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    OKE
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    ONEOK INC /NEW/ OKE

    Feb 25, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    ONEOK Q4 FY24 — Strong Earnings Growth and Strategic Expansion

    ONEOK delivered strong Q4 and full-year 2024 results, driven by strategic acquisitions and organic growth, significantly expanding its integrated operations and geographic footprint. The company provided robust 2025 guidance and a positive 2026 outlook, emphasizing continued synergy realization and high-return growth projects, while managing its leverage and shareholder return commitments.

    Highlights

    5
    • Higher Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings driven by strategic acquisitions and volume growth.

    • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA expected to increase 21% to $8.225 billion, excluding transaction costs.

    • 2026 outlook projects greater than 15% EPS growth and adjusted EBITDA growth approaching 10%.

    • Repurchased $172 million of stock in Q4 2024 and increased quarterly dividend by 4% in January 2025.

    • Announced strategic joint venture for a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal, providing a wellhead-to-water solution.

    Concerns

    3
    • Fourth quarter 2024 annualized run rate net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 3.6x, above the long-term target.

    • 2025 EPS guidance does not include an assumption for share repurchases, with the bulk of the $2 billion program back-weighted.

    • Analyst concern about potential overbuilding of LPG export capacity and falling spot rates by 2028, though management does not share this view.

    Guidance & targets

    18
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    EPS growth
    greater than 15%
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA growth
    approaching 10%
    high materiality
    High
    EPS midpoint
    $5.37
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $8.225 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Capital expenditures
    $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Rocky Mountain region natural gas gathering and processing volume growth
    up 8.5% at the midpoint
    medium materiality
    High
    Mid-Continent natural gas gathering and processing average annual volume
    nearly 2.5 Bcf per day
    medium materiality
    High
    Permian Basin natural gas processing volumes
    approximately 1.6 Bcf per day at the midpoint
    medium materiality
    High
    LPG export project completion
    early 2028
    high materiality
    High
    Permian processing plant relocation completion
    first quarter of 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Natural Gas Liquids segment adjusted EBITDA
    higher year-over-year
    medium materiality
    High
    Natural Gas Liquids segment raw feed throughput volumes
    higher year-over-year
    medium materiality
    High
    Refined Products and Crude segment refined products margins
    continued growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Refined Products and Crude segment crude oil volumes
    significant increase
    medium materiality
    High
    Denver pipeline capacity
    up to as much as 250,000 barrels a day
    medium materiality
    High
    LPG export project returns
    mid-teens to high teens
    high materiality
    High
    Natural Gas Liquids segment 2025 top-end guide
    $3.1 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Refined Products and Crude segment 2025 top-end guide
    $2.3 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Refined Products and Crude
    Contributed its first full year of earnings in 2024. Expected continued growth in refined products margins and significant increase in crude oil volumes in 2025.
    Higher earnings on long-haul crude oil pipelines
    benefiting from higher average refined product tariff rates, blending and marketing opportunities
    Natural Gas Liquids
    Expected higher year-over-year adjusted EBITDA and raw feed throughput volumes in 2025, driven by Permian and Rocky Mountain growth. Assumes high ethane recovery in Permian and partial in Mid-Continent, with continued opportunities in Rocky Mountain.
    NGL raw feed throughput volumes: up 8% (Rocky Mountain, 2024)Natural gas volumes processed: up 6% (Rocky Mountain, 2024)
    up 8%
    Natural Gas Gathering and Processing
    Williston Basin volumes benefit from increasing efficiencies, strong gas-to-oil ratios, and producer activity. Extended assets into Permian and Mid-Continent through acquisitions.
    Rocky Mountain region volume growth: up 8.5% at midpoint (2025)Rocky Mountain average volume: more than 1.7 Bcf per day (2025)Mid-Continent average annual volume: nearly 2.5 Bcf per day (2025)Permian Basin natural gas processing volumes: approximately 1.6 Bcf per day at midpoint (2025)Well connections with 3-mile laterals: 35% (2025)
    volume growth in all regions
    Natural Gas Pipelines
    Driven by strong demand for intrastate pipeline and storage services. Louisiana assets provide direct connectivity to major LNG exporters and industrial customers. Approximately 30 potential power plant expansion projects (4 Bcf per day incremental demand) across footprint.
    Exceeded high end of 2024 financial guidance (excluding divestitures and acquisitions)

    Operational metrics

    29
    Net income attributable to ONEOK
    $923 million
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 2024

    Net income attributable to ONEOK
    $3 billion
    FY24

    Full year 2024

    EPS
    $1.57
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 2024

    EPS
    $5.17
    FY24

    Full year 2024

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $2.2 billion
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 2024

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $6.7 billion
    FY24

    Full year 2024

    Adjusted EBITDA contribution from EnLink and Medallion acquisitions
    $375 million
    Q4 FY24

    Included in Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA

    Transaction costs related to EnLink and Medallion acquisitions
    $73 million
    Q4 FY24

    Included in Q4 2024 results

    Cash on hand
    $730 million
    2024-12-31

    As of December 31

    Cash on hand
    $773 million
    2024-12-31

    As of year-end, after opportunistic buybacks

    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
    3.6x
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 2024

    Share repurchases
    $172 million
    Q4 FY24

    Executed in Q4 2024

    Quarterly dividend increase
    4%
    Q1 FY25

    Increased in January 2025

    Total shareholder distributions
    nearly $2.5 billion
    FY24

    Through dividends and share repurchases

    Adjusted EBITDA growth streak
    11 consecutive years
    FY25

    As of 2025 guidance

    2024 Synergies (original target)
    $175 million
    FY24

    Original target for 2024, exceeded during the year.

    2025 Incremental Synergies
    $250 million
    FY25

    Related to Magellan, Medallion, EnLink acquisitions.

    2025 Magellan Synergies (additional)
    $125 million
    FY25

    Additional synergies related to Magellan in 2025, layered on top of prior achievements.

    Denver pipeline initial commitments
    35,000 barrels per day
    future

    Initial commitments for Denver pipeline expansion.

    LPG export terminal capacity
    400,000 barrels per day
    future

    Initial capacity of the JV export terminal.

    LPG export terminal expandability
    beyond 400,000 barrels a day
    future

    Expandable capacity for the LPG export terminal.

    Power plant expansion projects
    30
    future

    Potential projects across footprint.

    Incremental demand from power plant expansion projects
    more than 4 Bcf per day
    future

    Potential incremental demand from power plant expansion projects.

    Industry LNG export capacity added
    16 Bcf a day
    recent

    Recently added industry LNG export capacity.

    Industry LNG export capacity expansion target
    around 30 Bcf
    future

    Expected expansion of industry LNG export capacity.

    Natural gas demand growth
    plus 20%, maybe 25%
    future

    Expected future growth in natural gas demand.

    Previous leverage guidance
    3.9%
    FY25

    Previous guidance for exiting 2025 leverage.

    Leverage guidance
    3.5x
    FY26

    New guidance for 2026 leverage.

    Crude trucking cost reduction
    lower crude trucking cost
    ongoing

    Synergy from EnLink/Medallion integration by optimizing routes and bringing product closer to wellhead.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    D c efficiency rig activity35%
    FCF shareholder distributionsnearly $2.5 billionUSD

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Share repurchase program$2 billionQ4 FY24

    Board approved program over the next few years; $172 million repurchased in Q4 2024; bulk of the program expected to be back-weighted to the final two years.

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    EnLink MidstreamAcquisition of natural gas gathering and processing assets, extending presence in Permian Basin and Mid-Continent.

    Began consolidating in October 2024. Driving significant earnings growth and synergy opportunities.

    Medallion MidstreamAcquisition of crude oil gathering infrastructure.

    Began consolidating in October 2024. Driving significant earnings growth and synergy opportunities, particularly in crude oil gathering.

    Magellan Midstream PartnersAcquisition of refined products and crude oil businesses.

    Driving significant earnings growth and synergy opportunities, particularly in refined products and crude.

    MPLXJoint venture to construct a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal and pipeline.

    Strategic project to provide a wellhead-to-water solution for customers, with brownfield economics and expandable capacity.

    Capital programs

    5
    LPG export terminal and pipelineannounced
    Funding: joint venture with MPLX

    Benefit: 400,000 barrels per day LPG export capacity

    Strategic joint venture with MPLX to construct a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal in Texas City, Texas, and a pipeline connecting ONEOK's Mont Belvieu storage facility to the new terminal. Brownfield economics and proximity to existing infrastructure reduce cost.

    Medford fractionation facilityunderway

    Benefit: additional NGL fractionation capacity

    In its heavy build stage in 2025.

    Denver refined products pipeline expansionunderway

    Benefit: 35,000 bpd initial commitments, expandable to 250,000 bpd

    Refined products pipeline expansion into the Denver market, in full swing in 2025. Will contribute partial year benefit in 2026.

    150 MMcf/d natural gas processing plant relocationunderway

    Benefit: 150 MMcf/d processing capacity in Permian Basin

    Relocating a legacy EnLink natural gas processing plant from North Texas to the Permian Basin.

    Easton Energy asset connectionsunderway

    Benefit: connections to Houston-based system for additional synergies

    Acquired Easton Energy assets are being connected to the Houston-based system to realize additional synergies, expected to be completed in 2025.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio above targetQ4 FY24

    3.6x

    Mitigation: Mindful to make sure that we get our debt metrics in line with our goals; bulk of the $2 billion [share repurchase] will be back weighted as we get in the final 2 years as our metrics have hit our goals from a debt metric side.

    Potential overbuilding of LPG export capacityby 2028

    spot rates could fall significantly

    Mitigation: Management does not share the view that docks are going to be overbuilt when we get out into the 2028 time frame; significant amount of LPGs be able to come on the market from Permian; already control a significant amount of that volume.

    Capital intensity peak in 20252025

    peak here in '25

    Mitigation: Baseline will come down over '26 and into '27 after major projects complete; will be higher than it would have been prior to the EnLink and Medallion acquisitions due to larger company size.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Synergy realization from Easton connections

    2025
    CurrentProjects are already underway
    TargetAdditional synergies

    Why it matters

    Successful integration of Easton assets is key to realizing expected synergies and enhancing connectivity to Houston-based system, contributing to 2026 outlook.

    We also expect increasing contributions from the acquired Easton Energy assets as we complete connections to our Houston-based system in 2025, helping us to realize additional synergies.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What are the key drivers for the 2025 to 2026 guidance bridge, beyond project contributions, including synergies, volume, and pricing assumptions?

    The bridge is primarily driven by the full benefit of synergy capital spent in 2025, particularly connecting Easton assets to Mont Belvieu and Houston Ship Channel, and other projects wrapping up in late 2025/early 2026.

    We'll get that full benefit into 2026. We'll start to see some of these other projects wrap up in later 2025 or early 2026 and contributing benefit.

    asked by Theresa Chen · answered by Walter Hulse

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Company Transformation and Strategic Advantage

    ONEOK has transformed over the past two years through intentional and disciplined growth, creating a more regionally diversified product and service offering. This has enhanced its resilience and positioned it as a leader in energy transition, with a focus on integrated operations, scale, and innovation.

    02

    Expanded Operations and Geographic Diversity

    The company has significantly grown its integrated operations, adding refined products, crude oil transportation, and crude oil gathering to its value chain. This has extended its presence in the Permian Basin and Louisiana, enhancing connectivity with key producers and market centers.

    03

    Organic Growth and Key Projects

    ONEOK prioritizes organic growth, expanding its asset base with NGL pipeline expansions in the Bakken and Permian, additional NGL fractionation capacity, refined products pipeline expansions into Denver, and natural gas storage expansions. The recently announced LPG export project JV with MPLX will provide an integrated NGL wellhead-to-water solution.

    04

    Synergy Realization and Future Opportunities

    The company expects approximately $250 million of incremental commercial and cost synergies in 2025 from the Magellan, Medallion, and EnLink acquisitions, building on realized synergies from 2024. Numerous unannounced project opportunities are in development, including interconnections, expansions, and debottlenecking projects driven by AI-driven data centers and LNG demand.

    05

    Shareholder Value and Financial Discipline

    ONEOK remains committed to returning value to investors through a sustained and growing dividend (4% increase in Q1 2025), high-return growth projects, and financial flexibility, including a $2 billion share repurchase authorization. The company has achieved 11 consecutive years of adjusted EBITDA growth.

    06

    Natural Gas Demand Tailwinds

    The industry is seeing significant demand tailwinds for natural gas, with 16 Bcf/day of LNG export capacity recently added, expected to expand to 30 Bcf/day. Additionally, coal plant conversions and AI-driven data centers are projected to drive 20-25% growth in natural gas demand, which also benefits NGLs.

    07

    Operational Excellence and Employee Dedication

    Management highlighted the critical role of employees in achieving this transformation, emphasizing their focus on safety, service, and innovation. The team's commitment was particularly evident during recent severe cold weather, ensuring reliable service.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.