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    NBIS
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Nebius Group N.V. Q4 FY25 earnings call NBIS

    Feb 12, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Nebius Group Q4 FY25 — Exceeds ARR Guidance, Projects Hypergrowth with Significant CapEx

    Nebius Group concluded a strong Q4 FY25, surpassing its ARR guidance and achieving positive group adjusted EBITDA, driven by robust demand for its AI cloud services. The company is accelerating its capacity build-out with significant CapEx plans for FY26, aiming to capture a substantial market opportunity while maintaining a disciplined approach to financing. Management expressed high confidence in achieving its ambitious FY26 ARR target, supported by strong pipeline growth and increasing contract durations.

    Highlights

    5

    • Annualized Run Rate Revenue (ARR) for the core business reached $1.2 billion at the end of December 2025, exceeding the high end of Q3 guidance.

    • Group adjusted EBITDA inflected positively in Q4 FY25, consistent with guidance, driven by core cloud business strength.

    • Core AI cloud business revenue grew 830% year-over-year and 63% quarter-over-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 24%.

    • Secured over 2 gigawatts of contracted power by February 2026, ahead of the 2.5 gigawatts target for year-end 2025.

    • Average contract duration for new cloud customers grew by 50% and average selling prices increased by over 50% in Q4, reflecting strong demand and pricing power.

    Concerns

    2

    • EBIT is expected to remain at a loss in FY26 due to significant capacity expansion and R&D investments.

    • Q4 FY25 group revenue of $228 million came in the middle of guidance, with some analysts noting it was light versus consensus.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Annualized Run Rate Revenue (ARR)
    $7 billion to $9 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Contracted power
    >3 gigawatts
    high materiality
    High
    Available data center capacity
    800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year revenue
    $3 billion to $3.4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Group adjusted EBITDA margin
    approximately 40%
    high materiality
    High
    EBIT
    remain at the loss
    medium materiality
    High
    Medium-term EBIT target
    20% to 30% with the potential to go higher
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital expenditure
    $16 billion to $20 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    13
    Group revenue
    $228 million547% year-over-year growth, 56% quarter-over-quarter growth
    Q4 FY25

    Came in the middle of guidance.

    Core AI cloud business revenue growth
    830%year-over-year
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by high utilization, strong pricing and strong execution.

    Group adjusted EBITDA
    positive
    Q4 FY25

    Inflected positively, consistent with guidance.

    Core cloud adjusted EBITDA margin
    24%expanded from 19% in Q3
    Q4 FY25
    Cash and cash equivalents
    $3.7 billion
    end of FY25
    Average contract duration for new cloud customers
    grew by 50%
    FY25
    Depreciation schedule
    5 yearsfrom 4 years
    starting Q1 2026

    To reflect market conditions and current utilization commitments, aligned with accounting practices.

    CapEx funding secured
    about 60%
    FY26

    For the $16 billion to $20 billion CapEx plan.

    ClickHouse valuation
    approximately $15 billion
    most recent funding round

    Reported valuation, represents a potential future source of capital.

    Pipeline creation trajectory
    on track to exceed $4 billion
    Q1 2026

    Expected to continue increasing with expanded capacity and sales coverage.

    Transactions over 12 months duration
    nearly twice as manyover Q3 FY25
    Q4 FY25

    Deal terms are getting longer.

    Average selling prices increase
    more than 50%
    Q4 FY25
    AI cloud software attach rate
    100%
    current

    For AI cloud customers utilizing Nebius's AI cloud software.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Capacity CAPEX>2 gigawattsGW
    Revenue growth$228 millionUSD
    Arr net new arr$1.2 billionUSD
    Pricing model mixincreased by more than 50%%
    Acquisition contribution700,000developers
    Large deal new logo metricsnearly twice as many
    Operating FCF margin rule of 407%%
    Ai product adoption monetization100%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Annualized Run Rate Revenue (ARR)$1.2 billionend of December 2025

    exceeded high end of Q3 guidance range of $1.1 billion

    For the core business.

    Contracted power>2 gigawattsFebruary 2026

    ahead of previous target of 2.5 gigawatts by year-end

    Capacity utilizationsold outQ1 2026

    Even before capacity comes online, it's often sold out.

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Token Factorylaunch
    Aether releaseslaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Tavilyacquisition

    Tavily is an agentic search company that connects AI agents to the web. It fits Nebius's strategy to be a platform for AI developers, deepening customer engagement and stickiness.

    Capital programs

    3
    New data centersannounced

    9 new data centers announced across the globe to accelerate capacity plans. A mix of smaller and larger projects.

    Meta contract capacity deploymentcompleted

    Benefit: fully deployed

    All contracted tranches delivered on time, now in full servicing stage. Expected to recognize 12 months of revenue for first tranche and 11 months for second tranche.

    Microsoft contract capacity deploymentunderway
    Spent to date: first tranche delivered in November (on time)

    First tranche delivered on time, remaining capacity on schedule. Expected to begin contributing to revenue at full annual run rate in 2027.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    EBIT lossFY26

    expected to remain at a loss

    Mitigation: Investing in capacity expansion, GPU deployment, and R&D with attractive returns expected to lead to medium-term EBIT target of 20-30%.

    Data center equipment shortages

    headlines of data center equipment shortages in the market

    Mitigation: Portfolio of sites to avoid dependency on a single project; full stack cloud flexibility to move loads; contracted majority of long lead items for own sites; secured necessary components for Microsoft and Meta contracts in H2 2025 before price increases.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What market signals support Nebius's aggressive AI cloud investments?

    Arkady highlighted broad AI adoption in daily life and corporations, and specific signals from large accounts, AI start-ups evolving into enterprises, and growing enterprise AI adoption. He cited examples of start-ups scaling from hundreds to tens of thousands of GPUs.

    “Some start-ups disappeared, but some of them are becoming real companies, real enterprises of the future. And they started getting traction. Their products became more and more -- they're more and more used by their customers, and they're scaling quickly, scaling with real revenues, real demand.”

    asked by Investor on portal · answered by Arkady Volozh

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strong Demand and Capacity Expansion

    Nebius Group experienced robust demand for its AI cloud services, with capacity sold out in Q3, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026. This strong demand, coupled with increasing contract durations and average selling prices, is driving an accelerated capacity expansion plan. The company announced 9 new data centers and raised its 2026 contracted power forecast to over 3 gigawatts, up from 2.5 gigawatts previously.

    02

    Financial Outperformance and Strategic Investments

    The company exceeded its Q3 ARR guidance, reaching $1.2 billion by December 2025, and achieved positive group adjusted EBITDA in Q4. Despite projecting an EBIT loss for 2026 due to substantial CapEx of $16 billion to $20 billion, management is confident in attractive returns and a medium-term EBIT target of 20-30%. These investments are aimed at scaling capacity, deploying GPUs, and enhancing the technology stack.

    03

    Customer Evolution and Market Trends

    Nebius is observing a significant trend where AI start-ups are evolving into real enterprise-scale companies, with their demand for GPUs growing from hundreds to tens of thousands. Enterprises are also increasingly integrating AI into vital business processes, leading to growing contracts and longer durations. This broad-based demand across hyperscalers, AI start-ups, and enterprises underpins the company's aggressive growth strategy.

    04

    Strategic Acquisitions and Product Development

    Nebius continues to expand its platform organically and through targeted acquisitions. The recent launch of Token Factory showcases its in-house capabilities, while the acquisition of Tavily adds agentic search capabilities and brings 700,000 developers to its ecosystem. These moves are designed to deepen customer engagement, increase stickiness, and strengthen its position as a full-stack AI cloud provider.

    05

    Capital Structure and Funding Strategy

    The company ended 2025 with $3.7 billion in cash and generated $834 million in Q4 operating cash flow, primarily from upfront payments. Approximately 60% of the 2026 CapEx is already funded. Nebius plans to optimize its capital structure by exploring corporate debt and asset-backed financing, while being mindful of shareholder dilution. Existing equity stakes in companies like ClickHouse (valued at ~$15 billion) also provide future capital sources.

    06

    Depreciation Schedule Update

    Starting Q1 2026, Nebius is updating its depreciation schedule for assets from 4 years to 5 years. This change reflects current market conditions and utilization commitments, aligning with accounting practices and maintaining a conservative approach.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.