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    NUE
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    NUCOR CORP NUE

    Jan 27, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Nucor Q4 FY25 — Strong Backlogs and Project Ramp-ups Drive Optimistic 2026 Outlook

    Nucor concluded FY25 with strong operational momentum, driven by record safety performance and the successful completion and ramp-up of several strategic growth projects. The company enters 2026 with robust backlogs and an optimistic outlook for increased shipments and improved margins, particularly as trade policies continue to support domestic steel demand. Management remains committed to a balanced capital allocation framework, prioritizing value-creating growth and significant shareholder returns, while navigating elevated start-up costs for new facilities.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved lowest injury and illness rate in company history in 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of improvement.

    • Steel mills segment backlog up nearly 40% year-over-year, and steel products backlog up 15% year-over-year.

    • Completed major projects including new rebar micro-mill, melt shop, Towers & Structures facility, and galvanizing/prepaint lines, all on track for positive EBITDA run rates within the year.

    • Returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share buybacks, representing approximately 70% of net earnings.

    • Expected $500 million additional EBITDA contribution in 2026 from recently completed projects and Brandenburg progress.

    Concerns

    3
    • Reported negative free cash flow in 2025, though described as an intentional result of aggressive growth initiatives.

    • Pre-operating and start-up costs are expected to remain elevated in 2026 as new projects come online.

    • Interest rate-sensitive markets like automotive and residential construction have yet to see much improvement.

    Guidance & targets

    15
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Domestic steel demand
    Slightly up relative to 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Import share of U.S. finished steel market
    Continue to trend at or below 14-16%
    high materiality
    High
    Steel mill shipments
    Increase approximately 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Capital expenditure
    $2.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Pre-operating and start-up costs
    Remain elevated
    medium materiality
    High
    Free cash flow
    Meaningfully higher
    high materiality
    High
    Consolidated earnings
    Higher
    high materiality
    High
    West Virginia sheet mill construction
    Completion by year-end
    high materiality
    High
    Berkeley County galvanizing line
    Commissioning planned for mid-2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Indiana utility pole production facility
    Expected to begin full operations in the second quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    Utah greenfield project
    On track for completion in 2027
    medium materiality
    High
    Lexington and Kingman operations EBITDA
    EBITDA positive by the end of the first quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    Lexington and Kingman operations ramp-up
    Fully ramped by the end of the year
    medium materiality
    High
    Quarterly dividend
    $0.56 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    EBITDA contribution from completed projects
    $500 million additional contribution
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Steel Mills
    Pretax earnings declined sequentially due to seasonal effects, fewer shipping days, and planned/unplanned outages. Gains in bar and structural pricing were offset by lower sheet and plate pricing, though sheet prices began to rise in November and December.
    Shipment volumes: declined 8% sequentiallyAverage realized pricing: improved in bar and structural groupsAverage realized pricing: lower in sheet and plate groups
    -35%$516 million pretax earnings
    Steel Products
    Pretax earnings declined sequentially, consistent with the steel mills segment. Volume decline was largely driven by typical seasonal trends in the rebar fabrication business.
    Pretax earnings: down from $319 million in Q3Volumes: declined sequentially across portfolioRebar fabrication business: accounted for roughly half of sequential volume decline
    $230 million pretax earnings
    Raw Materials
    Pretax earnings declined primarily due to the impact of two scheduled outages at DRI facilities. Earnings are expected to improve modestly in Q1 FY26 following successful completion of these outages.
    Pretax earnings: down from $43 million in prior quarter
    $24 million pretax earnings

    Operational metrics

    20
    Adjusted net earnings per share
    $1.73
    Q4 FY25

    Excludes $0.09/share of charges related to one-time noncash asset impairments.

    Adjusted net earnings
    $400 million
    Q4 FY25

    Excludes $27 million of charges related to one-time noncash asset impairments.

    Adjusted net earnings per share
    $7.71
    FY25

    Excludes $0.10/share of charges primarily related to closing or repurposing facilities.

    Adjusted net earnings
    $1.8 billion
    FY25

    Excludes $23 million of charges primarily related to closing or repurposing facilities.

    EBITDA
    $918 million
    Q4 FY25

    Company-wide EBITDA.

    EBITDA
    $4.2 billion
    FY25

    Company-wide EBITDA.

    Capital reinvested
    $3.4 billion
    FY25

    Majority went to projects completed in 2025 or later in 2026.

    Shareholder returns
    $1.2 billion70% of net earnings
    FY25

    Through dividends and share buybacks.

    Cash balance
    $2.7 billion
    End of FY25

    Providing ample liquidity.

    Pre-operating and start-up costs
    $496 million
    FY25

    Total costs for 2025.

    Capital spending and acquisitions
    $9.5 billion
    Past 3 years

    Total investment over the past three years.

    Shareholder returns
    $6 billion73% of net earnings
    Past 3 years

    Total returns over the past three years in dividends and share repurchases.

    Maintenance capital
    $800 million
    Annual

    Updated figure for ongoing non-expansionary capital, reflecting inflation and company size.

    Import share of U.S. finished steel market
    25%
    Last year

    Prior import share before significant reduction.

    Import share of U.S. finished steel market
    16%
    October 2025

    Reduced import share.

    Import share of U.S. finished steel market
    14%
    November 2025 (estimated)

    Estimated reduced import share.

    Mill utilization
    82-84%
    FY25

    Overall utilization across major product groups.

    Data centers steel demand supplied by Nucor
    95%
    Current

    Nucor supplies 95% of overall steel demand for the entirety of a data center.

    Domestic plate consumption growth
    15%YoY
    FY25

    Strong growth in domestic plate consumption.

    Plate imports decline
    20%
    FY25

    Decline in imports for cut-to-length plate.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    SafetyLowest injury and illness rate in history
    Production sales volume by metal and by mineIncrease approximately 5%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    5
    Steel mills segment backlogUp nearly 40%Q4 FY25

    YoY

    Steel products backlogUp 15%Q4 FY25

    YoY

    Structural group backlogMore than 15% above Q1 2025 recordQ4 FY25
    Plate backlogsUp 40%Q4 FY25

    YoY

    Rebar market backlogRecord backlogQ4 FY25

    Product announcements

    8
    ProductTypeDetails
    Rebar micro-millmilestone
    Melt shopmilestone
    Nucor Towers & Structures facilitymilestone
    Galvanizing and prepaint linesmilestone
    West Virginia sheet millmilestone
    Galvanizing linemilestone
    Utility pole production facilitymilestone
    Greenfield projectmilestone

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Nucor Data SystemsInternal facility conversion to support data center market

    Converted two existing steel products facilities to support the rapidly expanding data center market, demonstrating Nucor's ability to capitalize on new opportunities.

    Capital programs

    3
    West Virginia sheet millunderway

    Benefit: Supplying clean and advanced sheet steel for automotive, construction, industrial customers; 1 million tons of galvanizing capacity

    Largest single use of capital in 2026. Will produce exposed automotive grades and target consumer durables.

    Indiana greenfield utility pole production facilityunderway

    Benefit: Contributes to 4 highly automated production sites with national coverage in high-growth utility transmission tower market

    Construction continues, expected to begin full operations in the second quarter.

    Utah greenfield projectunderway

    Benefit: Contributes to 4 highly automated production sites with national coverage in high-growth utility transmission tower market

    Third greenfield project, remains on track for completion in 2027.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Weakness in interest rate-sensitive marketsOngoing

    Not much improvement

    Mitigation: Focus on strong end markets like infrastructure, data centers, energy.

    Elevated pre-operating and start-up costsFY26

    Expected to remain elevated

    Mitigation: Costs are associated with bringing several new projects online, particularly the West Virginia mill, which are expected to drive future profitability.

    Potential for increased imports due to pricing gapComing months

    HRC spreads of $200-$300/ton (historical), analyst notes current gap to East Asia at ~$200/ton ($1000 vs $800)

    Mitigation: Management believes current U.S. pricing is driven by robust domestic demand and a healthy economy, not solely tariffs. Expects import levels to remain low due to Section 232 tariffs and trade case determinations.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Lexington and Kingman operations profitability

    Q1 FY26
    CurrentRamping up, setting production records
    TargetEBITDA positive

    Why it matters

    Verifies the successful ramp-up and profitability of key new investments in the bar segment.

    We remain confident that both, quite frankly, our Lexington and Kingman operations will be EBITDA positive by the end of the first quarter, and we would expect both also to be fully ramped by the end of the year.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What is the current view on CapEx for 2027, particularly for West Virginia, and what is the latest thinking on ongoing non-expansionary CapEx, previously guided at $600 million?

    West Virginia will be completed by year-end 2026, with a small carryover into 2027. Ongoing maintenance capital, including safety, environmental compliance, and smaller efficiency projects, is now guided closer to $800 million per year due to inflation and company size, up from a past figure of $600 million.

    I would guide you to a figure closer to $800 million a year now for that just because of the inflation that we've seen in the last several years post-COVID and just the size of our company.

    asked by Lawson Winder · answered by Stephen Laxton

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Safety Performance Milestones

    Nucor achieved its lowest injury and illness rate in company history in 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of improvement. The final two months of the year were the safest ever recorded. This milestone occurred during a period of significant growth and transformation, demonstrating the team's prioritization of safety. The company's goal is to operate injury-free every day, aiming to become the world's safest steel company.

    02

    Strategic Growth and Project Ramp-ups

    The company's growth strategy, 'Grow the Core, Expand Beyond, and Live Our Culture,' saw significant progress in 2025. A number of projects transitioned from construction to ramp-up, including a new rebar micro-mill in Lexington, NC, a melt shop in Kingman, AZ, a Nucor Towers & Structures facility in Alabama, and galvanizing/prepaint lines in Crawfordsville. These projects are expected to be fully ramped and EBITDA positive within 2026, enhancing capabilities and shifting product mix towards higher-margin offerings.

    03

    Capital Allocation and Financial Strength

    Nucor maintains a balanced capital allocation framework focused on a strong balance sheet, value-creating growth, and meaningful shareholder returns. In 2025, the company reinvested $3.4 billion into the business and returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, representing 70% of net earnings. Despite historically sizable investments and returns, Nucor preserved low leverage and substantial liquidity, supporting its industry-leading A- and A3 credit ratings. The company expects meaningfully higher free cash flow in 2026 due to lower capital spending and incremental EBITDA from new projects.

    04

    Trade Policy and Market Dynamics

    Vigorous enforcement of trade remedy laws and the full reinstatement of Section 232 steel tariffs without exemptions have significantly reduced foreign import share of the U.S. finished steel market, from approximately 25% to an estimated 14% in November 2025. Nucor expects imports to remain low in 2026. The company advocates for continued strong trade policies, including the 'Buy America' provisions and addressing transshipment and subsidies in the upcoming USMCA review, to further strengthen domestic steel demand.

    05

    End-Market Demand Outlook

    Nucor sees continued strength in primary end markets such as infrastructure, data centers, energy, and energy infrastructure. Healthy demand is also noted in advanced manufacturing and border fence projects. However, interest rate-sensitive markets like automotive and residential construction have not yet shown significant improvement. Overall, domestic steel demand is expected to be slightly up in 2026, supported by strong backlogs across segments.

    06

    West Virginia Mill Strategic Importance

    The new sheet mill in West Virginia, scheduled for completion by year-end 2026, is strategically important. It will serve the largest sheet-consuming region in the U.S., where Nucor currently holds only 15-16% market share. The mill will produce high-value-added products, including exposed automotive grades (an area where EAF production has not broadly played before) and consumer durables, capitalizing on reshoring projects in the region. It will feature 1 million tons of galvanizing capacity.

    07

    Future Growth and M&A Strategy

    Beyond current major projects, Nucor plans to shift its growth focus towards less capital-intensive adjacencies, or 'Expand Beyond' investments. These opportunities will have steel centricity and connect to megatrends such as energy, energy infrastructure, data centers, towers, and structures. The company seeks businesses that offer synergies and value creation, similar to its C.H.I. acquisition, which expanded its presence in overhead doors and commercial markets.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.