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    PCG
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    PG&E Q1 FY26 earnings call PCG

    Apr 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    PG&E Corporation Q1 FY26 — Strong Start, Reaffirmed Guidance, and Wildfire Reform Focus

    PG&E delivered a strong first quarter, reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance and multi-year growth targets. The company continues to make progress on customer affordability through rate reductions and operational efficiencies, while advancing its wildfire mitigation and system hardening plans. Management remains focused on constructive wildfire reform in California, emphasizing the need for a long-term solution that quantifies tail risk and supports capital attraction for infrastructure investments.

    Highlights

    5
    • Reported Q1 FY26 core earnings per share of $0.43, up $0.10 from Q1 FY25.

    • Reaffirmed full-year 2026 core EPS guidance of $1.64 to $1.66, implying 10% growth over 2025 at midpoint.

    • Electric rates lowered for the fifth time since January 2024, with rates down 23% for most vulnerable residential customers and 13% for other residential customers.

    • Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant received a 20-year license extension from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

    • Large load projects in final engineering stage increased to 4.6 GW, with customer interest exceeding an additional 10 GW from the third cluster study.

    Concerns

    1
    • Potential reevaluation of the entire capital allocation plan if progress towards reforming the wildfire risk model stalls or if a minimum outcome for tail risk quantification is not achieved.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Core EPS
    $1.64 to $1.66
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS Growth
    9% plus annually
    high materiality
    High
    New Equity Issuance
    0 new equity issuance needs
    high materiality
    High
    Customer Bill Growth
    0% to 3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Parent Debt Financing
    net $2 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Dividend Payout Ratio
    20%
    medium materiality
    High
    Large Load Online Capacity
    about 1.8 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-term Nonfuel O&M Reductions
    2% to 4%
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    20
    Core EPS
    $0.43up $0.10 YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Reported for the quarter.

    Core EPS
    $0.33
    Q1 FY25

    Derived from Q1 FY26 EPS of $0.43, which was up $0.10 from Q1 FY25.

    EPS Contribution from Customer Capital Investments
    $0.06
    Q1 FY26

    Contribution to core EPS.

    EPS Contribution from Capital Plan & CPUC ROE
    $0.02
    Q1 FY26

    Reflects ongoing execution of capital plan and associated return on rate base.

    EPS Benefit from 2023 GRC Application
    $0.04
    Q1 FY26

    Benefit related to February's final commission decision.

    EPS Contribution from Nonfuel O&M Savings
    $0.02
    Q1 FY26

    Additional contribution to core EPS.

    EPS Impact from Redeployment into Business
    -$0.01
    Q1 FY26

    Partially offset O&M savings.

    EPS Impact from Timing and Other
    $0.03
    Q1 FY26

    Tailwind compared to prior year.

    Electric Rate Reduction (Vulnerable Residential)
    23%
    Since January 2024

    For most vulnerable residential customers.

    Electric Rate Reduction (Other Residential)
    13%
    Since January 2024

    For other residential customers, about $300 less per year.

    Avoided Unplanned Customer Outage Minutes
    12 million
    2025

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    Avoided Unplanned Customer Outage Minutes
    4 million
    Q1 2026

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    Good Catches from Continuous Monitoring
    1,484
    Since beginning of 2025

    Sensor data flagged developing weaknesses or active events.

    Potential Ignitions Avoided
    23
    Since beginning of 2025

    Identified through continuous monitoring.

    Capital Spend Savings from Early Detection
    $8 million
    Over 5-quarter period (since Jan 2025)

    Through lower cost repairs due to continuous monitoring.

    Expense Savings from Early Detection
    $1 million
    Over 5-quarter period (since Jan 2025)

    By reducing time spent responding to emergency asset failures due to continuous monitoring.

    Annual Nonfuel O&M Savings from Technology
    $24 million
    This year alone

    From leveraging satellite and LiDAR for inspections.

    Parent-level Junior Subordinated Notes Issued
    $1 billion
    February 2026

    Opportunistically addressed 2027 parent funding needs.

    Utility First Mortgage Bonds Issued
    $2.2 billion
    February 2026

    Covered roughly half of 2026 utility debt needs.

    CAISO Transmission Projects Awarded Value
    $4.16 billion
    2025-2026 planning

    Total value for 25 projects awarded to PG&E.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debtmid-teens%
    Rto market structure review25 projectscount
    Contracted gw under executed ppas22 gigawattsGW
    Nuclear capacity uprates ptc gearing20-year license extensionyears
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas4.6 gigawattsGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    5
    Large Load Projects in Final Engineering Stage4.6 gigawattsQ1 FY26

    increased from year-end update

    Customer Interest from Third Cluster Study10+ gigawattsQ1 FY26

    Spanning multiple regions, including Silicon Valley and Central Valley; diversified demand.

    New Resources Added to CA Grid33 gigawattsSince 2020
    New Resources Added to CA Grid7 gigawatts2025 alone
    CPUC Procurement Orders Under Contract22 gigawattsThrough 2029

    Capital programs

    6
    5-year Capital Planunderway$73 billion

    No change to the plan; includes CAISO transmission projects.

    Incremental Customer Investment Opportunityannouncedat least $5 billion

    Opportunity outside the current $73 billion plan, with flexibility on how and when to pursue.

    Undergrounding Plan (Current)underway
    Spent to date: over 1,200 miles

    Benefit: 1,900 miles completed

    Expected to be completed by end of 2027; has avoided over $100 million in maintenance spend to date.

    10-year Undergrounding Plan (Proposed)announced
    Start: 2028

    Benefit: approximately 5,000 miles

    On track to file with the OEIS in Q3 FY26; combined with other hardening, totals nearly 11,000 miles through 2037.

    Overhead Hardeningunderway

    Benefit: additional 4,000 miles

    Part of planned system hardening, combined with undergrounding.

    CAISO Transmission Projectsawarded$4.16 billion

    Benefit: 25 projects

    Awarded for '25-'26 planning; all projects are built into the $73 billion capital plan.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Wildfire Liability Reform UncertaintyLegislative session through August

    Status quo is neither sustainable nor affordable

    Mitigation: Actively engaging with policymakers, advocating for a 'whole of society' solution that quantifies tail risk and supports capital attraction; prepared to reevaluate capital allocation if progress stalls.

    Diablo Canyon Extended Operations Beyond 2030Beyond 2030

    Requires further action by the state

    Mitigation: Highlighting the plant's critical role in reliability and clean energy goals, and the significant cost benefits for customers.

    Potential for Shareholder Contributions in Wildfire ReformLegislative session through August

    Unacceptable if legislative package does not improve status quo

    Mitigation: Will evaluate the totality of any legislative package; contributions would be unacceptable if there is no dramatic improvement to the status quo.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How would PG&E's capital allocation, specifically buybacks, be affected if wildfire legislation makes some progress but isn't a 'Goldilocks scenario' or if key aspects are pushed to 2027?

    Patti Poppe reiterated encouragement regarding current legislative progress and the importance of a minimum outcome that allows shareholders to model and quantify tail risk. She emphasized the value of the investor-owned utility model for attracting low-cost capital. While bullish on the current capital allocation plan, she stated that if a minimum outcome is not achieved, all aspects of the financial plan would be on the table for reevaluation, but did not specify which elements would be prioritized.

    if that doesn't occur, if we don't get a minimum outcome that's essential, then obviously, we'll have to look at and we will not avoid looking at our entire capital allocation plan, the whole financial plan.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Patricia Poppe

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Wildfire Mitigation and Legislative Progress

    PG&E continues to prioritize wildfire mitigation, with operational measures like PSPS and EPSS, alongside long-term infrastructure hardening plans. The company plans to file a 10-year undergrounding plan with the OEIS in Q3 FY26, covering approximately 5,000 miles for years 2028-2037. Combined with existing plans, this would result in nearly 11,000 miles of system hardening through 2037, covering over three-quarters of high-fire threat miles. Management is encouraged by the CEA's report and ongoing legislative discussions for a 'whole of society' wildfire solution, emphasizing the cost of inaction and the need for a model that works for all stakeholders.

    02

    Customer Affordability and Rate Reductions

    The company has made significant strides in customer affordability, implementing its fifth electric rate reduction since January 2024. This has resulted in a 23% rate decrease for the most vulnerable residential customers and a 13% decrease for other residential customers, translating to approximately $300 less per year. This progress is attributed to PG&E's 'simple affordable model,' which aims for 0% to 3% long-term customer bill growth, driven by O&M reductions, efficient financing, and rate-reducing load growth.

    03

    Large Load Growth and Data Center Opportunities

    PG&E is seeing healthy forward momentum in rate-reducing large load growth, with projects in the final engineering stage increasing to 4.6 GW. The third cluster study revealed customer interest exceeding an additional 10 GW across multiple regions, including Silicon Valley and the Central Valley, with demand remaining diversified. The company emphasizes that this growth is rate-reducing, contributing to affordability by potentially lowering electric bills by 1% or more per gigawatt of new data center load, while also supporting job creation and tax revenue.

    04

    Continuous Monitoring and Operational Efficiency

    PG&E is leveraging continuous monitoring, using sensors, smart meters, analytics, and machine learning, to shift from reactive maintenance to proactive risk management. This initiative helped avoid approximately 12 million unplanned customer outage minutes in 2025 and another 4 million minutes in Q1 2026. Since early 2025, 1,484 'good catches' identified developing weaknesses, preventing 23 potential ignitions. This approach also saved an estimated $8 million in capital spend and over $1 million in expenses by enabling lower-cost repairs and reducing emergency response times.

    05

    Financial Strategy and Credit Rating Progress

    The company's 5-year $73 billion capital plan through 2030 and financing plan remain unchanged, built on conservative assumptions including no new common equity through 2030. PG&E is focused on achieving investment-grade ratings, targeting FFO to debt in the mid-teens and a 20% dividend payout ratio by 2028. Moody's recently revised its outlook to positive, reflecting improved credit trajectory. Achieving investment grade is expected to lower borrowing costs, generating hundreds of millions in customer savings not currently assumed in the plan.

    06

    Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant Operations

    The Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant received its final state permit approvals for extended operations through 2030 and a 20-year license extension from the NRC in early April. This underscores the plant's critical role in California's reliability and clean energy goals. While further state action is required for operation beyond 2030, the CPUC and independent studies have highlighted the significant cost benefits and billions of dollars in customer savings from keeping Diablo Canyon online.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.