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    NUE
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    NUCOR CORP NUE

    Oct 28, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Nucor Q3 FY25 — Strong Shipments and Strategic Growth Drive Earnings Beat

    Nucor delivered a strong third quarter, surpassing guidance driven by robust steel mill shipments and effective cost management. The company is in the final phase of a multiyear capital investment campaign, with major projects nearing completion and new facilities ramping up, particularly in high-growth areas like data centers. Management remains committed to balancing strategic growth with significant shareholder returns, maintaining a strong credit profile, and positioning for long-term stability despite near-term seasonal and pricing headwinds.

    Highlights

    5

    • Generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and EPS of $2.63, exceeding guidance by $0.50 per share.

    • Achieved record rebar shipments in Q3, contributing to a 35% higher bar products backlog year-over-year.

    • Steel products backlog is 14% higher year-over-year, with custom engineered product lines extending into Q2 2026.

    • Long-term credit ratings upgraded to A3 by Moody's, making Nucor the only major North American steel producer with A- or A3 ratings from all three agencies.

    • Brandenburg plate mill achieved EBITDA positive results for Q3 and secured a large X70 API grade order for Q4/Q1.

    Concerns

    4

    • Steel mills segment pretax earnings decreased 6% sequentially due to lower profitability in sheet and plate, offsetting gains in longs.

    • Steel products operating profit was impacted by less favorable product mix, higher substrate pricing, and planned outage costs.

    • Q4 earnings are expected to be lower than Q3 due to seasonal effects, fewer shipping days, and two scheduled DRI facility outages.

    • Q4 is expected to see a decline in realized pricing within the steel mills segment, primarily driven by sheet.

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year Capital Expenditures
    $3.3 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Capital Expenditures
    decline by more than $0.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Consolidated Earnings
    lower than the third quarter
    high materiality
    High
    Realized pricing in steel mills segment
    decline
    medium materiality
    High
    Pricing in steel products segment
    remain stable
    medium materiality
    High
    Domestic steel demand
    stable
    high materiality
    High
    Kingman melt shop profitability
    EBITDA positive
    medium materiality
    High
    Lexington rebar micro mill profitability
    EBITDA positive
    medium materiality
    High
    West Virginia sheet mill ramp-up
    begin ramping up
    high materiality
    High
    Indiana Towers & Structures facility operation
    up and running
    medium materiality
    High
    Utah Towers & Structures facility operation
    up and running
    medium materiality
    High
    Pre-operating and start-up costs
    $100 million to $110 million
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Steel Mills
    Improved results in bar and structural steel groups were offset by lower profitability in sheet and plate. Strong demand for long products, subdued but stable demand for flats. Gaining market share.
    Pretax earnings decrease: 6% QoQSheet shipments: nearly matched record volumes in prior quarterSheet backlog tons: up 13% YoYBar products backlog: 35% higher YoYBerkeley division: all-time production record in SeptemberBar group: achieved another quarterly record for rebar shipments
    		———$793 million pretax earnings
    Steel Products
    Volumes held up better than expected. Operating profit impacted by less favorable product mix, higher substrate pricing, and planned outage costs. Coating activity remains robust.
    Pretax earnings decrease: from $392 million in Q2External shipments: increased 4% QoQBacklog: 14% higher YoYBacklog for custom engineered product lines: extends well into Q2 2026
    		———$319 million pretax earnings
    Raw Materials
    Primary driver of sequential decline was lower pricing, partially offset by lower operating costs.
    Pretax earnings decrease: from $57 million in Q2
    		———$43 million pretax earnings

    Operational metrics

    33
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.3 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Generated approximately $1.3 billion of EBITDA.

    EPS
    $2.63
    Q3 FY25

    Earned $2.63 of EPS.

    EPS beat guidance
    $0.50
    Q3 FY25

    Earnings for the third quarter exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by approximately $0.50.

    Adjusted net earnings
    $1.4 billion
    YTD

    Year-to-date, Nucor's adjusted net earnings are approximately $1.4 billion.

    Adjusted EPS
    $5.98
    YTD

    Year-to-date, Nucor's adjusted net earnings are approximately $1.4 billion or $5.98 a share.

    Capital expenditures
    $807 million
    Q3 FY25

    Capital expenditures totaled $807 million for the quarter.

    Capital expenditures
    $2.6 billion
    YTD

    Bringing our year-to-date total to $2.6 billion.

    Shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks)
    $230 million
    Q3 FY25

    Returned approximately $230 million to Nucor shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

    Shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks)
    nearly $1 billion
    YTD

    Bringing our year-to-date returns to nearly $1 billion.

    Shareholder returns as % of net earnings
    72%
    YTD

    72% of net earnings returned to shareholders.

    Total debt to capital ratio
    approximately 24%
    end of Q3 FY25

    Ended the third quarter with a total debt to capital ratio of approximately 24%.

    Cash balance
    $2.7 billion
    end of Q3 FY25

    Ended the third quarter with cash of approximately $2.7 billion.

    Pre-operating and start-up costs
    $103 million
    Q3 FY25

    Pre-operating and start-up costs for the third quarter were $103 million.

    Finished steel imports decrease
    nearly 11%YTD through August
    YTD through August

    Finished steel imports down nearly 11% year-to-date through August.

    Section 232 steel tariffs
    50%
    current

    Imports have decreased since the comprehensive 50% steel tariffs went into effect.

    Bar group rebar shipment records
    twice
    YTD

    The team has set quarterly rebar shipment records twice so far this year, first in Q1 and then again in Q3.

    Data center construction forecast
    60 million
    2025

    The Dodge Construction Network is forecasting 60 million square feet of data center construction in 2025.

    Data center construction growth
    30%over '24
    2025

    A 30% increase over '24.

    Data center permit applications
    54
    first nine months of the year

    The state of Virginia alone has seen 54 new data center permit applications in the first nine months of the year.

    Bridge and tunnel contract awards growth
    nearly 20%YoY
    current

    The American Road and Transportation Builders Association reports that bridge and tunnel contract awards are up nearly 20% year-over-year.

    IIJA highway projects unspent funds
    60%
    current

    60% of total funds allocated to the IIJA highway projects remain unspent.

    Shares repurchased
    4.8 million
    YTD through Q3 FY25

    Repurchased approximately 4.8 million shares.

    Average share repurchase price
    $126
    YTD through Q3 FY25

    At a weighted average price of approximately $126 per share.

    Conversion costs
    down 5%YoY
    YTD

    Cost year-over-year are down 5%.

    Plate market ADC trend
    up around 15%YoY
    current

    ADC based on the last data we got is trending up around 15% year-over-year.

    Plate shipments
    nearly as muchas all of last year
    first three quarters this year

    We've shipped nearly as much plate through the first three quarters this year as we did for all of last year.

    Expand Beyond EBITDA target
    $700 million
    long-term run rate

    Long-term run rate target for Expand Beyond EBITDA.

    Expand Beyond EBITDA
    $450 million
    FY25

    Analyst estimate for Expand Beyond EBITDA for this year, confirmed by management as 'doing fine' and 'hitting its clip'.

    Shareholder returns
    $13 billion
    last five years

    Returned $13 billion back to shareholders over the last five years.

    Shareholder returns as % of earnings
    Just under 60%
    last five years

    Given back around 60% of earnings over the last five years.

    Cash flow benefits from tax legislation
    $100 million
    2025

    The deferred tax benefits — the cash flow benefits this year in '25 will be around $100 million.

    West Virginia sheet mill build completion
    75%
    current

    We're at about 75% on the build.

    West Virginia sheet mill capital spending completion
    75%
    current

    In terms of capital spending, we're about to that same point now.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Safety—
    Unit cash cost—
    Growth project CAPEX first production—
    Production sales volume by metal and by mine—

    Orderbook & backlog

    6
    Sheet backlog tonsup 13%Q3 FY25

    up 13% YoY

    Bar products backlog35% higherend of Q3 FY25

    35% higher YoY

    Steel products backlog14% higherend of Q3 FY25

    14% higher YoY

    Moderated alongside typical seasonal ordering trends.

    Custom engineered product lines backlogextends well into Q2 2026Q3 FY25
    Joist and deck backlogsabout 25% higherQ3 FY25

    25% higher YoY

    Extend well into 2026.

    Plate backlog58% higherend of Q3 FY25

    58% higher YoY

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Pole productionlaunch
    Crawfordsville new galvanizing linemilestone

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Southwest Data ProductsAcquisition to enhance data center product offerings

    Enables Nucor to do things in the hot aisle that were not possible prior, contributing to Nucor's ability to supply 95% of steel components for data centers.

    SummitFirst acquisition in the towers and structures space

    Mentioned as the first acquisition in the towers and structures space, part of Nucor's strategy to expand into adjacent businesses.

    Capital programs

    8
    West Virginia sheet millunderway
    Spent to date: 75% (build and capital spending)

    Benefit: most state-of-the-art sheet mill

    Largest investment in Nucor's history, remains on schedule to begin ramping up by the end of next year. Most of the remaining 25% of spending is in labor.

    Kingman, Arizona melt shopunderway
    Spent to date: ramping production in Q3 FY25

    Benefit: strategically located in high-growth region with reliable access to local scrap supply, enhancing existing footprint in Western markets

    Began ramping production in Q3 FY25, on track to be EBITDA positive by Q1 2026.

    Lexington, North Carolina rebar micro millunderway
    Spent to date: ramping production in Q3 FY25

    Benefit: strategically located in high-growth region with reliable access to local scrap supply, enhancing existing footprint in Southeast markets

    Began ramping production in Q3 FY25, on track to be EBITDA positive by Q1 2026.

    Crawfordsville sheet coating facilityunderway

    Benefit: new galvanizing line

    Remains on track, processed first coil through new galvanizing line in Q3 FY25.

    Berkeley County sheet coating facilityunderway

    Remains on track.

    Alabama Towers & Structures facilityunderway

    Benefit: pole production in galvanizing operations

    Commenced pole production in Q3 FY25, one of four major projects completing by year-end.

    Indiana Towers & Structures facilityunderway

    Expected to be up and running mid-2026.

    Utah Towers & Structures facilityunderway

    Expected to be up and running by end of 2026.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Lower profitability in sheet and plateQ3 FY25

    6% QoQ decrease in steel mills segment pretax earnings

    Mitigation: Offset by improved results in bar and structural steel groups.

    Steel products operating profit impactQ3 FY25

    Impacted by less favorable product mix, higher substrate pricing, and planned outage costs

    Mitigation: Volumes held up better than expected with external shipments increasing 4% QoQ.

    Softer end-market conditions2026

    Expected flat or down for heavy equipment, ag, residential construction, and auto

    Mitigation: Factored into the 'stable' domestic steel demand outlook for 2026; Nucor is increasing capabilities to grow in these markets.

    New domestic supply absorptionNear-term

    Still being absorbed in the market

    Seasonal effects and operational factorsQ4 FY25

    Lower total volumes across all operating segments, five less shipping days, two scheduled DRI facility outages

    Decline in realized pricing in steel mills segmentQ4 FY25

    Anticipated decline, primarily driven by sheet

    Mitigation: Pricing in steel products segment expected to remain stable; low service center and internal Nucor inventories expected to lead to faster realization of higher pricing in Q1 2026.

    Global steel overcapacityOngoing

    Massive amounts of overcapacity that persist in the global steel sector

    Mitigation: Section 232 measures and ongoing trade enforcement (e.g., 50% steel tariffs) are curbing imports; tariffs must stay in place until fundamental changes occur.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Kingman melt shop and Lexington micro mill profitability

    Q1 2026
    CurrentRamping up operations
    TargetEBITDA positive

    Why it matters

    Indicates successful ramp-up of new capacity and contribution to earnings.

    We will continue ramping up operations over the coming months, with both projects on track to be EBITDA positive by the first quarter of 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Asked for more color on products driving Nucor's market share gains and any strategic changes.

    Leon highlighted the plate group (Brandenburg ramp-up), long products, and the commercial and construction solutions group targeting major developers/hyperscalers. He emphasized Nucor's ability to supply 95% of steel components for data centers, creating pull-through effects across product groups. John Hollatz added that joist and deck backlogs are 25% higher year-over-year, extending into 2026, driven by data centers and e-commerce.

    “With our Southwest Data Products acquisition, with our racking group, with the insulated metal panels as well as the breadth of the steel products that we make, we are now capable of making 95% of all steel components within the framework building and hot aisle containment within that data center.”

    asked by Alexander Hacking · answered by Leon Topalian

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Safety Performance

    Nucor is on track for its eighth consecutive year of lowering injury and illness rates, aiming for the safest year in company history in 2025. This achievement is particularly notable given the period of significant growth the company has experienced, reflecting a strong commitment to safety across its 33,000 team members.

    02

    Strategic Growth Initiatives

    The company is in the final phase of a multiyear capital investment campaign, with four major projects completing by year-end. These include the commissioning of two bar mill projects and the commencement of pole production at the Alabama Towers & Structures facility. Additionally, new sheet coating facilities at Crawfordsville and Berkeley County are on track, with Crawfordsville having processed its first coil through its new galvanizing line.

    03

    Data Center Market Focus

    Nucor is strategically positioning itself as a key supplier to the high-growth data center construction market, which is forecasted to see 60 million square feet of construction in 2025, a 30% increase over 2024. The company now supplies over 95% of all steel products for data centers, leveraging its comprehensive portfolio and accelerating domestic production of server cabinets and data center support structures to offer unique solutions to developers and hyperscalers.

    04

    Trade Policy Impact

    Federal actions, including Section 232 measures and ongoing trade enforcement, have resulted in an 11% year-to-date decrease in finished steel imports through August. Nucor advocates for continued tariffs to counteract massive global overcapacity and is pleased with recent ITC rulings on corrosion-resistant steel and ongoing investigations into rebar imports, which help level the playing field for the American steel industry.

    05

    Capital Allocation Philosophy

    Nucor maintains a disciplined capital allocation framework, balancing long-term growth investments with meaningful shareholder returns and a strong investment-grade credit profile. The company returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders year-to-date, representing 72% of net earnings, and saw its long-term credit ratings upgraded by Moody's to A3, making it the only major North American steel producer with A- or A3 ratings from all three agencies.

    06

    West Virginia Sheet Mill Progress

    The new sheet mill in West Virginia, Nucor's largest investment, is approximately 75% complete in terms of both build and capital spending. It remains on schedule to begin ramping up by the end of 2026, leveraging an experienced team and state-of-the-art equipment to serve an underserved region with strong customer demand, promising unparalleled capabilities in the industry.

    07

    Pacific Northwest Micro Mill Decision

    Nucor decided not to pursue a new rebar micro mill project in the Pacific Northwest region. This decision was based on prudent capital allocation, as the company can adequately serve the Western U.S. and Canadian markets from its current footprint, including the Kingman, Arizona melt shop and Utah facility, due to superior cost and supply chain advantages. The existing Seattle mill will continue to operate.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.