Skip to content
    MSCI
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    MSCI Inc. MSCI

    Jan 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    MSCI Q4 FY25 — Strong Momentum Across Product Lines and Client Segments

    MSCI demonstrated strong Q4 FY25 performance with double-digit organic revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS growth, driven by innovation and expanding client segments. The company is leveraging AI to enhance capabilities and accelerate product development, positioning it for continued long-term growth despite some headwinds in cash taxes and specific product lines. Management remains committed to its financial algorithm and capital return strategy, extending key partnerships and focusing on client-centric solutions.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved organic revenue growth of over 10% in Q4 FY25.

    • Reported adjusted EBITDA growth of over 13% and adjusted EPS growth of almost 12% for Q4 FY25.

    • Total run rate grew 13% to over $3.3 billion, driven by strong ABF and recurring subscription growth.

    • Net new subscription sales reached $65 million in Q4 FY25, marking the second best quarter ever for recurring sales.

    • Equity ETFs linked to MSCI indices captured a record $67 billion of inflows during Q4 FY25, totaling $204 billion for the full year.

    Concerns

    3
    • Sustainability and Climate new subscription sales were lower than last year's levels, with particular softness in the Americas.

    • Free cash flow guidance for 2026 reflects approximately $100 million higher expected cash taxes compared to 2025.

    • Cash interest expense is expected to step up by $90 million in 2026 due to debt issuances in Q3 and Q4 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Long-term Revenue Growth (excluding ABF)
    low double-digit
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Adjusted EBITDA Expense Growth
    high single digit to low double digit
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Adjusted EBITDA Growth
    low to mid-teens
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term ABF Growth
    outsized double-digit grower through cycles
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 FY26 Tax Rate
    18% to 20%
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Index
    Strongest new recurring subscription sales ever in Q4, complemented by significant inflows into ETFs linked to MSCI indices, particularly in Europe. The extension of the BlackRock ETF agreement through 2035 solidifies future growth.
    Recurring net new sales: best quarter everCustom indexes growth: 16%Retention rate (full year): nearly 96%Retention rate (quarter): 95%Equity ETF inflows (Q4): record $67 billionEquity ETF inflows (FY25): $204 billionTotal ETF and non-ETF AUM linked to MSCI indices: approximately $7 trillion
    9.4%
    Analytics
    Subscription run rate growth driven by strong recurring sales, benefiting from enterprise risk and performance tools, and continued momentum with risk models. AI insights are being integrated to enhance capabilities.
    Recurring sales: second highest Q4 ever
    over 8%
    Private Capital Solutions
    Growth accelerated, driven by strong traction with total plan offering and transparency data. Numerous enhancements and new capabilities, including AI-enabled data sourcing, are contributing to momentum.
    New recurring subscription sales (Q4): almost $8 millionNew recurring subscription sales growth (Q4 YoY): 86%
    Real Assets
    Run rate growth with improving retention and sales of new solutions. Some green shoots observed in the industry, with private capital moving back into commercial real estate sectors.
    almost 6%

    Operational metrics

    41
    Total Revenue CAGR (since IPO)
    nearly 13%
    18 years

    Compound annual growth rate since MSCI's IPO.

    Adjusted EBITDA CAGR (since IPO)
    nearly 15%
    18 years

    Compound annual growth rate since MSCI's IPO.

    Adjusted EPS CAGR (since IPO)
    over 16%
    18 years

    Compound annual growth rate since MSCI's IPO.

    Adjusted EPS Growth
    almost 12%
    Q4 FY25

    Adjusted EPS growth for the fourth quarter.

    Adjusted EPS Growth
    almost 14%
    FY25

    Adjusted EPS growth for the full year.

    Adjusted EBITDA Growth
    over 13%
    Q4 FY25

    Adjusted EBITDA growth for the fourth quarter.

    Total Run Rate
    $3.3 billion13% growth
    Q4 FY25

    Total run rate at the end of Q4 FY25.

    ABF Run Rate
    $852 million26% growth
    Q4 FY25

    Asset-based fees run rate at the end of Q4 FY25.

    Recurring Subscription Run Rate
    $2.4 billionover 9% growth
    Q4 FY25

    Recurring subscription run rate at the end of Q4 FY25.

    Net New Subscription Sales
    $65 million18% growth
    Q4 FY25

    Second best quarter ever for recurring net new subscription sales.

    Nonrecurring Sales
    $31 million
    Q4 FY25

    Nonrecurring sales for the fourth quarter.

    Total Net Sales
    $96 million
    Q4 FY25

    Total net sales for the fourth quarter.

    Company-wide Retention Rate
    over 94%
    FY25

    Company-wide retention rate for the full year.

    Share Buyback (Q4 FY25)
    $958 million
    Q4 FY25

    Amount of shares bought back in Q4 FY25 and through yesterday.

    Share Buyback (Last 2 years)
    $3.3 billion
    Last 2 years

    Total share repurchases over the last two years.

    Equity ETF Inflows
    $67 billionrecord
    Q4 FY25

    Record inflows into Equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes during the quarter.

    Equity ETF Inflows
    $204 billion
    FY25

    Total inflows into Equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes for the full year.

    Cash Balance
    $515 million
    End of Dec

    Ending cash balance at the end of December.

    Revolver Paid Down
    $125 million
    Subsequent to Q4 FY25

    Amount paid down on the revolver subsequent to the quarter end.

    Revolver Balance
    $175 million
    Subsequent to Q4 FY25

    Current balance of the revolver after payment.

    Cash Taxes Impact
    $100 million higher
    FY26 vs FY25

    Expected increase in cash taxes for 2026 compared to 2025, impacting free cash flow.

    Cash Interest Expense Step-up
    $90 million
    FY26

    Meaningful step-up in cash interest expense for 2026 due to recent debt issuances.

    Occupancy CapEx (London office)
    $25 million
    FY26

    Anticipated capital expenditure for the build-out of a new London office space.

    Software Capitalization Increase
    FY26

    Increases in software capitalization related to key business investments across products, contributing to CapEx.

    Index Subscription Run Rate Growth
    13%
    Q4 FY25

    Subscription run rate growth for hedge funds.

    Recurring Net New Sales Growth
    26%
    Q4 FY25

    Recurring net new sales growth for hedge funds.

    Subscription Run Rate Growth
    nearly 11%
    Q4 FY25

    Subscription run rate growth for wealth managers.

    Recurring Sales Growth
    15%
    Q4 FY25

    Recurring sales growth for wealth managers.

    Subscription Run Rate Growth
    close to 11%
    Q4 FY25

    Subscription run rate growth for asset owners.

    Recurring Net New Sales Growth
    strongest in 5 years
    Q4 FY25

    Strongest recurring net new sales growth in five years for asset owners.

    Subscription Run Rate Growth
    over 9%
    Q4 FY25

    Subscription run rate growth for banks and broker-dealers.

    Recurring Net New Sales Growth
    13%
    Q4 FY25

    Recurring net new sales growth for active asset managers, primarily driven by Index.

    Subscription Run Rate Growth
    over 7%
    Q4 FY25

    Subscription run rate growth for active asset managers.

    Index Recurring Subscription Sales Growth
    nearly 10%
    Q4 FY25

    Index recurring subscription sales growth with asset managers.

    Index Subscription Run Rate Growth
    slightly above 8%
    Q4 FY25

    Index subscription run rate growth with asset managers.

    ETF Fee Floor Decrease
    0.05 basis point
    Jan 1, 2026

    First phase of fee floor decrease impacting certain superscale ETFs as part of BlackRock agreement extension.

    ETF Fee Floor Decrease
    0.05 basis point
    Jan 1, 2027

    Second phase of fee floor decrease impacting certain superscale ETFs as part of BlackRock agreement extension.

    Total ETF Fee Floor Impact
    0.1 basis points
    FY26-FY27

    Aggregate impact of fee floor reductions from the BlackRock ETF agreement extension.

    Contribution to Recurring Sales from Recently Introduced Products
    20% increase
    FY25

    Increase in the contribution to recurring sales from products introduced recently.

    Retention Rate
    slightly below 93%
    Q4 FY25

    Retention rate in EMEA, generally lower than Americas.

    Retention Rate
    slightly above 94%
    Q4 FY25

    Retention rate in Americas, generally higher than EMEA.

    Product announcements

    6
    ProductTypeDetails
    Extended Custom Index Modulelaunch
    Basket Builder Solutionlaunch
    Document Management and SourceView offeringlaunch
    AI Insightsupdate
    Geospatial Asset Intelligenceupdate
    AI-powered Custom Index Creationupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    BlackRockExtension of ETF agreementthrough 2035

    Solidifies tremendous future growth and positions for enormous upside, reflecting a close partnership and shared success.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Softness in Sustainability and Climate sales in AmericasQ4 FY25 and ongoing

    New subscription sales lower than last year's levels

    Mitigation: Holding our own, consolidating, and aggressively displacing competitors in the marketplace, while expanding solutions to other emerging risks.

    Secular pressures on active asset managersOngoing

    Continued outflows, cost pressures

    Mitigation: Helping the industry return to high growth and profitability by supporting ETF wrappers, creating investment products, and consolidating suppliers.

    Higher cash taxes in 2026FY26

    approximately $100 million higher expected cash taxes

    Mitigation: Due to various one-time discrete tax benefits in 2025 and the timing of cash tax payments between 2025 and 2026.

    Increased cash interest expense in 2026FY26

    $90 million step-up

    Mitigation: Due to two debt issuances in Q3 and Q4 2025, with no cash interest payments in 2025 for these issuances.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Sustainability and Climate sales in Americas

    next quarter
    Currentlower than last year's levels, with particular softness
    Targetrecovery/stabilization

    Why it matters

    Indicates market acceptance and political impact on ESG products, a key growth area for expansion into broader emerging risks.

    In Sustainability and Climate, our new subscription sales were lower than last year's levels, with particular softness in the Americas.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Which AI initiatives are most meaningful for adoption, which clients are most interested, and what is the potential impact on growth rates in 2026 and beyond?

    Henry Fernandez explained that AI is used extensively for operational efficiency (e.g., ESG controversies, private market data capture) and product enhancement (e.g., AI insights in Analytics, automating custom index creation). He noted that most product lines will benefit, and while it's early days, the company is transforming into an 'AI machine' with enormous potential.

    The company is turning into a total AI machine, and we think it's a godsend to us, as I've said in the prior call.

    asked by Toni Kaplan · answered by Henry Fernandez

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    AI Integration and Impact

    MSCI is extensively leveraging AI for both operational efficiency and product enhancement. AI agents are used for day-to-day operations, such as analyzing ESG controversies and gathering private market data. On the product side, AI insights are integrated into Analytics for portfolio understanding, and AI automates custom index creation, significantly accelerating the process. This company-wide embrace of AI is expected to increase the value of tools for clients, accelerate product introduction, and enable a much higher pace of organic investment growth by reallocating cost savings.

    02

    International Market Momentum

    The company is observing a significant uptick in activity and inflows into non-dollar assets, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific. MSCI's Index run rate in EMEA (including subscription and ABF) has now surpassed that of the Americas, driven by substantial inflows into Europe-listed ETFs and increased product adoption. While it's early to determine if this is a secular 'great rotation' away from dollar assets, MSCI is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, having seen strong performance in APAC as well.

    03

    Private Capital Solutions Growth

    Private Capital Solutions (PCS) achieved its best net new sales quarter, with an 86% increase in recurring sales year-over-year, driven by strong traction in total plan offerings and transparency data. The segment benefits from continuous product enhancements, new capabilities like Document Management and SourceView, and AI-enabled data sourcing. Management views this as the early innings of a massive opportunity, with tokenization identified as a potential accelerant for private markets and the adoption of MSCI's tools in this space.

    04

    Active Asset Manager Engagement

    MSCI is proactively engaging with active asset managers to help them navigate secular pressures and return to growth. Strategies include supporting the transition of active portfolios to ETF wrappers, enabling clients to create new investment products, and encouraging supplier consolidation. This approach has yielded positive results, with active asset managers showing 13% recurring net new sales growth, indicating a successful shift in how MSCI approaches this important client segment.

    05

    BlackRock ETF Agreement Extension

    MSCI extended its ETF agreement with BlackRock through 2035, solidifying a key partnership for future growth. This extension involves a phased reduction in fee floors for certain superscale ETFs, resulting in an aggregate impact of approximately 0.1 basis points based on year-end 2025 AUM levels. The reduction will occur in two steps: 0.05 basis points on January 1, 2026, and another 0.05 basis points on January 1, 2027, reflecting a shared success model.

    06

    ESG Market Dynamics and Expansion

    The ESG market is undergoing transformation, with recovery observed in Europe driven by a focus on financial materiality and supplier consolidation. However, the Americas market remains soft due to political undertones. Strategically, MSCI is expanding its Sustainability franchise beyond traditional ESG to analyze other emerging risks like tariffs, supply chain disruption🌐s, and the impact of AI on companies. A significant pivot towards physical risk in climate solutions is also underway, addressing growing demand from various capital pools.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.