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Hershey (HSY) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (Q4 FY25)· Consumer Staples· Feb 5, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Hershey Q4 FY25 — Strong Sales Growth and Margin Recovery Outlook

Hershey concluded FY25 with robust Q4 sales growth, driven by strong performance in North America Confectionery and Salty Snacks, despite significant cocoa inflation and macroeconomic volatility. The company is entering 2026 with a clear strategy focused on accelerating sustainable sales growth, restoring margins, and increasing investments in innovation and brand building. Management anticipates substantial gross margin recovery and continued top-line momentum, positioning for long-term value creation.

Highlights

5
  • Total Hershey net sales increased 7% in Q4 FY25, contributing to 4.4% net sales growth for the full year.

  • U.S. Salty Snacking retail sales growth accelerated to 15.6% in Q4 FY25, with SkinnyPop up 8% and Dot's Pretzels up 21%.

  • AAA program generated over $300 million in net savings over the past 2 years, exceeding plan, with an additional $100 million projected for 2026.

  • Adjusted gross margin recovery of approximately 400 basis points is expected in 2026.

  • Dividend raised by 6%.

Concerns

3
  • Adjusted gross margin decreased 650 basis points in Q4 FY25 due to commodity inflation, $30 million in incremental tariff expenses, and lower volume.

  • International segment organic constant currency net sales declined 1.9% in Q4 FY25 due to price elasticity and shipment timing.

  • First quarter 2026 adjusted EPS is expected to decline low single digits due to residual commodity/tariff pressure and elevated investment levels.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 total company net sales growth
4% to 5%
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 total company organic net sales growth
2.5% to 3.5%
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 net price realization
approximately 10 percentage points
medium materiality
High
First quarter 2026 total company net sales increase
high single digits
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted gross margin recovery
around 400 basis points
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 total cost of goods sold
low single-digit decline
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted effective tax rate
25% to 27%
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 other expense
approximately $15 million
low materiality
High
Full-year 2026 interest expense
$200 million and $210 million
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS growth
30% to 35%
high materiality
High
First quarter 2026 adjusted EPS growth
decline low single digits
medium materiality
High
Adjusted EPS growth for Q2-Q4 2026
grow by double digits each quarter
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 capital expenditure
$425 million to $475 million
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
North America Confectionery
Net sales increased 5.3% in Q4 FY25. The Sour Strips acquisition provided a 40 basis point benefit. Volume decreased due to price elasticity, partially offset by strong innovation, holiday programming, and an extra shipping day.
Net price realization: approximately 10 pointsVolume decrease: approximately 5 points
—5.3%——
North America Salty Snacks
Net sales increased 28% in Q4 FY25, with organic constant currency growth of 18.2%. Volume growth was driven by core distribution, velocity, innovation, and variety pack expansion. The LesserEvil acquisition contributed approximately 10 points to segment growth.
Organic constant currency growth: 18.2%Volume growth: approximately 14 pointsNet price realization: 4 points
—28%——
International
Net sales increased 0.4% to $256 million in Q4 FY25. Organic constant currency net sales declined 1.9% as net price realization was more than offset by volume decline due to price elasticity and a 4-point headwind from shipment timing.
Organic constant currency net sales decline: 1.9%Net price realization: approximately 2 pointsVolume decline: 4 points
$256 million0.4%——

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Shaq-A-Licious SLAMSlaunch
Jolly Rancher Heatwavelaunch
SkinnyPop White Cheddar and other dairy itemsupdate

Deals & partnerships

LesserEvil Acquisition of a better-for-you snacking brand.

Completed the acquisition of LesserEvil in November 2025, strengthening the better-for-you snacking platform.

Risks & headwinds

Unprecedented cocoa inflation 2025

significant impact

Mitigation:Agile hedging and sourcing strategies; AAA program savings; strategic pricing.

Broader macroeconomic volatility 2025

impacted business environment

Mitigation:Disciplined execution; strengthened customer relationships; impactful innovation.

Consumer financial pressure 2026

ongoing strain

Mitigation:Planned for appropriately in 2026 outlook; portfolio offers widely accessible price points (three quarters under $4).

Evolving health and wellness trends and GLP-1 adoption 2026

potential demand headwinds

Mitigation:Incorporated prudent assumptions into 2026 outlook; innovation pipeline includes products like SkinnyPop reformulations.

Government policy changes 2026

potential impact

Mitigation:Monitored and planned for appropriately in 2026 outlook.

Commodity and tariff pressure Q1 FY26

residual impact

Mitigation:Significant gross margin recovery projected to begin in Q2 FY26.

What to watch in Q1 FY26

Adjusted gross margin recovery

Q2 FY26
Current 38.3% (Q4 FY25)
Target Significant recovery to begin

Why it matters

Gross margin was a significant headwind in Q4 FY25; its recovery is critical for profitability and EPS growth in 2026.

In the first quarter, we anticipate our overall company adjusted gross margin will continue to face pressure due to consumption of higher-cost commodities and tariff costs, a significant recovery is projected to begin in the second quarter.

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Detailed narrative

FY25 Performance and Strategic Position

Hershey delivered consolidated net sales of approximately $11.7 billion in FY25, an increase of 4.4% year-over-year, with organic constant currency growth of 4.2%. The company successfully navigated unprecedented cocoa inflation and macroeconomic volatility through disciplined execution, strengthened customer relationships, and impactful innovation. This performance built strong momentum for 2026, which is viewed as an inflection point for accelerating sustainable sales growth and restoring margins.

North America Confectionery and Salty Snacks Strength

U.S. Confection retail sales growth was in line with the category in Q4 FY25, driven by innovation and holiday programming. For the full year, Hershey gained market share across instant consumable chocolates, sweets, mints, and seasons. The U.S. Salty Snacking business had an exceptionally strong year, with retail sales growth accelerating to 15.6% in Q4 FY25.

SkinnyPop and Dot's Pretzels remained top performers, contributing to a nearly 40 basis point share gain in 2025 and positioning Hershey as the third largest portfolio in the U.S. Salty Snack business.

International Segment Resilience and Growth

The International segment achieved full-year organic constant currency net sales growth of 2.2% in 2025 despite challenging market conditions. The teams maintained focus on key markets, resulting in market share gains in Mexico, Brazil, and the U.K. Reese's continued its robust international expansion, recording double-digit growth for the year and exceeding $300 million in net sales outside of the U.S.

Efficiency and Transformation Programs

The AAA program has generated over $300 million in net savings over the past two years, surpassing initial plans, and is projected to deliver an incremental $100 million in 2026. These programs, along with agile hedging and sourcing strategies for cocoa, have strengthened the cost structure and enabled investments in talent, technology, and differentiated performance.

An additional $230 million in efficiency and transformation program savings are expected in 2026.

2026 Strategic Priorities and Innovation Pipeline

Hershey's strategic priorities for 2026 include delivering top-line growth at or above market categories, driving sustainable margin and earnings improvement, and evolving the strategy and organization for the future. The innovation pipeline is strong, with launches like Shaq-A-Licious SLAMS and Jolly Rancher Heatwave, and reformulations for SkinnyPop.

Increased brand investments, including double-digit media spend and new campaigns for Reese's and Hershey, are planned to support these initiatives.

Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

The company continues to prioritize reinvestment in the business, including M&A, as demonstrated by the LesserEvil acquisition in November 2025. Capital additions for FY25 totaled approximately $455 million. Given strong cash flow and future performance confidence, Hershey is raising its dividend by 6% and will evaluate opportunistic share repurchases to return excess cash and enhance long-term shareholder value.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.