Why reaffirm guidance after a strong Q1, details on reinvestment, and any parameters for strong 2027 EPS growth.

Luca explained that while Q1 was ahead, full-year guidance was reaffirmed due to new headwinds from the Middle East crisis (extra costs) and a decision to reinvest potential upside back into the business to drive momentum towards "strong 2027 EPS growth." “if EPS upside materializes, we would like -- most likely to invest it back in the business and really continue momentum ahead of clearly what we committed to, which is a strong 2027 EPS growth.”

Update on the competitive landscape in Europe given cocoa volatility and outlook for the rest of the year.

Dirk stated that the situation in Europe has calmed down, with customer negotiations going well and no significant price movements expected as the industry awaits the main cocoa crop. The company's chocolate business had a strong Easter and is seeing improving share trends and sequential volume improvement. “overall, I would say our business in the chocolate category is off to a good start in Europe. And that, I think, has sort of calm down the situation a little bit.”

What is the company's assessment of the cocoa market given recent price fluctuations.

Luca stated that fundamentally, nothing has changed in the cocoa market, with supply looking positive. The recent price increase was due to the industry extending coverage (average 10 months). He believes $2,500 is a fair representation, and a lower level might be ahead due to expected surplus and subdued demand in Europe. “I think you know that supply, particularly out of Latin America and other places that are not the Ivory Coast of Ghana, the supply is quite positive.”

MDLZ

Mondelez (MDLZ) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Consumer Staples· Apr 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Mondelez Q1 FY26 – Strong Emerging Markets & Reaffirmed Guidance

Mondelez delivered a strong Q1 FY26, driven by robust performance in emerging markets and improving trends in developed markets, particularly Europe. Despite exceeding expectations, the company reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance, citing new headwinds from the Middle East crisis and a strategic decision to reinvest potential upside back into the business to fuel future growth, especially towards a strong FY27 EPS. The U.S. consumer remains cautious, but North America expects sequential improvement in H2.

Highlights

Emerging markets grew 6.3% in Q1, with volume mix up 0.5% (almost 1% excluding Argentina).
India achieved strong double-digit growth in Q1 in chocolate and biscuits, including a successful Biscoff launch.
Developed markets showed improving performance, with European chocolate seeing share improvements and U.S. biscuit experiencing a positive inflection in March.
Supply chain productivity delivered year-on-year benefits, contributing to gross margin upside despite inventory phasing headwinds.
North American business is expected to see sequential improvement and volume/revenue inflection in H2, driven by share gains in savory (Ritz), strong candy performance (Sour Patch Kids), and growth in ventures (Tate's, Clif, Perfect Bar).

Concerns

Full-year EPS guidance was reaffirmed despite a strong Q1, due to new extra costs stemming from the Middle East crisis impacting profitability.
U.S. consumer confidence remains low and is expected to further deteriorate, leading to continued affordability concerns and soft snacking categories.
Oreo's limited-time offer in Q1 did not perform as well as last year's, requiring strong plans for improvement.

Guidance & targets

Category	Target	Timeline	Confidence
Full-year EPS	in line with prior guidance (reaffirmed) high materiality	FY26 · 2026	High
EPS growth	strong growth high materiality	FY27 · 2027	High

Segment performance

Segment	Revenue	YoY	QoQ	Margin
Emerging Markets Strong performance, broad-based across categories and geographies. China grew mid-single digit, India double-digit, Brazil high single-digit. Volume mix growth: 0.5%Volume mix growth (ex-Argentina): almost 1%	—	6.3%	—	—
North America Driven by momentum in growth channels. Gained share in crackers (Ritz), candy (Sour Patch Kids), and ventures (Perfect Bar, Hu, Tate's, Clif). Oreo had a less successful limited-time offer. Expected sequential improvement in H2. Biscuit value growth (total U.S. market): 0.3%Biscuit value growth (Walmart, value, club channels): over 4%	—	slightly positive	—	—
Europe Good start to the year, retailer negotiations complete and in line with planning. Strong Easter season and Biscoff partnership performance. Chocolate share trends: improvingVolume trends: improving sequentially	—	—	—	—
Australia and New Zealand Driven by strong Easter and successful Biscoff launch. Share gains: very strong	—	very strong growth	—	—
China Strong Chinese New Year, Evirth acquisition performing well. Evirth (cakes and pastries) growth: high single-digit	—	mid-single digit	—	5% profit growth
India Strong Q1 in chocolate and biscuits, successful Biscoff launch. Benefited from GST change.	—	strong double-digit growth	—	—
Brazil Strong execution across biscuits, chocolate, gum, and candy.	—	high single digit	—	—
Mexico Good performance in gum, biscuits, chocolate, and meals, but softness in candy and powdered beverages.	—	flat	—	—
Canada Hopeful for continued growth.	—	terrific Q1	—	—

Product announcements

Product	Type	Timeline
Biscoff biscuits	launch	Q1 FY26
Milka Croissant	launch	Q1 FY26
7Days	expansion	Q1 FY26
Oreo cakes	launch	Q1 FY26
Cadbury & More	launch	Q1 FY26
Hu (vegan chocolate brand)	launch	Q1 FY26
Ritz Drizzled	launch	Q1 FY26
Builders bar (low sugar)	launch	Q1 FY26
Perfect Bar (20 grams protein)	launch	Q1 FY26
Oreo (gluten-free)	launch	Q1 FY26
Oreo (zero added sugar)	launch	Q1 FY26

Deals & partnerships

Biscoff (Lotus Bakeries) partnership coming years

Collaboration involves launching Biscoff biscuits in emerging markets and incorporating Biscoff cream/crumbs into chocolate ranges.

Evirth acquisition

Acquisition in cakes and pastries in China, contributing to growth and increased distribution.

Capital programs

North America Biscuit Supply Chain Modernization underway

Benefit:improve productivity in underperforming plants; bring co-manufactured products in-house; invest in packaging capabilities for different pack sizes; automate DSD distribution centers and branches for faster fulfillment and cost reduction

While 60% of the network is state-of-the-art, some plants have high waste and low productivity. The program aims to simplify lines, play to plant strengths, and increase flexibility.

Risks & headwinds

Middle East crisis remainder of FY26

extra cost

Mitigation:team is managing that situation quite well, finding alternative routes to produce our brands and to deliver our brands

Oil cost impact remainder of FY26

little bit of an impact on the profitability

Mitigation:covered for the year (but some regulated markets do not allow protection)

U.S. consumer confidence deterioration ongoing

quite low

Mitigation:Increasing brand reinvestments, sharpening PPA (price points), focusing on growth channels and innovations.

Fragile consumer confidence in Europe ongoing

stable, but it's fragile

Mitigation:Monitoring energy prices and potential inflation effects from Middle East conflict.

Q&A highlights

Seeking more detail on key drivers and climate in emerging markets and improvements in developed markets, particularly Europe chocolate and U.S. biscuit.

Dirk detailed strong emerging markets growth (6.3% in Q1, 0.5% volume mix up) driven by India, China, Brazil, and successful launches like Biscoff. Developed markets showed improving performance, with Europe's chocolate business off to a good start post-Easter and U.S. North America seeing slightly positive net revenue growth in Q1, with plans for gradual improvement.

“We are pleased with our improving performance in the developed markets. It's in line, maybe even slightly better than our expectations.”

asked by Andrew Lazar · answered by Dirk Van de Put

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Developed Markets Performance

Europe showed stable consumer confidence and strong snacking value growth, with successful retailer negotiations and a robust Easter season. Chocolate in Australia and New Zealand also saw very strong growth, boosted by Easter and the Biscoff launch. The U.S. market, however, faces low consumer confidence and affordability concerns, with biscuit value being flattish, though growth is seen in value club channels and premium segments.

Emerging Markets Strength

Emerging markets, representing 40% of the business, delivered 6.3% growth in Q1, with volume mix up 0.5% (nearly 1% excluding Argentina). India achieved strong double-digit growth in chocolate and biscuits, driven by a successful Biscoff launch and GST changes. China saw mid-single-digit growth, and Brazil reported high single-digit growth across categories.

Innovation Strategy

The company is focusing on fewer, bigger bets in innovation, including well-being acceleration (protein/fiber, gluten-free, zero added sugar), expansion in cakes and pastries (Milka Croissant, 7Days in Brazil, Oreo cakes), premium indulgent chocolate (Toblerone, Cadbury & More, Hu), and the Biscoff partnership. These initiatives aim to meet evolving consumer demands and drive growth.

Cocoa Market Dynamics

While cocoa prices saw a recent increase from their lowest levels, this was primarily due to the industry extending coverage. Fundamentally, the market is expected to remain in surplus, with current prices around $2,500 representing a fair value. The mid-crop was positive, and next year's crop outlook is also encouraging, suggesting potential for lower levels ahead.

North American Business Improvement

Despite a soft overall U.S. consumer environment, the North American business anticipates sequential improvement in volume and revenue in the second half of the year. This is driven by strong share gains in savory (Ritz), double-digit growth in candy (Sour Patch Kids), and significant contributions from ventures like Tate's and Clif bars, along with strategic investments in brand and pricing.

Supply Chain Modernization

The company is modernizing its North American biscuit supply chain, focusing on improving productivity in underperforming plants, bringing co-manufactured products in-house, and investing in packaging capabilities for different pack sizes (e.g., club formats, multipacks). Automation and AI fulfillment centers are also being implemented in the DSD network to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.