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    MO
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    ALTRIA GROUP, INC. MO

    Apr 29, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Altria Q1 FY25 — on! Momentum Continues Amidst Illicit E-Vapor Challenges

    Altria's Q1 FY25 performance was marked by strong profitability in traditional tobacco and continued growth for its oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, despite a challenging environment. The company faces significant headwinds from the illicit e-vapor market, leading to the withdrawal of NJOY ACE and a substantial impairment charge. Management is focused on advocating for regulatory enforcement and developing a new e-vapor pipeline, while maintaining shareholder returns and navigating consumer economic pressures.

    Highlights

    5
    • Smokeable Products segment grew adjusted operating company's income (OCI) by 2.7%.

    • on! reported shipment volume grew over 39 million cans, representing 18% growth.

    • on! expanded its share of the oral tobacco category to 8.8%, an increase of 1.8 share points versus prior year.

    • Marlboro expanded its share of the premium segment by 0.1 share point to 59.3%.

    • Repurchased 5.7 million shares for $326 million, with $674 million remaining in the program.

    Concerns

    6
    • Domestic cigarette volumes declined by 13.7% (reported) and an estimated 12% (adjusted).

    • Estimated domestic cigarette industry volumes declined by 9% (adjusted).

    • Illicit e-vapor products are estimated to represent more than 60% of the e-vapor category.

    • NJOY ACE discontinued importation and shipments due to ITC exclusion order, resulting in an $873 million noncash impairment charge.

    • Marlboro retail share declined by 1 share point versus prior year and 0.3 share points sequentially.

    • Oral Tobacco Products segment retail share declined by 3.1 percentage points due to MST declines.

    Guidance & targets

    1
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted Diluted EPS
    $5.30 to $5.45
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Smokeable Products
    Segment performance supported by robust net price realization and Marlboro's strength in the premium segment, despite overall volume declines driven by illicit e-vapor and consumer economic pressures.
    Adjusted OCI growth: 2.7%Net price realization: 10.8%Reported domestic cigarette volumes decline: 13.7%Estimated adjusted domestic cigarette volumes decline: 12%Estimated adjusted domestic cigarette industry volumes decline: 9%Marlboro retail share decline: 1 share point YoYMarlboro retail share decline: 0.3 share points sequentiallyMarlboro share of premium segment: 59.3%Marlboro share of premium segment increase: 0.1 share pointDiscount cigarette segment growth: 1.8 share pointsCigar reported shipment volume decrease: 2.9%
    64.4%
    Oral Tobacco Products
    Strong adjusted OCI margins, with on! driving growth in the nicotine pouch category, but overall segment volumes and retail share impacted by lower MST volumes.
    Adjusted OCI: >$400MTotal segment reported shipment volume decrease: 5%Estimated adjusted segment volumes decline: 1%on! reported shipment volume: >39M canson! reported shipment volume growth: 18%on! share of oral tobacco category: 8.8%on! share of oral tobacco category increase: 1.8 share points YoYon! share of oral tobacco category increase: 0.1 share points sequentiallyon! share of nicotine pouch category: 17.9%on! share of nicotine pouch category increase: 0.5 share point YoYOral nicotine pouches share of oral tobacco category: nearly halfOral nicotine pouches share of oral tobacco category increase: 8.7 share pointsOral nicotine pouch industry volume increase: 10% (past 6 months)Segment retail share decline: 3.1 percentage points
    69.2%

    Operational metrics

    15
    Adjusted OCI Margin
    64.4%up 4.2 percentage points YoY
    Q1 FY25

    This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 10.8%.

    Adjusted OCI Margin
    69.2%down slightly YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Adjusted OCI margins remained strong at 69.2%, down slightly from a year ago.

    Net Price Realization
    10.8%
    Q1 FY25

    This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 10.8%.

    E-vapor Category Consumers
    >20Mup >2.6M YoY
    Q1 FY25

    At the end of the quarter, we estimate the e-vapor category included more than 20 million vapors, up over 2.6 million versus a year ago.

    Disposable Vapors
    ~14Mup ~4M YoY
    Q1 FY25

    During the same period, disposable vapors increased by an estimated 4 million to approximately 14 million.

    Illicit E-vapor Products Share
    >60%
    Q1 FY25

    We estimate that illicit e-vapor products now represent more than 60% of the category.

    on! Consumer Impressions
    >$200Mnearly 5x vs prior year
    Q1 FY25

    consumer impressions of on! grew by nearly 5x versus the prior year, exceeding $200 million in the first quarter.

    on! Brand Awareness
    >60%up 9 percentage points
    past 6 months

    awareness of the on! brand among current oral nicotine pouch consumers reached over 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points.

    Adjusted Equity Earnings from ABI
    $146Mdown 11.5% YoY
    Q1 FY25

    We recorded $146 million of adjusted equity earnings, down 11.5% versus the prior year. This decline was driven by a lower ownership interest compared to the year ago period, reflecting the sale of a portion of our ABI investment.

    Dividends Paid
    ~$1.7B
    Q1 FY25

    In the first quarter, we paid approximately $1.7 billion in dividends

    Shares Repurchased
    5.7M
    Q1 FY25

    and repurchased 5.7 million shares for $326 million.

    Share Repurchase Program Remaining Authorization
    $674M
    end of Q1 FY25

    At the end of the first quarter, we had $674 million remaining under our current share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by the end of the year.

    Total Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio
    2.1x
    March 31

    Our total debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of March 31 was 2.1x, in line with our target of approximately 2x.

    NJOY Goodwill Impairment Charge
    $873M
    Q1 FY25

    As a result, we performed an interim impairment assessment of the goodwill and recorded a noncash impairment charge of $873 million.

    MSA Settlement Payments
    down ~20%down ~$170M
    Q1 FY25

    The settlement payments in the quarter were down about 20% or $170 million. This was due to the expiration of the legal fund, which will continue to benefit the first three quarters of this year on a comparative basis.

    Industry KPIs

    12
    MetricValueDetails
    Net price realization10.8%%
    Cigarette category share1 share point declineshare points
    Cigarette shipment volume13.7% decline%
    Illicit trade enforcement>60%%
    Smoke free market footprint
    Smoke free consumer user count>20Mconsumers
    Productivity cost savings program
    Regulatory authorization pipeline
    Smoke free revenue and profitability
    New category contribution margin payback
    Smoke free reduced risk shipment volumes>39M canscans
    Nicotine pouch oral tobacco category dynamics8.8%%

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Challenging environment for traditional tobacco businessesQ1 FY25

    Domestic cigarette volumes declined by 13.7% (reported) and an estimated 12% (adjusted).

    Mitigation: Strength of Marlboro, robust net price realization, and effective use of RGM tools.

    Growth of illicit flavored disposable e-vapor marketOngoing

    Illicit e-vapor products now represent more than 60% of the category.

    Mitigation: Advocating for regulatory reforms, faster product authorizations, and enhanced enforcement; supporting state legislative remedies (state directories); engaging with Congress and administrative staff.

    Consumer economic pressure (inflation exceeding wage growth)Ongoing

    Cigarette industry volume declines remained elevated, partly due to... continued discretionary income pressures on consumers.

    Mitigation: PM USA uses RGM tools to manage Marlboro franchise, offering price relief at retail where needed.

    ITC exclusion order and cease and desist orders for NJOY ACEEffective March 31

    NJOY discontinued the importation of NJOY ACE and ceased shipments to wholesale. Noncash impairment charge of $873 million.

    Mitigation: NJOY intends to appeal ITC decision; working to finalize a product solution addressing patents; broadening NJOY's pipeline of innovative e-vapor products.

    Potential impact of increased tariffsOngoing

    Limited impact on our costs (predominantly U.S. supply chain, materials like tin/aluminum affected).

    Mitigation: Closely monitoring potential impact on consumers' purchasing behaviors; supply chain group looking at alternative suppliers; well-positioned to adjust.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    4

    Illicit e-vapor market enforcement

    Next quarter
    CurrentIllicit e-vapor products represent >60% of the category
    TargetIncreased enforcement actions and reduced illicit market share

    Why it matters

    Effective enforcement is crucial for creating a level playing field for authorized e-vapor products and supporting Altria's future e-vapor strategy.

    Our hope is with revenue dollars available to the government, there will be much more enforcement taking place at the borders. And maybe we're starting to see the green shoots of that a little bit with certain track downs at the borders.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How are macroeconomic pressures impacting consumers and contributing to cross-category movement, particularly to illicit e-vapor?

    Consumers are under cumulative inflationary pressure, and price is becoming a more prominent factor in cross-category movement to illicit e-vapor, although flavors remain the primary driver.

    It's the cumulative impact over time. And we are seeing, to your point, in the cross category, especially to illicit e-vapor, we're seeing pricing from a consumer perspective, move up. It's certainly not #1. Flavors are still #1 and the flexibility they have and the amount of choices they have in the marketplace being the #1 thing. But price is certainly moving up in that and is becoming a more prominent factor.

    asked by Matthew Smith · answered by William Gifford

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    on! Performance and Nicotine Pouch Category Growth

    on! continued strong momentum, growing reported shipment volume by 18% to over 39 million cans in Q1 FY25. Its share of the oral tobacco category reached 8.8% (+1.8 share points YoY) and 17.9% (+0.5 share points YoY) of the nicotine pouch category. This growth occurred despite increasing retail prices, demonstrating strengthening brand equity, supported by the 'It's On!' campaign which increased consumer impressions by nearly 5x to over $200 million. Awareness of the on! brand among current oral nicotine pouch consumers reached over 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points over the past 6 months.

    02

    Illicit E-Vapor Market and Enforcement Efforts

    The e-vapor category now includes over 20 million users, with disposable vapes increasing by an estimated 4 million to approximately 14 million. Illicit e-vapor products are estimated to represent over 60% of the category. Altria is actively advocating for regulatory reforms, faster product authorizations, and enhanced enforcement, supporting state directory legislation (2 states enacted, 21 pending) and state AG actions against illicit manufacturers and retailers. The company hopes for increased enforcement at borders with potential additional government revenue from tariffs.

    03

    NJOY ACE Withdrawal and Future E-Vapor Strategy

    Due to ITC exclusion and cease and desist orders effective March 31, NJOY discontinued importation and wholesale shipments of NJOY ACE, leading to an $873 million noncash impairment charge. Altria views this as an opportunity to refine its e-vapor portfolio, combining NJOY's talent with an evolved view of consumers to broaden its innovative e-vapor pipeline. The company aims to re-enter a properly regulated market, continues to challenge the ITC decision legally, and is close to having worked around all four infringed patents, with synthetic nicotine now on its radar.

    04

    Smokeable Products Segment Performance

    The Smokeable Products segment grew adjusted OCI by 2.7% with 64.4% margins, driven by 10.8% net price realization. Domestic cigarette volumes declined 13.7% (reported) and an estimated 12% (adjusted for calendar/inventory). Industry volumes declined an estimated 9% (adjusted), partly due to illicit e-vapor and consumer income pressures. Marlboro's retail share declined 1 share point YoY but expanded its premium segment share by 0.1 share point to 59.3%, demonstrating resilience amidst consumer pressure🌐.

    05

    Oral Tobacco Products Segment and MST Trends

    The Oral Tobacco Products segment delivered over $400 million in adjusted OCI with 69.2% margins. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 5% (adjusted -1%) as on! growth was offset by lower moist smokeless tobacco (MST) volumes. Segment retail share declined 3.1 percentage points due to MST brand declines not fully offset by on!'s growth. Copenhagen remains a significant contributor to OCI as a leading premium MST brand.

    06

    ABI Investment and Capital Returns

    Adjusted equity earnings from ABI were $146 million, down 11.5% due to a lower ownership interest from a prior sale. Altria continues to view its ABI stake as a financial investment. The company returned approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and repurchased $326 million in shares during the quarter. A remaining $674 million in the share repurchase program is expected to be completed by year-end, and the total debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.1x, in line with its target of approximately 2x.

    07

    Tariff Impact and Consumer Confidence

    Altria's guidance considers tariff impact🌐s, noting its predominantly U.S.-focused supply chain limits direct cost exposure, mainly affecting materials like tin and aluminum. Management is closely monitoring potential indirect impacts on consumer purchasing behavior due to cumulative inflation and tariffs, acknowledging early days💬 for assessing the full effect. The company believes it is well-positioned to adjust to market changes and is exploring alternative suppliers.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.