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    ICE
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Intercontinental Exchange Q4 FY25 earnings call ICE

    Feb 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Q4 FY25 — Record Performance Driven by Diversified Growth and Synergy Outperformance

    Intercontinental Exchange delivered a record-setting Q4 and full-year FY25, showcasing robust performance across its diversified business model. Strong growth in exchange and data services, coupled with significant outperformance in Black Knight synergies, drove record adjusted EPS and net revenues. The company continues to strategically invest in AI and market infrastructure, positioning for sustained growth despite some segment-specific headwinds in mortgage and fixed income transaction volumes.

    Highlights

    5

    • Achieved record adjusted EPS of $6.95 for FY25, marking a 14% increase year-over-year.

    • Reported record full-year net revenues of $9.9 billion, up 6% YoY, with balanced growth across recurring (5%) and transaction (8%) revenues.

    • Exceeded Black Knight expense synergy targets, now expecting $275 million by end of 2028, up from an initial $200 million commitment.

    • Delivered record adjusted operating income of $6 billion for FY25, demonstrating a 9% year-over-year increase.

    • Exchange segment net revenues grew 9% YoY in Q4 FY25 to $1.4 billion, building on prior strong growth, with global oil complex up 12%.

    Concerns

    3

    • Fixed Income Data & Services transaction revenues were offset by lower retail corporate and treasury activity and reduced member interest income following 2025 FOMC rate reductions.

    • Mortgage Technology recurring revenue was impacted by some customer renewals at lower minimums, though largely offset by implementations and product expansions.

    • Mortgage Technology revenue growth for 2026 is expected to be partially offset by client attrition related to M&A activity in 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Exchange segment recurring revenues growth
    mid-single-digit range
    medium materiality
    High
    Fixed Income Data & Services recurring revenue growth
    mid-single-digit range, trending towards the high end
    medium materiality
    High
    Fixed Income Data & Services Data and Network Technology growth
    high single-digit growth
    low materiality
    High
    Mortgage Technology total revenues growth
    low to mid-single-digit range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Mortgage Technology industry loans originated growth (high end)
    low teens
    low materiality
    Low
    Mortgage Technology industry loans originated growth (low end)
    flat to modest growth
    low materiality
    Low
    Mortgage Technology recurring revenues
    continued growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Adjusted operating expenses
    between 4% and 5% between $4.075 billion and $4.140 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted operating expenses growth (excluding items)
    3% to 4% range
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital expenditures
    between $740 million and $790 million
    high materiality
    High
    Black Knight total expense synergies
    $275 million
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Exchange Segment
    Record Q4 net revenues, compounding on 9% growth in 2024 and 14% growth in 2023, demonstrating sustained business momentum. Growth in exchange data and connectivity services was adjusted for a one-time true-up in Q4 FY24.
    Transaction revenues growth: 8% (Q4 FY25)Global oil complex growth: 12% (Q4 FY25)Natural gas and environmental products growth: 10% (Q4 FY25)Natural gas and environmental products growth: 15% (FY25)January monthly volumes growth: 23% YoYJanuary energy ADV: RecordOpen interest growth: 19% (overall)Global energy open interest growth: 7%Interest rate complex open interest growth: 48%Recurring revenue: $391 million (Q4 FY25)Recurring revenue growth: 11% YoY (Q4 FY25)Exchange data and connectivity services expansion: 16% (Q4 FY25)Exchange data and connectivity services expansion (adjusted): 11% (Q4 FY25)NYSE new IPO capital formation: $25 billion (2025)NYSE new operating companies: 71 (2025)NYSE retention rate: >99%
    		$1.4 billion9%——
    Fixed Income Data & Services Segment
    Strong execution with record recurring revenues. Growth in municipal bond revenue was offset by lower retail corporate and treasury activity, and strong CDS clearing results were offset by lower member interest income.
    Transaction revenues: $101 million (Q4 FY25)Recurring revenues: $507 million (Q4 FY25)Recurring revenues growth: 7% YoY (Q4 FY25)Fixed income data and analytics business revenues: $318 million (Q4 FY25)Fixed income data and analytics business revenues growth: 5% (Q4 FY25)ETF AUM tracking ICE indices: $794 billion (end of 2025)ETF AUM tracking ICE indices growth: >20% YoYData and Network Technology revenues growth: 10% (Q4 FY25)
    		$608 million———
    Mortgage Technology Segment
    Strongest quarterly performance since Q3 FY22 on a pro forma basis including Black Knight. Transaction revenue growth was driven by increased Encompass closed loans and MERS registrations.
    Recurring revenues: $391 million (Q4 FY25)Transaction revenues: $141 million (Q4 FY25)Transaction revenues growth: 20% YoY (Q4 FY25)New Encompass logos signed: 32 (Q4 FY25)New Encompass deals done: 90 (FY25)New MSP wins: 2 (Q4 FY25)
    		$532 million5%——

    Operational metrics

    32
    Adjusted earnings per share
    $6.9514% increase year-over-year
    FY25

    Record performance for the company.

    Net revenues
    $9.9 billionup 6% year-over-year
    FY25

    Record full-year net revenues with balanced growth across the platform.

    Adjusted operating expenses
    $3.9 billion
    FY25

    Reflects commitment to cost discipline while investing strategically.

    Black Knight annualized expense synergies
    $230 millionexceeding the updated $200 million target
    end of FY25

    Exited the year at this rate, outperforming the updated target.

    Adjusted operating income
    $6 billionup 9% year-over-year
    FY25

    Record adjusted operating income demonstrating quality and scalability.

    Stock repurchases
    $1.3 billion
    FY25

    Part of strategic capital allocation to enhance shareholder value.

    Dividend increase
    6%
    FY25

    Increased dividend as part of capital allocation strategy.

    Leverage ratio
    3xfrom 3.3x at year-end 2024
    end of FY25

    Reduced leverage ratio while funding strategic investments.

    Adjusted earnings per share
    $1.71up 13% versus the prior year
    Q4 FY25

    Strong fourth quarter performance providing momentum into 2026.

    Net revenues
    $2.5 billionincreased 7% year-over-year
    Q4 FY25

    Fourth quarter net revenues with balanced growth.

    Adjusted operating expenses
    $1.010 billion
    Q4 FY25

    Came at the midpoint of guidance range, reflecting continued cost discipline.

    Japan Korean Marker (JKM) volumes growth
    36%
    FY25

    Part of global natural gas markets advancement.

    Rates complex open interest growth
    54%
    end of FY25

    Reflects how customers use a single technology platform to align exposures across assets.

    Capital expenditures for real estate
    $250 million
    2026

    Part of strategic growth-enabling investments.

    Incremental mortgage transaction revenue (normalized market)
    $0.5 billion
    normalized market

    Potential incremental revenue in a normalized mortgage market environment (7-10 million loans industry-wide).

    Accelerated stock-based compensation
    $25 million
    2026

    Related to adjustments to the compensation plan, resulting in less incremental expense in 2027 and 2028.

    Depreciation from euro and pound
    $15 million to $20 million
    2026

    Expected to add to adjusted operating expenses, more than offset by incremental revenue.

    Revenue synergies from Black Knight
    $100 millionnearly doubled from $55 million at year-end 2024
    end of FY25

    Demonstrates further runway for revenue synergy realization.

    Energy average daily volume growth
    27%year-over-year
    January 2026

    Trading in energy achieved record average daily volume.

    Brent volumes growth
    25%year-over-year
    YTD 2026

    Cornerstone of global oil complex, showing strong start to the year.

    Crude volumes growth
    15%year-over-year
    YTD 2026

    Overall crude business showing strong start to the year.

    Brent open interest growth
    35%
    YTD 2026

    Unbelievable start to the year for Brent open interest.

    Dubai contract volumes growth
    20%
    YTD 2026

    Well-established Dubai contract performing extraordinarily well.

    TTF ADV growth
    30%
    December Q4 FY25

    Strongest month of the quarter for TTF.

    TTF open interest growth
    18%
    December Q4 FY25

    Strongest month of the quarter for TTF.

    TTF open interest growth
    16%year-over-year
    January 2026

    Elevated January participation.

    TTF average daily volumes growth
    doubledversus 2024
    January 2026

    Strong start to the year for TTF.

    Loans in the money to refi
    4 million
    current

    Rates today are 75 basis points lower than the customer's locked rate.

    Loans in the money to refi (with 25 bps rate move)
    5.5 million
    future

    Potential if rates move another 25 basis points.

    Loans in the money to refi (with 50 bps rate move)
    7.5 million to 8 million
    future

    Potential if rates move another 50 basis points.

    Mortgage industry normalized loans
    7 million to 10 million
    normalized environment

    10 million has been the average over the last 30 years, 7-8 million is the median.

    Encompass deals done
    90
    FY25

    Great sign and testament to the quality of technology and innovation.

    Industry KPIs

    1
    MetricValueDetails
    AUM$794 billionUSD

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Tokenized securities platform for NYSElaunch
    New clearing service for U.S. cash treasurieslaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    RedditData partnership

    Offering real-time historical signals and sentiment scores integrated with ICE data sets to enhance market insights and risk management capabilities, uncovering new investment opportunities for clients.

    BNY and CitiCollaboration on tokenized collateral

    To accept tokenized collateral, supporting the evolution of settlement processes and further improving capital efficiencies.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Lower retail corporate and treasury activityQ4 FY25

    Offset growth in municipal bond revenue within ICE Bonds in Q4 FY25.

    Mitigation: Strong CDS clearing results partially offset the impact.

    Lower member interest incomeQ4 FY25

    Offset strong CDS clearing results in Q4 FY25.

    Mitigation: Resulted from FOMC's rate reductions in 2025.

    Mortgage Technology customer renewals at lower minimumsQ4 FY25 and FY26

    Impacted recurring revenues in Q4 FY25 and expected to continue into 2026.

    Mitigation: Paired with higher per transaction pricing; largely offset by strong implementations and product expansions. 2020 vintage contracts fully worked through, 2021 vintage largely complete in 2026.

    Client attrition in Mortgage TechnologyFY26

    Partially offset positive factors for 2026 revenue growth.

    Mitigation: Related to certain M&A activity in 2025; no specific mitigation beyond general growth drivers mentioned.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Can you update on the health of the mortgage industry beyond 2026, considering the refi rebound, and discuss opportunities for modernizing your mortgage technology stack with blockchain or AI tools?

    The mortgage market is improving, with 4 million loans currently 'in the money' for refi, potentially rising to 7.5-8 million with further rate cuts. Affordability is better than in four years. ICE is accelerating AI-enabled solutions for Encompass and MSP, including data capture, underwriting automation, consumer chatbots for HELOC/refi, and compliance chatbots, to drive efficiencies.

    “there's approximately 4 million loans that are in the money to refi, which means that the rates that they were set at the time, the rates today are 75 basis points lower than where the customer's rate is locked out. And if you get just another 25 basis point move from where we are now, that number goes up to 5.5 million. And if you get a 50 basis point move, it goes up to 7.5 million to 8 million loans in the money.”

    asked by Craig Siegenthaler · answered by Benjamin Jackson

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Black Knight Integration & Synergy Outperformance

    Intercontinental Exchange significantly exceeded its updated expense synergy target for the Black Knight acquisition, now projecting $275 million in total synergies by the end of 2028. This represents a $75 million increase, or nearly 40% above the initial commitment made in 2022. This outperformance underscores ICE's strong integration capabilities and its proven ability to identify and realize incremental value creation opportunities from strategic acquisitions.

    02

    Energy Market Leadership & Geopolitical Impact

    ICE's energy complex demonstrated robust performance, with global oil, natural gas, and environmental products showing strong growth and record volumes. This strength is attributed to geopolitical flashpoints, supply chain evolution, and the ongoing energy transition, which drive demand for risk management tools. The company's diverse benchmarks, including Brent, WTI, TTF, and JKM, provide critical liquidity and price transparency in a volatile global energy landscape.

    03

    Strategic AI & Technology Investments

    ICE is making strategic investments in AI infrastructure, including GPUs, storage, and network equipment, to handle data-intensive workloads and drive future productivity. The ICE Aurora platform is central to this strategy, integrating high-quality proprietary data with AI-assisted tools across Fixed Income Data & Services and Mortgage Technology. These investments aim to automate workflows, enhance data validation, and provide secure, entitlement-based access to critical market insights.

    04

    Mortgage Market Recovery & Workflow Automation

    The mortgage market is showing signs of improvement, with approximately 4 million loans currently 'in the money' for refinancing, a number that could rise to 7.5-8 million with further rate cuts. Affordability metrics are also at their best in four years. ICE is leveraging AI-enabled agents within its Encompass and MSP platforms to automate complex, regulated workflows, aiming to reduce costs, improve loan quality, and expand team capacity for clients, thereby enhancing efficiency across the mortgage lifecycle.

    05

    Tokenization and Market Infrastructure Evolution

    ICE is actively exploring tokenization as a potential evolution of existing market infrastructure, aiming to improve capital efficiencies, broaden access, and advance settlement processes. The company announced the development of a tokenized securities platform for NYSE and plans to seek SEC regulatory approval under existing federal law. This initiative, which includes collaborations with BNY and Citi to accept tokenized collateral, is designed to integrate new technologies while preserving market stability and regulatory safeguards.

    06

    Treasury Clearing Service Approval

    ICE received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a new clearing service for U.S. cash treasuries. This approval comes almost a year ahead of the January 2027 treasury clearing mandate, positioning ICE to meet evolving market needs. This new service is expected to be accretive to ICE's existing fixed income clearing services and will provide additional choice to clients in the fixed income market.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.