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    PPL
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    PPL Q2 FY25 earnings call PPL

    Jul 31, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    PPL Q2 FY25 — Data Center Demand Drives New Generation Strategy and Regulatory Activity

    PPL reported Q2 FY25 ongoing EPS of $0.32, a decrease from the prior year, but reaffirmed its full-year forecast, expecting stronger growth in H2. The company is actively addressing surging data center demand, particularly in Pennsylvania, through a new joint venture with Blackstone Infrastructure to build new generation and advocating for supportive legislation. Significant regulatory activity is underway across its service territories to support ongoing capital investments and grid modernization.

    Highlights

    5
    • Reaffirmed at least midpoint of 2025 ongoing EPS forecast of $1.81 per share.

    • Projected $20 billion in infrastructure improvements from 2025-2028, driving 9.8% average annual rate base growth.

    • Maintained excellent credit profile with FFO to debt ratio of 16%-18% and holding company to total debt ratio below 25%.

    • Secured constructive stipulation agreement for Kentucky CPCN, supporting two 645 MW natural gas units and Mill Creek 2 life extension.

    • Announced joint venture with Blackstone Infrastructure to build new generation for data centers, with 14.5 GW of data center projects in advanced stages in PA.

    Concerns

    2
    • Q2 FY25 ongoing EPS decreased by $0.06 per share year-over-year to $0.32 per share due to timing of expenses and milder weather.

    • Industrial sales showed contraction in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, driven by specific customer situations and weather.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Ongoing EPS
    at least the midpoint of $1.81 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS growth
    6% to 8% annual earnings per share
    high materiality
    High
    Annual dividend growth
    6% to 8% annual dividend growth
    high materiality
    High
    Infrastructure improvements
    $20 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Average annual rate base growth
    9.8%
    high materiality
    High
    FFO to debt ratio
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Holding company to total debt ratio
    below 25%
    medium materiality
    High
    Cumulative annual O&M savings
    $150 million
    medium materiality
    High
    PA transmission capital investment for data centers
    $750 million to $1.25 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    PA new generation need
    7.5 gigawatts
    high materiality
    High
    PA new generation investment need
    $17 billion to $19 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Kentucky
    Ongoing segment results were flat compared to Q2 2024. Lower sales volumes, primarily due to favorable weather experienced during the second quarter of last year, were offset by several insignificant factors.
    Ongoing segment results: flat YoYSales volumes: lower YoY
    Pennsylvania Regulated
    Ongoing segment results decreased by $0.02 per share compared to Q2 2024. The decrease was primarily driven by higher operating costs and the timing of a transmission revenue true-up, partially offset by returns from ongoing capital investments.
    Ongoing segment results: decreased by $0.02 per share YoY
    -$0.02 per share
    Rhode Island
    Ongoing segment results decreased by $0.03 per share compared to Q2 2024. Higher distribution revenues from capital investments were more than offset by the timing of certain operating costs and a number of items that were not individually significant.
    Ongoing segment results: decreased by $0.03 per share YoY
    -$0.03 per share

    Operational metrics

    18
    Ongoing EPS
    $0.32down $0.06 YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Adjusted for special items.

    GAAP EPS
    $0.25compared to $0.26 per share in Q2 FY24
    Q2 FY25

    Reported GAAP earnings.

    Special items impact on EPS
    -$0.07
    Q2 FY25

    Impact of special items on GAAP EPS to arrive at ongoing EPS.

    O&M savings
    $150 millioncumulative annual vs. 2021 baseline
    2025

    Expected cumulative annual O&M savings compared to 2021 baseline.

    Equity issued via ATM
    $350 millionadditional $180 million this period
    YTD 2025

    Total amount issued year-to-date through the ATM program.

    ATM program target
    $400 million to $500 million
    FY25

    Indicated target for equity issuance via ATM for the full year.

    Kentucky economic development investments
    $36 billion
    2020-2024

    Total new investments announced in Kentucky.

    Kentucky economic development load potential
    8.5 GW
    Estimated

    Latest forecast for economic development load potential in Kentucky service territories.

    Kentucky demand growth (refreshed)
    2.5 GW700 MW additional load vs. original forecast
    Estimated

    Refreshed projections compared to 1.8 GW estimated in the original CPCN forecast.

    PowerHouse Data Center (Kentucky)
    525 MWupsized from 400 MW
    Current

    Previously announced data center project that has been upsized.

    PA grid investment
    $13 billion
    Since 2013

    Investment in the Pennsylvania grid by PPL Electric Utilities.

    Kentucky new generation cost estimate
    $2200
    Current

    Cost estimate for new natural gas combined cycle units currently being built in Kentucky.

    PJM queue new generation (Pennsylvania)
    10 GW
    Current

    Total new generation in the PJM queue for Pennsylvania.

    Rhode Island hold harmless settlement
    $155 million
    Future

    Settlement to credit customers for the hold harmless commitment related to the acquisition of Rhode Island Energy.

    Kentucky base rate increase request
    $391 million
    Annual

    Request filed with the KPSC to support investments.

    Kentucky inflation
    19.7%
    2021-2024

    Cumulative inflation during the period.

    Kentucky requested rate increase percentage
    10.7%
    Annual

    Overall percentage increase sought by LG&E and KU.

    PJM capacity auction customer bill impact
    $20
    Future

    Estimated increase in customer bills from the last two capacity auctions, with no new generation to show for it.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt16% to 18%%
    Retail sales growthLower
    Regulatory rate base growth9.8%%
    Rto market structure reviewPJM capacity market
    New gas generation builds upgradestwo 645 MWMW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas14.5 GWGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    4
    Data center projects in advanced stages14.5 GWQ2 FY25

    up from 11 GW on last call

    in Pennsylvania Electric Utilities service territory

    Publicly announced data center projects5 GWQ2 FY25

    in Pennsylvania Electric Utilities service territory

    Economic development load potential8.5 GWQ2 FY25

    in Kentucky service territories, includes 5.7 GW data center load and 2.8 GW manufacturing/other

    PowerHouse Data Center525 MWQ2 FY25

    upsized from 400 MW

    in Kentucky service territory

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Blackstone InfrastructureTo build new generation in Pennsylvania to directly serve data centers.open-ended investment horizon

    The JV plans to enter into long-term energy services agreements (ESAs) with hyperscalers, aiming for regulated-like risk profiles. Construction of new generation will require successful execution of ESAs. The JV is actively engaged with hyperscalers, landowners, natural gas pipeline companies, and turbine manufacturers, and has secured multiple land parcels.

    Capital programs

    3
    Infrastructure improvementsunderway$20 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: average annual rate base growth of 9.8%

    Projected infrastructure improvements from 2025 to 2028, not including any capital expenditures for the new JV with Blackstone.

    Kentucky Generation CPCN (Brown 12 & Mill Creek 6)pending KPSC approval of stipulation$3 billion

    Benefit: two 645 MW natural gas combined cycle units

    Stipulation agreement filed with KPSC supports approval of two 645 MW NGCC units and an SCR for Ghent unit. Adds $3 billion worth of projects if approved.

    Pennsylvania Grid Investmentunderway$7 billion

    Benefit: strengthen grid, connect large load customers

    Current capital plan includes $7 billion through 2028 for PPL Electric Utilities grid, following $13 billion invested since 2013.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Timing of operating costs and true-upsQ2 FY25

    $0.03 per share impact in Q2 FY25

    Mitigation: Business plan assumes stronger growth in H2 from higher returns on capital investments and lower O&M.

    Milder weather impactQ2 FY25

    $0.01 per share impact in Q2 FY25

    Mitigation: Business plan assumes stronger growth in H2.

    Higher interest expenseQ2 FY25

    $0.01 per share impact in Q2 FY25

    Mitigation: Business plan assumes stronger growth in H2.

    PJM capacity market's inability to incentivize new generationOngoing

    Auctions clearing at levels increasing customer bills by ~$20/month with no new generation.

    Mitigation: PPL is pursuing JV with Blackstone and supporting legislative solutions (House Bill 1272, Senate Bill 897) to enable new generation buildout.

    Lag in generation buildout vs. demandNear-term to medium-term (5-7 years)

    Already a couple of years late in getting new generation started, with 5 years needed to build a CCGT plant.

    Mitigation: JV with Blackstone, legislative support, focus on long-term ESAs with hyperscalers.

    Solar developers' ability to complete projectsOngoing

    Real issues seen with solar developers getting projects completed in PJM queue.

    Mitigation: Focus on dispatchable generation (natural gas) through JV and legislative efforts.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Kentucky CPCN decision

    By November 1, 2025
    CurrentStipulation agreement filed, hearing scheduled for Aug 4.
    TargetFinal decision by KPSC.

    Why it matters

    Approval of the stipulation impacts new generation buildout (two 645 MW NGCC units) and Mill Creek 2 life extension, crucial for meeting Kentucky's load growth.

    We continue to anticipate a final decision by November 1 of this year.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How will the $17B-$19B CapEx for PA data center generation be met, and what is PPL's preference for JV vs. regulated generation, or market share?

    The generation need will likely be met by a combination of the JV, existing IPPs, and potentially PPL Electric Utilities if legislation allows. PPL Electric Utilities would focus on specific resource allocation needs, while the JV could address broader state demand. PPL aims to keep the JV's activity in proper relative positioning to avoid significantly changing the company's overall risk profile.

    I think all 3 market participants will likely take a piece of that.

    asked by Jeremy Tonet · answered by Vincent Sorgi

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q2 Financial Performance and Outlook

    PPL reported Q2 FY25 GAAP earnings of $0.25 per share and ongoing earnings of $0.32 per share, marking a $0.06 per share decrease compared to Q2 FY24. This decline was primarily attributed to the timing of📎 certain operating costs, favorable weather in the prior year, and higher interest expense. Despite these factors, management reaffirmed its full-year 2025 ongoing EPS forecast at least at the midpoint of $1.81 per share, anticipating stronger growth in the second half of the year driven by higher returns on capital investments and lower O&M. The company expects to deliver $150 million in cumulative annual O&M savings in 2025 compared to its 2021 baseline.

    02

    Kentucky Regulatory Updates

    A constructive stipulation agreement was filed with the KPSC related to the CPCN proceeding for new generation in Kentucky. This agreement supports the approval of two 645-megawatt natural gas combined cycle units (Brown 12 and Mill Creek 6) and an SCR for the Ghent unit. It also includes mechanisms to reduce investment lag, such as AFUDC treatment and cost recovery via existing environmental cost recovery mechanisms. The stipulation supports extending the life of the Mill Creek 2 coal unit from 2027 to 2031 and a new mechanism to recover associated O&M and capital costs. LG&E and KU also filed a request with the KPSC for a combined $391 million increase in annual electric and gas revenues, with a decision expected by year-end and new rates effective January 1, 2026.

    03

    Rhode Island and Pennsylvania Rate Cases

    In Rhode Island, PPL reached a settlement with the advocacy section of the Division of Public Utilities and Carriers regarding a hold harmless commitment from the acquisition of Rhode Island Energy. The settlement entails a $155 million bill credit to customers, to be distributed in January, February, and March of 2026 and 2027, improving affordability during winter months. In Pennsylvania, PPL Electric Utilities expects to file its first base rate case in a decade by the end of 2025. This filing will support continued efforts to strengthen the grid against storms and incorporate advanced technology for improved efficiency and customer experience.

    04

    Pennsylvania Data Center Strategy and JV

    PPL has made serving data centers a strategic priority, with 14.5 gigawatts of data center projects in advanced stages of development in Pennsylvania, including 5 gigawatts publicly announced. This demand has led to an increased projection for transmission capital investment, now ranging from $750 million to $1.25 billion, with only $400 million currently in the capital plan. To meet this unprecedented🌐 growth, PPL announced a new joint venture with Blackstone Infrastructure to build new generation. This JV aims to address an estimated 7.5 gigawatts of new generation need over the next 5 to 7 years in PPL Electric Utilities' service territory, representing a $17 billion to $19 billion investment.

    05

    Blackstone JV Structure and Rationale

    The joint venture, with PPL owning 51% and Blackstone Infrastructure 49%, aims to build new generation under long-term energy services agreements (ESAs) with hyperscalers, ensuring regulated-like risk profiles and avoiding merchant energy price volatility. Blackstone Infrastructure, with its open-ended investment horizon and expertise in data centers and generation, is seen as an ideal partner. PPL contributes its strong presence in Pennsylvania, relationships with state officials, PJM market insights, and proven experience in developing and operating generation assets, including managing over $3.5 billion in construction projects. The JV is positioned to build generation now, without cannibalizing existing assets.

    06

    Kentucky Economic Development and Load Growth

    Kentucky continues to experience robust economic growth, with approximately $36 billion in new investments announced from 2020 to 2024, nearly half of which are within LG&E and KU service territories. The economic development pipeline remains strong, fueled by access to reliable and affordable electricity. PPL's latest forecast for Kentucky estimates 8.5 gigawatts of economic development load potential, comprising 5.7 gigawatts of data center load and 2.8 gigawatts of manufacturing and other non-data center load. The previously announced PowerHouse Data Center has been upsized from 400 megawatts to 525 megawatts, indicating continued materialization of demand growth.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.