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    MPLX
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    MPLX LP MPLX

    Feb 4, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    MPLX Q4 FY24 — Record EBITDA, NGL Value Chain Expansion, and Increased Distribution

    MPLX delivered record Q4 adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow, driven by strong operational performance across its Crude Oil and Products Logistics and Natural Gas and NGL Services segments. The company announced a significant $2.5 billion investment in a Gulf Coast NGL fractionation and export terminal, extending its wellhead-to-water strategy. This, alongside a $2 billion capital expenditure outlook for 2025, underpins confidence in continued mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and further distribution increases.

    Highlights

    5
    • Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $6.8 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year.

    • Achieved a 7% compound annual growth rate for adjusted EBITDA since 2021, marking the fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit growth.

    • Increased quarterly distribution by 12.5%, the third consecutive year of 10%+ increases.

    • Returned nearly $4 billion of capital to unitholders in 2024, maintaining a strong 1.5x distribution coverage.

    • Announced a $2.5 billion Gulf Coast fractionation complex and export terminal project with expected mid-teens returns.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 capital expenditure
    $2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA growth rate
    mid-single-digit growth rate
    high materiality
    High
    Annual distribution increases
    annual distribution increases
    high materiality
    High
    Gulf Coast fractionation facilities in service
    2028 and 2029
    high materiality
    High
    LPG export terminal in service
    early 2028
    high materiality
    High
    Secretariat processing plant online
    Q4 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    BANGL Pipeline expansion to 250,000 bbl/d in service
    end of the first quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    BANGL mainline expansion to 300,000 bbl/d in service
    second half of 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Blackcomb and Rio Bravo pipelines in service
    second half of 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Harmon Creek III processing plant and fractionation capacity completion
    second half of 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Crude Oil and Products Logistics growth projects spend
    $250 million
    low materiality
    High
    Returns on 2025 growth capital
    mid-teen returns
    high materiality
    High
    Returns on Gulf Coast NGL project
    mid-teens returns
    high materiality
    High
    Gulf Coast NGL project EBITDA generation ramp
    ramp through the end of 2030
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Crude Oil and Products Logistics
    The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2023 was driven by higher rates and throughputs across systems. Pipeline volumes were up year-over-year primarily due to timing of refinery maintenance and increased Permian volumes. Terminal volumes were up year-over-year due to higher throughputs on the West Coast.
    Pipeline volumes: up YoYTerminal volumes: up YoY
    $60M increase in adjusted EBITDA
    Natural Gas and NGL Services
    The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2023 was driven by increased volumes, including contributions from increased ownership interest in existing joint ventures in the Utica and Permian basins, and growth from equity affiliates. Utica processing utilization is positioned for additional volumes with minimal capital spending in 2025. Marcellus utilization reflects the ramp of Harmon Creek II.
    Gathered volumes: 8% increase YoYProcessing volumes: 6% increase YoYUtica processing volumes: nearly 50% increase YoYUtica processing utilization: 70% (exited 2024)Marcellus processing utilization: 92% (Q4)Total fractionation volumes: 14% growth YoY
    $79M increase in adjusted EBITDA

    Operational metrics

    32
    Full-year adjusted EBITDA
    $6.8 billion8% increase YoY
    FY24

    Fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.

    Adjusted EBITDA CAGR
    7%
    2021-2024

    Compound annual growth rate since 2021.

    Capital investments
    $1.7 billion
    2024

    Invested in organic growth projects and strategic acquisitions of increased ownership interest in existing joint ventures.

    Capital investments (2024, clarified)
    $1.9 billion
    2024

    Total capital put to work in 2024, including traditional capital and small bolt-on M&A.

    Quarterly distribution increase
    12.5%
    November

    Marking the third consecutive year MPLX has increased its quarterly distribution by 10% or more.

    Capital returned to unitholders
    nearly $4 billion
    2024

    While maintaining distribution coverage of 1.5x.

    Distribution coverage
    1.5x
    2024

    Strong coverage given the stability of the business.

    Capital expenditure outlook
    $2 billion
    FY25

    85% of growth capital will be allocated to Natural Gas and NGL Services.

    Growth capital allocation to Natural Gas and NGL Services
    85%
    FY25

    Of the $2 billion capital expenditure outlook for 2025.

    Gulf Coast fractionation complex investment
    $2.5 billion
    long-term

    Investment in fractionation complex and export terminal, expected to generate mid-teens returns.

    Gulf Coast fractionation facility capacity
    two 150,000 bbl/d
    future

    Part of the new Gulf Coast fractionation complex.

    LPG export terminal capacity
    400,000 bbl/d
    future

    Located adjacent to MPC's Galveston Bay refinery.

    Permian gas processing capacity (after Secretariat)
    1.4 billion cubic feet per day
    Q4 2025

    Following the online of Secretariat processing plant.

    BANGL Pipeline expansion capacity
    250,000 bbl/d
    Q1 2025

    Expected to be in service by the end of the first quarter.

    BANGL mainline expansion capacity
    300,000 bbl/d
    H2 2026

    JV partners have sanctioned this expansion.

    Northeast gas processing capacity (after Harmon Creek III)
    8.1 billion cubic feet per day
    H2 2026

    Expected total following completion of Harmon Creek III.

    Northeast fractionation capacity (after Harmon Creek III)
    800,000 bbl/d
    H2 2026

    Expected total following completion of Harmon Creek III.

    Crude Oil and Products Logistics growth projects spend
    $250 million
    FY25

    Includes expanding crude gathering, butane blending, and other high-return investments.

    Total adjusted EBITDA
    $1.8 billion9% increase YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Total adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter.

    Distributable cash flow
    $1.5 billion7% increase YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Distributable cash flow for the fourth quarter.

    Capital returned to unitholders (Q4)
    $1 billion (distributions) + $100 million (unit repurchases)
    Q4 FY24

    Total capital returned to unitholders during the quarter.

    Senior notes retired
    $1.15 billion
    Q4 FY24

    Senior notes matured and retired in December.

    Cash balance
    $1.5 billion
    end of Q4 FY24

    Cash balance at the end of the quarter.

    Senior notes maturing
    $500 million
    February 2025

    Expected to be retired later this month.

    Leverage
    just above 3x
    Q4 FY24

    Low leverage, combined with strong coverage.

    Gas processing capacity (Secretariat)
    200 million cubic feet per day
    Q4 2025

    New processing plant under construction.

    Harmon Creek III processing plant capacity
    300 million cubic feet per day
    H2 2026

    New processing plant under construction.

    Harmon Creek III de-ethanizer capacity
    40,000 bbl/d
    H2 2026

    New fractionation capacity addition.

    Utica processing utilization
    70%
    exited 2024

    Positioned for additional volumes with minimal capital spending in 2025.

    Marcellus processing utilization
    92%
    Q4 FY24

    Reflecting the ramp of Harmon Creek II processing plant.

    Marcellus processing utilization (peak)
    95%
    prior to Harmon Creek II

    Historical peak utilization in the area.

    MPC annual distribution from MPLX
    $2.5 billion
    annually

    Illustrates the strategic value of MPLX within MPC's portfolio.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    FCF shareholder distributions$4 billionUSD
    Take or pay contract structureturn up agreements

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    ONEOK50-50 joint venture for LPG export terminal

    MPLX will build and operate the export terminal. Creates additional optionality and value to customers and a platform for future collaboration.

    ONEOKJoint venture for a bidirectional purity pipeline between Mont Belvieu and Texas City

    Enhances connectivity for the Gulf Coast NGL value chain. Storage in Mont Belvieu is existing cavern storage.

    MPCContract for MPC to purchase remaining LPG production from the new fractionation facilities

    Demonstrates the strength of the strategic relationship with MPC. Contracts will be 'turn up agreements'.

    Capital programs

    7
    Gulf Coast Fractionation Complex and Export Terminalannounced$2.5 billion

    Benefit: two 150,000 barrel per day fractionation facility and a 400,000 barrel per day LPG export terminal

    MPLX's fully integrated NGL value chain connects the Permian to the Gulf Coast. Expected to begin generating EBITDA when placed in service in 2028 and will ramp through the end of 2030.

    Secretariat Processing Plant (Permian)constructing

    Benefit: 200 million cubic feet per day processing plant

    Bringing Permian gas processing capacity to 1.4 billion cubic feet per day.

    BANGL Pipeline Expansion (250,000 bbl/d)progressing

    Benefit: expansion to 250,000 barrels per day

    Enabling additional NGLs to reach the Gulf Coast fractionation complex.

    BANGL Mainline Expansion (300,000 bbl/d)sanctioned

    Benefit: expansion of the mainline to 300,000 barrels per day

    JV partners have sanctioned the expansion.

    Blackcomb Pipelineprogressing

    Benefit: transport natural gas from the Permian to domestic and export markets along the Gulf Coast

    MPLX and its partners are progressing this pipeline.

    Rio Bravo Pipelineprogressing

    Benefit: transport natural gas from the Permian to domestic and export markets along the Gulf Coast

    MPLX and its partners are progressing this pipeline.

    Harmon Creek III Processing Plant and Fractionation (Marcellus)constructing

    Benefit: 300 million cubic feet per day processing plant and 40,000 barrel per day de-ethanizer

    Following completion, Northeast gas processing capacity will total 8.1 billion cubic feet per day and fractionation capacity 800,000 barrels per day.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    BANGL Pipeline expansion to 250,000 bbl/d

    end of the first quarter
    Currentprogressing
    Targetin service

    Why it matters

    Verifies the first phase of NGL pipeline expansion supporting the new Gulf Coast facilities.

    The BANGL Pipeline's expansion to 250,000 barrels per day is expected to be in service by the end of the first quarter

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What is the strategic rationale behind the NGL value chain expansion, particularly the JVs with ONEOK and MPC's offtake, and how does this impact confidence in returns?

    The NGL expansion continues the wellhead-to-water strategy, leveraging existing assets. The JV with ONEOK for the export terminal and purity pipeline enhances competitiveness through marketing and Mont Belvieu storage connectivity. MPC's contract for C3+ products removes commodity exposure for MPLX, contributing to high confidence in mid-teens returns and extended EBITDA growth.

    The JV for the export terminal and the purity pipeline include ONEOK. ONEOK will bring marketing and provide connectivity at Mont Belvieu storage and we think this improves the competitiveness of the terminal.

    asked by John Mackay · answered by Maryann Mannen

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Repositioning and Performance

    MPLX has revised its reporting segments to Crude Oil and Product Logistics and Natural Gas and NGL Services for better alignment with value chains and growth strategy, with prior periods recast for comparability. The company achieved record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion in 2024, an 8% increase year-over-year. This marks the fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit growth, with a 7% compound annual growth rate since 2021, driven by strong operational execution and increased volumes across both segments.

    02

    NGL Value Chain Expansion

    A significant announcement was the $2.5 billion investment in a Gulf Coast fractionation complex and export terminal, central to MPLX's wellhead-to-water NGL strategy. This project includes two 150,000 bbl/d fractionation facilities and a 400,000 bbl/d LPG export terminal, leveraging existing infrastructure. A joint venture with ONEOK for the export terminal and a bidirectional purity pipeline enhances competitiveness and provides a platform for future collaboration, with MPC contracting to purchase the remaining LPG production.

    03

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    MPLX invested $1.9 billion in organic growth and strategic acquisitions in 2024, targeting mid-teens returns. The company returned nearly $4 billion to unitholders in 2024, including a 12.5% increase in its quarterly distribution, maintaining a strong 1.5x coverage. For 2025, a $2 billion capital expenditure outlook is set, with 85% allocated to Natural Gas and NGL Services, aiming to extend durable mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and support annual distribution increases.

    04

    Natural Gas Infrastructure Growth

    MPLX is expanding its natural gas infrastructure, including the construction of the Secretariat processing plant (200 MMcf/d) in the Permian, expected online in Q4 2025. In the Marcellus, the Harmon Creek III processing plant (300 MMcf/d) and additional fractionation capacity (40,000 bbl/d de-ethanizer) are under construction, slated for H2 2026 completion. Long-haul pipelines like Blackcomb and Rio Bravo are also progressing to meet growing demand from Gulf Coast and international markets.

    05

    Market Outlook and Data Center Demand

    Management expressed confidence in a favorable macro environment for energy, with the U.S. positioned as a low-cost producer. Grid electrification, onshoring, near-shoring, and data center development are identified as key drivers for natural gas demand growth through the end of the decade. MPLX believes it is well-positioned to support producer development plans and potentially offer solutions for data center power needs, including co-location opportunities off processing plants or downstream residue pipelines.

    06

    Balance Sheet and Financial Flexibility

    MPLX ended Q4 2024 with $1.5 billion in cash and retired $1.15 billion of senior notes, with another $500 million maturing soon. The company maintains strong financial flexibility with low leverage (just above 3x) and robust distribution coverage, enabling continued investment and capital returns. The strategic relationship with MPC is highlighted as a source of value, with MPC expecting $2.5 billion annually from MPLX distributions, further strengthening the partnership.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.