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    KO
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    COCA COLA CO KO

    Apr 29, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    The Coca-Cola Company Q1 FY25 — Strong Organic Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

    The Coca-Cola Company demonstrated resilience in Q1 FY25 with strong organic revenue growth and significant margin expansion, driven by its all-weather strategy and granular execution. Despite dynamic external environments, including varied consumer sentiment and geopolitical tensions in some markets, the company remains confident in achieving its full-year guidance by leveraging its portfolio power and local distribution. Management highlighted the importance of agility and consumer-centricity to navigate near-term market dynamics.

    Highlights

    5
    • Delivered 2% volume growth globally.

    • Achieved 6% organic revenue growth, at the high end of the long-term algorithm.

    • Comparable gross margin increased approximately 30 basis points.

    • Comparable operating margin increased approximately 130 basis points.

    • Fairlife continued strong performance, adding most retail dollars to the beverage industry.

    Concerns

    5
    • North America volume was impacted by weakening consumer sentiment, particularly among Hispanic consumers, and severe weather.

    • Mexico momentum was weaker due to cycling strong prior-year growth, calendar shifts, and diminished consumer sentiment.

    • Europe volume declined with mixed performance in both Western and Eastern markets.

    • Concentrate sales were 1 point behind unit case sales due to 2 fewer days in the quarter.

    • Anticipate 2- to 3-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and 5- to 6-point currency headwind to comparable EPS for full year 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Organic revenue growth
    5% to 6%
    high materiality
    High
    Comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Currency headwind to comparable net revenues
    approximate 2- to 3-point
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Currency headwind to comparable earnings per share
    approximate 5- to 6-point
    high materiality
    Medium
    Bottler refranchising impact on comparable net revenues
    slight headwind
    medium materiality
    High
    Bottler refranchising impact on comparable earnings per share
    slight headwind
    medium materiality
    High
    Underlying effective tax rate
    20.8%
    medium materiality
    High
    Comparable earnings per share growth
    2% to 3%
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    11
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    North America
    Revenue and profit grew, and value share was won, but volume performance was not satisfactory due to weakening consumer sentiment, severe weather, and calendar shifts. Focus on accelerating volume growth.
    won value sharevolume impacted by weakening consumer sentimentvolume impacted by severe weather and calendar shiftsCoca-Cola Zero Sugar: continued volume growthfairlife: good quarterTopo Chico Sabores: continued tractionfoodservice: customer renewals and new accounts
    profit grew
    Latin America
    Organic revenue and comparable currency-neutral operating income grew despite flat volume. Strong performance in Brazil and Argentina offset weaker momentum in Mexico. System leveraging connected packaging and digital customer platforms.
    volume: flatBrazil: strong volume performanceArgentina: strong volume performanceMexico: weaker momentumMexico: cycling strong prior-year volume growthMexico: calendar shiftsMexico: diminished consumer sentiment
    grew organic revenuegrew comparable currency-neutral operating income
    EMEA
    Grew volume, organic revenue, and comparable currency-neutral operating income.
    volume: grew
    grew organic revenuegrew comparable currency-neutral operating income
    Europe
    Volume declined with mixed performance due to various factors. Focused on affordability and impactful marketing activations.
    volume: declinedperformance: mixed in Western and Eastern markets
    Eurasia and Middle East
    Drove strong volume growth and won value share. Business performance improved in Turkey despite challenges.
    volume: strong growthwon value shareTurkey: business performance improved
    Africa
    Grew volume despite cycling strong prior-year growth and double-digit inflation. Driving affordability with refillable offerings and value packages.
    volume: grewcycling strong prior-year growthdealing with double-digit inflation
    Asia Pacific
    Delivered volume, organic revenue, and comparable currency-neutral operating income growth.
    volume: delivered growth
    delivered organic revenue growthdelivered comparable currency-neutral operating income growth
    ASEAN and South Pacific
    Volume declined, with strong performance in the Philippines offset by weaker performance in Thailand and Indonesia. Won value share in the region.
    volume: declinedPhilippines: strong performanceThailand: weaker performanceIndonesia: weaker performancewon value share
    China
    System focus on improving execution led to volume growth. Delivered impactful marketing activations around Lunar New Year.
    volume: grewTrademark Coca-Cola: strong volume performanceSprite: getting back on track
    India
    Had strong volume growth across its portfolio. System expanded distribution and digital reach.
    volume: strong growth across portfolioadded nearly 350,000 outletsincreased household penetrationincreased cooler placementsadded approximately 100,000 customers to digital platforms
    Japan and South Korea
    Drove volume growth and won value share with strong performance from Ayataka tea.
    volume: grewwon value shareAyataka tea: strong performance

    Operational metrics

    17
    Unit case volume growth
    2%in line with multiyear trend
    Q1 FY25

    Unit case growth was 2%, in line with our multiyear trend.

    Concentrate sales vs. unit case sales gap
    1 point behind
    Q1 FY25

    Concentrate sales were 1 point behind unit case sales as the impact of 2 fewer days in the quarter was partially offset by the timing of concentrate shipments.

    Price/mix growth
    5%
    Q1 FY25

    Price/mix growth of 5% was driven primarily by pricing actions across our markets, partially offset by approximately 1 point of unfavorable mix.

    Pricing from intense inflationary markets contribution to price/mix
    approximately 1 pointdown from approximately 5 points in full year 2024
    Q1 FY25

    Pricing from intense inflationary markets contributed to approximately 1 point of price/mix growth, down from approximately 5 points in full year 2024.

    Comparable EPS
    $0.73increased 1% year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    first quarter comparable EPS of $0.73, increased 1% year-over-year despite 5% currency headwinds, dilution from bottler refranchising, elevated net interest expense and an approximate 2-point increase in our effective tax rate.

    Net debt leverage
    2.1xat the low end of our target range of 2 to 2.5x
    Q1 FY25

    Our balance sheet remained strong with our net debt leverage of 2.1x EBITDA, which is at the low end of our target range of 2 to 2.5x.

    Fairlife acquisition payment
    $6.2 billionfinal payment
    Q1 FY25

    During the quarter, we made our final $6.2 billion payment related to our acquisition of fairlife.

    Products with less than 100 calories per 12-ounce serving
    68%
    Q1 FY25

    68% of our products in our portfolio have less than 100 calories per 12-ounce serving.

    Volume from low or no calorie beverages
    30%
    Q1 FY25

    30% of our volume is from low or no calorie beverage.

    Billion-dollar brands
    30
    Q1 FY25

    We have 30 global and local billion-dollar brands that address a broad range of consumer need states and drinking occasions.

    Coca-Cola Orange Cream retail sales
    approximately $50 million
    Q1 FY25

    In the U.S., Coca-Cola Orange Cream is off to a good start with approximately $50 million in retail sales during the quarter.

    U.S. ecosystem jobs
    approximately 860,000
    annual

    according to a recent economic impact study by Steward Redqueen in the U.S., our ecosystem contributes approximately 860,000 jobs

    U.S. ecosystem GDP contribution
    approximately $58 billion
    annual

    and approximately $58 billion to the annual gross domestic product.

    Brazil ecosystem jobs
    approximately 575,000
    annual

    In Brazil, our ecosystem contributes approximately 575,000 jobs

    Brazil ecosystem GDP contribution
    over $15 billion
    annual

    and over $15 billion annually to the gross domestic product.

    India new outlets added
    nearly 350,000
    Q1 FY25

    In India, we had strong volume growth across our portfolio of global and local brands. Our system added nearly 350,000 outlets and increased household penetration.

    India new digital customer platforms
    approximately 100,000
    Q1 FY25

    Also, our system increased cooler placements and added approximately 100,000 customers to its digital customer platforms.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand sharewon value share
    EPS organic EPS growth$0.73USD
    Gross operating margin30 basis pointsbps
    Organic revenue growth6%%
    Geographic regional mix
    Unit case volume growth2%%
    Pack architecture pricing actions
    Bottler franchise system economicsslight headwind
    Cold drink equipment distribution reach

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Simply Poplaunch
    Share a Coke campaignlaunch

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Weakening consumer sentimentQ1 FY25, ongoing

    particularly among Hispanic consumers

    Mitigation: system quickly pivoted to prioritize impactful investment opportunities, emphasizing faster decision-making and greater agility to accelerate volume growth; focus on winning back Hispanic consumers and reinforcing affordability options.

    Geopolitical tensions and macro uncertaintyQ1 FY25, near term

    impacted consumer confidence and consumption behaviors

    Mitigation: leveraging global scale and local expertise to respond; system continues to prioritize agility, consumer centricity and close partnership across ecosystem.

    Currency headwindsQ1 FY25, Full Year 2025

    5% currency headwinds to Q1 comparable EPS; approximate 2- to 3-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and 5- to 6-point currency headwind to comparable EPS for full year 2025

    Mitigation: hedge positions in place; prudent guidance; business model flexibility.

    Dynamic tariff landscapeongoing

    could impact pockets of our systems cost structure as well as consumer sentiment

    Mitigation: numerous levers to help manage the impact; local franchise structure is an advantage; exposure to trade import/export not massive relative to cost structure; long-term hedging positions.

    Tougher volume comparisonQ2 FY25

    cycling a tougher volume comparison from the prior year

    Mitigation: taking action to address consumer dynamics across some key markets; expect recovery to take some time; focus on full year guidance.

    Short-term disruption in supply chainsQ2 FY25

    likely in the U.S. (e.g., container shipping bookings for late May, early June)

    Mitigation: not expecting supply chain disruptions for our business; business system, strategy, and ability to adapt will see us through.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    North America Volume Growth

    next quarter
    Currentvolume impacted by weakening consumer sentiment
    Targetaccelerated volume growth

    Why it matters

    Volume recovery in a key market like North America is crucial for overall growth and demonstrates the effectiveness of targeted investments and affordability strategies.

    Our system has quickly pivoted to prioritize the most impactful investment opportunities and is emphasizing faster decision-making and greater agility to accelerate volume growth.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Why was the full-year currency-neutral EPS guidance not raised despite improved FX outlook, implying a lower underlying profit expectation? Also, thoughts on sustaining unit case growth given tougher comps and geopolitical risks.

    John Murphy stated that the currency guidance is prudent given early-year volatility, especially in emerging markets, and that the full-year guidance is comfortable. James Quincey noted that Q1 had strong global portfolio performance, but Q2 faces tougher comps, and actions taken to address Q1 challenges will take time to impact.

    We have had an overall strong start when you look at the global portfolio, thanks to the strength of that portfolio. I highlighted in my script remarks. As you just alluded to, we're cycling a strong second quarter. We have had a number of actions to address some of the challenges we've seen in the first quarter. And we expect those actions to have an impact, but it will not be immediate.

    asked by Dara Mohsenian · answered by John Murphy

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Global Performance and Strategic Agility

    The Coca-Cola Company delivered robust Q1 FY25 results, with 2% volume growth and 6% organic revenue growth, attributed to its "all-weather strategy" and enhanced execution capabilities. The company emphasized its "human centricity" and system alignment, enabling granular, tailored execution across diverse geographies, categories, and channels. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions impacting consumer confidence in some markets, the business demonstrated resilience and adaptability.

    02

    North America Dynamics

    In North America, revenue and profit grew, and value share was gained, but volume performance was unsatisfactory. This was influenced by severe weather, calendar shifts, and weakening consumer sentiment, particularly among Hispanic consumers. Management noted that specific negative sentiment around the Coke brand in Southern states, though false, also impacted performance. The system is prioritizing impactful investments, faster decision-making, and greater agility to accelerate volume growth, focusing on affordability and winning back Hispanic consumers.

    03

    Latin America and EMEA Insights

    Latin America saw flat volume but strong organic revenue and comparable currency-neutral operating income growth, with Brazil and Argentina performing well. Mexico experienced weaker momentum due to tough prior-year comparisons, calendar shifts, and geopolitical tensions. In EMEA, volume grew, driven by Eurasia and Middle East, while Europe saw a volume decline with mixed performance. The company is focusing on affordability, refillable offerings, and impactful marketing campaigns like "Everyday Tasty Celebrations" for Coca-Cola and partnerships with Xbox for Fanta to drive demand.

    04

    Asia Pacific Growth Drivers

    Asia Pacific delivered volume, organic revenue, and comparable currency-neutral operating income growth. Strong performance in India, with 350,000 new outlets and increased household penetration, and China, showing volume growth due to improved execution and Lunar New Year activations, were key contributors. ASEAN and South Pacific experienced volume declines, offset by strong performance in the Philippines. The region is emphasizing affordability, increased outlet coverage, and cold drink equipment placement.

    05

    Portfolio and Innovation Strategy

    The company's portfolio of 30 billion-dollar brands offers diverse choices, with 30% of volume from low/no-calorie beverages and 68% of products under 100 calories per 12-ounce serving. Marketing and innovation are fueled by "Studio X" for tailored digital marketing, exemplified by the Lunar New Year campaign. The global return of the "Share a Coke" campaign in 2025 targets Gen Z with digital experiences. New product launches like Simply Pop (prebiotic soda) and continued investment in brands like Fuze Tea and Coca-Cola Orange Cream highlight a strategy of "fewer but bolder launches" and test-and-learn approaches.

    06

    Ecosystem and Local Impact

    Coca-Cola's ecosystem, including suppliers and bottling partners, supports approximately 6 million people globally. The franchise model, leveraging global scale with local execution, is seen as an advantage, contributing significantly to local economies (e.g., 860,000 jobs and $58 billion GDP in the U.S.; 575,000 jobs and $15 billion GDP in Brazil). This local presence and procurement strategy help mitigate global trade tensions and reinforce community ties, contributing to the business's resilience.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.