Skip to content
    LLY
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    ELI LILLY Q2 FY25 earnings call LLY

    Aug 7, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Eli Lilly and Company Q2 FY25 — Strong Growth, Pipeline Progress, and Raised Guidance

    Eli Lilly delivered a robust second quarter, marked by strong revenue and EPS growth, primarily fueled by its incretin franchise. The company advanced its pipeline with positive Phase III data for orforglipron and tirzepatide, while also expanding manufacturing capacity. Despite some pricing pressures and formulary exclusions, Lilly raised its full-year financial outlook, signaling confidence in its strategic execution and future growth drivers.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenue grew 38% compared to Q2 2024, driven by key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound.

    • Non-GAAP EPS increased 61% to $6.31, leading to raised full-year guidance.

    • Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 trial showed patients lost more than 27 pounds (12.4% body weight) at the highest dose, with 40% losing over 15% body weight.

    • Incretin doses produced increased by over 1.6x in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, with expectations for at least 1.8x in H2 2025 vs H2 2024.

    • Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT trial demonstrated an 8% lower rate of MACE-3 events and 16% lower all-cause mortality compared to Trulicity.

    Concerns

    3
    • U.S. revenue experienced an 8% decline in price, partially offsetting strong volume growth.

    • CVS pharmacy benefit manager excluded Zepbound from its template formulary plans, causing significant disruption and expected headwinds to Q3 volume growth rate.

    • Acquired IPR&D charges negatively impacted Q2 EPS by $0.14.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Revenue
    $60 billion - $62 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Non-GAAP Performance Margin
    43% - 45.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Non-GAAP EPS
    $21.75 - $23
    high materiality
    High
    Incretin Doses Production
    at least 1.8x
    high materiality
    High
    Orforglipron Regulatory Submissions
    first regulatory submissions yet this year
    high materiality
    High
    Orforglipron Chronic Weight Management Submissions
    Q4
    high materiality
    High
    Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT Data Submission
    by the end of this year
    high materiality
    High
    Pirtobrutinib BRUIN CLL-313 Readout
    later this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Donanemab EU Approval and Launch
    later this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Orforglipron Phase III Trial Initiation (Knee Osteoarthritis Pain)
    starting later this year
    low materiality
    Medium
    Retatrutide Phase III Study Initiation (MASLD)
    later this year
    low materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    12
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    U.S.
    Strong volume growth was partially offset by an 8% decline in price.
    Volume growth: strong (Zepbound and Mounjaro)Price decline: 8%
    38%
    Europe
    Reflects strong uptake of Mounjaro.
    Mounjaro uptake: strong
    77% (constant currency)
    Japan
    Driven by Mounjaro and Ebglyss.
    Mounjaro and Ebglyss: drivers
    7% (constant currency)
    China
    Driven by volume growth of Mounjaro.
    Mounjaro volume growth: driver
    19% (constant currency)
    Rest of World
    Primarily driven by stocking in the base period related to Mounjaro launches, largely offset by volume growth of Mounjaro and Verzenio this year.
    Mounjaro and Verzenio volume growth: largely offset stocking impact
    -1% (constant currency)
    Ebglyss
    Continues to perform well in atopic dermatitis with strong new patient starts and revenue trends.
    New patient starts: strongRevenue trends: strongTotal prescriptions: nearly doubled since Q1PBM coverage: all 3 largest PBMs (90% commercial insurance)
    Omvoh
    Making progress in a competitive market for Crohn's disease.
    Launch in Crohn's disease: 1 full quarterNew citrate-free formulation: available in most major marketsNew patient starts: positive trends in U.S., Germany, Japan, other international markets
    Jaypirca
    Physician feedback is positive, with strong uptake and encouraging trends for time on therapy.
    Uptake: strong within label population (later lines of CLL and MCL)Time on therapy: encouraging trends
    Verzenio
    Continued to be the NBRx and TRx market leader in the U.S. and a standard of care in high-risk early breast cancer.
    Global sales growth: 12% (driven by volume)U.S. NBRx and TRx market leader: yesStandard of care: high-risk early breast cancerU.S. prescriptions growth: 4% (Q2 vs Q2 2024)International volume growth: 18%
    12%
    Kisunla
    Making significant progress in driving healthcare system readiness and adoption, with strong diagnostic growth.
    Launch trajectory: steadyDiagnostic growth: strong (PET and blood biomarker test)Physicians started patients: >1,500Healthcare organizations started patients: >150 (top organizations)Approvals outside U.S.: 13 countriesEurope approval and launch: anticipated later this year
    Mounjaro
    Delivered impressive performance, becoming the U.S. market leader in total type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions.
    Global sales: $5.2 billionNew type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions (U.S.): >50% shareTotal type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions (U.S.): market leader in JulyTotal prescription share of market: gained 8 percentage points (first 7 months of 2025)International launches: Mexico, Brazil, most major marketsMarketing: single brand for chronic weight management and type 2 diabetes in all international markets except Canada and Japan
    $5.2 billion
    Zepbound
    Strong performance, maintaining leadership in the U.S. branded anti-obesity market, with significant uptake in cash-pay vials.
    Sales: $3.4 billionBranded anti-obesity market leader (U.S.): yesTotal patients taking Zepbound: 2/312.5- and 15-milligram single-use vials: recently launched in LillyDirectCash pay vials: ~20% of total U.S. Zepbound prescriptionsCash pay vials: >35% of new prescriptions in Q2
    $3.4 billion

    Operational metrics

    35
    Gross margin
    85%+3 percentage points YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Increase primarily driven by improved cost of production and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower realized prices.

    Marketing, selling and administrative expenses growth
    30%
    Q2 FY25

    Increased as the company continues to increase investment to support newest launches.

    R&D expenses growth
    23%
    Q2 FY25

    Driven by higher expenses for late-stage assets and additional investment in early-stage research.

    Non-GAAP performance margin
    45.9%+6 percentage points YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Increased by more than 6 percentage points from Q2 2024 driven by revenue growth.

    Effective tax rate
    16.5%consistent with Q2 2024
    Q2 FY25

    Consistent with Q2 2024.

    Non-GAAP EPS
    $6.31+61% YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Including a negative impact of $0.14 from acquired IPR&D charges.

    Acquired IPR&D charges impact on EPS
    $0.14consistent with Q2 2024
    Q2 FY25

    Negative impact on EPS, consistent with prior year.

    U.S. incretin analog market total prescriptions growth
    41%YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Q2 was another quarter of steady market growth.

    Lilly incretin market share
    >57%+3.8 percentage points vs Q1 FY25
    Q2 FY25

    Lilly's performance was strong, reaching above 57% share of market.

    Mounjaro new type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions share
    >50%
    Q2 FY25

    Mounjaro exited the quarter with more than 50% of new type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions in the U.S.

    Mounjaro total prescription share of market gain
    8 percentage points
    first 7 months of 2025

    Mounjaro gained 8 percentage points in total prescription share of market during the first 7 months of 2025.

    Zepbound branded anti-obesity market share
    2/3
    Q2 FY25

    Zepbound continues to be the U.S. market leader in the branded anti-obesity market with 2/3 of total patients taking Zepbound.

    Zepbound cash pay vials as % of total U.S. prescriptions
    20%
    Q2 FY25

    The cash pay vials were approximately 20% of total U.S. Zepbound prescriptions.

    Zepbound cash pay vials as % of new prescriptions
    35%
    Q2 FY25

    The cash pay vials were over 35% of new prescriptions in Q2.

    Incretin salable doses production
    1.6xvs H1 2024
    H1 2025

    Produced more than 1.6x the amount of salable incretin doses during the first half of 2025 when compared to the first half of 2024.

    Dividends distributed
    $1.3 billion
    Q2 FY25

    Distributed $1.3 billion in dividends.

    Share repurchases executed
    $700 million
    Q2 FY25

    Executed approximately $700 million in share repurchases.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 average weight loss
    7.8% - 12.4%
    72 weeks

    Patients in ATTAIN-1 lost on average between 7.8% and 12.4% of their body weight after 72 weeks depending on the dose.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 patients losing >15% body weight
    40%
    72 weeks

    Approximately 40% of people on the highest dose lost more than 15% of their body weight.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 discontinuation due to adverse events
    5% - 10%
    72 weeks

    Discontinuations due to adverse events were low, with 5% to 10% of patients discontinuing orforglipron across doses.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 placebo discontinuation rate
    29.9%
    72 weeks

    The rate of discontinuation in ATTAIN-1 for placebo was 29.9%.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 discontinuation rate (active arms)
    22% - 24%
    72 weeks

    Discontinuation for orforglipron ranging from 22% to 24%.

    Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 gender split (female)
    64%
    baseline

    Gender split for baseline population in ATTAIN-1 was about 64% female across all arms, well balanced.

    Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT MACE-3 rate reduction
    8%lower rate vs Trulicity
    study duration

    Tirzepatide achieved the primary objective of the study, demonstrating non-inferiority compared to Trulicity with an 8% lower rate of MACE-3 events.

    Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT all-cause mortality reduction
    16%lower vs dulaglutide
    study duration

    The rate of all-cause mortality was 16% lower on tirzepatide versus dulaglutide.

    Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT MACE-3 risk reduction (indirect vs placebo)
    28%vs putative placebo
    study duration

    Indirect comparison analysis showed that tirzepatide reduced the risk of MACE-3 by 28% compared to putative placebo.

    Tirzepatide SURPASS-CVOT all-cause mortality reduction (indirect vs placebo)
    39%vs putative placebo
    study duration

    Indirect comparison analysis showed that tirzepatide reduced all-cause mortality by 39% compared to putative placebo.

    Pirtobrutinib BRUIN CLL-314 superiority p-value
    <0.05
    study duration

    Pirtobrutinib had a nominal p-value for superiority that was less than 0.05 compared to ibrutinib.

    Retatrutide Phase II MASLD liver fat reduction
    >80%
    Phase II trial

    In a prior Phase II trial in MASLD, retatrutide reduced liver fat by over 80%.

    Tirzepatide Phase II MASH resolution
    >50%
    Phase II trial

    In a Phase II trial in MASH, tirzepatide led to over half of patients meeting criteria for resolution of MASH without worsening of fibrosis.

    Tariff impact
    modest
    FY25

    The 2025 impact of currently announced tariffs is expected to be modest and has been factored into guidance.

    LillyDirect Zepbound total TRx in vial
    1.1 million
    Q2 FY25

    Generated over 1.1 million TRx in vial in Q2 through LillyDirect.

    Orforglipron efficacy estimand (placebo adjusted)
    11.5%placebo adjusted
    study duration

    Analyst noted efficacy estimand at 11.5% placebo adjusted, consistent with Novo's oral sema data in OASIS 4.

    Orforglipron ITT-like treatment estimand (placebo adjusted)
    9%placebo adjusted
    study duration

    Analyst noted ITT-like treatment estimand at 9% placebo adjusted, compared to oral sema at almost 14% placebo adjusted.

    Employer opt-in coverage for anti-obesity medicines
    50% - 55%steady
    current

    Employer opt-in coverage has been steady around 50% to 55%.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Prescription volume41%%
    EPS revenue guidance$60 billion - $62 billion (Revenue); $21.75 - $23 (Non-GAAP EPS)USD
    Pricing policy impactModest
    Pipeline clinical milestones4
    Regulatory approvals filingsPositive opinion
    Therapeutic drug market share>57%%
    Price volume mix decomposition8%%
    Glp 1 incretin franchise metrics>50%%
    Geographic regional revenue growth38% (U.S.); 77% (Europe); 7% (Japan); 19% (China)%
    Clinical trial efficacy safety data8% lower MACE-3 rate; 16% lower all-cause mortality%

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    SiteOne TherapeuticsAcquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, expanding Lilly's pain portfolio.

    Adds a clinical-stage non-opioid pain program (STC-004, a Nav1.8 inhibitor) to Lilly's mix, with encouraging early data to treat pain.

    Verve TherapeuticsAcquisition of Verve Therapeutics, adding genetic medicines for cardiovascular disease.

    Adds several genetic medicines for cardiovascular disease that may only need to be given once in a lifetime. Most advanced programs are VERVE-102 (targets PCSK9) and VERVE-201 (targets ANGPTL3).

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    CVS Pharmacy Benefit Manager Exclusion of ZepboundQ3 FY25

    Expected to be a headwind to the rate of volume growth in Q3; caused significant disruption to patients.

    Mitigation: Company strongly disagrees with the decision and remains confident in the long-term growth outlook for Zepbound.

    Lower realized prices in U.S.Q2 FY25

    8% decline in price in Q2 FY25 for U.S. revenue.

    Mitigation: Offset by strong volume growth of Zepbound and Mounjaro; company aims to price to value and offers consumer-level pricing through LillyDirect.

    Drug pricing reform discussionOngoing

    Potential for foreign price controls to be inserted into U.S. system, risking low productivity and high out-of-pocket costs.

    Mitigation: Engaging constructively with the administration to find solutions that benefit patients while preserving innovation; implemented LillyDirect for more affordable access.

    Compounding of GLP-1 medicinesOngoing

    Patient safety risk due to unapproved, potentially harmful products.

    Mitigation: Calling for regulators and law enforcement to eliminate this practice, emphasizing that there is no drug shortage.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Zepbound volume growth rate

    Q3 FY25
    CurrentStrong, but expected headwind
    TargetRate of growth post-CVS formulary exclusion

    Why it matters

    The impact of CVS's formulary exclusion on Zepbound's volume growth rate will indicate the severity of access restrictions and the resilience of demand.

    While it's still early, we have seen this decision negatively impact Zepbound prescriptions during July and expect it to be a headwind to the rate of volume growth in Q3.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How does orforglipron's weight loss profile compare to Wegovy, and where does it fit in the treatment landscape alongside Zepbound and Wegovy?

    Management highlighted orforglipron's ability to achieve significant weight loss (27 pounds, 12.4% body weight) and improvements in metabolic biomarkers with a once-daily oral pill. They emphasized its production flexibility and potential for early disease intervention and maintenance therapy, seeing it as a convenient alternative to injectables.

    The idea that you can get 27 pounds of weight loss from a single pill and also get really encouraging effects on other important biomarkers, things like blood pressure, lipids, inflammatory biomarkers and fasting glucose. Those are a lot of the things that HCPs are really managing when they think about preventative care. Now you're getting that all from a single oral pill, but we can manufacture at scale.

    asked by Chris Schott · answered by Kenneth Custer

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    GLP-1 Franchise Dominance and Pipeline Expansion

    Eli Lilly's incretin franchise, Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued its impressive performance, driving significant revenue growth and market share gains. Mounjaro became the U.S. market leader in total type 2 diabetes incretin prescriptions in July, while Zepbound captured two-thirds of the branded anti-obesity market. The company also reported positive Phase III data for orforglipron in obesity, positioning it as a potential oral GLP-1 alternative, and for tirzepatide in cardiovascular outcomes, reinforcing its broad therapeutic potential. These advancements underscore Lilly's leadership in the cardiometabolic space and its commitment to expanding treatment options.

    02

    Manufacturing Capacity Ramp-Up

    To meet the surging demand for its incretin medicines, Lilly significantly ramped up its manufacturing capabilities. The company produced over 1.6 times the amount of salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024, with a substantial contribution from its new Research Triangle Park facility. Management expects to further increase production to at least 1.8 times the H2 2024 levels in the second half of 2025 and plans to announce locations for two new U.S. manufacturing facilities later this quarter. This aggressive expansion aims to alleviate supply constraints and support global access.

    03

    Strategic Acquisitions and R&D Progress

    Lilly bolstered its pipeline through strategic business development, acquiring SiteOne Therapeutics to enhance its pain portfolio with a clinical-stage non-opioid program, and Verve Therapeutics for genetic medicines targeting cardiovascular disease. The company also initiated new Phase I and Phase II trials for several molecules, including a glucose-sensing insulin and a next-generation triple agonist, while discontinuing some earlier-stage programs. This balanced approach reflects a focus on high-potential assets and efficient pipeline management.

    04

    Drug Pricing Reform and Direct-to-Consumer Model

    Management addressed the ongoing drug pricing reform discussions, advocating for a rebalancing of pricing between the U.S. and Europe and highlighting the need to deflate the 'gross-to-net bubble' in the U.S. Lilly emphasized its direct-to-consumer model, LillyDirect, which offers discounted access to medicines like Zepbound (over 50% off list price) and aims to provide price transparency. This model serves as a hedge against coverage gaps and aligns with efforts to lower patient costs, particularly for chronic conditions like obesity.

    05

    Regional Performance and Product Uptake

    U.S. revenue growth of 38% was driven by strong volume, though partially offset by an 8% price decline. International markets showed robust growth, with Europe up 77% in constant currency, Japan up 7%, and China up 19%, all primarily fueled by Mounjaro. Ebglyss continued strong performance in atopic dermatitis with nearly doubled total prescriptions since Q1, and Omvoh made progress in Crohn's disease. Verzenio maintained its leadership in early breast cancer, with global sales up 12%, and Kisunla saw steady launch trajectory in Alzheimer's with approvals in 13 countries outside the U.S.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.