven by M&A interest expense; accounted for in guidance.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Short-cycle demand recovery

    Next quarter / through 2025
    CurrentMuted; no recovery assumed in 2025 guidance
    TargetSigns of improvement or acceleration

    Why it matters

    A recovery in short-cycle demand would provide significant upside to the current prudent 2025 outlook, particularly for Industrial Automation and Building Automation margins.

    Our baseline outlook for 2025 assumes a continuation of current industrial demand environment throughout the year and does not assume a recovery in our end markets.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What are the estimated stranded/standup costs for the Automation and Aerospace separations, and what are the expected free cash flow conversion rates/margin profiles for the individual companies?

    One-time separation costs are estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Stranded costs are not precisely quantified yet but are expected to be absorbed within 18-24 months post-spin. Both Automation and Aerospace are targeted to achieve around 100% free cash flow conversion.

    So Aerospace should be around 100% free cash flow conversion. That's -- the business should be operating at that level. And for our Automation businesses, that free cash flow is also expected to be at around 100% free cash flow conversion. So that's what we're aiming for as far as going through this year and then next year.

    asked by Julian Mitchell · answered by Mike Stepniak

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Portfolio Transformation and Tri-Split Announcement

    Honeywell announced a comprehensive plan to separate its Automation and Aerospace Technologies businesses into independent public companies, in addition to the previously announced spin-off of Advanced Materials. This strategic move, expected to complete in the second half of 2026 for Automation and Aerospace, and by end of 2025 or early 2026 for Advanced Materials, aims to create three pure-play entities with tailored strategies, enhanced financial flexibility, and focused capital allocation to drive long-term profitable growth. The separation is intended to be tax-free for shareholders and will incur one-time📎 costs of $1.5 billion to $2 billion.

    02

    Q4 FY24 Performance and 2025 Outlook

    Honeywell concluded 2024 on a strong note, exceeding or meeting the high end of its organic sales growth and adjusted EPS guidance for the fourth quarter. Full-year organic sales increased 3% (4% ex-Bombardier), and adjusted EPS grew 4% (9% ex-Bombardier). The company's 2025 outlook is set with a realistic baseline, anticipating 2% to 5% organic sales growth (1% to 4% ex-Bombardier) and adjusted EPS of $10.10 to $10.50 (up 2% to 6% or down 2% to up 2% ex-Bombardier), without assuming a recovery in short-cycle demand.

    03

    Rationale for Automation and Aerospace Separation

    The decision to separate Automation and Aerospace stems from increasingly divergent strategic pathways for these businesses. Aerospace requires focus on capacity expansion, supply chain transformation, and electrification, while Automation prioritizes AI, digital transformation, and energy security. As independent entities, each company can pursue dedicated growth strategies, optimize capital deployment, and benefit from focused leadership, ultimately unlocking greater value for stakeholders. Honeywell Automation will be an $18 billion business with 23% segment margin, and Honeywell Aerospace a $15 billion business with 26% segment margin.

    04

    Capital Deployment and Shareholder Returns

    In 2024, Honeywell deployed over $14 billion in capital, including $9 billion for four acquisitions, and remains on track to surpass its $25 billion commitment through 2025. The company also executed $1.7 billion in share repurchases (8 million shares) and raised its dividend for the 15th time in 14 years. For 2025, Honeywell plans to deploy over $3 billion to reduce its share count by at least 1%, demonstrating conviction in future value creation and attractive stock valuation.

    05

    Segment-Specific 2025 Outlook and Drivers

    Aerospace Technologies is expected to lead growth in 2025 with mid-single-digit to high single-digit organic sales growth (ex-Bombardier), driven by supply chain improvements and robust backlog. Industrial Automation sales are projected to be down low single digits due to muted short-cycle demand, while Building Automation anticipates low mid-single-digit growth from strong project orders in data centers, airports, and hospitality. Energy and Sustainability Solutions expects low single-digit organic sales growth, supported by a robust pipeline and global energy project demand.

    06

    Below-the-Line Impacts and Margin Dynamics

    The 2025 EPS guidance includes significant below-the-line impacts, notably a $0.52 negative pressure from items like higher net interest expense ($0.33), increased repositioning expenses ($0.10), and reduced pension income ($0.09) due to a one-time📎 European item. While three segments (IA, BA, ESS) are expected to expand margins, Aerospace margins will see a roughly 100 basis point decline (ex-Bombardier) due to the dilutive impact and integration costs of the CAES acquisition, offsetting overall company margin expansion.

    07

    Quantinuum Progress and Future Plans

    Honeywell remains committed to Quantinuum, highlighting its technical and commercial progression. A recent partnership with SoftBank to explore quantum computing solutions for AI and quantum data center models was cited as validation. The company looks forward to an eventual IPO for Quantinuum, indicating its continued strategic importance within the portfolio.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.