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    KO
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    COCA COLA CO KO

    Feb 11, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    The Coca-Cola Company Q4 FY24 — Strong Organic Revenue Growth and EPS Expansion

    The Coca-Cola Company demonstrated agility and resilience in Q4 FY24, delivering robust organic revenue growth and comparable EPS expansion through its all-weather strategy. The company is leveraging its powerful brand portfolio, pervasive distribution system, and local expertise to navigate a dynamic global environment. Management is confident in its ability to meet 2025 guidance and long-term objectives by investing in marketing transformation, innovation, and commercial excellence, while adapting to market dynamics locally.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved 7% comparable earnings per share growth in FY24, despite significant currency headwinds.

    • Delivered 14% organic revenue growth in Q4 FY24, driven by strong pricing and favorable mix.

    • Reported 2% unit case growth in Q4 FY24, in line with multiyear trends.

    • Expanded comparable gross margin by approximately 160 basis points and comparable operating margin by approximately 80 basis points in Q4 FY24.

    • Generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow (excluding IRS tax litigation deposit) in FY24, an 11% increase year-over-year.

    Concerns

    5
    • Experienced 11% currency headwinds and 4% headwinds from bottler refranchising to comparable EPS in Q4 FY24.

    • Anticipates an approximate 3- to 4-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and 6- to 7-point headwind to comparable EPS for full year 2025.

    • Expects the underlying effective tax rate for 2025 to increase to 20.8% due to global minimum tax regulations.

    • Volume declined in Europe and Africa (driven by North Africa and Nigeria) during Q4 FY24.

    • Foresees higher interest expense in 2025 versus prior year.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Organic revenue growth
    5% to 6%
    high materiality
    High
    Comparable currency-neutral EPS growth
    8% to 10%
    high materiality
    High
    Comparable EPS growth
    2% to 3%
    high materiality
    High
    Free cash flow
    approximately $9.5 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Cash from operations
    approximately $11.7 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital investments
    approximately $2.2 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Underlying effective tax rate
    20.8%
    medium materiality
    High
    Currency headwind to comparable net revenues
    3- to 4-point
    high materiality
    High
    Currency headwind to comparable EPS
    6- to 7-point
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    6
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Asia Pacific
    Benefited from successful integrated marketing campaigns and increased affordability through refillable offerings. Innovation was a strong contributor in Japan and South Korea. India rebounded nicely with innovative marketing campaigns and significant digital customer platform expansion.
    Volume growth: statedTrademark Coca-Cola volume growth: stated (ASEAN and South Pacific)Refillable offerings contribution to volume growth: ~1/3 (ASEAN and South Pacific in 2024)Volume growth: stated (China)Trademark Coca-Cola share gain: stated (China)Sprite volume performance: improved (China)Fanta volume performance: improved (China)Minute Maid volume performance: improved (China)Volume growth: stated (Japan and South Korea)Innovation contribution to growth: strong (Japan and South Korea)Volume rebound: stated (India)Digital customer platforms outlets added: ~440,000 (India in 2024)Maaza: 30th billion-dollar brand
    EMEA - Europe
    Experienced mixed performance across Western and Eastern markets. Engaged consumers with experiential marketing campaigns and saw good traction on Fuze Tea, POWERADE Zero, Jack & Coke, and Absolut & Sprite innovations.
    Volume: declined
    grewgrew
    EMEA - Eurasia and Middle East
    Returned to volume growth despite continued macro headwinds, emphasizing local business and driving affordability through increased cooler placement and visible inventory.
    Volume growth: returned to
    EMEA - Africa
    Volume declined primarily due to pressure in North Africa and Nigeria, partially offset by strong momentum in South Africa. Actions taken to adjust price architecture for affordability, with investments in refillable offerings, cold drink equipment, and manufacturing capacity.
    Volume: declined (driven by North Africa and Nigeria)Volume momentum: strong (South Africa)
    Latin America
    Grew volume, revenue, and profit despite macroeconomic pressures. Focused on linking Trademark Coca-Cola to meal occasions and increasing single-serve offerings. Digital customer platforms enabled tailored offerings.
    Volume: grewFragmented trade customers on digital platforms: Over 90%
    grewgrew
    North America
    Achieved robust top line and profit growth with increased transactions and volume. Trademark Coca-Cola and fairlife remained leaders in at-home retail sales. Sparkling flavors gained share due to successful limited-time innovations and enhanced execution.
    Transactions: grewVolume: grewTrademark Coca-Cola at-home retail sales growth: leaderfairlife at-home retail sales growth: leaderSparkling flavors share: gained
    robust top line growthrobust profit growth

    Operational metrics

    21
    Organic revenue growth
    14%
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by pricing and mix.

    Unit case growth
    2%
    Q4 FY24

    In line with multiyear trend.

    Concentrate sales growth
    3 points ahead of unit cases
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by 2 additional days in the quarter and timing of concentrate shipments.

    Price/mix growth
    9%
    Q4 FY24

    Pricing split between normal actions and intense inflationary pricing in a handful of markets.

    Comparable EPS growth
    12%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Despite 11% currency headwinds and 4% headwinds from bottler refranchising.

    Comparable EPS growth
    7%
    FY24

    On top of 6% average comparable EPS growth over prior 5 years.

    Adjusted free cash flow conversion
    93%
    FY24

    Within long-term targeted range.

    Net debt leverage
    1.8xbelow targeted range of 2 to 2.5x
    Q4 FY24

    If including fairlife contingent consideration, leverage would be at the low end of the targeted range.

    Fairlife contingent consideration
    $6.2 billion
    latest estimate

    Expected net debt leverage would be at a low end of targeted range if included.

    Transition tax payment
    $1.2 billionincrease of approximately $240 million versus 2024
    FY25

    Final year of payment related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

    Bottling investments as percent of consolidated net revenue
    13%down from 52% in 2015
    Q4 FY24

    Reflects progress in refranchising.

    Return on invested capital
    up 6 points
    since 2015

    Improved since 2015.

    Refillable offerings contribution to volume growth
    approximately 1/3
    2024

    Contributed to volume growth in the region.

    Outlets added to digital customer platforms
    approximately 440,000
    2024

    Provides more opportunities to tailor product, price, and packaging offerings.

    Fragmented trade customers on digital customer platforms
    Over 90%
    Q4 FY24

    Allows for greater opportunity to tailor offerings to customers' individual needs.

    Fuze Tea retail value growth
    3x fasterthan the tea category
    Q4 FY24

    Demonstrates success of sustaining investments behind key innovations.

    Trademark Coca-Cola retail sales increase
    approximately $40 billion
    past 3 years

    Reflects tangible results from marketing transformation.

    Brands found in outlets
    33 million
    Q4 FY24

    Still ample headroom to increase outlet coverage and reduce out-of-stocks.

    Cold drink equipment units
    approximately 14 million
    Q4 FY24

    Present in approximately 33 million customer outlets.

    Coolers added
    nearly 600,000
    2024

    System invested to add more cold drink equipment to drive consumption.

    Gross proceeds from refranchising
    $3.5 billion
    2024

    Reflects ongoing refranchising agenda.

    Industry KPIs

    11
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand sharegained share
    EPS organic EPS growth12%%
    Gross operating marginup approximately 160 basis pointsbps
    Organic revenue growth14%%
    Geographic regional mix
    Unit case volume growth2%%
    Aluminum packaging cost impact25%%
    Energy functional category health3x fasterx
    Pack architecture pricing actionsapproximately 1/3%
    Bottler franchise system economics13%%
    Cold drink equipment distribution reachapproximately 14 millionunits

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    Fanta Beetlejuice haunted apple flavorlaunch
    Coke and OREOlaunch
    Sprite winter spiced cranberrylaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Jubilant GroupRefranchising of 40% of India business to a local partner

    The refranchising program continues, with the Jubilant Group expected to add significantly to execution capabilities in India.

    Philippines bottlerRefranchising of bottling operations in the Philippines

    The refranchising of the Philippines bottling operations closed during the first quarter of 2024.

    Capital programs

    2
    Fairlife capacity expansionunderway

    Benefit: New York factory

    Need to get the New York factory up and running to continue unconstrained growth for fairlife. This is a significant portion of expected capital investment for 2025.

    System investment in India and Africaunderway

    Benefit: build capacity

    A significant portion of expected capital investment for 2025 is to continue to invest in the system in India and Africa.

    Risks & headwinds

    9
    Currency headwindsQ4 FY24 and Full Year 2025

    11% to comparable EPS in Q4 FY24; 3-4 points to comparable net revenues and 6-7 points to comparable EPS for FY25

    Mitigation: Based on current rates and hedge positions.

    Bottler refranchising impactQ4 FY24 and Full Year 2025

    4% headwind to comparable EPS in Q4 FY24; slight headwind to comparable net revenues and comparable EPS for FY25

    Mitigation: Expected to have a greater impact in Q1 2025 as the company cycles the impact of refranchising the Philippines.

    Higher interest expenseFull Year 2025

    elevated versus prior year

    Mitigation: Believed to be manageable, not expecting significant leverage or deleverage below the line.

    Increased effective tax rateFull Year 2025

    20.8%

    Mitigation: Driven primarily by the impact of several countries enacting global minimum tax regulations.

    Working capital initiatives reversalFull Year 2025

    impact 2025 free cash flow

    Mitigation: Part of the timing of working capital initiatives that benefited 2024 free cash flow will reverse.

    Macro headwindsQ4 FY24 and ongoing

    continued

    Mitigation: Impacted China, Eurasia and Middle East, North Africa and Nigeria. Company emphasizes localness and agility to navigate.

    Agricultural commodity pressuresFull Year 2025

    low single-digit range overall

    Mitigation: Some pressures on juice and coffee, but company has usual set of levers to deploy.

    Aluminum tariffs/costsongoing

    25% increase in aluminum price (US business)

    Mitigation: Manageable problem through hedging, supply chain mitigation, sourcing, weights of cans, and potential switch to PET bottles.

    GLP-1 drugs impact on consumptionongoing

    anecdotal evidence of impact

    Mitigation: Not a big aggregate factor for the nonalcoholic beverage industry so far; company believes it can adapt as a total beverage company.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Organic revenue growth balance

    next quarter
    CurrentMore weighted to price than volume in 2025 guidance
    TargetCloser balance between volume and price/mix, or continued strong volume momentum

    Why it matters

    Indicates the quality and sustainability of top-line growth, especially as inflationary pricing moderates.

    It seems more likely in '25 there'll be a little more price and a little less volume, but there will be volume growth and obviously there will be price growth.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What is Coca-Cola's global perspective on the consumer environment, particularly in developed markets given mixed sentiment?

    The consumer environment is generally stable with good economic growth globally. While lower-income segments in the U.S. and Western Europe face pressure, the rest of the consumer base is spending. Emerging markets show robust demand, with India, China, and the Middle East improving. Coca-Cola adapts with marketing, innovation, execution, affordability, and premiumization.

    I think the overall consumer environment is pretty stable in the sense that there's good economic growth on a broad-based view around the world and that includes both the developed and the emerging markets.

    asked by Lauren Lieberman · answered by James Quincey

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Global Consumer Environment and Market Dynamics

    The global consumer environment remains largely stable, with good economic growth observed across both developed and emerging markets. While lower-income segments in the U.S. and Western Europe face disposable income pressure, the broader consumer base continues to spend. The company noted continued robustness and growth in emerging markets, with India rebounding, and China and the Middle East showing improvement, despite some volatility. Management emphasized responding to these dynamics with a flexible strategy focusing on affordability and premiumization.

    02

    Strategic Growth Flywheel and Commercial Execution

    Coca-Cola is executing its strategic growth flywheel by amplifying successful initiatives and fine-tuning others. Key areas of focus include network marketing, innovation, and commercial excellence. The system is investing heavily in digital capabilities, such as digital customer platforms in India and Latin America, to accelerate consumer recruitment and increase consumption. Efforts are concentrated on improving product availability, increasing basket incidence by activating integrated marketing campaigns, and expanding cold drink equipment placement, with 600,000 coolers added in 2024.

    03

    Marketing Transformation and Innovation Pipeline

    The company is seeing tangible results from its marketing transformation, which integrates product, digital, live, and retail experiences. An example is the Coca-Cola Christmas ad created with generative AI, which was produced faster and at a lower cost. Innovation efforts are prioritizing 'bigger and bolder bets' with clear objectives, ranging from short-term buzz (e.g., Coke and OREO) to lasting impact (e.g., Fuze Tea, Topo Chico Sabores, Minute Maid Zero Sugar). Innovation contributed strongly to revenue growth in 2024, with improved success rates.

    04

    Capital Allocation and Financial Strength

    Coca-Cola maintains a strong balance sheet with net debt leverage of 1.8x EBITDA, below its targeted range of 2x to 2.5x. The company's capital allocation policy prioritizes agility, with an unwavering commitment to growing its dividend, which has increased for 62 consecutive years. In 2024, dividends paid represented 73% of adjusted free cash flow. Share repurchases typically offset dilution from stock options. The company also highlighted its track record of scaling acquisitions, having added 9 billion-dollar brands since 2006, with only 3 being billion-dollar brands at acquisition.

    05

    Commodity and Trade Environment Management

    The company actively manages a dynamic macro environment, including commodity price changes and potential tariffs. Hedging programs are in place for key materials, and mitigation strategies involve adjusting sourcing, improving productivity, and managing packaging mix. While agricultural commodities like juice and coffee may see some pressure, the company believes it can manage through challenges like aluminum tariffs in the U.S. business by adapting its packaging strategy and supply chain, viewing it as a manageable problem rather than a significant swing factor.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.