Skip to content
    PCG
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    PG&E Corp PCG

    Oct 23, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    PG&E Q3 FY25 — Strong Safety Performance and Narrowed EPS Guidance

    PG&E delivered strong Q3 FY25 core EPS, narrowing its full-year guidance and introducing a robust 2026 outlook, driven by effective wildfire mitigation and operational efficiencies. The company continues to advance its significant capital plan without new equity through 2030, while navigating regulatory processes and leveraging a growing data center pipeline to enhance customer affordability and capital growth. Management emphasized a conservative planning approach to ensure consistent delivery for both customers and investors.

    Highlights

    5
    • Core EPS for Q3 FY25 reached $0.50, contributing to $1.14 for the first nine months.

    • Full-year 2025 EPS guidance narrowed to $1.49-$1.51, with a bias towards the midpoint, representing a 10% increase over 2024.

    • Introduced 2026 EPS guidance of $1.62-$1.66, indicating a 9% increase from the 2025 midpoint.

    • CPUC reportable ignitions are down over 35% from 2024 levels, with PG&E on track for a third consecutive year of zero structures destroyed in high-risk areas.

    • Achieved 1,000 miles of undergrounded power lines in high fire-risk areas, with costs reduced by 25% since inception.

    Concerns

    1
    • Modest net attrition in the data center pipeline's application and preliminary engineering phase since June, though final engineering projects continue to grow.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Core EPS
    $1.49 to $1.51
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 EPS
    $1.62 to $1.66
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS growth rate
    at least 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Average annual rate base growth
    9%
    high materiality
    High
    New common equity requirement
    does not require new equity
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend payout ratio
    20%
    medium materiality
    High
    Customer bills
    flat to down
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    14
    Core EPS
    $0.50
    Q3 FY25

    Core earnings per share for the third quarter.

    Core EPS
    $1.14
    9M FY25

    Core earnings per share for the first nine months of 2025.

    O&M cost savings contribution to EPS
    $0.05
    Q3 FY25

    Additional progress towards O&M cost savings goal.

    O&M cost savings contribution to EPS
    $0.08
    YTD FY25

    Additional progress towards O&M cost savings goal.

    Tax planning benefit to EPS
    $0.10
    Q3 FY25

    Benefit from smart tax planning due to a method change accelerating deductibility.

    Tax planning benefit to EPS
    $0.04
    YTD FY25

    Benefit from smart tax planning due to a method change accelerating deductibility.

    O&M cost reduction target
    2%met or exceeded for 3 years running
    Annual

    Company is confident in meeting or exceeding the target again this year.

    Capital to expense ratio
    $1.20vs $0.90 in 2024
    FY25

    Forecasted improvement in capital to expense ratio.

    CPUC reportable ignitions reduction
    over 35%vs 2024 levels
    YTD

    Ignitions running lower than any year since tracking began in 2015.

    Structures destroyed by CPUC reportable fires
    0third consecutive year
    Annual

    Achieved in high-risk areas under high-risk conditions.

    Undergrounded power lines
    1,000
    Cumulative

    Significant milestone achieved, with 25% lower cost than when started.

    Sensor devices deployed
    8,500builds on 10,000 last year
    FY25

    Advanced sensor capabilities for system-wide continuous monitoring.

    Customer bill reduction potential from data centers
    1% to 2%
    per GW

    Every gigawatt brought online offers this opportunity.

    Brand Trust increase
    highest annual increasevs U.S. utility peers
    Q2 FY25

    Compared to U.S. utility peers.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debtmid-teens%
    Regulatory rate base growth9%%
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas9.5GW

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Data center pipeline9.5 GWQ3 FY25

    modest net attrition in application/preliminary engineering phase since June

    Projects in final engineering stage continue to grow and advance; 1.6 GW in final engineering, ~95% expected online by end of 2030.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    City of San JosePartnered to identify land for data center development

    Identified more than 150 acres of land adjacent to existing infrastructure for data centers, supporting the city's competitive RFP.

    Capital programs

    4
    5-year capital planunderway$73 billion
    Funding: does not require new equity
    Start: 2026

    Benefit: supports average annual rate base growth of 9%

    Extended through 2030, supporting EPS growth of at least 9% each year.

    Helms hydro facility upgraderecently approved

    Benefit: at least 150 MW increase in generating capacity

    Included in the capital investment plan to improve capacity.

    Substation upgrade north of Sacramentounderway

    Benefit: more than doubles electric capacity and improves reliability

    Included in the capital investment plan to improve capacity and reliability.

    Grid edge meters deploymentunderway

    Benefit: 300,000 meters with distributed intelligence apps and advanced data processing

    Supports customer electrification and wildfire risk reduction.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Regulatory uncertainty regarding SB 254 Phase 22026

    potential legislative action in 2026 session

    Mitigation: Collaborating with key parties and state agencies; Governor Newsom's executive order for a 'whole of government' response.

    Stock valuation impacting capital allocationongoing

    current stock valuation

    Mitigation: Financing plan does not require new common equity through 2030; disciplined approach to capital allocation, considering reallocating capital towards immediate shareholder return if progress is not seen.

    Undergrounding procedural requirementsOctober 30, 2025 (commission meeting)

    concerns with some requirements and methodology

    Mitigation: Watching closely for commission direction; continuing to advocate for undergrounding as an affordable mitigation; included a bridging strategy in 2027 GRC.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    SB 254 Phase 2 Stakeholder Submissions

    Q4 FY25
    CurrentStakeholder abstracts due Nov 3, 2025
    TargetFull submissions by Dec 12, 2025

    Why it matters

    These submissions will inform the CEA's report and potential legislative action, shaping the future regulatory environment for wildfire risk.

    On the process front, we do -- we aren't sure what the CEA is going to share publicly. We do know just process-wise, the stakeholder abstracts are due November 3, right around the corner, full submissions by December 12. State agencies will submit final recommendations by January 30 and then that final study from the CEA April 1.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Will the steps and recommendations of the SB 254 process be made public, or will information only be available at the end?

    Management is unsure what the CEA will share publicly but provided key milestone dates: stakeholder abstracts by Nov 3, full submissions by Dec 12, state agency recommendations by Jan 30, and the final CEA study by April 1.

    On the process front, we do -- we aren't sure what the CEA is going to share publicly. We do know just process-wise, the stakeholder abstracts are due November 3, right around the corner, full submissions by December 12. State agencies will submit final recommendations by January 30 and then that final study from the CEA April 1.

    asked by Steven Fleishman · answered by Patricia Poppe

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Wildfire Mitigation and Safety Performance

    PG&E's physical layers of protection are proving effective, with CPUC reportable ignitions down over 35% from 2024 levels and lower than any year since 2015. The company is on track for a third consecutive year of zero structures destroyed due to CPUC reportable fires in high-risk areas. This performance is attributed to ongoing mitigations including undergrounding, vegetation clearing around transmission structures, and deployment of advanced sensor capabilities, with 8,500 new sensors installed this year building on 10,000 last year.

    02

    Undergrounding Progress and Strategy

    PG&E has completed 1,000 miles of undergrounded power lines in high fire-risk areas, achieving a 25% cost reduction since the program's inception. Management views undergrounding as the most affordable and effective way to deliver safety and resilience, particularly in areas experiencing frequent outages due to enhanced power line safety settings. The company continues to advocate for undergrounding and has included a bridging strategy in its 2027 GRC to maintain the current pace of 300 miles per year, pending the final decision on the 10-year undergrounding procedure.

    03

    Regulatory and Policy Environment (SB 254)

    The 2025 California legislative session concluded with enhanced protections from Senate Bill 254. This legislation improved AB 1054 by moving the disallowance cap date to the date of ignition, reducing investor exposure by billions, and establishing contingent contributions to the Wildfire Fund without upfront payments. The Wildfire Fund administrator is preparing an April 1 report with policy options for the 2026 legislative session, which Governor Newsom has prioritized with an executive order for a 'whole of government' response to wildfire risk.

    04

    Data Center Pipeline and Economic Impact

    PG&E's data center pipeline remains robust at over 9.5 GW, with projects in the final engineering stage growing and expected to be online by 2030. Most applications are for 100 MW or less, driven by the need for real-time speed for AI inference models in Silicon Valley. Each gigawatt brought online offers the opportunity to reduce electric bills by 1% to 2%, providing upside to the capital plan which conservatively includes only $300 million annually for this type of capital.

    05

    O&M Cost Reduction and Capital Efficiency

    The company has achieved non-fuel O&M savings exceeding its target for three consecutive years and is on track to meet or exceed its 2% reduction target again this year. These savings, driven by unit cost reductions in inspection processes and vendor contract renegotiations, contributed $0.05 to Q3 EPS and $0.08 year-to-date. PG&E also forecasts an improvement in its capital to expense ratio from $0.90 of capital per dollar of expense in 2024 to $1.20 in 2025.

    06

    Financial Strategy and Credit Metrics

    PG&E's financial plan is designed to not require new common equity through 2030 and prioritizes investment-grade ratings, targeting FFO to debt in the mid-teens. The company is targeting a dividend payout ratio of 20% by 2028, maintained through 2030, which offers financing flexibility. Fitch has already upgraded the parent company rating to investment grade, with ongoing conversations with Moody's and S&P focusing on regulatory environment progress.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.