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    MTB
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    M&T BANK CORP MTB

    Jan 16, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    M&T Bank Q4 FY24 — Strong Capital Generation and NII Stability

    M&T Bank delivered a strong Q4 FY24, marked by stable net interest income and robust loan and deposit growth, reflecting effective balance sheet management. The bank continued to improve asset quality and build capital, enabling increased share repurchases. Management remains focused on strategic priorities, including market expansion and operational optimization, while navigating a dynamic interest rate environment and regulatory landscape.

    Highlights

    5
    • Taxable equivalent Net Interest Income (NII) was largely stable at $1.74 billion compared to Q3, despite 100 basis points in rate cuts.

    • Average total loans grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, increasing $1 billion to $135.7 billion.

    • Average total deposits grew over $3 billion sequentially to $164.6 billion, with interest-bearing deposit costs declining 24 basis points to 2.64%.

    • The CET1 ratio grew to 11.67% at quarter-end, and tangible book value per share grew 1% in Q4 and 11% for the full year 2024.

    • Asset quality improved significantly with a $1 billion reduction in commercial criticized loans to $9.9 billion and a $236 million reduction in nonaccrual loans to $1.7 billion.

    Concerns

    4
    • Diluted earnings per share decreased to $3.86 from $4.02 in the prior quarter.

    • Net interest margin (NIM) decreased 4 basis points from the prior quarter to 3.58%.

    • Net charge-offs for the quarter totaled $160 million or 47 basis points, up from 35 basis points in the linked quarter.

    • Noninterest expenses increased $60 million from the prior quarter to $1.36 billion, driven by notable items and seasonal increases.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Taxable equivalent Net Interest Income
    $7.1 billion to $7.2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Margin
    averaging in the mid-360s, increasing through the year
    high materiality
    High
    Average Loan and Lease Balances
    $137 billion to $139 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Average Deposit Balances
    $164 billion to $166 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Noninterest Income
    $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Total Noninterest Expense
    $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Net Charge-offs
    near 40 basis points
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Taxable Equivalent Tax Rate
    approximately 24.5%
    low materiality
    Medium
    CET1 Ratio
    11%
    high materiality
    High
    Share Repurchases
    higher than the third and fourth quarter of 2024
    high materiality
    High
    CET1 Ratio
    around 10%
    high materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    44
    Net operating earnings per share
    $14.88
    FY24

    For the full year 2024.

    ROTA
    1.3%
    FY24

    For the full year 2024.

    ROTCE
    14.54%
    FY24

    For the full year 2024.

    Tangible book value per share growth
    11%
    FY24

    For the full year 2024.

    ROA
    1.28%
    Q4 FY24

    GAAP basis for the fourth quarter.

    ROCE
    9.75%
    Q4 FY24

    GAAP basis for the fourth quarter.

    Net operating income
    $691 millioncompared to $731 million in the linked quarter
    Q4 FY24

    For the fourth quarter.

    Diluted net operating earnings per share
    $3.92down from $4.08 in the prior quarter
    Q4 FY24

    For the fourth quarter.

    ROTA
    1.35%
    Q4 FY24

    Net operating basis for the fourth quarter.

    NII nonaccrual interest
    $25 millioncompared to $12 million in the third quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Impact on Net Interest Income.

    Loan yields
    6.17%decreased 21 basis points
    Q4 FY24

    As lower rates on variable loans were partially offset by fixed rate loan repricing, smaller drag related to cash flow hedges and higher nonaccrual interest.

    Investment securities and cash
    $54.8 billion
    Q4 FY24

    Total at the end of the fourth quarter, including cash held at the Fed.

    Yield on investment securities
    3.88%increased 18 basis points
    Q4 FY24

    As the yield on new purchases exceeded the yield on maturing securities.

    Securities purchased
    $3.3 billion
    Q4 FY24

    In the fourth quarter.

    Duration of investment portfolio
    3.7 years
    Q4 FY24

    At the end of the quarter.

    Unrealized pretax loss on AFS portfolio
    $205 million
    Q4 FY24

    If included in regulatory capital.

    Noninterest-bearing deposits
    $46.5 billionrose $0.4 billion
    Q4 FY24

    Average balance for the quarter.

    Noninterest-bearing deposit mix
    30.4%
    Q4 FY24

    Average mix for the fourth quarter.

    Interest-bearing deposit costs
    2.64%decreased 24 basis points
    Q4 FY24

    For the fourth quarter.

    Trust income
    $175 millionincreased $5 million
    Q4 FY24

    From higher sales and fees in corporate trust and agency services.

    Mortgage banking revenues
    $117 millioncompared to $109 million in the third quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Total mortgage banking revenues.

    Commercial mortgage banking revenues
    $41 millionincreased $7 million from the linked quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Reflecting higher gains on the sale of commercial mortgage loans.

    Other revenues from operations
    $176 millionincreased $24 million
    Q4 FY24

    For the fourth quarter.

    Salaries and benefits
    $790 millionincreased $15 million
    Q4 FY24

    Inclusive of higher incentive compensation.

    Equipment and occupancy
    $133 millionincreased $8 million
    Q4 FY24

    From new data center starting to come online.

    Other costs from operations
    $168 millionincreased $40 million
    Q4 FY24

    For the fourth quarter.

    Adjusted efficiency ratio
    55.3%
    Q4 FY24

    When excluding notable items.

    Net charge-offs
    41 basis points
    FY24

    For the full year, in line with expectations.

    Nonaccrual ratio
    1.25%decreased 17 basis points
    Q4 FY24

    Driven largely by upgrades out of nonaccrual as well as payoffs and charge-offs.

    Allowance to loan ratio
    1.61%decreased 1 basis point
    Q4 FY24

    Partially related to the reduction in criticized loans.

    Criticized loans
    $9.9 billioncompared to $10.9 billion at the end of September
    Q4 FY24

    Improvement driven by C&I and CRE criticized balances decline.

    C&I criticized loan decline
    $302 million
    Q4 FY24

    Concentrated in services, health services and dealer segments.

    CRE criticized loan decline
    $691 million
    Q4 FY24

    Primarily within office, retail, health care, hotel and construction.

    Negative AOCI impact on CET1 ratio
    4 basis points
    Q4 FY24

    From the available-for-sale portfolio and pension-related components combined.

    GDP growth
    2.8%
    FY24

    Estimated for 2024 once Q4 data is published.

    Deposit betas
    50%
    2025

    Expected to be reached in 2025.

    Time deposits cost improvement
    almost 100 basis points
    Q4 FY24 to Q4 FY25

    Point-to-point improvement.

    Received swap portfolio NII increase
    over 50 basis points
    Q4 FY24 to Q4 FY25

    Locked-in increase.

    Investment portfolio yield increase
    20 to 30 basis points
    Q4 FY24 to Q4 FY25

    Expected point-to-point increase depending on shape of the curve.

    Consumer loans and residential mortgage loans yield increase
    10 to 20 basis points
    Q4 FY24 to Q4 FY25

    Expected point-to-point increase.

    First quarter seasonal salary and benefit increase
    $110 million
    Q1 FY25

    Estimated for 2025 outlook.

    Intangible amortization
    $43 million
    FY25

    Included in 2025 expense outlook.

    CRE pipeline
    $1.5 billion
    Current

    Starting to build, indicating renewed lending activity.

    Core deposit growth
    2% or 3%
    FY25

    Expected for the next year.

    Industry KPIs

    13
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans$135.7 billionUSD
    Deposits$164.6 billionUSD
    Rotce ROE14.66%%
    Cet1 ratio11.67%%
    Capital returns$200 millionUSD
    Fee income lines$657 millionUSD
    Allowance reserves1.61%%
    Net interest income$1.74 billionUSD
    Net interest margin3.58%%
    Net charge offs npls47 basis pointsbps
    Total operating expenses$1.36 billionUSD
    Provision for credit losses$140 millionUSD
    Efficiency ratio operating leverage56.8%%

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Sustainability Bondlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    BlackstoneRelationship to originate and place through agencies, connected to RCC business.

    M&T has a relationship with Blackstone, allowing Blackstone to originate and do placements through agencies, leveraging M&T's RCC business.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Office CRE exposureLonger time period

    Still a concern

    Mitigation: Q4 saw a nice reduction in office criticized loans, but risks remain. Fundamentals are improving in other CRE segments.

    Increasing credit delinquency in consumer segments

    Increasing

    Mitigation: Net charge-offs for full year 2025 expected near 40 basis points with continued normalization in consumer portfolio.

    Yield curve volatility

    Volatile environment

    Mitigation: M&T's interest rate sensitivity remains relatively neutral, aided by balance sheet actions in 2024 (forward starting hedges, securities portfolio building). Management is trying to manage through and do things that make sense for the balance sheet and customers.

    Regulatory changes and uncertaintyUpcoming

    New administration will bring new regulatory leadership

    Mitigation: Optimistic that new administration will put in place more balanced regulators focused on true risk, tailoring, and transparency. M&T aligns with focusing on fundamentals and running a good successful bank.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    CET1 Ratio

    2025
    Current11.67%
    TargetCloser to 11%

    Why it matters

    Management plans to reduce the ratio through increased share repurchases, balancing capital deployment with RWA and loan growth, with a long-term target of 10%.

    So our plans are to bring our ratios down throughout the year. We'll be opportunistic from that, but it's also going to be driven by our RWA growth, how much our loan growth is and all that.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Clarify the relationship between the 11% CET1 target, RWA growth, and the magnitude of share repurchases, especially if loan growth is lower.

    Management is comfortable operating at 11% CET1 and plans to bring ratios down throughout 2025. Buybacks will be opportunistic and depend on RWA/loan growth. If loan growth is as expected, buybacks will be slightly over $2 billion; less loan growth means more buybacks, and vice versa. The long-term CET1 target is around 10% over the next 1-2 years.

    If we have less loan growth, we'll do more share repurchase. If we have more loan growth, we'll do less share repurchase.

    asked by Manan Gosalia · answered by Daryl Bible

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Priorities and 2024 Accomplishments

    M&T Bank focused on four key priorities in 2024: building New England and Long Island markets, optimizing resources, enhancing system resilience, and scaling risk management. These efforts led to meeting or exceeding outlooks for NII, fee income, expenses, loans, and deposits, alongside significant progress in CRE concentration reduction and capital growth. The bank achieved net operating EPS of $14.88, ROTA of 1.3%, ROTCE of 14.54%, and 11% growth in tangible book value per share for the full year.

    02

    Balance Sheet Management and NII Stability

    The bank maintained stable NII at $1.74 billion in Q4, despite 100 basis points in rate cuts since September. Net interest margin decreased 4 basis points to 3.58%, primarily due to lower free funds, partially offset by fixed-rate asset repricing and higher nonaccrual interest. Average loans grew $1 billion to $135.7 billion, driven by C&I and consumer, offsetting CRE declines. Average deposits increased $3.1 billion to $164.6 billion, and interest-bearing deposit costs decreased 24 basis points to 2.64%, reflecting a strong deposit franchise.

    03

    Asset Quality Improvement

    Commercial criticized loans decreased by $1 billion to an estimated $9.9 billion, and nonaccrual loans by $236 million to $1.7 billion, improving the nonaccrual ratio to 1.25%. The reduction in criticized loans was primarily due to full payoffs and upgrades, aided by a favorable yield curve in Q3, particularly in COVID-impacted portfolios like healthcare, hotel, and retail. While the pace of reduction may moderate in 2025 due to a steeper yield curve, the remaining criticized book is considered higher quality.

    04

    Capital Strength and Share Repurchases

    M&T's CET1 ratio reached an estimated 11.67% in Q4, up from 11.54% in Q3, supported by strong earnings and $200 million in share repurchases. The bank plans to operate at an 11% CET1 ratio in 2025, with share repurchases expected to increase, balancing capital deployment with loan growth. Management also confirmed opting into the DFAST stress test for 2025, expecting improved performance and a reduction in its stress capital buffer.

    05

    Investment in Technology and Efficiency

    The company is undertaking significant, multi-decade investments in technology, including building three new data centers and implementing a new general ledger system. These, along with ongoing investments in data analytics and digital services, are expected to drive long-term efficiencies. The bank fosters an entrepreneurial culture where business leaders are empowered to improve operations through automation and agile methodologies, contributing to cost savings and improved performance.

    06

    M&A and Market Expansion Strategy

    M&T aims to replicate its Baltimore market success in New England and Long Island through organic growth, increasing business bankers and commercial lenders. While inorganic growth could accelerate this, the bank believes its community-oriented model positions it uniquely between smaller local banks and larger, more product-line-focused institutions. The current CRE pipeline is building at $1.5 billion, indicating renewed engagement with core customers.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.