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    PCG
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    PG&E Corp PCG

    Jul 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    PG&E Corporation Q2 FY26 — Strong Operational Performance and Reaffirmed Guidance

    PG&E Corporation delivered strong Q2 FY26 results, reaffirming its full-year core EPS guidance and multi-year growth targets. The company highlighted significant operational improvements, including enhanced safety, reliability, and customer affordability, driven by its 'simple affordable model' and continuous monitoring. A key focus remains the resolution of California's wildfire liability framework, which management views as critical for achieving investment-grade credit ratings and ensuring low-cost capital for customers, with a clear warning of capital reallocation if the framework remains insufficient.

    Highlights

    5
    • Core EPS of $0.40 for Q2 FY26 and $0.83 for H1 FY26, reflecting consistent execution.

    • Reaffirmed full-year core EPS guidance of $1.64 to $1.66, with the midpoint up 10% over 2025.

    • Data center pipeline expanded to over 12 gigawatts, indicating strong load growth opportunities.

    • Reliability improved 23% year-to-date versus last year, driven by fewer outages and faster restoration.

    • Achieved over $40 million in O&M savings year-to-date through targeted sourcing and procurement.

    Concerns

    2
    • Wildfire liability framework remains unresolved, posing a risk to capital allocation and long-term investment plans if not addressed durably.

    • Wildfire-related charges account for approximately $20 to $40 per month, or 14% to 19% of monthly bills, highlighting the cost of inaction on liability reform.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year core EPS
    $1.64 to $1.66
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS growth rate
    9% plus
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend payout ratio
    20%
    medium materiality
    High
    Annual customer bill growth
    0% to 3%
    high materiality
    High
    Equity financing needs
    Fully satisfied
    high materiality
    High
    Equity financing needs
    Fully satisfied
    high materiality
    High
    FFO to debt ratio
    mid-teens
    medium materiality
    High
    Dividend payout ratio
    20%
    medium materiality
    High
    Annual nonfuel O&M reductions
    2% to 4%
    medium materiality
    High
    Data center capacity online
    1.8 gigawatts
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    22
    Core EPS
    $0.40
    Q2 FY26

    Reflects consistent, disciplined execution.

    Core EPS
    $0.83$0.19 higher than midpoint H1 FY25
    H1 FY26

    Compared to prior year results impacted by December 2024 equity financing and October 2024 CPUC cost of capital Phase 2 decision.

    Customer capital investment contribution to EPS growth
    $0.09YoY
    H1 FY26

    Core driver of this year's earnings growth.

    O&M savings and redeployment contribution to EPS growth
    $0.03net
    H1 FY26

    Core driver of this year's earnings growth.

    Dividend payout ratio
    12%
    FY26

    Implied payout ratio for the current fiscal year, used as a baseline for the 20% target by 2028.

    O&M savings
    $40 million
    YTD FY26

    Achieved through targeted sourcing and procurement initiatives.

    Financing awarded over planning period
    $10 billionvs typical utility payout ratio
    Planning period

    Enabled by a disciplined capital allocation program and self-funded growth profile.

    Utility bond issuance
    $2.2 billion
    June

    Completed in June, contributing to total debt financing for the year.

    Total utility debt financing
    $4.4 billion
    YTD FY26

    Covers annual financing needs.

    Capital to expense ratio
    1.0
    FY25

    An improvement from prior periods, with peers at over 2.0.

    Capital to expense ratio target
    1.7
    by 2030

    Targeted improvement in the 5-year capital plan.

    Interim rate recovery proposal
    55%
    January 2027

    Proposed to smooth customer rates for the 2027 GRC.

    Interim rate recovery proposal
    75%
    January 2027

    Proposed to smooth customer rates for the 2027 GRC.

    Interim rate recovery proposal
    85%
    January 2027

    Proposed to smooth customer rates for the 2027 GRC.

    Residential bundled electric rates reduction
    23%
    since January 2024

    Reflects affordability improvements.

    Reliability improvement
    23%vs same period last year
    YTD

    Driven by fewer outages and faster restoration times.

    Avoided outage minutes
    nearly 20 million
    since January 2025

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    Avoided ignitions in high fire risk areas
    28
    since January 2025

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    Avoided emergency response hours
    over 5,000
    since January 2025

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    Savings from lower cost repairs
    $11 million
    since January 2025

    Achieved through continuous monitoring.

    High-definition cameras deployed
    over 650
    current

    Used for wildfire risk reduction and faster response.

    Faster response time with cameras
    18 minutesvs traditional methods
    current

    Enabled by automatic notifications to first responders.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debtmid-teens%
    Rto market structure reviewFERC's recent order to show cause
    Contracted large load capacity esas loasover 12gigawatts

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Data center pipelineover 12 gigawattsQ2 FY26

    up from 10 gigawatts (restated March)

    Includes new projects from 2026 cluster study. Threshold for inclusion in preliminary and final engineering stages raised; requires signed work performance agreement and ~10% financial commitment for final engineering.

    Capital programs

    1
    5-year Capital Planunderway$73 billion
    Funding: No additional equity financing required; equity needs fully satisfied through 2030. Enabled by current dividend payout ratio.

    Benefit: Supports double-digit earnings growth, safe and reliable service, and customer affordability.

    No change to the plan from prior quarters. Includes at least $5 billion of additional customer beneficial investment opportunities outside the base plan. $16 billion related to resiliency, $23 billion related to capacity and new business, and $20 billion is FERC-regulated capital.

    Risks & headwinds

    1
    Wildfire liability framework unresolved/insufficientThis year (for resolution)

    Wildfire-related charges account for approximately $20 to $40 per month, or 14% to 19% of monthly bills.

    Mitigation: Reevaluate capital allocation priorities and long-term investment plans if framework remains unresolved or insufficient.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Wildfire liability framework resolution

    Shortly after the legislative session (end of August)
    CurrentUnresolved, legislative session ongoing
    TargetDurable and financeable framework

    Why it matters

    Directly impacts capital allocation and long-term investment plans, crucial for investment grade and customer affordability.

    If the framework remains unresolved or insufficient, then we would need to reevaluate our capital allocation priorities and long-term investment plans.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    What specific legislative outcomes are needed for PG&E to avoid reevaluating its capital plan, and how quickly could the company pivot if the outcome is inadequate?

    Management requires a durable, financeable, predictable, and affordable legislative framework for wildfire liability that attracts low-cost capital. They stated there will be action in the event of legislative inaction or insufficient resolution, leading to a reallocation of the capital plan, with details to follow shortly after the legislative session.

    If the framework remains unresolved or insufficient, then we would need to reevaluate our capital allocation priorities and long-term investment plans.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Patricia Poppe

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Wildfire Liability Reform and Capital Allocation

    Management emphasized the critical need for a durable, financeable, predictable, and affordable legislative framework for wildfire liability in California. They stated that the current 5-year plan assumes the state will strengthen the framework, which is essential for attracting low-cost capital and maintaining customer affordability. If the framework remains unresolved or insufficient, the company would reevaluate its capital allocation priorities and long-term investment plans, stressing that inaction from the legislature would necessitate action from PG&E.

    02

    Data Center Load Growth and Pipeline Refinement

    The data center pipeline has grown to over 12 gigawatts, incorporating new projects from the 2026 cluster study. PG&E has refined its categorization for projects, now requiring a signed work performance agreement and a 10% financial commitment for inclusion in final engineering, enhancing confidence in project progression. The company aims to price this load correctly to be attractive to data centers while also reducing rates for existing customers, collaborating with FERC and CPUC on clear and durable frameworks.

    03

    Operational Excellence and Affordability Initiatives

    PG&E continues to demonstrate strong operational performance, with zero major fires linked to equipment for a fourth consecutive year and a 23% improvement in reliability year-to-date. The company has implemented five rate reductions in the past two years, with residential bundled electric rates down 23% since January 2024 for vulnerable customers. Continuous monitoring capabilities have been instrumental, avoiding nearly 20 million outage minutes and 28 ignitions since January 2025, while saving over $11 million in repair costs.

    04

    Financing Strategy and Investment Grade Progress

    The 5-year $73 billion capital plan through 2030 remains unchanged and does not require additional equity financing, with equity needs fully satisfied. The company completed a $2.2 billion utility bond issuance in June, bringing total debt financing to $4.4 billion for the year. PG&E is making progress towards investment-grade credit ratings, with S&P upgrading its rating to one notch below investment grade, citing reduced wildfire risk. Achieving investment grade is seen as critical for lower borrowing costs and customer bills.

    05

    Regulatory Updates and GRC Process

    PG&E is making steady progress in its 2027 General Rate Case (GRC), with hearings and opening briefs taking place. The company filed for interim rate recovery effective January 2027 to smooth customer rates and prevent price spikes, which would have no earnings impact but improve customer experience. For the Kincade and Dixie wildfire recovery rate cases, a proposed decision is still expected in November, following a settlement conference and evidence hearings in August.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.