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    KDP
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Keurig Dr Pepper Q4 FY25 earnings call KDP

    Feb 24, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Keurig Dr Pepper Q4 FY25 — Strong 2025 Performance and JDE Peet's Acquisition Progress

    Keurig Dr Pepper concluded a strong 2025, meeting annual guidance while advancing the transformational JDE Peet's acquisition and planned separation into two pure-play companies. The company navigated a dynamic environment with robust performance in Refreshment Beverages and International, though U.S. Coffee faced cyclical cost pressures and investment-driven profit impacts. KDP is focused on delivering low double-digit EPS growth in 2026, integrating JDE Peet's, and executing separation milestones.

    Highlights

    5
    • Net sales for FY25 increased almost 9%, driven by approximately 5 points of base business growth and a nearly 4-point GHOST contribution.

    • FY25 EPS grew 7% on a constant currency, non-GAAP adjusted basis.

    • U.S. Refreshment Beverages delivered double-digit net sales growth and high single-digit operating income growth in FY25.

    • International segment achieved mid-teens constant currency net sales growth and 20% operating income growth in Q4 FY25.

    • Stand-alone KDP free cash flow is expected to increase to approximately $2 billion in 2026, up from $1.519 billion in 2025.

    Concerns

    3
    • Q4 EPS grew only 1.7% to $0.60, limited by cost pressures, higher reinvestment spending, interest expense, and a higher tax rate.

    • U.S. Coffee Q4 operating income declined 8.8% due to cost inflation and a 4.1 percentage point volume/mix decline.

    • Q1 2026 EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.36 to $0.37, down from $0.42 in Q1 2025, due to lapping a $0.02 Vita Coco gain, peak coffee cost headwinds, and retailer inventory adjustments.

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year EPS growth (combined company)
    low double-digit growth
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Net Sales (combined company)
    $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    JDE Peet's contribution to EPS growth
    6 to 7 percentage points
    high materiality
    High
    Stand-alone KDP Net Sales Growth
    4% to 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Stand-alone KDP EPS Growth
    4% to 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    FX impact on stand-alone KDP net sales and EPS growth
    approximate 1 percentage point tailwind
    low materiality
    High
    Interest Expense
    $1.07 billion to $1.12 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Effective Tax Rate
    22% to 23%
    medium materiality
    High
    Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
    1.37 billion
    low materiality
    High
    Pretax Coffee JV Costs
    $190 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Convertible Preferred Costs
    greater of roughly $53 million quarterly preferred dividend or the securities approximately 8% proportionate share of earnings
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 EPS
    $0.36 to $0.37
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    U.S. Refreshment Beverages
    Q4 net sales grew at a low double-digit rate, driven by both volume/mix and net price realization. Operating income increased at a high single-digit rate. Volume/mix was primarily driven by the addition of GHOST and modest base business gains. Net pricing was led by CSD increases.
    Volume/mix contribution: 7 pointsNet pricing contribution: 4.5 points
    11.5%8.7%
    U.S. Coffee
    Q4 net sales grew 3.9%, primarily from net price realization. Operating income declined 8.8% due to cost inflation and volume/mix decline, partly offset by pricing and productivity. Brewer shipments declined due to higher price elasticity and retail inventory reductions.
    Net price realization contribution: 8 percentage pointsVolume/mix decline: 4.1 percentage pointsPod shipments decline: 2.8%Brewer shipments decline: 16.8%
    3.9%-8.8%
    International
    Q4 constant currency net sales increased 16%, with reported net sales up 21% due to favorable FX. Operating income increased 20%. Growth was balanced between pricing and volume/mix, with strong momentum in Mexico and healthy coffee trends in Canada. Results included some timing benefits, such as buying ahead of a Mexico beverage tax increase.
    Net price realization contribution: 9.2 pointsVolume/mix contribution: 6.8 pointsReported net sales growth: 21%
    16% (constant currency)20%

    Operational metrics

    14
    Net Sales Growth (constant currency)
    8.6%
    FY25

    On a constant currency basis.

    Operating Income Growth (constant currency)
    4.9%
    FY25

    On a constant currency basis.

    EPS Growth (constant currency)
    7.3%
    FY25

    On a constant currency, non-GAAP adjusted basis.

    Net Sales Growth
    9.9%
    Q4 FY25

    With growth in all three segments.

    Net Price Realization contribution to top line
    6 percentage points
    Q4 FY25

    Significant growth driver for Q4 net sales.

    Volume/Mix contribution to top line
    3.9 points
    Q4 FY25

    Reflecting addition of GHOST and modest base business increase.

    Gross Margin
    contracted 150 basis points
    Q4 FY25

    Gross margin contraction in Q4.

    SG&A as percent of sales
    improved 80 basis points
    Q4 FY25

    SG&A improvement in Q4.

    Operating Income Growth
    4.8%
    Q4 FY25

    Overall Q4 operating income growth.

    EPS Growth
    1.7%
    Q4 FY25

    Q4 EPS growth to $0.60, incorporating headwinds from interest expense and higher tax rate.

    JDE Peet's incremental revenue contribution
    $8.5 billion to $8.7 billion
    FY26

    Expected incremental contribution from JDE Peet's beginning in Q2 2026.

    GHOST distribution termination payments
    $225 million
    FY25

    One-time payments early in the year, unfavorably impacted FY25 free cash flow.

    Vita Coco gain
    $0.02 per share
    Q1 FY25

    Unfavorable comparison for Q1 2026 EPS due to lapping this gain.

    JDE Peet's synergy target
    $400 million
    3-year target

    Targeted synergies from the JDE Peet's acquisition.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand share
    EPS organic EPS growth7.3%%
    Gross operating margincontracted 150 basis pointsbps
    Organic revenue growth5 pointspoints
    Geographic regional mix16%%
    Unit case volume growth
    Pack architecture pricing actions
    Bottler franchise system economics
    Cold drink equipment distribution reach

    Product announcements

    15
    ProductTypeDetails
    Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut LTOlaunch
    Canada Dry Fruit Splashexpansion
    Bloom Popexpansion
    C4, GHOST, Bloom, Black Rifleupdate
    GHOSTexpansion
    Snappleupdate
    Mott'slaunch
    Electrolitupdate
    Keurig Altalaunch
    K-Supremeupdate
    K-Mini Mate Pluslaunch
    Keurig Coffee Collectivelaunch
    The Original Donut Shop Refreshersexpansion
    The Original Donut Shopexpansion
    La Colombe Draft Latteupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    JDE Peet'sacquisition

    KDP announced the acquisition of JDE Peet's, secured key regulatory approvals, and launched the tender offer. The acquisition is a transformational step to separate KDP into two pure-play companies: Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. KDP will also assume $5 billion of JDE Peet's existing debt.

    Capital programs

    3
    Beverage Co. Convertible Preferred Equity Raiseunderway$4.5 billion
    Funding: Convertible preferred equity

    Increased size from previously announced $3 billion based on strong demand, part of JDE Peet's acquisition financing.

    Global Coffee Co. Pod Manufacturing JVfinalized$4 billion
    Funding: JV

    Finalized and preparing to close, part of JDE Peet's acquisition financing.

    Debt Funding for JDE Peet's Acquisitionunderway$9 billion
    Funding: Debt (senior debt, existing term loan facility, junior subordinated notes)

    Plan to fund the balance of the acquisition through a combination of senior debt and drawing under the existing term loan facility, to be repaid with junior subordinated notes at a future date.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Q4 Profit Flow-through LimitationsQ4 FY25

    Q4 EPS grew only 1.7%

    U.S. Coffee Profit Pressure2026, most pronounced in Q1

    Q4 operating income declined 8.8%

    Mitigation: Significant marketing and other investment spending in 2026 to support growth initiatives like Keurig Coffee Collective and Keurig Alta.

    Mexico Beverage Tax IncreaseEffective beginning of 2026

    Impacted Q4 2025 buying ahead, expected softer start for International in Q1 2026

    Mitigation: Full year plan for International incorporates healthy top and bottom line delivery despite Q1 softness.

    Retailer Inventory Adjustments (U.S. Coffee)Q1 FY26

    Negatively impact top and bottom line performance in Q1 2026

    Mitigation: Expected to begin to ease after Q1.

    Lapping Prior Year GainQ1 FY26

    Unfavorable comparison of lapping a $0.02 per share Vita Coco gain

    Mitigation: Issue is behind us after Q1.

    SNAP Waiver AdjustmentsOngoing, with some states rolling on in spring

    Potential impact on consumer purchasing power, particularly in certain states (e.g., Texas, Florida)

    Mitigation: Closely monitoring state-by-state dynamics; baked in some allowance into 2026 plan; ready to respond with affordability options (mini cans, 2-liter value packs, promotions).

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Could you provide context on the top-line performance for stand-alone KDP, especially U.S. Refreshment, including pricing, partner assets, and base business? Also, what are the assumptions for JDE Peet's contribution to the 2026 EPS guidance?

    Anthony DiSilvestro explained that stand-alone KDP expects 4-6% top and bottom line growth, primarily driven by U.S. Refreshment's innovation, share gains, and pricing. For JDE Peet's, he cited an incremental revenue contribution of $8.5 billion to $8.7 billion and a 6-7 percentage point EPS benefit for 2026 (on a 3-quarter basis), consistent with the previously stated 10% full-year accretion, after accounting for synergies and financing costs.

    The most significant driver is expected to be U.S. Refreshment Beverage. We expect a strong top and bottom line performance following equal -- equally strong results in 2025.

    asked by Chris Carey · answered by Anthony DiSilvestro

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    JDE Peet's Acquisition & Separation Progress

    KDP is progressing with the JDE Peet's acquisition, having secured key regulatory approvals and launched the tender offer, aiming for an early April close. Integration planning is well underway, with multiple workstreams and a combined KDP operating structure planned for the interim period. The company is also advancing separation workstreams to establish two stand-alone businesses, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co., by the end of 2026, including capturing initial deal-related synergies and appointing independent leadership teams and Boards.

    02

    Strong 2025 Performance

    KDP delivered healthy 2025 results, with net sales increasing almost 9% (5 points from base business and 4 points from GHOST contribution) and EPS growing 7%. U.S. Refreshment Beverages was a standout performer, achieving double-digit net sales growth and high single-digit operating income growth. The International segment also showed resilience with top and bottom line growth, while U.S. Coffee trends were softer but demonstrated underlying progress.

    03

    U.S. Refreshment Beverages Momentum

    The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment continued its strong performance in Q4, with low double-digit net sales growth and a high single-digit operating income increase. This was driven by healthy core portfolio trends, winning innovations like Dr Pepper Blackberry and 7UP seasonal LTOs, and a well-executed transition of Dr Pepper to the DSD network in new territories. The multi-branded energy platform (C4, GHOST, Bloom, Black Rifle) outperformed the category, gaining nearly 1.5 market share points, and Electrolit and Vita Coco also showed robust growth.

    04

    U.S. Coffee Challenges and Investments

    Q4 was softer for U.S. Coffee, with revenue up 4% but operating income down 8.8% due to cyclical cost pressures, particularly elevated inflation from green coffee prices and tariffs. Despite this, KDP is actively investing in long-term initiatives, including a new data-driven Keurig brand equity campaign and preparations for the Keurig Alta next-generation platform launch. These investments are expected to create a sustainable platform for stronger future segment performance, despite near-term profit pressure.

    05

    International Segment Strength

    The International segment delivered a very strong Q4 with mid-teens constant currency net sales growth and 20% operating income growth, partly aided by timing. Momentum was led by the business in Mexico, where cold drinks continued to outperform and gain share across the portfolio. In Canada, performance was driven by healthy coffee trends, with significant pricing actions resulting in minimal volume elasticity. The company plans to continue investing in this growth segment in 2026.

    06

    2026 Innovation Pipeline

    KDP has bold innovation plans for 2026 across its portfolio. Refreshment Beverages will see the return of Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut LTO, Canada Dry Fruit Splash extensions, new Bloom Pop flavors, and GHOST's expansion into 8.4-ounce cans. Coffee innovations include the disruptive Keurig Alta system, new K-Supreme and K-Mini Mate Plus brewers, the Keurig Coffee Collective (Keurig brand's first entry into coffee), and new offerings for The Original Donut Shop and La Colombe.

    07

    Leadership and Governance Evolution

    KDP's Board and governance are evolving to support the company's transformation. Pam Patsley, the Lead Independent Director, will assume the role of Board Chair at the end of Q1, succeeding Bob Gamgort. Two new independent directors, Amie Thuener and Bill Newlands, are joining the Board. Additionally, the company is separating its existing Remuneration and Nominating Committee into newly created Nominating and Governance and Compensation Committees to further align with best practices.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.