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    KDP
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    Keurig Dr Pepper Q1 FY26 earnings call KDP

    Apr 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Q1 FY26 — Strong Refreshment Beverages and Transformation Progress

    Keurig Dr Pepper delivered Q1 FY26 results slightly ahead of expectations, driven by robust performance in U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International, while U.S. Coffee faced anticipated temporary headwinds. The company successfully closed the JDE Peet's acquisition and is making steady progress on its transformation initiatives, targeting operational readiness for separation into two independent companies by the end of 2026, with official separation likely in early 2027.

    Highlights

    5
    • Net sales grew 8% with positive contributions from both net price realization and volume mix.

    • U.S. Refreshment Beverages net sales grew 11.9% and operating income increased 9.8%.

    • International net sales grew at a high single-digit rate of 8.5% on a constant currency basis.

    • The energy portfolio expanded market share, with Bloom and GHOST being two of the top three fastest-growing major trademarks.

    • Dr Pepper's three primary lines (regular, diet, zero sugar) collectively gained share during the quarter.

    Concerns

    3
    • EPS declined 7.1% to $0.39, reflecting the phasing of cost and tariff impacts and lapping a below-the-line gain.

    • U.S. Coffee net sales declined 2.3% and operating income declined 21.3% due to peak cost pressures (green coffee, tariffs) and trade inventory adjustments.

    • International segment operating income declined 15.1% on a constant currency basis due to cost pressures and increased marketing spending.

    Guidance & targets

    21
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total Company Net Sales
    $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Legacy KDP Constant Currency Net Sales Growth
    4% to 6%
    high materiality
    High
    JDE Peet's Net Sales Contribution
    $8.5 billion to $8.7 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Total Company Constant Currency EPS Growth
    low double-digit growth
    high materiality
    High
    JDE Peet's EPS Contribution
    6 to 7 percentage points
    high materiality
    High
    Legacy KDP EPS Growth
    4% to 6%
    high materiality
    High
    FX Impact on Total Company Net Sales and EPS Growth
    approximately 1 percentage point tailwind
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Interest Expense
    approximately $1.13 billion to $1.16 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Effective Tax Rate
    approximately 22%
    medium materiality
    High
    Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
    approximately 1.37 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Pretax Coffee JV Costs
    approximately $190 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Convertible Preferred Costs
    greater of roughly $53 million quarterly preferred dividend or 8% proportionate share of earnings
    medium materiality
    High
    Total Company EPS Growth Phasing
    high single-digit EPS growth in Q2, with further acceleration in the back half
    high materiality
    High
    Legacy KDP Free Cash Flow
    approximately $2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Aggregate Company Free Cash Flow
    approximately $2.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Net Leverage
    approximately 4.5x
    high materiality
    High
    Deleveraging Rate
    about a half a turn per year
    medium materiality
    High
    Beverage Co. Leverage Target at Separation
    3.5 to 4x
    high materiality
    High
    Global Coffee Co. Leverage Target at Separation
    3.75 to 4.25x
    high materiality
    High
    Operational Readiness to Separate
    by the end of 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Official Separation Timing
    likely to occur in early 2027
    high materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    U.S. Refreshment Beverages
    Delivered robust growth in both net sales and operating income, driven by strong CSD performance, energy drink momentum, and sports hydration. Q1 benefited from some incremental GHOST distribution year-over-year.
    Volume/mix contribution: 7.2 pointsNet price realization contribution: 4.7 pointsCSD retail sales dollars growth: mid-single-digit rateDr Pepper's 3 primary lines (regular, diet, zero sugar) collectively gained shareCanada Dry's Q1 share gainsZero sugar CSD offerings growth: double-digit rateEnergy market share: expandedBloom and GHOST: 2 of the top 3 fastest-growing major trademarks in energyElectrolit share: gained significant share
    double-digit rate11.9%9.8%
    U.S. Coffee
    Performance was largely as anticipated, impacted by peak cost pressures from green coffee and tariffs, as well as trade inventory adjustments. Profitability was also affected by increased marketing spending. Expects progressive improvement in H2.
    Volume mix decline: 8.2 percentage pointsPod shipments decline: 7%Brewer shipments decline: high single-digit rateNet price realization contribution: 5.9 pointsKeurig compatible subsegment retail sales growth: nearly 4% rateLavazza K-Cup sales growth: more than 50%
    declined-2.3%-21.3%
    International
    Net sales grew due to pricing actions in response to cost pressures in Mexico and Canada. Operating income declined due to cost pressures, including the Mexico beverage tax, and increased marketing spending. Profit trends expected to improve as the year progresses.
    Net price realization contribution: 9.2 percentage pointsVolume/mix decline: 0.7 percentage points
    high single-digit rate8.5% constant currency-15.1% constant currency

    Operational metrics

    9
    Net sales growth
    8.1%
    Q1 FY26

    Total company net sales growth.

    Gross margin contraction
    220YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Represented the most significant year-over-year gross margin decline for legacy KDP, with trends expected to improve in the back half.

    SG&A as percent of sales
    flat
    Q1 FY26

    Transportation and warehousing efficiencies offset increased marketing spending.

    Operating income decline
    1.9%
    Q1 FY26

    Total company operating income decline.

    JDE Peet's synergies
    $400 million
    Total

    Confirmed synergies from combining legacy Keurig Green Mountain with JDE Peet's.

    Energy category market size
    $29 billion
    Current

    Cited as a large and growing market.

    Energy category growth rate
    mid-teens
    Current

    Cited as a strong growth rate for the category.

    Energy portfolio size
    over $1 billion
    Current

    KDP's energy portfolio, including GHOST, C4, Bloom, and Black Rifle.

    C4 retail sales growth
    more than doubled
    Since 2023

    Reflects performance since KDP took distribution.

    Industry KPIs

    12
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand sharegained share
    EPS organic EPS growth$0.39USD
    Gross operating margin-220bps
    Organic revenue growth8%%
    Geographic regional mix11.9%%
    Unit case volume growth-7%%
    Aluminum packaging cost impactlargely hedged
    Freight logistics cost pressureexposure
    Energy functional category health$29 billionUSD
    Pack architecture pricing actionsrefined promotional strategies
    Bottler franchise system economicsevolved
    Cold drink equipment distribution reachmeaningful distribution gains

    Product announcements

    4
    ProductTypeDetails
    Canada Dry Fruit Splash strawberrylaunch
    Dr Pepper Creamy Coconutlaunch
    Keurig Coffee Collectivelaunch
    Keurig Alta systemlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    JDE Peet'sacquisition

    Acquisition closed on April 1, 2026. Financed with a $4.5 billion beverage company convertible preferred equity investment, a $4 billion coffee company pod manufacturing JV minority investment, approximately $6 billion in newly issued long-term senior debt, and additional term loan borrowings.

    Nestlé USApartnership

    Renewal and expansion of the K-Cup agreement with Nestlé USA, deepening and extending a highly successful relationship.

    Suntorypartnership

    Evolved partnership in Europe to a more collaborative concentrate supply model.

    Risks & headwinds

    8
    Phasing of cost and tariff impactsQ1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

    Contributed to 7.1% EPS decline in Q1

    Mitigation: Expected to ease slightly in Q2 and moderate more meaningfully in the back half, providing visibility to improved trends.

    Lapping a below-the-line gainQ1 2026

    Contributed to 7.1% EPS decline in Q1, specifically a $0.02 gain in prior year

    Peak year-over-year cost pressures in U.S. CoffeeQ1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

    Constrained Q1 segment profitability, contributing to 21.3% operating income decline

    Mitigation: Expected to ease slightly in Q2 and moderate more meaningfully in the back half, with current coffee prices potentially being a tailwind for 2027.

    Higher cost green coffee hedges and tariffsQ1 2026, easing in Q2 and moderating in H2

    Flowed through U.S. Coffee results in Q1, contributing to 21.3% operating income decline

    Mitigation: Green coffee costs lag market prices by 6-9 months due to hedging; expected to become more favorable in H2.

    Trade inventory adjustmentsQ1 2026, normalizing in H2

    Pressured pod shipments, which declined 7% in U.S. Coffee

    Mitigation: Expected to normalize in the second half of the year.

    Mexico beverage taxQ1 2026

    Contributed to modest volume/mix decline and 15.1% operating income decline in International segment

    Mitigation: Profit trends expected to improve as 2026 progresses with execution of commercial plans.

    Commodity cost timing for JDE Peet'sH1 2026

    Profit will be more constrained in the inflationary first half

    Mitigation: Good visibility to accelerating trends in H2 as green coffee becomes more favorable.

    Commodity price volatility from Middle East conflictsPotential for 2027 if high prices sustain

    Impacts inputs like aluminum, resins, diesel, freight costs

    Mitigation: Largely hedged for 2026; mitigating action plans would be developed for longer term if prices sustain.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What's driving U.S. Refreshment momentum and its sustainability, including SNAP impact? How will Coffee profitability evolve quarterly given cost pressures and pricing actions?

    U.S. Refreshment Beverages saw double-digit growth driven by innovation (Canada Dry Fruit Splash, Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut), DSD execution, and increased marketing, with strong performance expected to continue, though Q1 benefited from incremental GHOST distribution. SNAP impacts are manageable. U.S. Coffee expects a modest FY26 profit decline, with Q1 being the most significant due to peak costs and trade inventory adjustments. Profitability will improve in H2 as green coffee costs ease (6-9 month lag) and innovation kicks in, potentially creating a tailwind for 2027.

    our focus in 2026 in U.S. Coffee is to navigate these near-term headwinds while really positioning our business for long-term success.

    asked by Dara Mohsenian · answered by Timothy Cofer

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Transformation and Separation Progress

    Keurig Dr Pepper closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, integrating over 20,000 new colleagues and confirming the healthy foundation, strong brands, and capabilities of the acquired business. The company is advancing its plans to separate into two advantaged pure-play public companies: Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. Operational readiness for separation is targeted by the end of 2026, with the official separation likely in early 2027, subject to market conditions. This strategic move aims to create value through increased focus and tailored strategies for each entity.

    02

    Future Vision for Beverage Co.

    Beverage Co. is envisioned as a growth-oriented challenger in the $300 billion North American refreshment beverages market. It will leverage iconic brands, differentiated go-to-market capabilities, and a proven track record of white space expansion. As an independent company, Beverage Co. expects to have additional strategic optionality, including optimizing its route-to-market model and proactively pursuing earlier-stage partnerships, new geographies, and creative structures to future-proof its portfolio and drive consistent top-tier results.

    03

    Future Vision for Global Coffee Co.

    Global Coffee Co. is set to become a scaled leader in the $400 billion global coffee market. It will benefit from an enhanced set of capabilities, a portfolio of leading global and regional brands, deep expertise in sourcing, blending, and appliances, and strong synergy potential. Rafa Oliveira, CEO of JDE Peet's, has been selected to lead the coffee operating unit and will become the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. upon separation, bringing significant CPG experience and a brand-led strategy.

    04

    U.S. Refreshment Beverages Momentum

    The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment delivered robust double-digit growth in Q1, driven by strong CSD performance, including Dr Pepper's core lines gaining share and Canada Dry's Q1 share gains from the Fruit Splash launch. The energy portfolio, featuring Bloom and GHOST, continued to expand market share, with both brands among the fastest-growing. The sports hydration partnership with Electrolit also showed healthy results, gaining significant share through distribution expansion and strong velocities. The segment expects continued strong performance for the remainder of the year, supported by innovation and increased marketing.

    05

    U.S. Coffee Segment Headwinds and Investments

    U.S. Coffee performance in Q1 was largely as anticipated, with net sales and operating income declines due to peak year-over-year cost pressures from higher green coffee hedges and tariffs, as well as trade inventory adjustments impacting pod shipments. Despite these near-term headwind📎s, the company is thoughtfully investing in long-term growth initiatives, such as the Keurig Coffee Collective innovation, the renewal and expansion of the K-Cup agreement with Nestlé USA, and preparing for the direct-to-consumer launch of the disruptive Keurig Alta system later this year. Profitability is expected to improve in the back half as costs ease and short-term dynamics normalize.

    06

    International Segment Performance and Strategy

    The International segment achieved high single-digit net sales growth on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by net price realization in response to cost pressures in Mexico and Canada. However, operating income declined due to these cost pressures, including the Mexico beverage tax, and increased marketing spending. The company anticipates improved profitability trends as inflationary pressures ease and commercial plans, including summertime activations, are executed. KDP also evolved its Suntory partnership in Europe to a capital-light concentrate supply model, providing access to incremental consumers.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.