Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

How does RBI view comparable sales evolution for 2026, particularly for Tim Hortons and Burger King? What are the next steps for Tim Hortons' PM expansion given strong beverage growth but modest PM food growth?

Management expects a similar consumer environment in 2026 to 2025, with a focus on fundamentals. Tim Hortons saw strong cold beverage growth, reaching its highest Q4 mix ever, and plans more innovation. PM food expansion is viewed as a long-term initiative, with continued menu refinement and operational focus to build habits beyond morning dayparts.

“I think we've always viewed our efforts to move into the PM as a long-term initiative, something that will take a lot of years.”

asked by Danilo Gargiulo · answered by Joshua Kobza

What is driving the strong momentum in the International segment, particularly for Burger King and Popeyes? Is it a healthier macro backdrop, market share gains, or bottom-up execution?

The momentum is attributed to a combination of factors: supportive structural market tailwinds (e.g., growing middle class), well-positioned brands with modern assets and digital enablement, and strong local operator partnerships. EMEA and Asia Pacific markets, including France, Japan, and Turkey, showed consistent strength and outperformance against competitors.

“I think it's a bit of all of the above. I'll walk through a few pieces. I think the backdrop has been decent in a lot of our markets, especially the European and Asia Pacific markets.”

asked by Brian Bittner · answered by Joshua Kobza

Can you contrast the consumer trends and market strength in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, especially given strong European fast-food performance versus CPG commentary?

Western European markets (France, Spain, Germany, Great Britain) showed consistent positive performance in low to mid-single digits. Canada also delivered a good result with around 3% same-store sales, with broad-based positive sales growth across all dayparts and categories, indicating a healthy business in a mature market.

“So if you look across the big Western European markets, so places like France, Spain, Germany, Great Britain, every one of those markets was positive, low to mid-single digits.”

asked by David Palmer · answered by Joshua Kobza

What are the opportunities for Burger King U.S. growth and share gains in 2026, and what is the current franchisee sentiment? Does this impact confidence in Carrols refranchising?

Management is proud of the fundamental work done on operations, franchisee base, and remodels. The success of the SpongeBob promotion indicates readiness to elevate the brand and attract new guests. Franchisees are excited about the direction, and the refranchising of Carrols restaurants is ahead of schedule, exceeding 100 units in 2025, reflecting strong interest from local owner-operators.

“The partnership with the franchisees is working because they know that we are focused on their success. We've been doing that now for a number of years.”

asked by Dennis Geiger · answered by J. Doyle

Given the slowdown in Popeyes U.S. results, what lessons have been learned, and what will be done differently? Should the company reconsider new unit expansion or even contraction until the brand and operating platform are in a better place?

Management acknowledges weaker performance and has changed leadership. Key learnings focus on improving operational consistency and narrowing marketing/product focus back to core offerings like bone-in chicken, tenders, and sandwiches. While one large franchisee filed for bankruptcy, the rest of the system is healthy, and the company expects continued unit growth, aiming to replicate past success in growing the brand.

“I think if I would break down the learnings into 2 simple buckets that shape what we're going to be focused on, one is making more progress on the consistency of operations.”

asked by John Ivankoe · answered by Joshua Kobza

Is there still opportunity to improve Tim Hortons Canada's speed of service? Can you discuss efforts to grow the loyalty program membership?

Speed of service has improved, particularly in the morning, and remodels are helping to enhance back-of-house efficiency. Significant opportunity remains in improving PM speed of service. The loyalty program has 7 million active members, accounting for 33% of sales, with members spending over 50% more. A new loyalty partnership with Canadian Tire is expected to further drive adoption and engagement.

“What we're seeing is about 33% of sales came from loyalty members in 2025, which is incredibly strong 7 million active members, and our active members are spending more than 50% sort of post-joining versus pre-joining and they visit more often than nonmembers.”

asked by Brian Mullan · answered by J. Doyle

How confident is RBI in achieving 8% AOI growth in 2026, and is it contingent on reaching 3% system same-store sales, given the expected similar consumer backdrop?

RBI is confident in delivering a fourth consecutive year of 8% AOI growth, supported by strong top-line and flow-through. The company typically targets around 3% same-store sales, which, combined with unit growth, leads to ~6% system-wide sales. Operating leverage from G&A growing slower than the top line and the return of Burger King China royalties to the P&L contribute to the AOI target.

“Typically, kind of as we think about budgeting for the year and our targets for the year, we do target around that 3% same-store sales level, which is kind of consistent with our algorithm.”

asked by Andrew Charles · answered by Sami Siddiqui

Beyond beef price normalization, are there organic cost efficiencies or margin opportunities to strengthen 4-wall economics in 2026?

The company leverages its multi-branded scale for procurement, digital contracts, and operational efficiencies, sharing best practices across brands to drive franchisee profitability. While beef prices are expected to normalize closer to H2 2026, the primary focus for Burger King is growing sales profitably through initiatives like enhancing the Whopper and family partnerships, which drive profitable traffic.

“The one other thing I would add, Sami, is the best possible way for us to grow the franchise profitability of Burger King is through growing sales in a profitable manner.”

asked by Christine Cho · answered by Joshua Kobza

Are new unit paybacks where they should be in North America for unit growth brands, and how do they compare to peers?

New unit paybacks are strong, especially for 'A' operators who have higher profitability. Tim Hortons Canada offers compelling paybacks of around 3 years due to strong 4-wall profitability (CAD 300,000) and corporate real estate contributions. Firehouse Subs, with its scalable in-line development model, also sees paybacks of 3-3.5 years. Burger King and Popeyes 'A' operators also achieve strong returns despite average profitability challenges.

“When you think about the paybacks, the franchisees typically are looking at investing in FF&E equipment packages and with us sitting on the head lease that typically creates very strong paybacks on the order of like 3 years in Canada.”

asked by Brian Harbour · answered by Sami Siddiqui