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    NEM
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    NEWMONT Corp /DE/ NEM

    Feb 20, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Newmont Q4 FY24 — Strong Cash Flow and Divestment Progress Amidst Integration Challenges

    Newmont concluded a transformational year marked by significant asset integration and a successful divestment program, positioning a core portfolio of Tier 1 assets for long-term value. While facing elevated costs and integration hurdles at key acquired operations, the company delivered strong Q4 free cash flow and exceeded production guidance. Management is now intensely focused on stabilizing the business, improving cost and productivity performance across its go-forward portfolio, and delivering on its 2025 commitments.

    Highlights

    5
    • Exceeded production guidance with 6.8 million ounces of gold and over 150,000 tonnes of copper in 2024.

    • Generated record Q4 free cash flow of $1.6 billion, contributing to $2.9 billion for the full year.

    • Divestment program expected to deliver up to $4.3 billion in pretax proceeds and remove approximately $1.8 billion in closure liabilities.

    • Returned $2.3 billion to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases in 2024.

    • Maintained strong financial position with over $3.6 billion in cash and $7.7 billion in liquidity, retiring $1.4 billion in debt to reach target below $8 billion.

    Concerns

    4
    • All-in sustaining costs (AISC) expected to be elevated at $1,620 per ounce in 2025, driven by higher sustaining capital and macroeconomic factors.

    • Integration of acquired assets (Cadia, Lihir) has presented specific hurdles requiring significant investment and operational focus over the next 12-24 months.

    • G&A costs are considered "unacceptably high" for the go-forward portfolio, despite synergy efforts.

    • First quarter 2025 is anticipated to have the highest all-in sustaining costs and a notable decrease in free cash flow compared to Q4 2024.

    Guidance & targets

    18
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Gold production
    around 5.6 million ounces
    high materiality
    High
    All-in sustaining cost
    $1,620 an ounce
    high materiality
    High
    Sustaining capital
    $1.8 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Sustaining capital
    remain at $1.8 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Development capital
    $1.3 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Gold production (average)
    roughly 6 million ounces
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production (average)
    around 150,000 tonnes
    high materiality
    High
    Gold production increase
    more than 10% of annual gold production
    high materiality
    Medium
    Ahafo complex gold production
    around 750,000 ounces per year
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Non-managed JVs gold production increase
    approximately 20% more gold
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Gold production weighting
    around 52% weighted to the second half of this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Gold production
    around 23% of the forecast gold production from our core portfolio
    medium materiality
    High
    Sustaining capital spend weighting
    around 52% weighted to the first half of this year
    medium materiality
    High
    Free cash flow
    notable decrease
    high materiality
    High
    Free cash flow
    sequentially higher free cash flow each quarter
    high materiality
    High
    Cash balance target
    above $3 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Debt balance target
    below $8 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Annual dividend
    $1 a share
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Peñasquito
    Higher gold grades from Penasco pit in 2025 following successful stripping campaign in 2024. 2026 will see higher proportion of silver, lead, and zinc content from Chile Colorado pit.
    30% increase
    Boddington
    Investment in stripping planned laybacks in North and South pits progresses well, paving the way for higher grades.
    30% more gold
    Ahafo complex
    2024 was a record production year for Ahafo South. Strong performance continues through H1 2025, then moves to lower-grade ore from Awonsu open pit. Ahafo North comes online in H2 2025, enabling stable production.
    Annual gold production (2026 and beyond): 750,000 ounces
    Tanami
    Production consistent in 2025, weighted 60% to H2 due to higher grade stopes. Expansion project to provide meaningful reduction in operating costs and increase gold production.
    around 35%
    Non-managed joint ventures
    Expected to enhance production in 2025. Managing partner indicates significant increase in 2027.
    Gold production (2025): around 1.4 million ouncesGold production (2027 vs. 2024): approximately 20% more

    Operational metrics

    22
    Cash proceeds from divestment program
    $2.5 billion
    H1 FY25

    expected in the first half of this year after taxes and closing costs.

    Cash proceeds from divestment program
    $1.6 billion
    Q1 FY25

    expected in Q1

    Cash proceeds from divestment program
    $0.9 billion
    Q2 FY25

    expected in Q2

    Closure liabilities removed from balance sheet
    $1.8 billion
    Ongoing

    expected to remove approximately $1.8 billion in closure liabilities from our balance sheet.

    Cash balance
    $3.6 billion
    FY24 end
    Liquidity
    $7.7 billion
    FY24 end
    Debt retired
    $1.4 billion
    Last 12 months
    Shareholder returns (dividends + buybacks)
    $2.3 billion
    FY24
    Share repurchase authorization remaining
    $1.8 billion$1.2 billion executed
    Ongoing

    We've executed on $1.2 billion, and we have $1.8 billion remaining on that authorization

    Gold production
    6.8 million ouncesexceeded guidance
    FY24
    Copper production
    over 150,000 tonnes
    FY24
    Gold production from go-forward core portfolio
    around 85%
    FY24

    of which around 85% was produced from our go-forward core portfolio.

    Gold production from noncore assets held for divestment
    around 250,000 ounces
    Q1 FY25

    This will then be supplemented by around 250,000 higher cost ounces from our noncore assets held for divestment.

    Gold price assumption for AISC calculation
    $2,500
    FY25

    for 2025, we have assumed a $2,500 gold price.

    AISC sensitivity to gold price
    $10 increase
    FY25

    for every $100 increase in gold price, we expect a $10 increase in our all-in sustaining costs due to taxes, royalties and profit sharing payments.

    AISC impact from elevated sustaining capital
    $40 increase
    FY25

    tied to the elevated sustaining capital spend at Cadia associated with the investment in both tailings remediation and storage capacity

    AISC impact from polymetallic cost allocation
    $35 increase
    FY25

    from a higher proportion of the costs at our 4 polymetallic mines being allocated to gold over other metals. This noncash impact to our gold all-in sustaining cost is due to the way we categorize co-product costs under U.S. GAAP and driven by the increase in our gold reserve price compared to our reserve prices for copper, silver, lead and zinc.

    AISC impact from inflation
    $44 increase
    FY25

    linked to a 3% assumption for inflation this year compared to 2024.

    Number of managed operations
    17
    FY24
    Number of managed operations (go-forward)
    11
    FY25

    as we transition from 17 to 11 managed operations over the course of this year.

    Current gold price
    $2,900near-record levels
    Current

    surpassing $2,900 an ounce, more than $500 higher than the price we realized in 2024.

    Gold price realized
    $2,400
    FY24

    Derived from $2,900 current price being $500 higher than 2024 realized price.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    SafetyStrengthening safety performance
    All in sustaining cost$1,620USD/ounce
    Reserve life new supply134 million ounces gold, 170 million ounces gold resourcesounces
    Growth project CAPEX first productionAhafo North, Tanami expansion, Cadia panel caves
    Ore grade recovery drilling by depositHigher gold grades
    Production sales volume by metal and by mine6.8 million ounces gold, over 150,000 tonnes copperounces, tonnes

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    MultipleSale of 6 noncore operationsUp to $4.3 billion pretax proceeds

    All 6 noncore operations announced last February have been sold or have definitive agreements. Telfer was closed late last year.

    Capital programs

    4
    Ahafo Northunderway
    Start: 2023 (land access/clearing)

    Made notable shift from land access and clearing activities in 2023 to construction of mine and processing infrastructure, progressing highway diversion and commencing stripping last year. On track to pour first gold in H2 2025.

    Tanami Expansion 2underway
    Spent to date: concrete lining of top 1.3km of 1.5km shaft completed (30,000 tonnes concrete); 160m section of overbreak backfilled

    Benefit: meaningful reduction in operating costs; increase gold production by around 35% beginning in 2028

    Completed concrete lining of top 1.3km of shaft and backfilled 160m overbreak. Focus in 2025 shifts to equipping top section and raise boring bottom 160m, along with construction of underground crushing and surface infrastructure.

    Cadia Panel Cave Development (PC2-3 & PC1-2)underway
    Spent to date: PC2-3 achieved cave establishment, delivered over 1 million tonnes of ore; PC1-2 completed over 12 kilometers of underground development.

    Benefit: expected to deliver more than 5 million ounces of gold and 1 million tonnes of copper

    PC2-3 is established and producing. PC1-2 is under development. These caves, combined with tailings investments, will position Cadia for long-term operation.

    Cadia Tailings Remediation and Storage Capacityunderway
    Period spend: elevated sustaining capital spend

    Catching up on historical underinvestment. Sustaining capital expected to remain at $1.8 billion for the next couple of years to complete this investment cycle.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Specific hurdles in integrating acquired assets, particularly Cadia and Lihir.Next 12-24 months

    Requires significant operational and technical experience deployment over the next 12 to 24 months.

    Mitigation: Deploying full operational and technical experience, including sustainability leadership, to preserve and optimize long-term value; making sustaining capital investments to bring assets to Newmont and Tier 1 level.

    AISC expected to be $1,620/ounce in 2025, which is higher than desired.FY25

    $40/ounce increase from Cadia sustaining capital, $35/ounce increase from polymetallic cost allocation, $10/ounce increase for every $100 gold price rise, $44/ounce increase from 3% inflation.

    Mitigation: Working to reduce costs and improve productivity across the go-forward managed portfolio; bringing on new low-cost ounces; normalizing sustaining capital spend over the next 3 years; G&A cost reduction program.

    G&A costs are unacceptably high for the go-forward portfolio.FY25

    Elevated costs due to carrying 5 assets held for divestment and ongoing system integration.

    Mitigation: Laser focus on reducing G&A as the portfolio transitions from 17 to 11 managed operations; expecting a glide path for G&A reduction as divestments close and integration completes.

    Anticipated notable decrease in Q1 free cash flow and highest AISC compared to the rest of the year.Q1 FY25

    Q1 gold production expected to be around 23% of forecast; sustaining capital spend weighted around 52% to H1.

    Mitigation: Expectation of sequentially higher free cash flow each quarter for the remainder of the year; well-positioned to deliver on commitments and fund capital allocation priorities.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    G&A cost reduction

    through this year
    Currentunacceptably high
    Targetglide path of that G&A cost coming down

    Why it matters

    Demonstrates cost discipline and synergy realization post-divestments, impacting overall profitability.

    But the number we're guiding to is an unacceptably high number for our go-forward portfolio. And as we see those assets leave our portfolio, I expect and you should expect to see a glide path of that G&A cost coming down to match a go-forward portfolio of 11 managed operations.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Given recent debt reduction and upcoming divestment proceeds, should the market expect a shift in debt targets or capital allocation strategy, possibly using a leverage ratio to enable more growth projects?

    Karyn Ovelmen reiterated the unchanged capital allocation strategy: maintaining cash above $3 billion, debt below $8 billion, funding cash-generative capital projects ($1.8B sustaining, $1.3B development), and returning capital via the $1 annual dividend and remaining $1.8 billion share repurchase authorization. No change to financial policies.

    right now, our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. So maintaining that strong balance sheet with around $3 billion in cash on average over the year, debt below the $8 billion, as you said, and steadily funding those cash-generative capital projects.

    asked by Hugo Nicolaci · answered by Karyn Ovelmen

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Safety Performance and Improvement Initiatives

    Newmont is strengthening its safety performance through a review and refresh of key safety programs. This includes enhancing culture, systems, and skill development, with a focus on frontline leadership capabilities, hazard management, and consistent accountability. The goal is to empower employees to make safe, productive decisions daily, ensuring the health and safety of the workforce remains paramount.

    02

    Integration of Acquired Assets

    The integration of acquired assets, particularly Cadia and Lihir, has presented hurdles that Newmont is actively addressing. At Cadia, the focus is on transitioning to new panel caves (PC2-3, PC1-2) and rectifying historical underinvestment in tailings remediation and storage capacity. At Lihir, efforts are concentrated on stabilizing the mine and processing plant by optimizing the mine plan, establishing a run-of-mine stockpile, and improving asset reliability. These strategic investments are crucial for unlocking the long-term value and multi-decade potential of these assets.

    03

    Divestment Program Success

    Newmont's divestment program has been a resounding success, with all six noncore operations either sold or under definitive agreements. This program is expected to yield up to $4.3 billion in pretax proceeds and remove approximately $1.8 billion in closure liabilities from the balance sheet. Cash proceeds of $2.5 billion are anticipated in the first half of 2025, positioning Newmont with a streamlined core set of Tier 1 assets capable of capitalizing on gold and copper cycles for decades.

    04

    Reserve Base and Price Assumption Update

    Newmont's gold reserve base now stands at 134 million ounces, supported by 170 million ounces of gold resources. These reserves were declared using a $1,700 per ounce gold price, an increase from $1,400, following a standard annual review process. This update considers trailing averages, analyst forecasts, and current economic conditions, with no material reduction in reserve gold grade. Revisions were also made for Lihir and Brucejack to align with Newmont's governance and technical rigor.

    05

    Operational Outlook for Key Mines

    Peñasquito expects a 30% increase in gold production in 2025 due to higher grades from the Penasco pit. Boddington anticipates 30% more gold starting in 2027 following stripping investments. The Ahafo complex will see stable production around 750,000 ounces per year from 2026, with Ahafo North coming online in H2 2025 offsetting the end of the Subika open pit. Tanami production will be consistent in 2025, weighted to H2, with an expansion project expected to reduce costs and increase production by 35% from 2028.

    06

    Cost and Productivity Improvement Program

    Recognizing that current All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) are "unacceptably high," Newmont is implementing a three-component program to improve cost and productivity. This includes reducing G&A costs as the portfolio transitions from 17 to 11 managed operations, evolving commercial work to leverage scale in supply chain and sales, and systematically improving productivity across all 11 managed operations while maintaining industry-leading safety. Updates on this program will be provided throughout the year.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.