Skip to content
    PPL
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    PPL Q1 FY25 earnings call PPL

    Apr 30, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    PPL Corporation Q1 FY25 — Strong Start with Data Center Growth and Regulatory Progress

    PPL Corporation reported a strong start to FY25, driven by increased capital investments and higher sales volumes. The company is making significant progress on its "utility of the future" strategy, including advancing new generation projects in Kentucky and securing regulatory approvals for infrastructure investments in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. PPL is also actively engaging with growing data center demand across its service territories, while managing financing needs and advocating for legislative changes to support generation buildout.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q1 FY25 ongoing EPS of $0.60 per share, an 11% increase over prior year.

    • Projected $20 billion in capital investment needs from 2025 to 2028, driving average annual rate base growth of 9.8%.

    • On track to deliver at least $150 million of cumulative O&M savings compared to the 2021 baseline.

    • Pennsylvania advanced stage data center projects increased to nearly 11 GW from 9 GW last quarter.

    • Secured Pennsylvania PUC approval to increase PPL Electric Utilities DISK revenue cap to 7.5% from 5%.

    Concerns

    2
    • Rhode Island segment results decreased by $0.01 per share YoY due to lower transmission revenues and higher operating costs.

    • Corporate and Other segment results decreased by $0.01 per share YoY primarily due to higher interest expense.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Ongoing earnings forecast
    $1.75 to $1.87 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS growth target
    top half of 6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Annual dividend growth
    6% to 8% range
    medium materiality
    High
    FFO-to-debt ratio
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Holding company to total debt ratio
    below 25%
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital investment needs
    $20 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Average annual rate base growth
    9.8%
    high materiality
    High
    Cumulative O&M savings
    at least $150 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Equity issuance
    between $400 million and $500 million
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Kentucky
    Improvement primarily driven by higher sales volumes due to mild weather experienced during Q1 FY24, with $0.01 of favorable variance from colder-than-normal weather in Q1 FY25.
    EPS increase: $0.05 per share YoY
    Pennsylvania Regulated
    Increase primarily driven by higher sales volumes due to mild weather experienced in Q1 FY24, as well as higher transmission revenue from ongoing capital investments.
    EPS increase: $0.03 per share YoY
    Rhode Island
    Decrease primarily driven by lower transmission revenues due to a prior period true-up and higher operating costs, partially offset by higher distribution revenue from capital investments.
    EPS decrease: $0.01 per share YoY
    Corporate and Other
    Decrease primarily due to higher interest expense.
    EPS decrease: $0.01 per share YoY

    Operational metrics

    15
    Ongoing EPS
    $0.6011% increase YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Adjusting for special items.

    GAAP EPS
    $0.56
    Q1 FY25

    Compared to $0.42 per share in Q1 FY24.

    Special items impact
    $0.04
    Q1 FY25

    Primarily due to IT transformation costs, a settlement charge related to energy efficiency programs in Rhode Island, and remaining Rhode Island integration costs.

    O&M savings
    at least $150 millioncompared to 2021 baseline
    cumulative

    On track to deliver.

    Equity issued through ATM
    $170 million
    YTD FY25

    With forward contracts expiring at the end of the year.

    Weather impact on Kentucky EPS
    $0.01favorable variance
    Q1 FY25

    Due to colder-than-normal weather in Q1 FY25 compared to mild weather in Q1 FY24.

    DISK revenue cap
    7.5%up from 5%
    current

    Pennsylvania PUC approval received in February.

    Rhode Island ISR approval total
    nearly $400 million
    April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026

    For infrastructure investments and select operating costs.

    Rhode Island Electric capital investments (ISR)
    $220 million
    April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026

    Part of the nearly $400 million ISR approval.

    Rhode Island Gas capital investments (ISR)
    $145 million
    April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026

    Part of the nearly $400 million ISR approval.

    Rhode Island Operating costs approved (ISR)
    $35 million
    April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026

    For vegetation management and restoration paving tied to gas main replacement projects.

    Mill Creek Unit 1 retirement cost recovery
    $125 million
    over 10 years

    Regulatory approval received in late February for costs associated with retirement through the retired asset recovery rider.

    Mill Creek 2 retirement capacity
    300
    scheduled 2027

    Unit scheduled to retire, but potential for delay being analyzed due to load growth.

    Environmental CapEx
    <$400 million
    plan period

    Total environmental capital expenditures in the plan.

    CCGT cost estimate
    $2,000
    current

    Cost estimate for new natural gas combined cycle units in CPCN filing.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt16% to 18%%
    Retail sales growthhigher
    Regulatory rate base growth9.8%%
    Rto market structure reviewstruggling to incentivize new generation build
    New gas generation builds upgrades2 x 645 MWMW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loasnearly 11 GWGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Pennsylvania interconnection requests>50 GWQ1 FY25

    In queue, demonstrating continued interest in the service territory.

    Kentucky active data center requestsnearly 6 GWQ1 FY25

    Active in queue.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Data center developersEnergy services agreements (ESAs) for large-scale data centers

    ESAs include minimum load commitments for data centers, obligating them to pay minimum revenue based on peak load until socialized upgrade costs are paid off. Also includes letters of credit and termination fees to protect against stranded asset risk. Multiple gigawatts signed in Pennsylvania.

    Capital programs

    9
    Infrastructure Improvementsunderway
    Period spend: $4 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: Strengthen grid reliability and resiliency, make operations more efficient, advance generation replacement strategy in Kentucky.

    On track to complete over $4 billion in infrastructure improvements this year.

    Capital Investment Planunderway$20 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: Results in average annual rate base growth of 9.8%.

    Projected capital investment needs from 2025 to 2028.

    New Natural Gas Combined Cycle Unitspending regulatory approval

    Benefit: 2 new highly efficient 645-megawatt natural gas combined cycle units.

    Part of CPCN request filed with Kentucky Public Service Commission.

    Battery Storage (CPCN)pending regulatory approval

    Benefit: 400 megawatts of battery storage.

    Part of CPCN request filed with Kentucky Public Service Commission.

    Environmental Controls Upgrade (Ghent Unit 2)pending regulatory approval

    Benefit: Upgrades to environmental controls on Ghent Unit 2.

    Part of CPCN request filed with Kentucky Public Service Commission.

    Mercer Solar Facilityunderway

    Benefit: 120-megawatt solar facility.

    Recently began construction in Kentucky.

    Brown Station Battery Storage Systemunderway

    Benefit: 125-megawatt battery storage system.

    Recently began construction in Kentucky.

    Mill Creek Combined Cycle Natural Gas Facilityunderway
    Start: mid-last year

    Benefit: 640-megawatt combined cycle natural gas facility.

    Good progress on construction in Kentucky.

    Rhode Island Electric and Gas Infrastructure, Safety and Reliability Plansapprovednearly $400 million
    Start: April 1, 2025

    Benefit: Strengthen safety, reliability and resiliency of electric and gas distribution networks. Includes $220M electric capital ($88M AMI) and $145M gas capital ($108M gas main replacements).

    Approval received for infrastructure investments and select operating costs.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Stranded asset risk from large data center projects

    Not quantified, but identified as a concern at commissions across the country.

    Mitigation: Energy services agreements (ESAs) are structured with minimum load commitments, letters of credit, and termination fees to protect existing customers from this risk.

    PJM market struggling to incentivize new generation buildCurrent

    Leading to rising electricity prices for consumers and potential energy shortfalls.

    Mitigation: PPL is advocating for legislative changes in Pennsylvania (House Bill 1272) to allow regulated electric utilities to invest in generation resources.

    Proposed trade tariffs

    No significant impact expected on PPL's plan.

    Mitigation: 70% to 80% of capital projects and nearly 90% of O&M are labor; most materials are sourced domestically, shrinking potential impact.

    Higher interest expenseQ1 FY25

    Decreased Corporate and Other segment results by $0.01 per share.

    Air permit for Mill Creek 5 depends on Mill Creek 2 retirementMill Creek 2 scheduled to retire in 2027

    Mill Creek 2 is a 300 MW unit.

    Mitigation: PPL is analyzing and discussing with stakeholders the potential to delay Mill Creek 2 retirement, possibly until Mill Creek 6 comes online in 2031, to meet demand.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Kentucky CPCN Decision

    By November 2025
    CurrentHearing date set for August 4, 2025.
    TargetDecision on CPCN request.

    Why it matters

    Approval of new generation and battery storage is crucial for meeting growing demand and replacing retiring assets in Kentucky.

    The KPSC has set a hearing date of August 4, and we anticipate a decision on our request by November.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What are the advantages of IOUs versus IPPs in bringing generation to market, especially given turbine queue issues? Is it about building or incentivizing others to build?

    PPL believes the regulated utility model offers stability and predictability for financing 30-40 year assets, unlike the competitive market's 1-year price signal. PPL is capable and ready to build generation in Pennsylvania if allowed, similar to its activities in Kentucky. Existing PPA options under default service are too limited to solve the broader issue.

    the limitation with the market is the capacity, the market is really a 1-year price signal 3 years forward. And so right, the question becomes, is that enough to incentivize the competitive market to build new generation 30-, 40-year assets? And can you finance it?

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Vincent Sorgi

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Kentucky Generation Strategy

    PPL filed a CPCN request with the Kentucky Public Service Commission to address near-term generation needs, including the construction of two new 645-megawatt natural gas combined cycle units with 2030 and 2031 in-service dates, the addition of 400 megawatts of battery storage by 2028, and upgrades to environmental controls on Ghent Unit 2. Construction is also advancing on previously approved projects, including the 120-megawatt Mercer solar facility and a 125-megawatt battery storage system at Brown station, both expected for completion in 2027, and a 640-megawatt combined cycle natural gas facility at Mill Creek, expected by early 2028.

    02

    Pennsylvania Regulatory Progress

    PPL Electric Utilities secured Pennsylvania PUC approval to increase its DISK revenue cap to 7.5%, up from the prior cap of 5%. This new cap will be in effect through 2027 or until a new distribution base rate case takes effect. PPL is also actively advocating for legislative changes in Pennsylvania, specifically supporting House Bill 1272, which would allow regulated electric utilities to invest in generation resources to address rising electricity prices and potential energy shortfalls, complementing the competitive PJM market.

    03

    Rhode Island Infrastructure Investment

    In Rhode Island, PPL received approval for nearly $400 million in infrastructure investments and select operating costs in connection with its latest electric and gas infrastructure, safety, and reliability plans for April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. This includes approximately $220 million in capital investments for electric (with $88 million for advanced metering infrastructure) and $145 million for gas capital (with $108 million for gas main replacements). Additionally, $35 million in operating costs for vegetation management and restoration paving were authorized.

    04

    Data Center Growth & Protection

    PPL continues to see significant interest from data center developers, with nearly 11 gigawatts of projects in advanced planning stages in Pennsylvania and over 50 gigawatts of other interconnection requests in the queue. In Kentucky, PPL supports a 400-megawatt data center customer and manages nearly 6 gigawatts of active requests. Energy services agreements (ESAs) for these large loads are structured with minimum load commitments, letters of credit, and termination fees to protect existing customers from stranded asset risk, ensuring data centers share in transmission system costs.

    05

    Kentucky Rate Case & Coal EO

    PPL notified the Kentucky Public Service Commission of its intent to file a base rate case on or after May 30, seeking new rates effective January 1, 2026, to support continued infrastructure investments and projected load growth. The company is also analyzing the impact of the recent coal executive order on its generation planning, particularly the scheduled 2027 retirement of Mill Creek 2 (300 MW), considering a potential delay to meet increasing demand from economic development and data centers.

    06

    Tariff Impact & Supply Chain Management

    PPL does not expect a significant impact from recently proposed trade tariffs on its plan. The company highlights that 70% to 80% of its capital projects and nearly 90% of its O&M costs are labor-related, and most materials are sourced domestically. This domestic sourcing and labor-intensive cost structure significantly reduces the potential exposure to tariff impact🌐s, demonstrating effective supply chain management.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.