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    PPL
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    PPL Corp PPL

    Nov 5, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    PPL Corporation Q3 FY25 — Strong Performance and Data Center Growth Momentum

    PPL delivered strong third-quarter results, driven by operational discipline and strategic execution, leading to a narrowed and reaffirmed full-year earnings forecast. The company continues to advance its utility of the future strategy, marked by significant infrastructure investments and regulatory progress in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. Momentum in data center demand across both key service territories is a major theme, with management emphasizing robust protections for existing customers and active engagement in resource adequacy solutions.

    Highlights

    5
    • Reported Q3 FY25 ongoing earnings of $0.48 per share, a $0.06 per share increase compared to Q3 FY24.

    • Narrowed 2025 ongoing earnings forecast range to $1.78 to $1.84 per share, maintaining the midpoint of $1.81 per share.

    • Advanced utility of the future strategy, on track to complete approximately $4.3 billion in infrastructure improvements this year.

    • Achieved significant regulatory milestones in Kentucky, including a proposed rate case settlement for $235 million annual revenue increase and KPSC approval for 2 new 645 MW natural gas combined cycle units.

    • Pennsylvania data center projects in advanced stages (signed ESA/LOA) jumped over 40% from 14.4 GW to 20.5 GW.

    Concerns

    1
    • KPSC did not approve two proposed cost recovery mechanisms for Mill Creek 6 and Mill Creek 2 stay-open costs in the CPCN order, though encouraged re-filing in separate proceedings.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Ongoing Earnings Per Share
    $1.78 to $1.84 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Infrastructure Investments
    $20 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Average Annual Rate Base Growth
    9.8%
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS and Dividend Growth
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    FFO to Debt Ratio
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Holding Company to Total Debt Ratio
    below 25%
    medium materiality
    High
    Kentucky New Rates Effective Date
    no earlier than January 1, 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Kentucky Rate Case Decision
    by the end of the year
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Pennsylvania Rate Case Decision
    in the second quarter of next year
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Pennsylvania New Rates Effective Date
    July 1, 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Rhode Island Energy Distribution Base Rate Request Filing
    before the end of this year
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Kentucky Regulated
    Increase driven by higher sales volumes (favorable weather), lower operating costs, and higher earnings from additional capital investments, partially offset by higher interest expense.
    EPS increase: $0.02 per share
    Pennsylvania Regulated
    Increase primarily driven by higher transmission revenue from additional capital investments and higher distribution rider recovery, partially offset by higher interest expense.
    EPS increase: $0.02 per share
    Rhode Island
    Increase primarily driven by lower operating costs.
    EPS increase: $0.01 per share

    Operational metrics

    14
    GAAP Earnings Per Share
    $0.43vs $0.29 in Q3 FY24
    Q3 FY25

    Reported GAAP earnings per share.

    Ongoing Earnings Per Share
    $0.48vs $0.42 in Q3 FY24
    Q3 FY25

    Adjusted for special items, primarily IT transformation costs and Rhode Island Energy integration costs.

    Special Items Impact
    $0.05
    Q3 FY25

    Impact on GAAP earnings per share.

    Equity Financing Executed under Forward Agreements
    $1.4 billion
    YTD Q3 FY25

    Executed via ATM to de-risk equity financing needs for growth.

    Infrastructure Improvements Completion
    $4.3 billion
    FY25

    On track to complete critical investments this year.

    Annual O&M Savings Target
    $150 millionvs 2021 baseline
    Annual

    On pace to achieve through innovation and technology.

    O&M Cost Reduction Rate
    2.5%
    Annual average

    Achieved through disciplined cost management and smart investments.

    PPL Electric O&M Expense Increase
    7.4%vs 32% inflation
    Since 2015

    Nominal increase compared to inflation over the same period, highlighting cost efficiency.

    Pennsylvania Base Rate Request Net Revenue Increase
    $300 million8.6% increase
    Annual

    Requested increase to support grid investments, with $50M already reflected in customer bills through riders.

    Pennsylvania Base Rate Request ROE
    11.3%
    Requested

    Requested Return on Equity in the base rate case application.

    Kentucky Economic Development Pipeline
    10 GW
    Current

    Total economic development pipeline, fueled by reliable electricity and new generation approvals.

    Kentucky Probability Weighted Demand Growth Projections
    2.8 GW300 MW increase from Q2 estimate
    Refreshed

    Refreshed projections, indicating potential need for additional generation resources beyond current CPCN approvals.

    Rhode Island Customer Credits
    $155 million
    Jan-Mar 2026 & 2027

    Agreement to credit customers, net present value neutral for PPL, awaiting final implementation approval.

    O&M Savings Reinvestment Ratio
    $8
    Per dollar of O&M savings

    Every dollar of O&M savings can be reinvested as capital without impacting customer bills.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt16% to 18%%
    Retail sales growthHigher sales volumes
    Regulatory rate base growth9.8%%
    Rto market structure reviewActive engagement
    New gas generation builds upgrades2 new 645 MWMW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas20.5 GWGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Pennsylvania Data Center Projects in Advanced Stages (Signed ESA/LOA)20.5 GWQ3 FY25

    up 40% from 14.4 GW

    Includes 11 GW publicly announced and 5 GW already under construction. Counterparties have significant financial commitments (long lead time materials, engineering, credit support, 80% minimum load requirement for ESAs).

    Pennsylvania Data Center Demand in Queue70 GWQ3 FY25

    Additional demand in the queue beyond the 20.5 GW in advanced stages.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Blackstone InfrastructureJV to build new generation to directly support data center demand under long-term energy supply agreements

    The JV is actively engaged with hyperscalers, data center developers, landowners, and pipeline companies. No specific announcement on projects yet, but significant activity is ongoing.

    Majority of intervenors in Kentucky base rate caseProposed settlement agreement for Kentucky base rate case proceedingsapproximately $235 millionBase rate stay-out provision through August 1, 2028

    Includes a GCR clause for new generation assets and a sharing mechanism adjustment clause. Also supports a new tariff for large demand customers like data centers. Subject to commission approval.

    Rhode Island Division of Public Utilities and CarriersAgreement to credit customers for deferred tax hold-harmless commitmentnearly $155 millionJanuary, February, and March of 2026 and 2027

    Average electricity customer to receive $20-$25/month, average gas customer $40-$45/month. Tied to the acquisition of Rhode Island Energy.

    Capital programs

    5
    Multi-year Infrastructure Investment Planunderway$20 billion
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: Driving 9.8% average annual rate base growth

    Projected infrastructure investments from 2025 through 2028.

    Current Year Infrastructure Improvementson track
    Period spend: $4.3 billion
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: Support reliable, resilient, affordable and cleaner energy networks

    On track to complete approximately $4.3 billion in infrastructure improvements this year.

    Pennsylvania Data Center Related Capital Expendituresunderwayat least $1 billion

    Benefit: Support 20.5 GW of data center demand

    Updated CapEx estimates related to the 20.5 GW of data center projects, an incremental $600 million to the current capital plan.

    Kentucky New Generation Assets (GCR eligible)approved

    Benefit: Mill Creek Unit 5 NGCC, Marion and Mercer County solar, E.W. Brown Energy Storage, E.W. Brown Unit 12 NGCC

    Investments associated with new generation and energy storage assets approved by the commission but not yet in service, eligible for Generation Cost Recovery (GCR) clause.

    Kentucky New Generation Units (CPCN approved)approved

    Benefit: 2 new 645 MW natural gas combined cycle units (Mill Creek 12 and Mill Creek 6), SCR at Ghent Unit 2

    KPSC approval for construction of new units and SCR to meet growing energy needs and maintain reliability.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    KPSC non-approval of cost recovery mechanisms for Mill Creek 2 and 6Near-term for Mill Creek 2, long-term for Mill Creek 6

    Mill Creek 2: $30 million incremental O&M and $40 million incremental CapEx between now and 2030

    Mitigation: Management is addressing Mill Creek 2 costs in current rate case hearings and will address Mill Creek 6 in a future proceeding, as the commission encouraged re-filing.

    State budget impasse and REGI impacting Pennsylvania energy policy discussionsNear-term (until end of year)

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Management expects these issues to be resolved, allowing for movement on proposed legislation to spur new generation.

    Potential for overbuilding generation due to load forecast uncertaintyNear-term

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Management states the near-term risk of overbuilding generation does not exist, emphasizing the need to build new generation now to meet rapid demand growth. PJM also discounts utility load forecasts by up to 30%.

    Unhealthy revenue concentration from data centersLong-term

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Management believes proper protections are in place through tariff structures and ESAs (e.g., 80% minimum load requirement, credit support) to ensure data centers pay their fair share and prevent costs from being shifted to existing customers. They also anticipate continued growth in data center power needs.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Kentucky Rate Case Decision

    by the end of the year
    CurrentHearings underway
    TargetDecision from KPSC

    Why it matters

    This decision will finalize the revenue increase, authorized ROE, and rate mechanisms for Kentucky, impacting future earnings and investment recovery.

    Official hearings began earlier this week, and we anticipate a decision from the KPSC by the end of the year.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Asked about the KPSC's rejection of cost recovery mechanisms for Mill Creek 2 and 6, what information was missing, and any near-term EPS impact.

    Management stated no near-term EPS concern for Mill Creek 6 as AFUDC was approved and the mechanism would only apply at in-service in 2031. For Mill Creek 2, they are addressing recovery of stay-open costs in the current rate case hearings, as these costs are being incurred sooner. They believe the KPSC felt the CPCN was not the proper arena for rate mechanisms and encouraged re-filing.

    I'm not sure that a whole lot was missing necessarily, although I think it's safe to assume that the commission felt it was -- that the CPCN proceeding was not the proper arena to deal with rate mechanisms, and they would rather deal with that in a rate proceeding.

    asked by Shar Pourreza · answered by Vincent Sorgi

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Kentucky Regulatory Progress and Generation Strategy

    PPL's Kentucky utilities (LG&E and KU) reached a proposed settlement in their base rate case, seeking a $235 million annual revenue increase and a 9.9% authorized ROE, with new rates expected by January 1, 2026. The settlement includes new rate mechanisms like a Generation Cost Recovery (GCR) clause for new generation assets and a sharing mechanism adjustment clause to manage regulatory lag. Additionally, KPSC approved the construction of two new 645 MW natural gas combined cycle units (Mill Creek 12 and Mill Creek 6) and an SCR at Ghent Unit 2, supporting the long-term generation investment strategy and economic development.

    02

    Pennsylvania Data Center Momentum and Capital Upside

    The number of data center projects in advanced planning stages (signed ESA or LOA) in PPL Electric Utilities' service territory has surged over 40% to 20.5 GW, with 11 GW publicly announced and 5 GW already under construction. This growth is driving an incremental CapEx estimate of at least $600 million beyond the current capital plan, bringing the total CapEx related to these projects to over $1 billion. Management is actively engaged with PJM to refine load forecasting processes and supports state solutions for new generation to meet this unprecedented🌐 demand.

    03

    Rhode Island Customer Affordability Initiatives

    In Rhode Island, PPL has agreed to credit customers a total of nearly $155 million across January, February, and March of 2026 and 2027, providing significant near-term bill support. This arrangement, net present value neutral for PPL, was approved by the Rhode Island Division of Public Utilities and Carriers to satisfy a deferred tax hold-harmless commitment from the acquisition of Rhode Island Energy. The settlement is currently awaiting final implementation approval from the Rhode Island Public Utility Commission.

    04

    O&M Savings and Cost Management

    PPL continues to prioritize affordability through disciplined cost management and innovation, remaining on track to achieve annual O&M savings of at least $150 million compared to its 2021 baseline. The company targets an average annual O&M cost reduction of 2.5% from 2021 through 2026, driven by smart grid technologies, optimized generation outages, centralized shared services, and the integration of artificial intelligence across operations. These savings create capacity for critical capital investments without impacting customer bills.

    05

    Equity Financing and Credit Profile

    To de-risk its substantial growth plan, PPL executed forward contracts to sell approximately $1 billion of equity in Q3 FY25 via an ATM program, minimizing fees and ensuring efficient execution. This brings the total equity executed under forward agreements to $1.4 billion of the $2.5 billion forecasted needs through 2028. The company expects to maintain a strong credit profile with an FFO to debt ratio of 16-18% and a holding company to total debt ratio below 25%.

    06

    Blackstone Joint Venture and Resource Adequacy

    PPL's joint venture with Blackstone Infrastructure is actively pursuing opportunities to build new generation to directly support data center demand under long-term energy supply agreements. While no specific announcements were made, significant activity is underway with hyperscalers, developers, and landowners. The JV aims to address resource adequacy concerns in PJM and stabilize wholesale capacity prices, leveraging PPL's territory's access to Marcellus Shale gas.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.