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    JPM
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    JPMORGAN CHASE & CO JPM

    Oct 14, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q3 FY25 — Strong Performance Across Businesses, Robust Outlook

    JPMorgan Chase delivered strong Q3 FY25 results, with robust revenue growth across its CIB, AWM, and CCB segments, driven by active markets and strong client engagement. While credit performance remains largely in line with expectations, the firm acknowledges macroeconomic uncertainties and potential labor market deterioration. Management provided an initial 2026 NII outlook and highlighted ongoing expense discipline, despite anticipating higher labor inflation and continued investments.

    Highlights

    5

    • Net income of $14.4 billion and EPS of $5.07 with an ROTCE of 20%.

    • Revenue up 9% year-on-year to $47.1 billion, driven by higher markets, asset management, investment banking, and payments fees.

    • CIB revenue up 17% year-on-year to $19.9 billion, with IB fees up 16% and Markets up 21% (fixed income) and 33% (equities).

    • AWM record revenue of $6.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year, with long-term net inflows of $72 billion.

    • CCB maintained #1 retail deposit share for the fifth consecutive year and achieved the best year ever for Sapphire new account acquisitions.

    Concerns

    5

    • Wholesale charge-offs slightly elevated due to fraud in secured lending facilities, including $170 million from Tricolor.

    • NII growth offset by the impact of lower rates.

    • CET1 ratio down 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 14.8% due to higher RWA from wholesale lending and markets activities.

    • Macroeconomic uncertainty and potential for labor market deterioration.

    • 2026 consensus expense estimates of $100 billion look "a little bit low".

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    NII ex Markets
    ~$23.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Total NII
    ~$25 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted Expense
    ~$24.5 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Adjusted Expense
    ~$95.9 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Card Net Charge-Off Rate
    ~3.3%
    medium materiality
    High
    NII ex Markets
    ~$95 billion
    high materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    CCB (Consumer & Community Banking)
    Revenue predominantly driven by higher NII on higher revolving balances. Consumers and small businesses remain resilient; credit metrics stable and slightly better than expected.
    Retail deposit share: #1 (5th consecutive year)Net new checking accounts: 400,000+Sapphire new account acquisitions: best year ever
    		$19.5 billion9%—$5 billion (net income)
    CIB (Corporate & Investment Bank)
    Driven by higher revenues across markets, payments, investment banking, and security services. IB strength in equity underwriting; robust pipeline and upbeat outlook. Strong performance in rates, credit, securitized products, and prime in Markets.
    IB fees growth: 16% YoYMarkets revenue growth (fixed income): 21% YoYMarkets revenue growth (equities): 33% YoY
    		$19.9 billion17%—$6.9 billion (net income)
    AWM (Asset & Wealth Management)
    Record revenue predominantly driven by growth in management fees due to strong net inflows and higher average market levels, as well as higher brokerage activity. Inflows led by fixed income and equities.
    Long-term net inflows: $72 billionAUM: $4.6 trillion, up 18% YoYClient assets: $6.8 trillion, up 20% YoY
    		$6.1 billion12%—$1.7 billion (net income), 36% (pretax margin)
    Corporate
    No specific growth or margin details provided.
    		$1.7 billion——$825 million (net income)

    Operational metrics

    19
    Net Income
    $14.4 billion
    Q3 FY25
    EPS
    $5.07
    Q3 FY25
    Revenue Growth
    9%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Expense Growth
    8%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Credit Costs
    $3.4 billion
    Q3 FY25
    Net Reserve Build
    $810 million
    Q3 FY25
    Wholesale Charge-offs (Tricolor)
    $170 million
    Q3 FY25

    Contributing to wholesale charge-offs due to fraud in secured lending facilities.

    Net New Checking Accounts
    400,000+
    Q3 FY25
    Sapphire New Account Acquisitions
    best year ever
    FY25 YTD
    IB Fees Growth
    16%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Fixed Income Markets Revenue Growth
    21%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Equities Markets Revenue Growth
    33%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    AWM Pretax Margin
    36%
    Q3 FY25
    Long-term Net Inflows
    $72 billion
    Q3 FY25
    AUM Growth
    18%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Client Assets Growth
    20%YoY
    Q3 FY25
    Medical Expense Growth
    10%
    FY26

    Expected to be up 10% next year.

    Mortgage Cost Reduction Potential
    30-40
    future

    Potential reduction in mortgage costs by reducing excessive post-GFC regulations.

    Lending Aspiration in Critical Industries
    $0.5 trillionincremental
    future

    Aspiration to add another $0.5 trillion of lending in critical industries, consuming excess capital.

    Industry KPIs

    11
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans—
    Deposits—
    Rotce ROE20%%
    Cet1 ratio14.8%%
    Capital returns—
    Fee income lines—
    Allowance reserves$810 millionUSD
    Net interest income$23.5 billion (Q4 ex Markets), $25 billion (Q4 total)USD
    Net charge offs npls$2.6 billionUSD
    Total operating expenses$24.3 billion (Q3), $95.9 billion (FY25 implied)USD
    Provision for credit losses$3.4 billionUSD

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Elevated Wholesale charge-offs due to fraud in secured lending facilitiesQ3 FY25

    $170 million from Tricolor in Q3 FY25

    Mitigation: Continuous review of processes, procedures, and underwriting.

    Impact of lower rates on NIIQ3 FY25 and ongoing

    Offset NII driven by balance sheet growth and mix in Q3 FY25

    Mitigation: Focus on balance sheet growth and mix, and managing deposit costs.

    Potential softening labor market and macroeconomic uncertaintyComing months/ahead

    Discussed, not quantified

    Mitigation: Close monitoring of credit metrics; acknowledging risks and preparing for potential deterioration.

    Higher RWA from wholesale lending and markets activitiesQ3 FY25

    CET1 ratio down 30 bps QoQ to 14.8%

    Mitigation: Generating organic capital, deploying financial resources into the real economy.

    Higher than expected credit losses in certain NBFI categories during a downturnFuture downturn

    Discussed, not quantified

    Mitigation: Careful underwriting, continuous review of processes, and monitoring of the broader NBFI market.

    Basel III Endgame / G-SIB surcharge finalization uncertaintyOngoing regulatory process

    Discussed, not quantified

    Mitigation: Engagement with regulators to ensure rules are reasonable and aligned with risk.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    2026 NII ex Markets Outlook

    Q4 FY25 earnings
    CurrentPreliminary central case of ~$95 billion
    TargetFormal outlook for 2026 NII

    Why it matters

    NII is a primary driver of bank profitability, and a formal outlook will provide more certainty for investor models.

    We will formally provide the 2026 outlook for NII, expense and card NCO rate at the fourth quarter earnings, and we'll have another opportunity to discuss the outlook at our recently announced company update in February.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Are the previously expected retail deposit growth rates of 3% (Q4 FY25) and 6% (FY26) still valid, given flat deposits this quarter, and what are the underlying assumptions for the 2026 NII outlook?

    The deposit growth inflection point has been slightly pushed out due to lower personal savings rates, robust consumer spending, lower income, strong equity market performance driving investment flows, and slightly higher rates. However, the firm remains confident in the long-term trajectory, supported by strong net new checking account acquisitions (over 400,000 this quarter). The 2026 NII outlook assumes current forward curves, including rate cuts, and growth dynamics like card revolve and wholesale loan growth.

    “At a high level, we remain kind of quite confident about the overall long-term trajectory here and optimistic but the macro environment shift has just slightly pushed out some of the growth inflection dynamics.”

    asked by John McDonald · answered by Jeremy Barnum

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY25 Financial Highlights

    Net income reached $14.4 billion, with EPS of $5.07 and an ROTCE of 20%. Revenue increased 9% year-on-year to $47.1 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in markets, asset management, investment banking, and payments. Expenses rose 8% year-on-year to $24.3 billion, attributed to volume and revenue-related factors.

    02

    Credit Performance and Outlook

    Credit costs totaled $3.4 billion, comprising $2.6 billion in net charge-offs and an $810 million net reserve build. While Wholesale charge-offs were slightly elevated due to fraud in secured lending facilities (including $170 million from Tricolor), overall credit performance in both Wholesale and Consumer segments remains in line with expectations, with consumer resilience noted. The 2025 card net charge-off rate is now expected to be approximately 3.3%.

    03

    Capital Position

    The CET1 ratio stood at 14.8%, a 30 basis point decrease from the prior quarter, mainly due to increased Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) from wholesale lending and markets activities. Management emphasized generating organic capital and deploying financial resources into the real economy, including an aspiration to add another $0.5 trillion of lending in critical industries.

    04

    Business Segment Performance

    CCB reported $5 billion net income, with revenue up 9% YoY, driven by higher NII from revolving balances, and maintained its #1 retail deposit share. CIB net income was $6.9 billion, with revenue up 17% YoY, fueled by a 16% increase in IB fees and strong markets performance (fixed income up 21%, equities up 33%). AWM achieved record revenue of $6.1 billion, up 12% YoY, with $72 billion in long-term net inflows and AUM of $4.6 trillion.

    05

    2026 NII and Expense Outlook

    The firm provided a preliminary central case for 2026 NII ex Markets of approximately $95 billion, based on current forward curves and expected growth dynamics. While a formal 2026 expense outlook is pending the budget cycle, management noted that consensus estimates of $100 billion appear "a little bit low" given anticipated labor inflation (e.g., medical expenses up 10% next year) and continued investments.

    06

    NBFI Lending and Risk Management

    Management addressed concerns regarding lending to Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs), clarifying that most such lending is highly secured or structured. While acknowledging potential for higher credit losses in a downturn, particularly in certain NBFI categories due to unknown underwriting standards, the firm continuously reviews its processes and underwriting standards, learning from incidents like the Tricolor charge-off.

    07

    Regulatory Environment and Mortgage Market

    The administration is seen as transitioning quickly from comments to actions, with a bias for getting things done comprehensively. Management suggested that reducing excessive post-GFC regulations could lower mortgage costs by 30-40 basis points without increasing risk. They also expressed encouragement regarding the direction of travel for Basel III Endgame, emphasizing doing the math right for individual products and business areas.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.