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    MAR
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ MAR

    Feb 11, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Marriott Q4 FY24 — Strong RevPAR Growth and Record Development Pipeline

    Marriott concluded FY24 with robust RevPAR growth and significant net room expansion, driven by strong demand across all customer segments and regions. The company is focused on strategic investments in technology and portfolio expansion, while maintaining a disciplined capital allocation approach and returning substantial value to shareholders. Despite some anticipated headwinds in residential branding fees and FX for 2025, the underlying business momentum remains solid.

    Highlights

    5
    • Full year 2024 net rooms growth of 6.8%.

    • Fourth quarter worldwide RevPAR increased 5%, with ADR up 3% and occupancy up 1 percentage point.

    • Global group revenues are pacing up 6% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

    • Added over 31 million new Marriott Bonvoy members, reaching nearly 228 million members at year-end.

    • Returned over $4.4 billion to shareholders in 2024 and expect approximately $4 billion in 2025.

    Concerns

    5
    • Incentive management fees (IMF) decreased year-over-year due to declines in Greater China and U.S. & Canada (Maui impact).

    • Residential branding fees are expected to decline nearly 50% in 2025 due to timing of unit sales.

    • FX is expected to negatively impact 2025 gross fees by roughly $25 million.

    • The 2025 effective tax rate is expected to be around 26%, up from under 25% in 2024.

    • Greater China RevPAR is anticipated to be roughly flat year-over-year in 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    21
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full year 2025 global RevPAR growth
    2% to 4%
    high materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 net rooms growth
    4% to 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 gross fees
    4% to 6% to around $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 co-brand credit card fee growth
    couple of hundred basis points lower than the nearly 10% growth in '24
    low materiality
    Medium
    Full year 2025 residential branding fees
    decline nearly 50%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 timeshare fees
    around $110 million
    low materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 FX impact on gross fees
    negatively impact by roughly $25 million
    low materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 owned, leased and other revenues, net of expenses
    $345 million to $355 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 G&A expense
    decline 8% to 10% to $965 million to $985 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA
    increase between 6% and 9% to roughly $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS
    $9.82 to $10.19
    high materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 effective tax rate
    around 26%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 investment spending
    $1 billion to $1.1 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Full year 2025 capital returns
    approximately $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 global RevPAR
    increase 3% to 4%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 gross fees
    increase 2% to 3.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2025 owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses
    around $55 million
    low materiality
    High
    Net rooms growth CAGR
    5% to 5.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Global group revenues pacing
    up 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Global group revenues pacing
    up 10%
    medium materiality
    High
    RevPAR in Greater China
    roughly flat year-over-year
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    7
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Worldwide
    Fourth quarter RevPAR increase, with strength across all customer segments.
    ADR: +3%Occupancy: +1 percentage point
    5%
    U.S. and Canada
    Best quarterly RevPAR growth for the year, primarily driven by higher ADR.
    4%
    International
    RevPAR increase driven by ADR and occupancy gains.
    ADR: +4%Occupancy: +2 percentage points
    7%
    APAC
    Led by strong growth in Japan, India, and Thailand, aided by cross-border demand from Greater China.
    12.5%
    EMEA
    Broad-based growth across the region, led by strong leisure demand.
    8%
    Greater China
    RevPAR decline, but better than prior expectations, benefiting from expanded visa-free transit and holiday demand. Tier 1 cities, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan saw positive growth.
    -2%
    Hainan Island
    Largest RevPAR decline in Q4, impacted by weak domestic leisure demand. Showed sequential improvement from -24% in Q3.
    -16%

    Operational metrics

    39
    Net rooms growth
    6.8%
    FY24
    Global RevPAR growth
    >4%
    FY24
    Rooms in pipeline
    >577,000
    year-end 2024
    Deals signed
    >1,200
    2024
    Rooms in portfolio
    >1.7 million
    year-end 2024

    Across 144 countries and territories.

    Conversions contribution to signings
    ~1/3
    2024
    Conversions contribution to openings
    >half
    2024
    Mid-scale properties (open & pipeline)
    >300
    year-end 2024

    Includes Four Points Flex, StudioRes, and City Express by Marriott.

    Marriott Bonvoy members
    nearly 228 million
    year-end 2024
    New Bonvoy members added
    >31 million
    2024
    Bonvoy member penetration
    73%
    Q4 FY24

    Achieved historic highs.

    Bonvoy member penetration
    66%
    Q4 FY24

    Achieved historic highs.

    Co-brand credit card fees growth
    nearly 10%
    2024

    Driven by a strong increase in global card spend.

    Marriott Bonvoy app downloads growth
    nearly 30%YoY
    2024
    Gross fee revenues
    $1.3 billion+7%
    Q4 FY24

    Primarily due to higher RevPAR, room additions, 13% increase in credit card fees, and near doubling of residential branding fees.

    G&A
    $289 million-12%
    Q4 FY24

    Primarily due to lower administrative bad debt and litigation expenses.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.29 billion+7%
    Q4 FY24
    Hotel level profit margins
    +110
    Q4 FY24

    Helped by continued productivity improvements.

    Hotel level profit margins
    +40
    FY24

    Helped by continued productivity improvements.

    Gross fees growth
    +7%
    FY24
    Adjusted EBITDA growth
    +7%
    FY24
    Capital returned to shareholders
    >$4.4 billion
    FY24

    Through a combination of dividends and buybacks.

    Loyalty charge-out rates reduction
    roughly 5%
    announced Dec
    RevPAR sensitivity (1pp change)
    ~$50M-$60M
    FY25
    RevPAR sensitivity (1pp change)
    ~$5M
    FY25
    Above property savings
    $80 million to $90 million
    2025

    From enterprise-wide initiative to enhance effectiveness and efficiency.

    Core cash tax rate
    low 20s
    anticipated
    Investment spending breakdown
    1/3
    2025
    Investment spending breakdown
    1/3
    2025
    Investment spending breakdown
    1/3
    2025
    Owned/leased investment (Barbados)
    ~$100 million
    2025

    Part of the higher than normal investment in owned, leased properties.

    Key money investment per deal
    down
    2019 vs 2024

    Compared to pre-pandemic levels.

    Luxury and resort hotels RevPAR growth
    6%
    Q4 FY24

    Encouraging performance.

    Business transient recovery
    recovered to 2019 levels
    current

    Small- and medium-sized businesses came back faster; large corporates still behind 2019 levels.

    Occupancy (global system)
    higher than 2019 levels
    current

    Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday occupancy has not recovered, while other nights are higher.

    Cross-border guests percentage
    higher than pre-COVID
    2024
    Hospitality loans in CRE portfolios
    best-performing sector
    current

    According to lenders.

    New build construction starts share
    leading share
    2024
    Pipeline in upper upscale and luxury
    40%
    current

    Represents 40% of the total pipeline.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Comparable sales comps5%%
    Group booking pace booking window6%%
    Net unit growth development pipeline6.8%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Global group revenues pacing6%end of 2024

    up

    For 2025, on increases in both room nights and average daily rate.

    Global group revenues pacing10%end of 2024

    up

    For 2026, on increases in both room nights and average daily rate.

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Outdoor-focused collectionlaunch
    Luminara (third superyacht)launch

    Deals & partnerships

    6
    MGMAgreement to add rooms to Marriott's system

    Part of net rooms growth for 2024.

    SonderAgreement to add rooms to Marriott's system

    Part of net rooms growth for 2024.

    Postcard Cabins and TrailFounding deals for an outdoor-focused collection

    Part of Marriott's expansion into nontraditional lodging space.

    JPMorgan Chase and American ExpressCo-brand credit card relationshipsmultiyear agreements

    Largely domestic relationships, contributing to nearly 10% growth in co-brand credit card fees in 2024.

    Local banksCo-brand credit card relationships

    11 international relationships, contributing to co-brand credit card fee growth.

    Sheraton ChicagoPurchase of the Sheraton Chicago hotel

    Marriott is now the owner of the Sheraton Chicago and will evaluate its capital needs.

    Risks & headwinds

    10
    Financing for new constructioncurrent

    particularly challenging

    Mitigation: Banks show preference for deals associated with strong brands and experienced players like Marriott; slow and steady improvement in lending environment expected.

    Incentive management fees (IMF) decline in Greater ChinaQ1 FY25 and FY25

    decline

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated, but management notes long-term bullishness on Greater China.

    Incentive management fees (IMF) decline in U.S. & CanadaQ1 FY25 and FY25

    decline

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated, but attributed to Maui fee recognition timing and certain properties undergoing renovations.

    Residential branding fees declineFY25

    nearly 50%

    Mitigation: Solely due to timing of unit sales; expected to 'pop back up' by 2026.

    FX impact on gross feesFY25

    negative $25 million

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated.

    Effective tax rate increaseFY25

    around 26% (up from under 25%)

    Mitigation: Reflects certain international tax rate changes; core cash tax rate anticipated to remain in low 20s percent range.

    Greater China RevPARFY25

    roughly flat year-over-year

    Mitigation: Management is long-term bullish, seeing record deal volume despite short-term operating weakness.

    Weak domestic leisure demand in Hainan IslandQ4 FY24

    largest RevPAR decline

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated, but noted sequential improvement in Q4.

    Macroeconomic picture impacting leisure businessongoing

    not quantified

    Mitigation: Management will be watching closely.

    Regulatory uncertainty (Basel III) impacting lendingongoing

    not quantified

    Mitigation: Slow and steady improvement in lending environment expected, barring significant regulatory change.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Greater China RevPAR performance

    Next quarter (Q1 FY25)
    Current-2% in Q4 FY24, roughly flat expected for FY25
    TargetImprovement from flat, especially outside Tier 1 cities

    Why it matters

    Management is long-term bullish but short-term weakness persists; any signs of broader recovery beyond Tier 1 cities would be significant for overall international RevPAR.

    We currently anticipate RevPAR in Greater China to be roughly flat year-over-year.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Update on the cost transformation and efficiency program, areas of focus, and response from owners/internally.

    Management noted internal energy and enthusiasm from owners for streamlined decision-making, particularly in continent teams, expecting improved relationships with the owner and franchisee community.

    I think most of my responses are going to be a little more qualitative where I will tell you internally, I think there is energy across the enterprise, about how streamlined our decision-making will be as a result of this, particularly in the field.

    asked by Shaun Kelley · answered by Anthony Capuano

    2 min read8 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q4 2024 Performance Highlights

    Worldwide RevPAR increased 5% in Q4, driven by a 3% rise in ADR and a 1 percentage point gain in occupancy. The U.S. and Canada saw its best quarterly RevPAR growth for the year, up over 4%, primarily from ADR. International RevPAR rose over 7%, with APAC up 12.5% and EMEA up 8%. Greater China RevPAR declined 2%, which was better than prior expectations.

    02

    Customer Segment Trends

    Leisure RevPAR was the fastest-growing segment in Q4, up 6% globally and 4% in the U.S. and Canada, driven by gains in both room nights and ADR. Business transient📎 RevPAR rose 3% globally and 4% in the U.S. and Canada, primarily driven by ADR. Group RevPAR increased 3%, its lowest growth quarter of the year, due to fewer events around the U.S. election and a decline in Greater China.

    03

    Development and Pipeline

    Marriott achieved 6.8% net rooms growth in 2024, helped by the addition of approximately 38,000 rooms from MGM and 9,000 rooms from Sonder. Conversions were a significant driver, contributing about one-third of signings and over half of openings. The company ended the year with over 577,000 rooms in its pipeline, following a record of over 1,200 deals signed.

    04

    Mid-Scale and Luxury Portfolio Expansion

    The mid-scale tier, including Four Points Flex, StudioRes, and City Express by Marriott, now boasts over 300 open and pipeline properties, just 1.5 years after its entry. Marriott also expanded its luxury portfolio with notable openings such as the St. Regis on the Bund in Shanghai and Ws in Prague and Sao Paulo, alongside plans for an outdoor-focused collection.

    05

    Marriott Bonvoy Growth and Digital Engagement

    The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program added over 31 million new members in 2024, reaching nearly 228 million members by year-end. Member penetration achieved historic highs in Q4, at 73% in the U.S. and 66% globally. Co-brand credit card fees rose nearly 10% in 2024 due to a strong increase in global card spend, and Marriott Bonvoy app downloads increased nearly 30% year-over-year.

    06

    Digital Transformation and Technology Investment

    Marriott is undertaking a multi-year digital transformation of its property management, reservations, and loyalty systems, with elements expected to begin rolling out later in 2025. This investment aims to streamline decision-making, enhance associate efficiency, improve guest experience, and create revenue upside for owners by facilitating broader travel planning and cross-category shopping.

    07

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    In 2024, Marriott returned over $4.4 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks. The company expects to return approximately $4 billion in 2025, maintaining its commitment to an investment-grade rating and investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value.

    08

    Owned and Leased Portfolio Strategy

    Investment spending in 2025 includes above-historical levels for owned and leased properties, with about half driven by the completion of renovations on the elegant portfolio in Barbados. Marriott expects to sell the elegant portfolio after renovations are complete, subject to long-term contracts to remain in its system.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.