Skip to content
    PEP
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    PEPSICO INC PEP

    Apr 24, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    PepsiCo Q1 FY25 — International Growth and Strategic Investments Offset Frito-Lay Headwinds

    PepsiCo navigated Q1 FY25 with robust international growth and strategic advancements in its North American beverage segment, despite a challenging consumer environment impacting Frito-Lay North America. The company reiterated its full-year organic revenue growth guidance, underpinned by international momentum, while adjusting its earnings outlook to reflect new tariffs and macro uncertainties. Management emphasized ongoing investments in price-pack architecture, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence to drive long-term growth across its diverse portfolio.

    Highlights

    4
    • International business continues to be a strong growth engine, contributing mid-single digit organic revenue growth, with some markets achieving high single digits.

    • PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) is showing improved operating metrics and brand performance, with Pepsi gaining share in CSDs and Gatorade regaining share in sports drinks.

    • Strategic investments in Frito-Lay's price-pack architecture, including dual-size single-serve options (below $2, above $2) and 10-count multipacks, are starting to deliver good returns and improve unit sales.

    • Over 60% of the U.S. food business portfolio already uses natural colors, with major brands like Lay's and Tostitos transitioning by year-end 2025.

    Concerns

    3
    • Full-year earnings outlook was reduced due to new tariffs, heightened macro and consumer uncertainty, and subdued performance at Frito-Lay North America.

    • Frito-Lay North America continues to experience volume weakness, particularly in convenience stores due to reduced traffic, impacting single-serve performance.

    • Macroeconomic slowdown observed in certain international markets, notably China, and consumer sentiment in Mexico is impacted by U.S. trends.

    Guidance & targets

    2
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year earnings outlook
    Reduced outlook
    high materiality
    Medium
    Full-year organic revenue growth
    Low single-digit
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    International Business
    International business started the year at a good pace, with 5% growth. If the third month was included, growth would have been even faster. Expected to continue mid-single digit trends, with some markets achieving high single-digit growth for the balance of the year. China and Mexico are seeing some slowdown, while Europe, India, and Brazil are in a positive place.
    5%
    PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA)
    Feeling good about the business, with improved operating metrics and margin improvement over a multi-year trend. Pepsi is growing faster and gaining share in CSDs, especially with Zero Sugar. Gatorade is regaining share in sports drinks, supported by Gatorlyte and Gatorade Zero. Mountain Dew relaunch planned.
    Pepsi CSD share: GainingGatorade sports drink share: Regaining
    Improving

    Operational metrics

    4
    Q1 Organic Revenue Growth (reported)
    1%
    Q1 FY25

    Reported Q1 organic revenue growth, impacted by international accounting calendar.

    Q1 Organic Revenue Growth (adjusted for international calendar)
    2%
    Q1 FY25

    Organic revenue growth if the international quarter included the third month.

    GLP-1 consumer participation
    7%-8%
    Current

    Estimated current participation of consumers in GLP-1 medications.

    U.S. Food Business Natural Colors Adoption
    60%+
    Current

    Percentage of U.S. food business portfolio that does not use artificial colors.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Category brand shareGaining share
    EPS organic EPS growthReduced outlook
    Gross operating marginImproving
    Organic revenue growthLow single-digit%
    Geographic regional mixMid-single digit%
    Unit case volume growth
    Energy functional category health
    Pack architecture pricing actionsMeaningful improvement in units
    Bottler franchise system economics

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Mountain Dewlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    PoppiAcquisition of the Poppi brand to integrate into the beverage business.

    Acquisition of Poppi, pending regulatory approval. Management plans to integrate it into the business once approved.

    CELSIUSPartnership in the energy drink space. Discussions ongoing regarding CELSIUS's acquisition of Alani Nu.

    Ongoing partnership in energy drinks. Discussions are underway with CELSIUS regarding their acquisition of Alani Nu and potential participation in its distribution network.

    StarbucksPartnership in the coffee space.

    Ongoing partnership with Starbucks for coffee products.

    UnileverPartnership for the tea category.

    Ongoing partnership with Unilever for the development of the tea category.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    New TariffsFY25

    Contributed to reduced full-year earnings outlook

    Mitigation: Factored into guidance; mitigation plans are being worked on, some quicker to execute than others.

    Heightened Macro and Consumer UncertaintyFY25

    Consumer confidence index has 'nose dived'; contributed to reduced full-year earnings outlook

    Mitigation: Adjusting guidance; focusing on value offerings and intelligent revenue management.

    Frito-Lay North America Subdued PerformanceFY25

    Contributed to reduced full-year earnings outlook; volume weakness observed

    Mitigation: Executing a multi-pronged playbook: granular investments, portfolio transformation, operational excellence, and cost-cutting initiatives. Expects turnaround to take 'a little while'.

    International Market SlowdownBalance of FY25

    Slowdown observed in China; Mexico impacted by U.S. consumer sentiment

    Mitigation: Continued investment in international business, leveraging portfolio of markets where majority are in a positive place.

    Reduced Traffic in Convenience StoresOngoing

    Impacting single-serve performance for Frito-Lay and beverages

    Mitigation: Working with partners on meal deals and specific offers to drive traffic and increase incidents in the channel.

    New Legislation on Ingredients/ColorsNext couple of years

    Potential for increased consumer demand for natural ingredients

    Mitigation: Accelerating transition to natural colors; 60%+ of U.S. food business already converted; Lay's and Tostitos by year-end 2025. Aiming for pragmatic, orchestrated industry transition.

    SNAP RestrictionsUncertain, pending legislation implementation

    Potential exposure for some categories

    Mitigation: Anticipates very limited impact on the business; monitoring how eventual legislation gets implemented.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Frito-Lay North America turnaround progress

    Next quarter
    CurrentSubdued performance, volume weakness
    TargetImproved volume trends and financial performance

    Why it matters

    FLNA's performance is a key driver of the company's overall earnings outlook and a significant segment.

    And then third, and this is also related to the consumer picture, is Frito's subdued performance, and we've got clear plans to continue to turn the business around. But that will take a little while, too.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How are Frito-Lay's step-up investments in price-pack architecture and away-from-home opportunities paying off, and are any strategy changes or increased investments needed given the pressured consumer environment?

    Ramon Laguarta stated that the playbook, including granular investments, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence, is being executed. Early returns are seen from dual-size single-serve and 10-count multipack strategies, improving units, especially in convenience stores with meal deals. He noted the recent completion of an SAP implementation is expected to improve service levels and execution. The company will continue to invest for long-term growth.

    So we're starting to see the returns on some of the value and new price points investments that we're making. It's still early in the rollout of the strategy. But if you think about our dual-size strategy in single serve, so below $2, above $2, where we have executed that strategy, we're seeing a meaningful improvement in units, especially when we attach the -- kind of the below $2 to meal deals. And that is especially in convenience stores.

    asked by Bonnie Herzog · answered by Ramon Laguarta

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Frito-Lay North America Strategy and Performance

    Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) is executing a multi-pronged playbook focusing on granular, high-return investments, portfolio transformation, and operational excellence. Early returns are observed from the dual-size strategy in single-serve (below $2, above $2) and the 10-count multipack assortment, which are improving unit sales, especially in convenience stores and when paired with meal deals. The business recently completed an SAP implementation, which is expected to improve service levels and execution visibility in the coming months. Management is committed to continued investment to ensure long-term growth and consumer engagement in the category.

    02

    International Business as a Growth Engine

    The international business remains PepsiCo's largest growth engine, with Q1 FY25 showing solid 5% growth, and an even faster pace when including the full March month. Management expects these mid-single digit trends to continue, with some markets achieving high single-digit growth for the balance of the year. While China and Mexico are experiencing some consumer slowdown🌐, Europe, India, and Brazil are performing positively. The company continues to invest in capacity, talent, go-to-market strategies, and portfolio development in these markets.

    03

    PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) Momentum

    PBNA is demonstrating strong progress, driven by improved operating metrics and strategic brand focus. The business has consistently improved its margins over a multi-year trend, with Q1 marking a good step in this direction. Pepsi is gaining share in the carbonated soft drink (CSD) category, fueled by investments in Pepsi Zero Sugar and 'Pepsi and food' activations. Gatorade is also regaining share in the sports drink category, supported by offerings like Gatorlyte and Gatorade Zero, and growth in powders and tablets.

    04

    GLP-1 Impact and Portfolio Adaptation

    PepsiCo is actively adapting its portfolio to address the evolving dietary preferences of GLP-1 consumers. The company notes that GLP-1 users are driving increased consumption in protein, fiber, and hydration categories. PepsiCo is well-positioned in fiber and hydration solutions and is innovating in the protein space, with new products expected late this year or early next year. Additionally, the company observes that GLP-1 consumers continue to include PepsiCo brands in their repertoire, often opting for smaller portions, which aligns with the company's focus on portion control and diverse pack offerings.

    05

    Segment Recast and North America Integration

    PepsiCo has recast its segment results to provide greater focus and efficiency. This includes separating the international FOBO (franchise-owned, bottler-owned) business from company-owned operating units, allowing for more tailored value propositions and infrastructure development. In North America, Quaker has been integrated into the food business, reflecting how the company already manages it. Furthermore, PepsiCo is pursuing a North America integration opportunity to drive efficiency and future growth through common infrastructure for supply chain and go-to-market models in specific channels, leveraging scale for greater value.

    06

    Ingredient Legislation and SNAP Exposure

    PepsiCo is proactively addressing new legislation concerning ingredients and colors, having already transitioned over 60% of its U.S. food business to natural colors. Major brands like Lay's and Tostitos are expected to complete this transition by the end of 2025. The company aims for a pragmatic, industry-wide approach to this transition, ensuring consumer choice. Regarding SNAP, while some categories may face restrictions, PepsiCo anticipates a very limited impact on its business, pending the final implementation of eventual legislation.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.