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    MDT
    Earnings call· Jan 2025(Q3 FY25)

    Medtronic plc MDT

    Feb 18, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Medtronic Q3 FY25 — Strong PFA Growth and Earnings Leverage

    Medtronic delivered its ninth consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit revenue growth, driven by strong performances in Cardiac Ablation Solutions, Neuromodulation, and Diabetes. The company demonstrated significant earnings leverage with improved gross and operating margins, and expects accelerated revenue and EPS growth in Q4 FY25. Strategic investments in key growth drivers like Renal Denervation and Hugo robotics are poised to drive future expansion, despite temporary distributor dynamics impacting U.S. Surgical.

    Highlights

    5
    • Cardiac Ablation Solutions grew 22%, driven by the PFA portfolio.

    • Leadless pacing, Neuromodulation, and Diabetes all grew double digits.

    • Adjusted EPS was $1.39, up 6.9%, beating consensus and guidance midpoint by $0.03.

    • Adjusted gross margin improved by 50 basis points year-over-year to 66.6%.

    • Adjusted operating margin expanded by 100 basis points year-over-year to 26.2%.

    Concerns

    2
    • U.S. Surgical performance was impacted by a couple of hundred basis points due to distributors destocking inventory.

    • Peripheral Vascular experienced a low-single-digit decline due to China VBP issues.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    FY25 Organic Revenue Growth
    4.75% to 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 FY25 Organic Revenue Growth
    mid-single-digit revenue growth
    high materiality
    High
    FY25 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS
    $5.44 to $5.50
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 FY25 Adjusted EPS Growth
    high single-digit
    high materiality
    High
    FY25 FX Impact on Revenue
    $275 million to $325 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 FY25 FX Impact on Revenue
    $125 million to $175 million
    medium materiality
    High
    FY26 FX Impact on EPS
    significantly smaller impact than FY25
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Renal Denervation Medicare Coverage
    in place within the next 8 months
    high materiality
    High
    Hugo FDA Submission (Urology)
    by the end of next month
    medium materiality
    High
    Hugo LigaSure Integration
    later this calendar year
    low materiality
    High
    Simplera Sync FDA Approval (U.S.)
    submitted for FDA approval
    medium materiality
    Medium
    780G Expanded Labeling (Type 2 Diabetes) FDA Filing
    file this with the FDA here in the first half of the calendar year
    medium materiality
    High
    Hugo Growth Driver for Surgical Business
    growth driver
    medium materiality
    High
    Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) Revenue
    $2 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    13
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Cardiovascular Portfolio
    Overall portfolio growth. Expected to meaningfully accelerate in the quarters ahead, starting with Q4, driven by CAS and RDN.
    mid-single digits
    Cardiac Ablation Solutions
    Powered by PFA portfolio (Affera and PulseSelect). Expects to accelerate growth rate and deliver another strong double-digit growth quarter in Q4. Supply and demand continue to accelerate.
    PFA platforms: Affera, PulseSelectRevenue per case: increasing with AfferaFY25 revenue: $1 billion (expected)Line of sight revenue: $2 billion (shorter term)
    22%
    Structural Heart (excluding Congenital)
    Solidified business with product improvements, clinical data, and strong execution. Upcoming data catalysts include 5-year low-risk data (ACC) and 2-year SMART trial data (spring).
    Evolut FX+ TAVR system adoption: good (U.S.), very good start (international launch)
    high single digits
    Cardiac Pacing Therapies
    Grew upper single digits for 10 quarters in a row. Micra franchise continues to set the standard.
    Micra leadless pacemaker franchise growth: 24%Conduction system pacing technology: strong performance
    9%
    Neuroscience Portfolio
    Overall portfolio growth.
    mid-single digits
    Cranial & Spinal Technologies
    Strong quarter, outperforming the market. Driven by differentiated enabling technology (AI-driven pre-op planning, imaging, robotics, navigation, powered surgical instruments) and AiBLE ecosystem. Expects sustained above-market growth.
    U.S. market share gain: 1 point
    5% global
    Neuromodulation
    Well above market, driven by game-changing innovation and strong commercial execution with closed-loop sensing technology (Inceptiv SCS, Percept DBS). Expects continued above-market growth.
    Pain Stim growth: 12% (17% U.S.)Brain Modulation growth: 15% (26% U.S.)
    13%
    Surgical (U.S.)
    Experienced a temporary change in U.S. distributor buying patterns (destocking inventory). End-customer purchases direct and through distributors stable. Expects resolution by Q1 FY26. Robotics (Hugo) is a headwind in the U.S. currently.
    Impact from distributor buying patterns: ~200 basis points reduction in Q3 growth
    Surgical (ex-U.S.)
    Strong performance outside the U.S. Gaining share with LigaSure/Advanced Energy products globally.
    Emerging markets growth: high single-digit
    mid-single-digit
    Diabetes
    Driven by market shift to AID systems and strength of MiniMed 780G. Simplera Sync sensor receiving excellent user feedback in Europe.
    Consecutive quarters of double-digit growth: 5CGM attachment rates: very highConsumables growth: strong
    10%
    International Markets
    Stronger overall growth.
    Japan growth: high single-digit
    5%
    Emerging Markets
    Strong growth across various regions.
    India growth: high teensEastern Europe growth: mid-teensSoutheast Asia and Middle East & Africa growth: low double-digit
    high single digits
    Peripheral Vascular
    Impacted by China VBP issues, creating volatility in the China line.
    low-single-digit decline

    Operational metrics

    15
    Organic Revenue Growth
    4.1%
    Q3 FY25

    Company-wide organic revenue growth.

    Adjusted EPS
    $1.39up 6.9% YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Exceeded consensus and midpoint of guidance by $0.03. Driven by better-than-expected operating profit on stronger gross margins and a better-than-expected tax rate.

    Adjusted Gross Margin
    66.6%up 50 bps YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Ahead of expectations. Second half gross margins expected to be up on both constant currency and AFX basis.

    Adjusted Operating Margin
    26.2%up 100 bps YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Ahead of expectations. Organization focused on improving margins over time.

    FX Impact on Revenue
    $275M to $325M
    FY25

    Based on recent rates. Includes $125M to $175M in Q4.

    FX Impact on EPS
    5-point impact
    FY25

    Factors into the FY25 EPS guidance. Significantly smaller impact expected in FY26.

    SG&A Growth vs Sales Growth
    below sales
    current and future

    Focus on disciplined pricing and realizing benefits of scale to drive leveraged earnings.

    COGS Productivity
    more than doubling
    current

    Underlying COGS productivity contributing to leveraged earnings.

    PFA Market Size
    $9 billiongrowing in the high teens
    current

    Market for PFA is super strong and will continue.

    Hypertension Patient Population (U.S.)
    nearly half of U.S. adults1 in 4 uncontrolled
    current

    Large patient population with unmet need for uncontrolled high blood pressure.

    Micra Leadless Pacemaker Franchise Age
    10th anniversary
    April 2025

    Marks 10 years since first CE Mark.

    Hugo Procedure Volume Growth
    more than doubledyear-over-year
    Q3 FY25

    Utilization continues to increase in international markets.

    Hugo Markets
    over 25
    current

    Number of markets where Hugo is present.

    Hugo External Publications
    over 170
    current

    Independent publications on Hugo's performance and utility, broadly comparable to market leader.

    Medtronic Total Revenue Level
    $33 billion
    current

    Reference point for Hugo's future impact as a growth driver at the company level.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    System utilizationimproving
    New product launch ramp$1 billionUSD
    Procedure volume growthmore than doubled
    Segment franchise organic growth22%%
    Consumables recurring revenue mixstrong growth
    Sales force commercial capacity buildhundredsmappers
    Indicated addressable patient populationnearly half of U.S. adults
    Pivotal trial clinical evidence milestones5-year low-risk data

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    BrainSense Adaptive DBSmilestone
    ICG fluorescent imagingupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Siemens HealthineersExpanded into pre- and post-op imaging

    Partnership to expand into pre- and post-op imaging, enhancing the AiBLE ecosystem for Cranial & Spinal Technologies.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    U.S. Surgical distributor destockingQ3 FY25, expected to resolve as we start fiscal '26 (Q1 FY26)

    couple of hundred basis point impact on our Surgical performance

    Mitigation: Distributors reaching target inventory levels; end-customer purchases stable; no share loss observed.

    Competitive pressures in stapling franchiseongoing

    null

    Mitigation: Offsetting by winning share with LigaSure/Advanced Energy products globally and driving high single-digit growth in emerging markets.

    Robotics in U.S. as a headwindcurrent

    null

    Mitigation: Hugo expected to become a growth driver for Surgical in FY26 and for Medtronic in the midterm.

    China VBP issues impacting Peripheral VascularQ3 FY25, working its way out

    low-single-digit decline for Peripheral Vascular

    Mitigation: Most VBP issues worked through, overall doing well profitably in China despite volatility.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    U.S. Surgical Distributor Inventory Normalization

    as we start fiscal '26 (Q1 FY26)
    Currentcouple of hundred basis point impact on Q3 Surgical growth
    Targetresolution of destocking, normalized buying patterns

    Why it matters

    This temporary headwind📎 impacted Q3 Surgical performance; its resolution is key to the segment's recovery and overall company growth.

    We expect this to resolve as we start fiscal '26.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Is it fair to assume a mid-single-digit revenue growth and high single-digit EPS growth algorithm for FY26, similar to the Q4 exit rate?

    Management reiterated commitment to profitable growth and operating leverage, confirming the objective to maintain the long-range plan (LRP) of mid-single-digit revenue growth and high single-digit EPS growth. Formal FY26 guidance will be provided on the Q4 call.

    Yes, we'll give FY '26 guidance on our Q4 call. But yes, our objective is unchanged. We're committed to doing the things that we need to do to drive profitable growth and operating leverage at Medtronic. So as Gary pointed out in the commentary, we reiterated our guidance for this fiscal year of 4.75% to 5% organic revenue growth and high single-digit realized EPS growth in the back half of the year. And as we look into the future, we think that -- we're still committed to that LRP that you outlined.

    asked by Patrick Wood · answered by Geoffrey Martha

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Pulsed Field Ablation (PFA) Leadership

    Medtronic's Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) business grew 22%, driven by its PFA portfolio, including Affera and PulseSelect platforms. Affera is highlighted as a "workhorse platform" with integrated high-density mapping and both PF and RF capabilities, increasing revenue per case. The company expects rapid growth to continue, with CAS projected to be a $1 billion business this fiscal year and line of sight to $2 billion. Supply chain improvements, particularly from the new Galway factory, are supporting this demand.

    02

    Renal Denervation (RDN) Market Opportunity

    The company is poised to change the standard of care for uncontrolled hypertension with its Symplicity blood pressure procedure. A pivotal development occurred with CMS opening a national coverage analysis (NCA), expected to result in Medicare coverage within 8 months. This is anticipated to be an immediate and significant growth driver, addressing a massive unmet need in a patient population where current treatments are insufficient. International reimbursement efforts are ongoing, with China approval and France reimbursement established.

    03

    Robotics (Hugo) Progress and Milestones

    Medtronic is making significant progress with its Hugo soft tissue robotic platform, with procedure volume more than doubling year-over-year in international markets. Key milestones include an upcoming FDA submission for urology indications by the end of next month, completion of enrollment in Hernia and benign GYN studies, and FDA approval to initiate a GYN oncology IDE study. Feature enhancements like ICG fluorescent imaging and LigaSure vessel sealing technology are also being integrated, positioning Hugo as a growth driver for the surgical business in FY26 and for Medtronic in the midterm.

    04

    Neuromodulation Innovation

    The Neuromodulation segment grew 13%, driven by game-changing innovation in closed-loop sensing technology for both pain stimulation and brain modulation. The Inceptiv closed-loop spinal cord stimulator led to 17% U.S. growth in Pain Stim, while the Percept DBS systems, including the recently CE Mark cleared BrainSense Adaptive DBS for Parkinson's, drove 26% U.S. growth in Brain Modulation. These personalized, closed-loop systems are expected to drive continued above-market growth.

    05

    Diabetes Growth and Pipeline

    The Diabetes business achieved its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth (10%), primarily due to the market shift to AID systems and the strength of the MiniMed 780G system. High CGM attachment rates and strong consumables growth are noted. The Simplera Sync sensor, submitted for U.S. FDA approval, and integration with an Abbott-based sensor are expected to accelerate U.S. growth. The pipeline includes next-gen pumps, patch pumps, smart pens, algorithms, and expanded labeling for 780G for Type 2 diabetes, with an FDA filing expected in H1 CY25.

    06

    U.S. Surgical Distributor Dynamics

    U.S. Surgical performance was impacted by a temporary change in distributor buying patterns, reducing growth by approximately 200 basis points in Q3. This involved two large distributors reducing inventory levels to meet their own goals. Management expects this issue to resolve as distributors reach target inventory levels by Q1 FY26, emphasizing that end-customer purchases remain stable and no market share loss has occurred. The business is performing well outside the U.S., with mid-single-digit growth globally and high single-digit growth in emerging markets.

    07

    Cardiovascular Portfolio Strength

    The overall Cardiovascular portfolio grew mid-single digits, with strong performances in Cardiac Pacing Therapies (9% growth, 10 consecutive quarters of upper single-digit growth driven by Micra and conduction system pacing) and Structural Heart (high single-digit growth excluding congenital, with good adoption of Evolut FX+ TAVR system). Upcoming data catalysts for Evolut (5-year low-risk data at ACC, 2-year SMART trial data) are expected to further solidify this business.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.