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    PEG
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC PEG

    Feb 25, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Public Service Enterprise Group Q4 FY24 — Strong Earnings, Increased Capital Plan, and Growing Large Load Pipeline

    PSEG concluded FY24 with strong operating earnings, marking two decades of consistent performance. The company significantly increased its multi-year capital plan, driven by regulated investments and a surge in large load demand, particularly from data centers. While facing upcoming residential electric bill increases due to PJM auction results, PSEG emphasizes affordability and continues to pursue incremental nuclear revenue opportunities without the need for new equity.

    Highlights

    4
    • Achieved non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.68 per share for FY24, at the top of guidance and marking the 20th consecutive year of meeting or exceeding targets.

    • Increased 2025-2029 capital spending plan by $3.5 billion to $22.5 billion-$26 billion, supporting a PSE&G rate base CAGR of 6%-7.5%.

    • Reported a 12-fold increase in large load and data center inquiries, reaching 4,700 megawatts, with 25% already incorporated into PJM's 2025 peak load forecast.

    • Raised annual common dividend by $0.12 per share to $2.52 per share for 2025, marking the 14th consecutive annual increase.

    Concerns

    3
    • Residential electric bills will increase starting June 1 due to higher capacity prices from PJM's latest RPM auction.

    • PSE&G's pension and OPEB income was $0.02 per share unfavorable in Q4 2024 due to cessation of OPEB-related credits.

    • PSEG Power & Other reported a net loss of $0.18 per share in Q4 2024, compared to net income of $0.52 per share in Q4 2023.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Non-GAAP Operating Earnings per Share
    $3.94 to $4.06
    high materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP Operating Earnings CAGR
    5% to 7%
    high materiality
    High
    Enterprise Capital Spending
    $4 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital Spending Plan
    $22.5 billion to $26 billion
    high materiality
    High
    PSE&G Rate Base CAGR
    6% to 7.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Annual Common Dividend Rate
    $2.52 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    Regulated Capital Investment Plan
    $21 billion to $24 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Regulated Investments
    $3.8 billion
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    PSE&G
    Utility results were driven by the implementation of new electric and gas base distribution rates effective October 15, 2024, with Q4 reflecting seasonality of gas revenues. Full year 2025 comparisons will benefit from a full year of new rates. Weather variations have minimal impact due to the Conservation Incentive Program (CIP) decoupling mechanism.
    Net income (Q4 2024): $0.75 per shareNet income (Q4 2023): $0.58 per shareNon-GAAP operating earnings (Q4 2024): $0.75 per shareNon-GAAP operating earnings (Q4 2023): $0.59 per shareTransmission margin benefit (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.02 per shareDistribution margin increase (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.16 per shareDistribution O&M expense favorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.01 per shareDepreciation and interest expense rise (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.01 per share (depreciation), $0.02 per share (interest)Pension and OPEB income unfavorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.02 per shareTaxes and other favorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.02 per shareElectric customer growth (FY24): ~1%Gas customer growth (FY24): ~1%
    $0.75 per share
    PSEG Power & Other
    Net energy margin rose due to higher recontracting prices at nuclear, including the net impact of the nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) effective January 1, 2024. A significant portion of the increase in 2024 gross margin over 2023 was realized in the second half due to hedging.
    Net loss (Q4 2024): $0.18 per shareNet income (Q4 2023): $0.52 per shareNon-GAAP operating earnings (Q4 2024): $0.09 per shareNon-GAAP operating earnings loss (Q4 2023): $0.05 per shareNet energy margin rise (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.18 per shareO&M unfavorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.01 per shareInterest expense higher (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.02 per sharePension income and OPEB credits unfavorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.01 per shareTaxes and other favorable (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): $0.01 per shareNuclear fleet production (Q4 2024): 7.3 TWhNuclear fleet production (FY 2024): 31 TWhNuclear capacity factor (Q4 2024): ~86%Nuclear capacity factor (FY 2024): ~90%
    Net loss of $0.18 per share

    Operational metrics

    21
    Non-GAAP Operating Earnings per Share
    $3.68vs $3.48 in FY23
    FY24

    At the top of the 2024 guidance range, marking the 20th consecutive year of meeting or exceeding management's guidance.

    Non-GAAP Operating Earnings per Share
    $0.84vs $0.54 in Q4 FY23
    Q4 FY24

    Reported for the fourth quarter.

    Net Income per Share
    $3.54vs $5.13 in FY23
    FY24

    Reported for the full year.

    Net Income per Share
    $0.57vs $1.10 in Q4 FY23
    Q4 FY24

    Reported for the fourth quarter.

    Annual Increase in Base Rates
    1%
    Annual since 2018

    New base rates effective October 2024 represented an annual increase of about 1% per year since the last rate case in 2018.

    Gas Commodity Charge
    $0.33
    Winter 2025

    Lowered for the winter of 2025, representing the third supply charge reduction since January 2023.

    Combined Bill as % of Income (Medium Income)
    3%
    Current

    Combined bill still compares favorably to all other utilities in New Jersey and remains a leader across the nation on low share of wallet comparison.

    Combined Bill as % of Income (Low to Moderate Income)
    2%
    Current

    For low to moderate income customers that take advantage of payment assistance programs.

    Liquidity Available
    $2.6 billion
    End of Dec 2024

    Total available liquidity, including cash on hand.

    Cash Collateral Balance
    $250 million
    Dec 31, 2024

    Supported strong liquidity position.

    PSEG Power Debt Outstanding
    $1.65 billion
    End of 2024

    $1.25 billion of debt swapped to a fixed rate, mitigating fluctuations in interest rates through March 2025.

    Variable Rate Debt as % of Total Debt
    7%
    Year-end

    Low level of variable rate debt.

    FFO to Debt
    mid-teens range
    Forward-looking

    Expected to remain in the mid-teens range, providing comfort to support the 5-year capital plan without new equity.

    AMI Smart Meters Installed
    2.2 million
    Completed

    Completed on time and on budget as part of the advanced metering infrastructure program.

    Weather (Heating Degree Days)
    12% warmervs normal
    Q4 FY24

    Weather variations have a minimal impact on PSE&G's utility margin due to the conservation incentive program (CIP) mechanism.

    Nuclear Fleet Production
    7.3
    Q4 FY24

    Produced by the nuclear fleet during the fourth quarter.

    Nuclear Fleet Production
    31
    FY24

    Produced by the nuclear fleet for the full year.

    Nuclear Capacity Factor
    86%
    Q4 FY24

    Capacity factor for the nuclear fleet during the fourth quarter.

    Nuclear Capacity Factor
    90%
    FY24

    Capacity factor for the nuclear fleet for the full year.

    Zero Emission Certificate (ZEC) amounts
    May 2025

    The 0 emission certificate amounts earned by New Jersey nuclear units will conclude in May 2025.

    BGS Commercial and Industrial Rate
    $696
    Current

    Rate for commercial and industrial customers in the PSE&G zone, as cleared in the BGS auction.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$3.68USD per share
    Multi year capital plan$22.5 billion to $26 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growth$2.52USD per share
    Regulatory rate base growth6% to 7.5%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Large Load and Data Center Pipeline4,700 megawattsQ4 FY24

    over 12-fold increase from under 400 megawatts last year

    Includes both mature leads and initial inquiries; average project size is 100 megawatts; approximately 25% incorporated into PJM's 2025 system peak load forecast; responses provided in under 4 months on average.

    Capital programs

    4
    Clean Energy Future Energy Efficiency 2 programapproved$2.9 billion

    Benefit: Make investments at more customer premises to reduce energy usage, improve affordability, and reduce carbon emissions.

    Second phase of the BPU statewide energy efficiency framework, resulting in a meaningful increase to the program.

    Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) programcompleted

    Benefit: 2.2 million smart meters installed

    Completed on time and on budget.

    PSE&G Capital Spending Programexecuted
    Period spend: $3.6 billion

    Efficiently executed in FY24, slightly higher than the original plan of $3.4 billion due to continued execution of electric system reliability programs, gas infrastructure replacement, and energy efficiency programs.

    Regulated Capital Investment Planunderway$21 billion to $24 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: Expected to produce compound annual growth in rate base of 6% to 7.5%

    Rolled forward through 2029, representing a $3 billion increase from the prior plan ($18 billion to $21 billion). Driven by incremental reliability and resiliency investments under PSE&G's existing infrastructure programs and the CEF-EE II program.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Increased Residential Electric BillsStarting June 1

    Increase starting June 1

    Mitigation: Advocating for customer affordability, promoting energy efficiency programs, and payment assistance programs.

    PJM Market Reliability and Resource AdequacyLong-term

    Uncertainty regarding ability to attract generation in a timely fashion

    Mitigation: Advocating for policy changes to ensure resource adequacy and affordability; setting financial targets based on PTC floor.

    Cessation of OPEB-related creditsQ4 2024

    $0.02 per share unfavorable impact

    Mitigation: New deferral mechanisms for pension and storm expense implemented to increase predictability.

    Higher Interest ExpenseQ4 2024

    $0.02 per share higher (PSEG Power)

    Mitigation: PSEG Power has $1.25 billion of debt swapped to a fixed rate, mitigating fluctuations; low variable rate debt (~7% of total).

    Zero Emission Certificate (ZEC) amounts conclusionMay 2025

    ZEC amounts will conclude

    Mitigation: Pursuing incremental revenue opportunities at PSEG Nuclear to enhance long-term growth CAGR.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    4

    PSEG Nuclear incremental revenue opportunities

    Next quarter / ongoing
    CurrentDiscussions ongoing with multiple parties
    TargetProgress on contracting portions of nuclear output under long-term agreements

    Why it matters

    Could enhance the long-term EPS growth CAGR beyond the PTC-based range and support state economic development.

    We continue to pursue nuclear revenue growth opportunities at PSEG Nuclear that would be incremental. These opportunities to contract portions of our nuclear output under long-term contracts can also benefit the economic development interest of the state and helping to attract AI hubs to New Jersey.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Are commercial discussions for Artificial Island being delayed by recent FERC actions, and how does the complexity of behind-the-meter deals affect opportunities and timing, especially given the governor's ambitions?

    Management stated that commercial discussions are not being delayed by FERC actions, and interest remains strong. They view FERC's recent statements as favorable for flexibility and indicative of urgency, despite not providing complete answers. The governor's interest in alternative uses for the wind port also signals state support for such opportunities.

    I don't know that we necessarily expected that, and we got to wait for some. But I think directionally, what they said was favorable for the flexibility to do what you want to do, and those details are yet to be written.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Daniel Cregg

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    2024 Strategic and Regulatory Achievements

    PSEG successfully settled PSE&G's first electric and gas distribution rate case in six years, achieving a balanced outcome that recovers prudent investments and maintains affordability. The company also secured approval for $2.9 billion in its Clean Energy Future Energy Efficiency 2 program over six years, significantly increasing investment in customer premises. Additionally, PSEG efficiently executed a $3.6 billion capital spending program, completing the advanced metering infrastructure program on time and budget with 2.2 million smart meters installed, and implemented new deferral mechanisms for pension and storm expense to enhance financial predictability.

    02

    Growing Large Load and Data Center Demand

    PSEG has observed a significant increase in inquiries from large load and data center customers, with the pipeline growing over 12-fold from under 400 megawatts last year to 4,700 megawatts currently. This pipeline includes both mature leads and initial inquiries, with an average project size of 100 megawatts. Approximately 25% of these new business leads have already been incorporated into PJM's 2025 system peak load forecast, indicating strong and accelerating demand in New Jersey.

    03

    PJM Market Dynamics and Reliability Concerns

    Management expressed concerns about the long-term viability and reliability of the PJM market, questioning its ability to attract sufficient generation in a timely manner to meet growing demand. While acknowledging the near-term stability provided by potential pricing collars, the primary focus remains on ensuring resource adequacy and affordability for customers. The company noted that New Jersey is a net importer of electricity, especially during peak times, highlighting the need for continued discussion on energy policy.

    04

    Nuclear Fleet Strategy and Revenue Opportunities

    PSEG continues to pursue incremental revenue opportunities for its nuclear fleet, beyond the support provided by the Production Tax Credit (PTC) threshold. These opportunities involve contracting portions of nuclear output under long-term agreements, which could also support New Jersey's economic development by attracting AI hubs. Discussions with multiple parties are ongoing, and management views recent FERC actions as favorable for flexibility, indicating urgency in finding solutions for resource adequacy.

    05

    Financial Strength and Capital Allocation

    PSEG maintains a strong financial position, supporting its robust 5-year capital program without the need for new equity or asset sales through 2029, even with a $3.5 billion increase to the plan. The company's FFO to debt is expected to remain in the mid-teens range. This financial discipline has also enabled PSEG to declare its 14th consecutive annual dividend increase, extending its record of paying a common dividend for 118 consecutive years.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.