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    PPL
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    PPL Q4 FY25 earnings call PPL

    Feb 20, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    PPL Corporation Q4 FY25 — Strong Operational Performance and Extended Growth Outlook

    PPL Corporation delivered strong operational and financial results in Q4 FY25, meeting its earnings targets and extending its EPS growth outlook through 2029. The company is focused on significant capital investments to modernize its grid and meet growing demand, particularly from data centers, while prioritizing customer affordability and maintaining a strong credit profile. Strategic partnerships and legislative efforts are underway to address generation supply needs in PJM.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved ongoing earnings of $1.81 per share, meeting the midpoint of their forecast and representing 7.1% growth from the prior year.

    • Executed $4.4 billion in planned capital investments focused on grid hardening, modernization, and new generation in Kentucky.

    • Outperformed O&M savings target by $20 million, achieving $170 million in run rate savings from the 2021 baseline, a year ahead of schedule.

    • Increased the capital investment plan to $23 billion from 2026-2029, up from $20 billion, supporting an estimated rate base CAGR of 10.3%.

    • Secured regulatory approval for an aggregate $233 million annual revenue increase in Kentucky, including a pilot generation recovery mechanism and an allowed ROE of 9.775%.

    Concerns

    3
    • Kentucky Public Service Commission did not approve the proposed earnings sharing mechanism, leading to a reassessment of the next rate case timing.

    • Rhode Island segment decreased by $0.06 per share compared to forecast due to true-ups and higher operating costs, though these are not expected to reoccur.

    • PJM energy supply costs have increased by roughly 200% since December 2020, driving a $50 increase in average monthly residential bills in Pennsylvania.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Ongoing earnings
    $1.90 to $1.98 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Annual EPS growth target
    6% to 8% annual EPS growth
    high materiality
    High
    Capital investment needs
    $23 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Rate base CAGR
    about 10.3%
    high materiality
    High
    FFO to debt ratio
    16% to 18%
    medium materiality
    High
    Total equity needs
    $3 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Annual dividend growth rate
    4% to 6%
    high materiality
    High
    O&M growth
    approximately 1% annually
    medium materiality
    High
    Dividend payout ratio
    50% to 60%
    medium materiality
    High
    Total return proposition
    10% to 12%
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Kentucky
    FY25 results driven by higher sales volumes (largely due to weather), higher earnings from additional CapEx, and lower O&M, partially offset by higher interest expense. Q4 2025 results driven by higher sales volumes due to favorable weather and higher earnings from additional capital investments, partially offset by higher interest expense.
    EPS increase FY25 vs FY24: $0.09 per shareEPS increase Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024: $0.02 per share
    Pennsylvania Regulated
    FY25 results led by higher transmission revenue and distribution rider recovery, along with higher sales volumes and lower operating costs, partially offset by higher depreciation and interest expense. Q4 2025 results primarily driven by higher transmission revenues, higher distribution rider recovery, and lower operating costs, partially offset by higher interest expense and other factors.
    EPS increase FY25 vs FY24: $0.04 per shareEPS increase Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024: $0.01 per share
    Rhode Island
    FY25 results due to higher operating costs and other factors, partially offset by higher distribution revenue. FY25 segment decreased by $0.06 per share compared to forecast due to several true-ups and higher operating costs related to system costs, nonrecoverable storm costs, and several miscellaneous costs, which are not expected to reoccur.
    EPS decrease FY25 vs FY24: $0.02 per shareEPS increase Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024: $0.01 per share
    Corporate and Other
    FY25 results driven by lower income taxes and other factors, partially offset by higher interest expense. Q4 2025 results due to lower interest expense and lower income taxes.
    EPS improvement FY25 vs FY24: $0.01 per shareEPS increase Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024: $0.03 per share

    Operational metrics

    26
    Customer count
    3.5 million
    2025

    Delivering safe and reliable electricity and natural gas service to more than 3.5 million customers.

    O&M run rate savings
    $170 millionOutperformed target by $20 million
    End of 2025

    Achieved approximately $170 million in run rate savings from our 2021 baseline, about a year ahead of our $175 million target for the end of 2026.

    O&M savings benefiting Kentucky customers
    $100 million
    Since 2022

    About $100 million of those savings benefited our Kentucky customers alone and directly reduced the increases needed in our most recent Kentucky rate cases.

    O&M reduction
    nearly 3%
    Annually

    Since that time, we have reduced O&M by nearly 3% annually.

    O&M savings target
    $175 million
    End of 2026

    Achieved approximately $170 million in run rate savings from our 2021 baseline, about a year ahead of our $175 million target for the end of 2026.

    Capital investment funding from cash flow
    roughly half
    2026 to 2029

    We expect roughly half of the plan to be funded through cash flow from operations, which is net of common dividends.

    Capital investment funding from debt
    approximately 40%
    2026 to 2029

    With approximately 40% financed through debt, primarily at the utilities.

    Quarterly cash dividend
    $0.285Nearly 5% increase
    Q1 2026

    Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.285 per share to be paid on April 1 to shareowners of record as of March 10.

    Annualized dividend
    $1.14
    2026

    Resulting in an annualized dividend of $1.14 per share.

    EPS CAGR
    7%
    Past 3 years

    Over that time period, we achieved a 7% EPS CAGR.

    PPL Electric average monthly residential bill increase
    $68
    Past 5 years

    PPL Electric's average monthly residential bill has increased by about $68, with approximately $50 of that increase coming from energy supply costs alone.

    Energy supply cost contribution to bill increase
    $50
    Past 5 years

    Approximately $50 of that increase coming from energy supply costs alone.

    Energy supply cost increase
    roughly 200%
    Since December 2020

    Since December of 2020, energy supply costs have increased by roughly 200%.

    Kentucky residential bill increases
    5% to 11% range
    After ~5 years without base rate increases

    Residential bill increases were in the 5% to 11% range after roughly 5 years without base rate increases.

    Capital investment funded by O&M savings
    $1.4 billion
    Since 2022

    The $170 million of total O&M savings that we've achieved has helped to fund approximately $1.4 billion of capital investment without incremental pressure on customer bills.

    Kentucky rate case annual revenue increase
    $233 million
    Annual

    The commission approved an aggregate increase of approximately $233 million in annual electric and gas revenues.

    Kentucky allowed ROE
    9.775%35 bps higher than previously approved
    Current

    The KPSC approved allowed ROEs of 9.775% for both utilities.

    Kentucky allowed ROE (capital-related mechanisms)
    9.675%32.5 bps higher than previously approved
    Current

    With 9.675% for our capital-related mechanisms.

    Rhode Island annual electric and gas ISR plans
    $350 million
    Annual

    We also filed our annual electric and gas ISR plans in late December totaling about $350 million.

    Competitive transmission projects awarded (PPL Electric)
    $600 million
    Last year

    Last year, we were awarded almost $600 million of competitive transmission projects in our PPL Electric service territory.

    PJM emergency auction generation potential
    6 to 7 gigawatts
    Future

    We estimate the auction, if it comes to fruition, could produce about 6 to 7 gigawatts.

    Holding company to total debt ratio
    below 25%
    Throughout the plan period

    Maintaining a holding company to total debt ratio below 25%.

    Ongoing earnings
    $1.81
    FY25

    We achieved ongoing earnings of $1.81 per share.

    Ongoing earnings growth
    7.1%
    FY25 vs prior year

    7.1% growth from our prior year results and in line with the midpoint of our forecast.

    Ongoing earnings improvement
    $0.12
    FY25 vs FY24

    Excluding special items, our 2025 ongoing earnings were $1.81 per share, an improvement of $0.12 and in line with expectations.

    Rhode Island segment decrease vs forecast
    $0.06
    FY25

    When compared to our 2025 forecast, the Rhode Island segment decreased by $0.06 per share due to several true-ups and higher operating costs.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt16% to 18%%
    Retail sales growth
    Regulatory rate base growth10.3%%
    Rto market structure review
    New gas generation builds upgrades
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas25.2 gigawattsGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    8
    PA Data Center Pipeline (advanced stages)25.2 gigawattsQ4 FY25

    Up 23% since last quarterly update

    Projects have executed agreements and meaningful financial commitments.

    PA Data Center Pipeline (under ESAs)at least 10 gigawattsEnd of Q1 2026
    PA Data Center Pipeline (under construction)5 gigawattsQ4 FY25

    Consistent with last update

    KY Data Center Pipeline (potential new load)more than 9 gigawattsQ4 FY25

    Through the early 2030s.

    KY Data Center Pipeline (data centers)exceeds 8 gigawattsQ4 FY25
    KY Data Center Pipeline (highly active requests)4 gigawattsQ4 FY25
    KY Data Center Pipeline (under construction)500 megawattsQ4 FY25
    KY Advanced Manufacturing & other non-data center requests1.1 gigawattsQ4 FY25

    Up about 150 megawatts from prior update

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    BlackstoneJoint Venture

    Strategic partnership to build, own, and operate new electric generating stations to directly power data centers. Securing strategic land parcels and natural gas capacity. Evolved generation solutions to include alternate technologies for faster online deployment (late 2028/2029) in addition to combined cycle units (early 2030s).

    Capital programs

    1
    Multi-year Capital Investment Planunderway$23 billion
    Period spend: $4.4 billion
    Spent to date: $1 billion of equity already executed in 2025
    Funding: ~50% cash flow from operations, ~40% debt, ~$3 billion equity
    Start: 2026

    Benefit: Estimated rate base CAGR of 10.3%

    Updated plan for 2026-2029, up from $20 billion in prior plan. Includes $1.3 billion for PA data center development and reliability, $700 million for KY system hardening and smart grid, and $800 million for electric distribution in PA and KY. Remaining equity to be issued is $2 billion.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Kentucky regulatory outcome on earnings sharing mechanismImmediate impact on regulatory strategy

    Proposed earnings sharing mechanism not approved

    Mitigation: Reassessing timing of next Kentucky rate case.

    Rising energy supply costs in PJMOngoing

    Increased by ~200% since Dec 2020, contributing $50 to a $68 average monthly residential bill increase in PA.

    Mitigation: Supporting new generation buildout through Blackstone JV, advocating for legislation allowing utilities to enter long-term resource adequacy agreements and own generation, investing in robust transmission grid.

    Data center project delays in PennsylvaniaNear-term

    Projects pushed out slightly.

    Mitigation: ESAs include strong customer protections (prepayments, credit support, minimum load requirements) to shift financial risk to developers.

    Higher interest expenseOngoing

    Partially offset benefits from capital investments and lower O&M.

    Mitigation: Maintaining strong credit metrics (16-18% FFO to debt, holding company to total debt below 25%), opportunistic equity issuance through ATM program and other equity-like financing structures.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Inquired about the progress of settlement discussions, potential sticky points, and the significance of the one-day hearing, as well as the broader implications of Governor Shapiro's consumer-focused remarks.

    Management stated that settlement discussions are active and normal, with the main focus of the hearing being data center impact on affordability. They feel confident in their filing regardless of settlement. They acknowledged the state's constructive stance on utilities and economic growth, emphasizing that the core issue of affordability stems from generation supply not keeping pace with demand in PJM, driving up energy supply costs.

    I think the state overall continues to be constructive despite some of the comments that we may have heard that might suggest otherwise.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Vincent Sorgi

    4 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Kentucky Regulatory Outcomes

    The Kentucky Public Service Commission approved an aggregate increase of approximately $233 million in annual electric and gas revenues, aligning with the stipulation. Allowed ROEs were set at 9.775% for both utilities, representing a 35 and 32.5 basis points increase respectively from previously approved levels. The commission also approved a pilot generation recovery mechanism for new generation and energy storage projects, and an extremely high load factor tariff designed to protect existing customers from large data center loads. However, the proposed earnings sharing mechanism, tied to an agreement to stay out of rate cases through mid-2028, was not approved, leading PPL to reassess the timing of📎 its next Kentucky rate case.

    02

    Pennsylvania Rate Case Progress

    PPL is advancing its Pennsylvania rate case, with evidentiary hearings concluded in one day, primarily focusing on the impact of data centers on customer affordability. The company is actively working towards a settlement with intervenors but remains confident in the strength of its case if full litigation is necessary. The case balances PPL Electric's need for critical distribution system and IT investments to maintain reliability and customer service with customer protections and affordable rates. A decision is expected in June 2026, with new rates effective July 1, 2026.

    03

    Rhode Island Regulatory Updates

    Rhode Island Energy filed its first base rate request since 2017, seeking a 2-year phased increase aligned with the cost of delivering safe, reliable energy, supporting infrastructure improvements and affordability programs. This includes a redesigned low-income rate offering deeper targeted support without raising costs for other customers. A decision is expected in summer 2026, with new rates effective September 1, 2026. Annual electric and gas ISR plans totaling about $350 million were also filed in late December, with a PUC decision expected by the end of March. PPL remains committed to reaching a new hold harmless settlement to provide meaningful near-term rate relief to customers.

    04

    Data Center Pipeline Expansion

    PPL Electric Utility's service territory continues to see rapid growth in data center interconnection requests, with projects in advanced stages now totaling approximately 25.2 gigawatts, up 23% since the last quarterly update. At least 10 gigawatts are expected to be under ESAs by the end of Q1, with 5 gigawatts remaining under construction. In Kentucky, the economic development pipeline reflects more than 9 gigawatts of potential new load through the early 2030s, with data centers exceeding 8 gigawatts and about 4 gigawatts considered highly active. The development pipeline also includes 1.1 gigawatts of advanced manufacturing and other non-data center requests, up about 150 megawatts from the prior update. This robust interest validates long-term generation planning and recent CPCN approvals in Kentucky.

    05

    O&M Efficiency and Affordability Initiatives

    PPL achieved $170 million in run rate O&M savings by the end of 2025 from its 2021 baseline, outperforming its target by $20 million and reaching it a year early. Approximately $100 million of these savings benefited Kentucky customers, directly reducing rate case increases. The company projects O&M growth of approximately 1% annually in its updated plan, well below inflation, driven by continued grid hardening, smart grid technologies, and the deployment of AI across customer service, grid operations, and back-office functions. Continued economic development and targeted customer assistance programs also support affordability.

    06

    PJM Generation Supply and Blackstone JV

    PPL highlights a worsening generation supply situation in PJM, where energy supply costs have increased by roughly 200% since December 2020, contributing $50 to a $68 increase in average monthly residential bills in Pennsylvania. To address this, PPL formed a strategic partnership with Blackstone to build, own, and operate new electric generating stations to directly power data centers. The company is also actively supporting proposed Pennsylvania legislation that would allow regulated utilities to enter long-term resource adequacy agreements with independent power producers and, where appropriate, build and own generation. The joint venture has secured strategic land parcels and natural gas capacity, and is evolving its generation solutions to meet hyperscalers' changing needs, including alternative technologies for faster deployment.

    07

    Economic Development and Large Load Growth

    PPL's service territories are experiencing robust economic development, including a $3.5 billion advanced manufacturing investment by Eli Lilly in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and almost $0.5 billion of new investments from major manufacturers like Toyota, Foxconn, GE, and Anthro Energy in Kentucky. This continued strong interest from both data centers and manufacturing customers validates the company's long-term generation planning. Under existing tariff structures, incremental load growth, including large data centers, improves system utilization and helps moderate costs for existing customers, contributing to overall customer affordability.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.