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Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Consumer Staples· Apr 23, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Q1 FY26 — Strong Refreshment Beverages and Transformation Progress

Keurig Dr Pepper delivered Q1 FY26 results slightly ahead of expectations, driven by robust performance in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, while U.S. Coffee faced anticipated temporary headwinds. The company successfully closed the JDE Peet's acquisition and is making steady progress on its transformation initiatives, targeting operational readiness for separation into two independent companies by the end of 2026, with official separation likely in early 2027.

Highlights

5
  • Net sales grew 8% with positive contributions from both net price realization and volume mix.

  • U.S. Refreshment Beverages net sales grew 11.9% and operating income increased 9.8%.

  • International net sales grew at a high single-digit rate of 8.5% on a constant currency basis.

  • The energy portfolio expanded market share, with Bloom and GHOST being two of the top three fastest-growing major trademarks.

  • Dr Pepper's three primary lines (regular, diet, zero sugar) collectively gained share during the quarter.

Concerns

3
  • EPS declined 7.1% to $0.39, reflecting the phasing of cost and tariff impacts and lapping a below-the-line gain.

  • U.S. Coffee net sales declined 2.3% and operating income declined 21.3% due to peak cost pressures (green coffee, tariffs) and trade inventory adjustments.

  • International segment operating income declined 15.1% on a constant currency basis due to cost pressures and increased marketing spending.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Total Company Net Sales
$25.9 billion to $26.4 billion
high materiality
High
Legacy KDP Constant Currency Net Sales Growth
4% to 6%
high materiality
High
JDE Peet's Net Sales Contribution
$8.5 billion to $8.7 billion
high materiality
High
Total Company Constant Currency EPS Growth
low double-digit growth
high materiality
High
JDE Peet's EPS Contribution
6 to 7 percentage points
high materiality
High
Legacy KDP EPS Growth
4% to 6%
high materiality
High
FX Impact on Total Company Net Sales and EPS Growth
approximately 1 percentage point tailwind
medium materiality
Medium
Interest Expense
approximately $1.13 billion to $1.16 billion
medium materiality
High
Effective Tax Rate
approximately 22%
medium materiality
High
Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
approximately 1.37 billion
medium materiality
High
Pretax Coffee JV Costs
approximately $190 million
medium materiality
High
Convertible Preferred Costs
greater of roughly $53 million quarterly preferred dividend or 8% proportionate share of earnings
medium materiality
High
Total Company EPS Growth Phasing
high single-digit EPS growth in Q2, with further acceleration in the back half
high materiality
High
Legacy KDP Free Cash Flow
approximately $2 billion
high materiality
High
Aggregate Company Free Cash Flow
approximately $2.5 billion
high materiality
High
Net Leverage
approximately 4.5x
high materiality
High
Deleveraging Rate
about a half a turn per year
medium materiality
High
Beverage Co. Leverage Target at Separation
3.5 to 4x
high materiality
High
Global Coffee Co. Leverage Target at Separation
3.75 to 4.25x
high materiality
High
Operational Readiness to Separate
by the end of 2026
high materiality
High
Official Separation Timing
likely to occur in early 2027
high materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
U.S. Refreshment Beverages
Delivered robust growth in both net sales and operating income, driven by strong CSD performance, energy drink momentum, and sports hydration. Q1 benefited from some incremental GHOST distribution year-over-year.
Volume/mix contribution: 7.2 pointsNet price realization contribution: 4.7 pointsCSD retail sales dollars growth: mid-single-digit rateDr Pepper's 3 primary lines (regular, diet, zero sugar) collectively gained shareCanada Dry's Q1 share gainsZero sugar CSD offerings growth: double-digit rateEnergy market share: expandedBloom and GHOST: 2 of the top 3 fastest-growing major trademarks in energyElectrolit share: gained significant share
double-digit rate11.9%—9.8%
U.S. Coffee
Performance was largely as anticipated, impacted by peak cost pressures from green coffee and tariffs, as well as trade inventory adjustments. Profitability was also affected by increased marketing spending. Expects progressive improvement in H2.
Volume mix decline: 8.2 percentage pointsPod shipments decline: 7%Brewer shipments decline: high single-digit rateNet price realization contribution: 5.9 pointsKeurig compatible subsegment retail sales growth: nearly 4% rateLavazza K-Cup sales growth: more than 50%
declined-2.3%—-21.3%
International
Net sales grew due to pricing actions in response to cost pressures in Mexico and Canada. Operating income declined due to cost pressures, including the Mexico beverage tax, and increased marketing spending. Profit trends expected to improve as the year progresses.
Net price realization contribution: 9.2 percentage pointsVolume/mix decline: 0.7 percentage points
high single-digit rate8.5% constant currency—-15.1% constant currency

KDP operating KPIs by quarter

KDP operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Dec 2024 Q4 FY24 Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Employees
29K This outcome was a direct output of the talent, dedication and hard work of our 29,000 colleagues across KDP. Source: earnings call transcript
50K+ I want to recognize and thank our more than 50,000 colleagues from around the world for their contributions to our inaugural quarter as a newly combined organization. Source: earnings call transcript
—

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Canada Dry Fruit Splash strawberrylaunch
Dr Pepper Creamy Coconutlaunch
Keurig Coffee Collectivelaunch
Keurig Alta systemlaunch

Deals & partnerships

JDE Peet's acquisition

Acquisition closed on April 1, 2026. Financed with a $4.5 billion beverage company convertible preferred equity investment, a $4 billion coffee company pod manufacturing JV minority investment, approximately $6 billion in newly issued long-term senior debt, and additional term loan borrowings.

Nestlé USA partnership

Renewal and expansion of the K-Cup agreement with Nestlé USA, deepening and extending a highly successful relationship.

Suntory partnership

Evolved partnership in Europe to a more collaborative concentrate supply model.

Risks & headwinds

Phasing of cost and tariff impacts Q1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

Contributed to 7.1% EPS decline in Q1

Mitigation:Expected to ease slightly in Q2 and moderate more meaningfully in the back half, providing visibility to improved trends.

Lapping a below-the-line gain Q1 2026

Contributed to 7.1% EPS decline in Q1, specifically a $0.02 gain in prior year

Peak year-over-year cost pressures in U.S. Coffee Q1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

Constrained Q1 segment profitability, contributing to 21.3% operating income decline

Mitigation:Expected to ease slightly in Q2 and moderate more meaningfully in the back half, with current coffee prices potentially being a tailwind for 2027.

Higher cost green coffee hedges and tariffs Q1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

Flowed through U.S. Coffee results in Q1, contributing to 21.3% operating income decline

Mitigation:Green coffee costs lag market prices by 6-9 months due to hedging; expected to become more favorable in H2.

Trade inventory adjustments Q1 2026, normalizing in H2

Pressured pod shipments, which declined 7% in U.S. Coffee

Mitigation:Expected to normalize in the second half of the year.

Mexico beverage tax Q1 2026

Contributed to modest volume/mix decline and 15.1% operating income decline in International segment

Mitigation:Profit trends expected to improve as 2026 progresses with execution of commercial plans.

Commodity cost timing for JDE Peet's H1 2026

Profit will be more constrained in the inflationary first half

Mitigation:Good visibility to accelerating trends in H2 as green coffee becomes more favorable.

Commodity price volatility from Middle East conflicts Potential for 2027 if high prices sustain

Impacts inputs like aluminum, resins, diesel, freight costs

Mitigation:Largely hedged for 2026; mitigating action plans would be developed for longer term if prices sustain.

Q&A highlights

What's driving U.S. Refreshment momentum and its sustainability, including SNAP impact? How will Coffee profitability evolve quarterly given cost pressures and pricing actions?

U.S. Refreshment Beverages saw double-digit growth driven by innovation (Canada Dry Fruit Splash, Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut), DSD execution, and increased marketing, with strong performance expected to continue, though Q1 benefited from incremental GHOST distribution. SNAP impacts are manageable. U.S. Coffee expects a modest FY26 profit decline, with Q1 being the most significant due to peak costs and trade inventory adjustments. Profitability will improve in H2 as green coffee costs ease (6-9 month lag) and innovation kicks in, potentially creating a tailwind for 2027.

“our focus in 2026 in U.S. Coffee is to navigate these near-term headwinds while really positioning our business for long-term success.”

asked by Dara Mohsenian · answered by Timothy Cofer

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Transformation and Separation Progress

Keurig Dr Pepper closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, integrating over 20,000 new colleagues and confirming the healthy foundation, strong brands, and capabilities of the acquired business. The company is advancing its plans to separate into two advantaged pure-play public companies: Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co.

Operational readiness for separation is targeted by the end of 2026, with the official separation likely in early 2027, subject to market conditions. This strategic move aims to create value through increased focus and tailored strategies for each entity.

Future Vision for Beverage Co.

Beverage Co. is envisioned as a growth-oriented challenger in the $300 billion North American refreshment beverages market. It will leverage iconic brands, differentiated go-to-market capabilities, and a proven track record of white space expansion. As an independent company, Beverage Co. expects to have additional strategic optionality, including optimizing its route-to-market model and proactively pursuing earlier-stage partnerships, new geographies, and creative structures to future-proof its portfolio and drive consistent top-tier results.

Future Vision for Global Coffee Co.

Global Coffee Co. is set to become a scaled leader in the $400 billion global coffee market. It will benefit from an enhanced set of capabilities, a portfolio of leading global and regional brands, deep expertise in sourcing, blending, and appliances, and strong synergy potential.

Rafa Oliveira, CEO of JDE Peet's, has been selected to lead the coffee operating unit and will become the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. upon separation, bringing significant CPG experience and a brand-led strategy.

U.S. Refreshment Beverages Momentum

The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment delivered robust double-digit growth in Q1, driven by strong CSD performance, including Dr Pepper's core lines gaining share and Canada Dry's Q1 share gains from the Fruit Splash launch. The energy portfolio, featuring Bloom and GHOST, continued to expand market share, with both brands among the fastest-growing.

The sports hydration partnership with Electrolit also showed healthy results, gaining significant share through distribution expansion and strong velocities. The segment expects continued strong performance for the remainder of the year, supported by innovation and increased marketing.

U.S. Coffee Segment Headwinds and Investments

U.S. Coffee performance in Q1 was largely as anticipated, with net sales and operating income declines due to peak year-over-year cost pressures from higher green coffee hedges and tariffs, as well as trade inventory adjustments impacting pod shipments. Despite these near-term headwinds, the company is thoughtfully investing in long-term growth initiatives, such as the Keurig Coffee Collective innovation, the renewal and expansion of the K-Cup agreement with Nestlé USA, and preparing for the direct-to-consumer launch of the disruptive Keurig Alta system later this year.

Profitability is expected to improve in the back half as costs ease and short-term dynamics normalize.

International Segment Performance and Strategy

The International segment achieved high single-digit net sales growth on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by net price realization in response to cost pressures in Mexico and Canada. However, operating income declined due to these cost pressures, including the Mexico beverage tax, and increased marketing spending.

The company anticipates improved profitability trends as inflationary pressures ease and commercial plans, including summertime activations, are executed. KDP also evolved its Suntory partnership in Europe to a capital-light concentrate supply model, providing access to incremental consumers.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.