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    NSC
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NSC

    Oct 23, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Norfolk Southern Q3 FY25 — Strong Productivity and Safety Amidst Intermodal Headwinds

    Norfolk Southern delivered strong operational performance in Q3 FY25, achieving record fuel efficiency and significant safety improvements while increasing GTMs with fewer resources. However, revenue fell short of expectations due to persistent macro headwinds and intensified competitive pressures in intermodal markets following the proposed merger announcement. The company remains focused on cost control and service quality, preparing for long-term growth opportunities post-merger while navigating near-term top-line volatility.

    Highlights

    5
    • Operating ratio improved by 10 bps year-over-year and sequentially to 63.3% (adjusted).

    • Gross Ton-Miles (GTMs) increased 4% year-over-year while operating with 6% fewer qualified T&E employees.

    • Achieved a new quarterly record in fuel efficiency of 1.01, a 5% year-over-year gain.

    • Merchandise volume grew 6% year-over-year, driven by auto, chemical, and metals/construction markets.

    • FRA personal injury ratio improved 7.8% and train accident ratio improved 27.7% year-to-date vs. 2024.

    Concerns

    5
    • Revenue was approximately $75 million short of prior guidance due to macro headwinds and competitive responses.

    • Intermodal volumes decreased 2% year-over-year due to trade uncertainty, oversupplied truck market, and merger-related competitive actions.

    • Export coal markets saw meaningful declines, with RPU less fuel lower by 7% year-over-year.

    • Claims expense was elevated due to resolution of older claims and social inflation, despite safety improvements.

    • Anticipate volume pressure, particularly in Intermodal, to intensify in Q4 and persist over the near and medium term due to competitor reactions to the proposed merger.

    Guidance & targets

    3
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Cumulative efficiency target
    $600 million
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 FY25 Cost Structure
    $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    FY25 Efficiency Target
    roughly $200 million
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Merchandise
    Volume growth driven by auto, chemical, and metals/construction markets. Mix headwinds from natural gas liquids, sand, and scrap metal diluted overall RPU.
    Volume growth: 6% YoYRevenue less fuel growth: 7% YoY
    Intermodal
    Volume decrease due to trade/tariff uncertainty, oversupplied truck capacity, and competitor responses to the merger announcement. RPU comparisons benefited from abnormally high empty shipments last year.
    Volume growth: -2% YoYRevenue less fuel growth: grew YoYRPU less fuel growth: grew YoY
    Coal
    Weakening seaborne coal prices drove RPU lower. Stronger utility demand did not offset sustained weakness in export markets.
    RPU less fuel growth: -7% YoY

    Operational metrics

    23
    Amtrak host delays improvement
    26%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    underscoring our progress and unwavering commitment to precision, reliability

    Recrews reduction
    19%
    Q3 FY25

    Key highlights include a 19% reduction in recrews

    Intermodal train starts decrease
    12%since beginning of year
    YTD FY25

    12% decrease in intermodal train starts since the beginning of the year

    Merchandise carload growth
    5.5%
    Q3 FY25

    alongside a sequential improvement in intermodal service composite and a 5.5% merchandise carload growth.

    Fuel efficiency
    1.015% YoY gain
    Q3 FY25

    Operational metrics confirm the effectiveness of our fuel management strategy, which delivered an all-time quarterly record of 1.01, a 5% year-over-year gain.

    Train speed
    3%sequentially
    Q3 FY25

    Sequentially, train speed rose 3%, allowing us to store more locomotives while running a leaner, more reliable fleet.

    Wayside stops reduction
    6.7%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Wayside stops are down 6.7% year-over-year and 36% year-to-date, even as we expect 5% more axles daily.

    Axles daily
    5%
    Q3 FY25

    even as we expect 5% more axles daily.

    Revenue growth
    2%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    we achieved 2% year-over-year growth in both revenue and RPU in the quarter.

    RPU growth
    2%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    we achieved 2% year-over-year growth in both revenue and RPU in the quarter.

    Revenue vs. prior guidance
    approximately $75 millionshort of expectation
    Q3 FY25

    revenue was up, as I just discussed, but we were expecting approximately $75 million more revenue as we had guided to within the second quarter materials.

    Expenses growth
    2%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Expenses were up 2% on a 4% increase in GTMs

    Land sales
    $65 millionmore than last year
    Q3 FY25

    land sales, which were $65 million more than last year. In fact, the entire variance was driven by one large sale that closed at the very end of the quarter.

    Adjusted EPS
    $3.30
    Q3 FY25

    earned $3.30 per share.

    Productivity gains
    almost $500 million
    last couple of years

    harvesting almost $500 million of productivity. That's what's enabled us to kind of keep that cost profile flat over these last couple of years.

    Intermodal crew starts reduction
    14%
    YTD FY25

    year-to-date, we've reduced our intermodal crew starts by 14%.

    Shipments per crew start improvement
    11%
    YTD FY25

    Our shipments per crew start have improved by 11%.

    Horsepower per ton reduction
    23%vs 2019
    YTD FY25

    we're running year-to-date 23% less horsepower per ton.

    AC locomotive fleet percentage
    80%approaching 80% AC
    current

    we had roughly high teens percent of our locomotive fleet that was AC. And through those investments that we've been making every year systematically to upgrade our locomotive fleet from DC to AC, we're now approaching 80% AC.

    Eastern Ohio incident costs
    $13 million
    Q3 FY25

    Total costs attributable to the Eastern Ohio incident were $13 million

    Eastern Ohio incident recoveries
    $16 million
    Q3 FY25

    which included $16 million of recoveries under our property insurance policies.

    Restructuring charge
    $12 million
    Q3 FY25

    we recognized a $12 million restructuring charge in the quarter as we continue to rationalize our technology projects.

    Merger-related costs
    $15 million
    Q3 FY25

    we also recorded $15 million in merger-related costs, consisting primarily of legal and professional services as well as employee retention accruals.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Safety7.8% personal injury ratio improvement%
    Volume4% GTMs YoY%
    Operating ratio63.3%%
    Service metricsimproved
    Network fluiditystable
    Merger synergy metricsongoing
    Pricing vs rail inflationintact
    Fuel surcharge diesel pricereduced
    Labor productivity headcount6% fewer T&E%
    Tariff trade policy revenue impactuncertainty

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Louisville service/routeexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Union PacificProposed merger to create a unified coast-to-coast rail network.

    The regulatory review process is ongoing, and the company is focused on maintaining strong safety and service performance to ensure a smooth integration.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Intermodal volume pressure from merger-related competitive actionsnear and medium term

    volume decreased 2% YoY in Q3

    Mitigation: Providing fantastic service, leveraging network to bring freight back, competing vigorously on price and service

    Weakening export coal marketspersist certainly through the quarter and maybe into early next year

    RPU less fuel lower by 7% YoY

    Mitigation: Stronger demand in Utility segment partially offsetting

    Elevated claims expense and social inflationquarter-to-quarter volatility, resolution of some older claims

    claims expense was elevated, higher cost per incident

    Mitigation: Outstanding progress on safety initiatives, investing in safety camps and technology (wheel detection devices)

    Macroeconomic headwinds and uncertain demandnext several quarters

    revenue was approximately $75 million short of prior guidance, volume surges forecasted by partners didn't materialize

    Mitigation: Focus on controlling costs, maintaining strong safety and service

    Disruptions to automotive productionfourth quarter

    meaningful impact to production at several NS-served automotive plants

    Oversupplied truck marketongoing

    truck market remains oversupplied

    Mitigation: Superior rail service and network advantages

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Intermodal volume pressure from competitive responses

    Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26
    Currentdecreased 2% YoY in Q3
    Targetstabilization or recovery

    Why it matters

    This is a key headwind impacting top-line growth and is expected to intensify, directly affecting the company's ability to meet revenue expectations.

    We expect the impact to grow in the fourth quarter and continue to be a challenge over the near and medium term.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Quantify the Q3 drag from merger-related business losses, confirm if it's only intermodal, and assess future risk.

    Ed Elkins confirmed the impact started in late Q3 (September-ish), is primarily in domestic non-premium intermodal, and geographically focused in the Southeast. He expects it to be a headwind for a while but believes Norfolk Southern's superior route structure and terminal network will eventually win freight back. Mark George clarified it's mainly interline arrangements.

    We saw that start to really manifest itself toward the tail end of the quarter, call it, September-ish. And so it's going to manifest itself until we wrap around it year-over-year. It's certainly a minority of the business, and it's really focused geographically to this point in the Southeast.

    asked by Scott Group · answered by Ed Elkins

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Operational Excellence and PSR 2.0 Transformation

    The company highlighted its PSR 2.0 transformation, delivering measurable outcomes in safety, service, and cost structure. Examples include a 26% year-over-year improvement in Amtrak host delays and the launch of "Clarity Camps" for business excellence. The focus is on creating a safer, more reliable, and efficient network, with a new zero-based train service plan (version 3) contributing to these efforts.

    02

    Safety and Technology Investments

    Norfolk Southern emphasized continuous improvement in safety, with FRA personal injury ratio improving 7.8% and train accident ratio improving 27.7% year-to-date. Investments in next-level field technology, such as new wheel integrity systems and machine vision portals (8 total, 6 new algorithms), have led to the positive identification of over 40 wheel integrity defects, preventing potential derailments. These technologies feed war rooms staffed with employees for real-time problem solving.

    03

    Productivity Gains and Cost Control

    The company achieved significant productivity, moving 4% more Gross Ton-Miles (GTMs) with 6% fewer qualified T&E employees, representing a 7% spread. Key highlights include a 19% reduction in recrews and a 12% decrease in intermodal train starts since the beginning of the year. Fuel efficiency reached an all-time quarterly record of 1.01, a 5% year-over-year gain, driven by strategic sourcing and logistics, with a 23% reduction in horsepower per ton year-to-date vs. 2019.

    04

    Intermodal Market Dynamics and Competitive Response

    Intermodal volumes decreased 2% due to ongoing trade/tariff uncertainty🌐, oversupplied truck capacity, and intensified competitor activity following the proposed merger announcement. Management noted this impact began manifesting in late Q3, primarily in the Southeast, and is expected to grow in Q4 and persist in the near term. The company is leveraging its superior route structure and terminal network to compete vigorously and aims to win back freight.

    05

    Merchandise and Coal Market Performance

    Merchandise volume grew 6% year-over-year, driven by strong auto, chemical, and metals/construction markets, with revenue less fuel growing 7%. However, mix headwinds from commodities like natural gas liquids, sand, and scrap metal diluted overall RPU. Coal markets faced significant headwinds from weakening seaborne coal prices, leading to a 7% decline in RPU less fuel, which is expected to persist through Q4 and potentially early next year, though sequentially it should stabilize.

    06

    Merger Integration Philosophy

    Management stressed a deliberate and cautious approach to the proposed merger with Union Pacific, aiming to avoid integration hiccups. The focus is on maintaining strong safety and service performance at both companies as a foundation for a smooth integration, leveraging talent and learning from past lessons. The goal is to ensure the integration is done right, with an emphasis on preserving employment and retention.

    07

    Claims Expense and Social Inflation

    Despite overall safety improvements, claims expense was elevated due to the resolution of older claims and "social inflation," leading to higher costs per incident. Management acknowledged this volatility but highlighted ongoing efforts to mitigate incidents through safety programs, such as the Thoroughbred Academy, and technology, like the wheel inspection devices that have prevented over 40 derailments.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.